August 2012: Earth's 4th warmest August on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

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August 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated August 2012 the 6th warmest on record. August 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. August 2012 was the 330th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of August in his August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Canada, Southeast Europe, and Western Asia. Central Russia was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average--the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event--since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent as of September 18, 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low years, in millions of square kilometers. This year's extent is far below any previous year, and is close to its minimum for the year. Satellite measurements of ice extent began in 1979. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Arctic sea ice falls to all-time record low during August
August 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest August extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set (see the comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs here.) Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 18, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The amount of open ocean exposed this September compared to September 1980 is about 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. The ice extent is close to its minimum for the year, and should start in increase within the next week or two, but that open water over the Arctic will provide a significant amount of heat and moisture to the atmosphere over the next few months that will significantly alter weather patterns. One possible impact may be an increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events during fall and winter.


Video 1. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 – September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. Source: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Nadine approaching the Azores
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine is headed northeastwards on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the northwestern Azores. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to weaken on Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models predict Nadine will move southwestward over warmer waters, and it could become fully tropical again.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands yesterday (92L) has diminished, and this wave is no longer a threat to develop. None of the reliable computers models is showing development of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through September 24.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I know this has probably been asked, but has Portugal ever been hit by a Tropical Storm or Hurricane?




I'm pretty sure Vince hit Portugal as a TD or TS in 2005, and I remember a while back I think someone mentioned the NHC identifying a TS or hurricane hitting the country in their big project of going back over all the seasons.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7947
14L/TS/N/CX


ON APPROACH TO AZORES ISLANDS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting NativeSun:
The Arctic cie loss is due to slightly warmer air temps, but mostly it's due to water temps which are warmer due to the the warm AMO and in part the PDO.


Slightly warmer? Define slightly because the Arctic region is seeing the greatest rise in temps globally.
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I see we are having a discussion on the English language.

Some must of missed the memo that our language makes no sense.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



this is getting diculous.


You are bad.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26868
I know this has probably been asked, but has Portugal ever been hit by a Tropical Storm or Hurricane?



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What's up with the lack of a 5PM advisory on Nadine?

If you had bothered to read posts #284 and #285 before you posted, you would know the answer.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16302
Already posted I see.
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Quoting Grothar:


I don't know, but sometimes I write in different languages on the blogs and use different letters. If I go back to modify something, the special characters disappear.
Yeah, exactly the same problem that I have. It sure is annoying, I was wondering if there was some way around this problem.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
Quoting guygee:
Could somebody please "clue me in" on the character set type that this site uses. For example, if I do not modify my post the plus sign in those links above will stay, but if I do modify my post they disappear and I can never get them back.

If I link to those sites that have the plus sign in the url it does not work either.

The same thing happens when I use certain characters like the degree sign: 28° N 80° . If I modify then those babies are gone for good.

What's the trick? Anyone?

Same thing happens to all of us. I'm not sure what kind of native ASCII character set is used by the HTML code here, but it doesn't match up with most standard ASCII character sets.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16302
What's up with the lack of a 5PM advisory on Nadine?

Here's Lane's anyways.

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE WHEELS ARE QUICKLY COMING OFF NOW THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND
THE SYSTEM BARELY MEETS THE CONVECTIVE CRITERION FOR CLASSIFICATION
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A RESULT. THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF
RAPID WEAKENING AS IT INGESTS COOL...STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST AND
SOUTH...AND ALSO MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS...WHICH SOON MAKE LANE JUST A FADED MEMORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/7. WHAT APPEARED TO BE A
SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ACTUALLY JUST
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHEARING AWAY...AND THOSE FEATURES
ARE NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOME
RESIDUAL CONVECTION...AND LANE SHOULD BECOME A MORE SHALLOW VORTEX
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT IS STEERED WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HFIP TV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 20.6N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 21.1N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 21.4N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 21.4N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 21.2N 134.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 20.8N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7947
...Nadine moving north-northeastward with little change in strength...


