August 2012: Earth's 4th warmest August on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

August 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated August 2012 the 6th warmest on record. August 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. August 2012 was the 330th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of August in his August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Canada, Southeast Europe, and Western Asia. Central Russia was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average--the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event--since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent as of September 18, 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low years, in millions of square kilometers. This year's extent is far below any previous year, and is close to its minimum for the year. Satellite measurements of ice extent began in 1979. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Arctic sea ice falls to all-time record low during August
August 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest August extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set (see the comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs here.) Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 18, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The amount of open ocean exposed this September compared to September 1980 is about 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. The ice extent is close to its minimum for the year, and should start in increase within the next week or two, but that open water over the Arctic will provide a significant amount of heat and moisture to the atmosphere over the next few months that will significantly alter weather patterns. One possible impact may be an increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events during fall and winter.


Video 1. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 – September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. Source: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Nadine approaching the Azores
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine is headed northeastwards on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the northwestern Azores. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to weaken on Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models predict Nadine will move southwestward over warmer waters, and it could become fully tropical again.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands yesterday (92L) has diminished, and this wave is no longer a threat to develop. None of the reliable computers models is showing development of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through September 24.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 250 - 200

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

250. bwi
Quoting PlazaRed:


Time to start rolling out the Phrase:-
"Scientists failed to take into account?!"

I wonder how long it will be before the mainstream media start to question what is and might be going on and going to happen with the Arctic predicament?


When Santa and the elves drown.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


American Meterological Society Glossary: recurvature

Good link:
"recurvature—The change in direction of tropical cyclone movement from westward and poleward to eastward and poleward, under the influence of midlatitude westerlies"

I take that to mean that a storm literally reverses direction from west to east, rather than merely curving from a straight track to poleward. If I'm not reading this wrong, recurve is only used correctly when a storm actually recurves over it's former track. Curve would be more correctly used when a storm...well...curves, rather than recurve.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
HEY NCSTORM..is this anywhere near you??..this is the third warning for the same area..TORNADO..................140
WFUS52 KMHX 182058
TORMHX
NCC049-182130-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0013.120918T2058Z-120918T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
458 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER LIMA...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF NEW BERN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING HOPE...
CAYTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


I was just about to post that..New Bern is about two hours from me...evidently there is a tornado that has been spotted



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
the models are still in agreement with possible development in the central atlantic that heads east and then gets turn north..

12Z Euro



It'll probably be extra tropical/sub tropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXHuRRicanE:


"If" a tornado were to form in that squall line, it would be a short lived rain-rapped one.
I wasn't expecting a really big outbreak today in the first place.. but who am I to have a forecast :)
i dunno, in NC there was 3 tornado reports already, its a serious storm, not just the usual rain etc...be safe out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59074
The Navy also covers "recurver" in the ATCF TROPICAL CYCLONE DATABASE, section 4.1


4.1 DESCRIPTIVE DATA



These data include storm name, basin of origin, sub-basin of origin, storm number, year of origin, track type, beginning date, ending date, number of basins entered, storm state (e.g., warning or archive), and the specific basins entered.

Note: Track type is a subjective classification of the storm as a straight mover, recurver, or odd mover. A straight storm path is one which maintained a somewhat constant heading between 250o - 360o. A storm is considered a recurver if it turned from an initial path toward the west or northwest to a path toward the northeast. An odd moving storm, therefore, is one which did not fit in the other two categories or contained loops in the track. ).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HEY NCSTORM..is this anywhere near you??..this is the third warning for the same area..TORNADO..................140
WFUS52 KMHX 182058
TORMHX
NCC049-182130-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0013.120918T2058Z-120918T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
458 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER LIMA...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF NEW BERN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING HOPE...
CAYTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:


"If" a tornado were to form in that squall line, it would be a short lived rain-rapped one.
I wasn't expecting a really big outbreak today in the first place.. but who am I to have a forecast :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the models are still in agreement with possible development in the central atlantic that heads east and then gets turn north..

12Z Euro



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:21 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Condition: Light Rain
Pressure: 29.54 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 57.0°F
Dewpoint: 53.8°F
Humidity: 88 %
Wind: NW 24 gust 31 mph




wait till behind the front is it ever cooler

feels like fall for sure

tonights lows may fall into 41°F to 43°F range
for my area
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59074
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's not incorrect to say that Irene curved away from the Northeast, because that's what the storm did. But Irene was initially on a westbound trajectory, and she recurved as she moved into higher latitudes. Again, a recurve is a turning away from. Look at it this way: when a baseball pitcher throws a curve ball, it swerves away from the batter. But if that same pitcher could somehow throw a recurve ball, that ball would come back toward the pitcher after it crossed the plate. (Making him or her a very highly-paid major leaguer, no doubt.)


This is exactly my understanding of this concept as well. The storm (or ball, other object, etc.) moves a direction then makes a curve and ends up travelling in the direction from which it came to begin with. Thus, the "re-" Another analogy is the motion of a boomerang.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
452 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NCZ029-044-079-182145-
GREENE-MARTIN-PITT-
452 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PITT...MARTIN AND GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 452 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FOUNTAIN TO SHINE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF FARMVILLE TO 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GOLDSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CASTORIA...
FARMVILLE...MAURY...BRUCE...HASSELL...HAMILTON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Sea ice models have failed us...


Time to start rolling out the Phrase:-
"Scientists failed to take into account?!"

I wonder how long it will be before the mainstream media start to question what is and might be going on and going to happen with the Arctic predicament?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TS Lane:

going going ....
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59074
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
443 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NJC041-PAC011-077-089-095-182115-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0224.000000T0000Z-120918T2115Z/
WARREN NJ-BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
443 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHAMPTON...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE...EASTERN LEHIGH...EAST CENTRAL
BERKS AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM STORMVILLE TO BATH TO ALBURTIS...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTH OF EASTON TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ALLENTOWN TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALLENTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
STROUDSBURG...PEN ARGYL...NAZARETH AND EMMAUS BY 450 PM EDT...
MARSHALLS CREEK...ROSETO...EASTLAWN GARDENS AND EAST STROUDSBURG BY
455 PM EDT...
SHAWNEE AND STOCKERTOWN BY 500 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT
FOR THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I see they shrunk the moderate risk area..




I was waiting for that. It seems like this cold front really needed the boost from the Gulf low and it didn't get further north than N Carolina before going east. Shear was the only thing storms had going for them further north, with relatively low instability and CAPE. It seems to have been a good rain producer for most of the east coast but so far has produced only nuisance type street flooding.

The sun is out in central AL, with a temperature of 82 and dewpoint of 69. It looks like a skinny line of showers is developing along the cold front as it advances down from N Alabama. Maybe we can squeeze out some more showers before we finally get some very welcome cooler and drier air. We've only had .36 inches of rain and are still far below normal for the year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A simple interpretation of curve/recurve IMO. The southern track a curve, the northern a recurve.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
445 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

MDC005-510-182230-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0077.000000T0000Z-120918T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BALTIMORE MD-BALTIMORE CITY MD-
445 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR
BALTIMORE CITY AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN HAD MOVED OUT OF THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS
AREAS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE CITY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT URBAN FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BALTIMORE
CITY AND IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. FLOODWATER USUALLY IS
DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE WHEN
FLOODED ROADS ARE ENCOUNTERED...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well it was nothing serious.Surely wasn't like last events.Just heavy rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NYZ032-033-038>040-082-182130-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-
433 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

HAMILTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...
HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 427 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50
MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BROWN TRACT POND CAMPGROUND BY 435 PM EDT
CEDARVILLE...RAQUETTE LAKE AND ILION BY 440 PM EDT
GOLDEN BEACH CAMPGROUND...MOHAWK AND HERKIMER BY 445 PM EDT
FORKED LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 450 PM EDT
LITTLE FALLS AND JORDANVILLE BY 455 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW
YORK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
arctic will be ice free
during summer of 2015
3 years from now
from mid july till mid sept
will be no ice at all


Scary thing to me Keeper. Who knows what that may do to
weather patterns(eg jet stream) and even ocean currents
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 692
TORNADO WARNING
NCC049-182100-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0012.120918T2033Z-120918T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTH OF COVE CITY...OR 13 MILES WEST OF NEW
BERN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUSCARORA...
CLARK...JASPER...
LIMA...BELLAIR...
ASKINS...ERNUL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF CAUGHT IN A VEHICLE...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE
AND STAY PUT LEAVING YOUR SEAT BELT ON...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND
LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GREENE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HUNTER...
ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING FROM REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WINDHAM AND
PRATTSVILLE

RADAR ESTIMATES AND ACTUAL GAGE READINGS INDICATING 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF GREENE AND MAINLY WESTERN
ULSTER COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

RAPID RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV...ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY .GOV OR TWITTER
@NWSALBANY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

I don't think "recurve" is any kind of official weather term. It's just used as shorthand for a storm that was progressing in one direction curving off into another direction. "Curve" would certainly be more correct for what actually happens with a CV hurricane curving north and out to sea.