summary of 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...35.2n 32.6w
about 365 mi...590 km WSW of the Azores
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...NNE or 30 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/h
minimum central pressure...990 mb...29.23 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

the portuguese Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the islands of Flores...corvo...faial...Pico...sao jorge...
graciosa...and Terceira in the Azores.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the islands of Flores...corvo...faial...Pico...sao jorge...
graciosa...and Terceira in the Azores.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was
located near latitude 35.2 north...longitude 32.6 west. Nadine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph...13 km/h...this
general motion should continue into Wednesday...but the motion is
likely to become slow and erratic by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles...370 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Surf...swells generated by Nadine are beginning to affect the
Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory...1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting Grothar:


Now you know what the term reblob is.






this is getting diculous.
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Quoting guygee:
Could somebody please "clue me in" on the character set type that this site uses. For example, if I do not modify my post the plus sign in those links above will stay, but if I do modify my post they disappear and I can never get them back.

If I link to those sites that have the plus sign in the url it does not work either.

The same thing happens when I use certain characters like the degree sign: 28° N 80° . If I modify then those babies are gone for good.

What's the trick? Anyone?


I don't know, but sometimes I write in different languages on the blogs and use different letters. If I go back to modify something, the special characters disappear.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26868
Quoting prcane4you:
Forgot who? Really my friend who cares about that forgotten storm.

Unless you happen to live in the Azores. They are probably paying attention.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16302
This Just in from NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center Facebook Page

An internet outage is preventing the 5 pm advisory on Tropical Storm Nadine from being posted to the NHC website. The advisory is available on external third-party websites and the key information is summarized below:

At 5 pm AST, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the following islands in the Azores: Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. Nadine is located about 365 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Maximum winds remain near 60 mph, and Nadine is moving north-northeastward at 8 mph. This motion is likely to continue into Wednesday, before becoming slow and erratic by Wednesday night. Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected within the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
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From their facebook page:

"An internet outage is preventing the 5 pm advisory on Tropical Storm Nadine from being posted to the NHC website. The advisory is available on external third-party websites and the key information is summarized below:

At 5 pm AST, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the following islands in the Azores: Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. Nadine is located about 365 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Maximum winds remain near 60 mph, and Nadine is moving north-northeastward at 8 mph. This motion is likely to continue into Wednesday, before becoming slow and erratic by Wednesday night. Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected within the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



The blog Blobologist has spoken.


Now you know what the term reblob is.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26868
In post 274, Quoting guygee:
Monthly Temperature Datasets since 1880
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GL B.Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/NH .Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/SH .Ts+dSST.txt
Could somebody please "clue me in" on the character set type that this site uses. For example, if I do not modify my post the plus sign in those links above will stay, but if I do modify my post they disappear and I can never get them back.

If I link to those sites that have the plus sign in the url it does not work either.

The same thing happens when I use certain characters like the degree sign: 28° N 80° . If I modify then those babies are gone for good.

What's the trick? Anyone?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
Quoting seminolesfan:
So first ya got tired, then you retired?


That would be difficult to refute, since I futed for so long.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26868
Quoting Grothar:
Recurve is a perfectly acceptable word and term in meteorology. Please let us not be dundant. I mean redundant. If one says something once that is called a peat. If it is said again it is a repeat.



The blog Blobologist has spoken.
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Same.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
EDIT: That's strange. The raw folder says 5pm but everything is from 11am.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
511 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH CENTRAL CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER CAYTON...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW BERN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDWARD...COX CROSSROADS...
BONNERTON...AURORA...
CORE POINT...
BAYVIEW...SOUTH CREEK...
RANSOMVILLE...SIDNEY CROSSROADS...
WINSTEADVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting Grothar:


lucky florida...
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Monthly Temperature Datasets since 1880
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GL B.Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/NH .Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/SH .Ts+dSST.txt
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26868
Quoting seminolesfan:
It actually is a met term with an official meaning; The change from moving westward and poleward to eastward and poleward...

I meant "offical" in the way recurve is often used here. A storm turning off its original track is curving. A storm turning back in the direction of the orginal track is recurving. Just a matter of semantics but it can get confusing.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16302
Recurve isn't really that tough of a concept in the realm of weather topics we discuss here.

Simply put...
Was traveling on a heading W of N,
Now traveling on a heading E of N,
It recurved!
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Numerous showers all around, but anything reaching my island. That's kind of embarrassing


When we look on the radar, I don't understand why the showers and the T-storms, well organised close to Antigua and Barbuda, dissipate when they arrive close to St Bart's St Maarten and Anguilla....WHY ???? We badly badly badly need HEAVY RAIN
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the NHC forgot Nadine.
Forgot who? Really my friend who cares about that forgotten storm.
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HERE WE GO


The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania...
south central Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...
this includes the city of Easton...
western Hunterdon County in northwest New Jersey...
southern Warren County in northwest New Jersey...
Bucks County in southeast Pennsylvania...
northeastern Chester County in southeast Pennsylvania...
this includes the city of West Chester...
Delaware County in southeast Pennsylvania...
Montgomery County in southeast Pennsylvania...
Philadelphia County in southeast Pennsylvania...
this includes the city of Philadelphia...

* until 600 PM EDT

* at 459 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending
from Hellertown to Spring Mount to 9 miles west of West Chester...
or along a line extending from Allentown to 21 miles east of
reading to 9 miles west of West Chester... and moving northeast at
50 mph.

The strongest winds may occur near the leading edge of the line.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
Gradyville... Swarthmore... Paoli and Nether Providence township
around 510 PM EDT...
Trout Lake... Newtown Square... Yeadon and Radnor township around 515
PM EDT...
Roxborough and Morris Park around 520 PM EDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This line of storms may contain little or no lightning.
Do not wait to hear thunder before taking cover. Seek shelter
immediately inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Please report hail or strong winds to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free... 1-877-633-6772... when you can do so safely.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT Tuesday evening
for Delaware and northeastern Maryland and New Jersey and eastern
Pennsylvania.


Lat... Lon 4090 7491 4034 7486 4034 7494 4029 7486
4010 7484 4007 7491 4007 7494 3999 7507
3991 7525 3984 7560 4021 7563 4054 7548
time... Mot... loc 2101z 228deg 49kt 4061 7539 4030 7551
4001 7574
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Quoting Grothar:
Recurve is a perfectly acceptable word and term in meteorology. Please let us not be dundant. I mean redundant. If one says something once that is called a peat. If it is said again it is a repeat.
So first ya got tired, then you retired?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the NHC forgot Nadine.


You think she will recurve?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26868
Recurve is a perfectly acceptable word and term in meteorology. Please let us not be dundant. I mean redundant. If one says something once that is called a peat. If it is said again it is a repeat.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26868
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gee..just more and more and more rain by me......
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till behind the front is it ever cooler

feels like fall for sure

tonights lows may fall into 41°F to 43°F range
for my area
S C IL expected to hit high 30s, slight chance of patchy frost even. Sure hope not, still some green soybeans out there, farmers have enough trouble with the corn crop.
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes and its ongoing, be safe up there..its been heavy rain on and off all day long around me, luckily not too much wind..so far


this event is supposed to last until 8pm tonight so I hope people dont let their guard down and think all is clear..
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 641
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NCC065-083-127-195-182200-
/O.EXT.KRAH.TO.A.0641.000000T0000Z-120918T2200Z/

TORNADO WATCH 641...PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTH CAROLINA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

EDGECOMBE HALIFAX NASH
WILSON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NASHVILLE...ROANOKE RAPIDS...
ROCKY MOUNT AND WILSON.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the NHC forgot Nadine.


Probably a glitch. The 2 PM TWO this afternoon came out an hour later.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14565
Quoting ncstorm:


I was just about to post that..New Bern is about two hours from me...evidently there is a tornado that has been spotted



yes and its ongoing, be safe up there..its been heavy rain on and off all day long around me, luckily not too much wind..so far
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I think the NHC forgot Nadine.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting sar2401:

I don't think "recurve" is any kind of official weather term. It's just used as shorthand for a storm that was progressing in one direction curving off into another direction. "Curve" would certainly be more correct for what actually happens with a CV hurricane curving north and out to sea.
It actually is a met term with an official meaning; The change from moving westward and poleward to eastward and poleward...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It'll probably be extra tropical/sub tropical.


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250. bwi
Quoting PlazaRed:


Time to start rolling out the Phrase:-
"Scientists failed to take into account?!"

I wonder how long it will be before the mainstream media start to question what is and might be going on and going to happen with the Arctic predicament?


When Santa and the elves drown.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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