American Meterological Society Glossary: recurvature
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
arctic will be ice free
during summer of 2015
3 years from now
from mid july till mid sept
will be no ice at all
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59074
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE WHEELS ARE QUICKLY COMING OFF NOW THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND
THE SYSTEM BARELY MEETS THE CONVECTIVE CRITERION FOR CLASSIFICATION
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A RESULT. THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF
RAPID WEAKENING AS IT INGESTS COOL...STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST AND
SOUTH...AND ALSO MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS...WHICH SOON MAKE LANE JUST A FADED MEMORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/7. WHAT APPEARED TO BE A
SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ACTUALLY JUST
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHEARING AWAY...AND THOSE FEATURES
ARE NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOME
RESIDUAL CONVECTION...AND LANE SHOULD BECOME A MORE SHALLOW VORTEX
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT IS STEERED WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HFIP TV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 20.6N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 21.1N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 21.4N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 21.4N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 21.2N 134.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 20.8N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Folks PLEASE stayed tuned to your LOCAL weather warnings up and down the east coast..tornado's,flooding, hail the whole nine yards...please stay safe out there, this is a dangerous front all along the east coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTH OF COVE CITY...OR 13 MILES WEST OF NEW
BERN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUSCARORA...
CLARK...JASPER...
LIMA...BELLAIR...
ASKINS...ERNUL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF CAUGHT IN A VEHICLE...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE
AND STAY PUT LEAVING YOUR SEAT BELT ON...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND
LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look how far the moisture extends:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8291
Quoting stoormfury:
i made that point last about this recurve thing i also said that for anthing to recurve it had to curve first. some one on this blog said it was a met jargon.last year IRENE curved away from the northeast. it did not recurve. even the top met persons in the USA USE THIS CURVATURE TO MEAN RECURVATURE. WHAT A MIS CONCEPTION.
It's not incorrect to say that Irene curved away from the Northeast, because that's what the storm did. But Irene was initially on a westbound trajectory, and she recurved as she moved into higher latitudes. Again, a recurve is a turning away from. Look at it this way: when a baseball pitcher throws a curve ball, it swerves away from the batter. But if that same pitcher could somehow throw a recurve ball, that ball would come back toward the pitcher after it crossed the plate. (Making him or her a very highly-paid major leaguer, no doubt.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cape Verde season is dead,so the Central Atlantic.Now what?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I see they shrunk the moderate risk area..





thats how it should of been in the first place.. its more of a wind-rain event
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS Lane:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8291
I have to go to drivers ed, bye everyone. Stay safe those who are in storms paths and I'll be home in a few hours.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
I see they shrunk the moderate risk area..



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
207. Skyepony (Mod)
Sea ice models have failed us...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting opal92nwf:

I mean more to emphasize the fact that only two storms have made it to the Caribbean without being sucked out to sea unlike a year like 2008, and that the coastlines have been spared from a destructive major hurricane Cape Verde storm such as Ivan in 2004 or maybe like Floyd in 1999.

And that's a good thing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34167
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59074
Quoting Skyepony:
truly amasing knowing that all inside that orange line should be covered in ice
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59074
i made that point last about this recurve thing i also said that for anthing to recurve it had to curve first. some one on this blog said it was a met jargon.last year IRENE curved away from the northeast. it did not recurve. even the top met persons in the USA USE THIS CURVATURE TO MEAN RECURVATURE. WHAT A MIS CONCEPTION.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry to hear that.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Numerous showers all around, but anything reaching my island. That's kind of embarrassing

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caribnewsman:


This is probably a stupid question, but does anyone know why they call it a "recurve" when it is curving north for the first time? Why don't cyclones just curve out to sea instead?
The "re" in "recurve" isn't a prefix meaning "again" as in "repay" or "redial". The word "recurve" is more like "reject"; it's a word in and of itself. And it means "turning away". The tips of a recurve bow turn away from the archer; a tropical cyclone in the northern hemisphere turns away from its original westward direction. A "curve" is just a turn; a "recurve" is a turning away.

Simple, no? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
200. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 250 - 200

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
86 °F
Mostly Cloudy

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto