August 2012: Earth's 4th warmest August on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

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August 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated August 2012 the 6th warmest on record. August 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. August 2012 was the 330th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of August in his August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Canada, Southeast Europe, and Western Asia. Central Russia was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average--the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event--since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent as of September 18, 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low years, in millions of square kilometers. This year's extent is far below any previous year, and is close to its minimum for the year. Satellite measurements of ice extent began in 1979. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Arctic sea ice falls to all-time record low during August
August 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest August extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set (see the comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs here.) Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 18, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The amount of open ocean exposed this September compared to September 1980 is about 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. The ice extent is close to its minimum for the year, and should start in increase within the next week or two, but that open water over the Arctic will provide a significant amount of heat and moisture to the atmosphere over the next few months that will significantly alter weather patterns. One possible impact may be an increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events during fall and winter.


Video 1. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 – September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. Source: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Nadine approaching the Azores
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine is headed northeastwards on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the northwestern Azores. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to weaken on Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models predict Nadine will move southwestward over warmer waters, and it could become fully tropical again.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands yesterday (92L) has diminished, and this wave is no longer a threat to develop. None of the reliable computers models is showing development of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through September 24.

Jeff Masters

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Big Rain coming for S FL!!

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

...NADINE GETTING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC....THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTHEAST TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
MOTION IS LIKELY TO BECOME SLOW AND ERRATIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14887
Quoting Grothar:



It was brutal in Fort Lauderdale today. It was so muggy, the police were stopping us and charging people steam bath charges.


Good evening sir!

Yea, the SW wind is brutal here too.

345; Man that reblob to the SW of Florida has exploded. Last thing we need here is more water, hope it moves easterly rather than NE and get the bulk south of Okeechobee Lake.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I'm in Jensen


North side of Hobe Sound. What a scorcher today.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


I'm in Jensen



It was brutal in Fort Lauderdale today. It was so muggy, the police were stopping us and charging people steam bath charges.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208



Link to animated.

Link

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Local Mets are saying we should get the heaviest rains around midnight. It has been overcast and fairly windy all day, with really light sprinkles of rain.

Evening all.
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Quoting LesBonsTemps:


Righto - One of the hottest days of the year in S. Fla. with temps well over 90 for several hours in coastal Martin County, and tomorrow is expected to be a couple degrees cooler but still above average - hardly a cold front. Most of what is going on now in S. Fla. is from remnants of 93L, it seems to me.


I'm in Jensen
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
We in NC got cheated

Personally I feel the MDT risk wasn't needed today but I'm not at the SPC.
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Thanks to all for the answers to the curve/recurve question and to StAugustineFl for the nice illustration!
Now an observation: It seems like "recurve" is mainly used in relation to Cape Verde storms that recurve before the Lesser Antilles. You really don't see or hear it being used when storms recurve in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
In practical usage, recurve seems to indicate - at least intuitively - that a storm is going to turn away before it reaches the Caribbean or CONUS. Once a tropical cyclone is in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, it's going to hit a land mass somewhere (unless it dissipates) so maybe that's why you don't hear is used much in the other cases.
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Vince, barely, made landfall in Spain as a TD.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
first cold front of the year for FL


91 Brrrrrr lol, south florida's time will come in a month or two.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
It was non-event here in NC... nothing more than heavy rain.

I didn't think today would be a big day, it could've but I figured it wouldn't.
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Big big rain coming now for me!!!!
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It was non-event here in NC... nothing more than heavy rain.
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I'm back, got a lake effect shower that had rain and small hail. NYC is under a severe thunderstorm warning for 60mph winds.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm pretty sure Vince hit Portugal as a TD or TS in 2005, and I remember a while back I think someone mentioned the NHC identifying a TS or hurricane hitting the country in their big project of going back over all the seasons.
Vince hit Spain not Portugal.
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warnings and watches
fall now as it pushes off the coast

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Quoting Naga5000:


The front has not moved through Florida yet. The temperature difference you see is from a day of rain and overcast skies with minimal daytime heating.


Righto - One of the hottest days of the year in S. Fla. with temps well over 90 for several hours in coastal Martin County, and tomorrow is expected to be a couple degrees cooler but still above average - hardly a cold front. Most of what is going on now in S. Fla. is from remnants of 93L, it seems to me.
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slow..

I guess everyone is having their

evening re past
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I also liked this part of the discussion:

THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF
RAPID WEAKENING



I will give lane a speeding ticket. And it most pay me $50000 for speeding and drunk driving
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Rain in WPB now!:)
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temps still falling and will for the rest of this evening into tonight and early morning

all the rain that fell today
has already dried up from the pavement
very cool irapid drying conditions behind front


Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:26 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Condition: Light Rainshower
Pressure: 29.62 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 1

Temperature: 55.9°F
Dewpoint: 47.5°F
Humidity: 73 %
Wind: WNW 20 gust 25 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Quoting guygee:
When I view the html source for this page it says it is UTF-8. I'll try a test with a few UTF-8 codes in brackets...testing...testing:
Edit-
LOL...characters showed up in the preview, but when I posted...nothing!

Yep, I've tried the same trick...didn't work for me either. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17318
Quoting popartpete:
They said it might be under better conditions in a few days...

Who's they? Any updates on former 92L were discontinued last night.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17318
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today is one of those bust days. It wasn't worth a Moderate risk. It was barely even worth a Slight risk. We have gotten 0 tornado reports, 0 hail reports, and only 46 wind reports...which is not hard to get with the storms passing over populated areas.

There has been some minor damage though, from flooding mainly. And some sporadic power outages.

As I wrote this morning, it was apparent that the remnants of 93L were moving more east than north. Without the extra instability of the Gulf air further north, I wasn't expecting anything other than what has occured. It appears the SPC was focued in on a marginal threat to begin with and didn't change their thinking until later this afternoon. There are still way too many watches up until 11:00 pm EDT that should be discontinued. I deal with this constantly in Skywarn. A watch gets issued and is allowed to run long after any real threat has passed. I wish the SPC and NWS would get on the stick and discontinue watches as rapidly as they issue them.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17318
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I also liked this part of the discussion:

THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF
RAPID WEAKENING




Lol. I wounder oh is winning the race
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Quoting Tazmanian:
00
WTPZ42 KNHC 182033
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE WHEELS ARE QUICKLY COMING OFF NOW


LOL on the nhc sould i call a told trck and have it told too the next gas so they can put the wheels back on


i send JFV the bill

I also liked this part of the discussion:

THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF
RAPID WEAKENING
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
00
WTPZ42 KNHC 182033
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE WHEELS ARE QUICKLY COMING OFF NOW


LOL on the nhc sould i call a told trck and have it told too the next gas so they can put the wheels back on


i send JFV the bill
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Quoting Grothar:


Now you know what the term reblob is.



They said it might be under better conditions in a few days...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I've been preaching that this would bust for days... It really didn't seem like a hard forecast.

Low instability, high wind shear days can sometimes produce significant Severe Weather. Today is just not one of those days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32804
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ah thanks, but I don't know if that is the storm being shown on the Wunderground Analog Map.
Vince hit in October so probably not.
Quoting guygee:
When I view the html source for this page it says it is UTF-8. I'll try a test with a few UTF-8 codes in brackets...testing...testing:
Edit-
LOL...characters showed up in the preview, but when I posted...nothing!
Haven't ever figured out a way to re(Lol)place degree or plus signs once a comment's been modified. You can fix certain things off a copy and paste, like apostrophes and quote marks, but those special ones are truly irreplaceable. Or maybe irrecurveable.

If you do figure it out, I hope you will let us all know.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today is one of those bust days. It wasn't worth a Moderate risk. It was barely even worth a Slight risk. We have gotten 0 tornado reports, 0 hail reports, and only 46 wind reports...which is not hard to get with the storms passing over populated areas.

There has been some minor damage though, from flooding mainly. And some sporadic power outages.

I've been preaching that this would bust for days... It really didn't seem like a hard forecast.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
first cold front of the year for FL


The front has not moved through Florida yet. The temperature difference you see is from a day of rain and overcast skies with minimal daytime heating.
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Quoting sar2401:

Same thing happens to all of us. I'm not sure what kind of native ASCII character set is used by the HTML code here, but it doesn't match up with most standard ASCII character sets.
When I view the html source for this page it says it is UTF-8. I'll try a test with a few UTF-8 codes in brackets...testing...testing:
Edit-
LOL...characters showed up in the preview, but when I posted...nothing!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What a mess...


Today is one of those bust days. It wasn't worth a Moderate risk. It was barely even worth a Slight risk. We have gotten 0 tornado reports, 0 hail reports, and only 46 wind reports...which is not hard to get with the storms passing over populated areas.

There has been some minor damage though, from flooding mainly. And some sporadic power outages.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32804
first cold front of the year for FL
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Quoting Grothar:


I don't know, but sometimes I write in different languages on the blogs and use different letters. If I go back to modify something, the special characters disappear.

Whats probably happening with the blog script, is that when you write the comment the character appears as a "special insert."A sort of art piece.
The base blog script my not have the special characters in it, so as when you modify the comment the blog script fonts are used in the re-post. ( Note the use of "Re" in re-post)
In order for the fonts to support all possible characters the font index would probably be too large.
Just a thought.
I would bet Nea knows, its his field with him being a writer.
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When composing a post, I use the decimal code for the degree sign, entered as 0176 on the number pad while holding down the Alt key. The HTML code for the degree sign is "& deg" with no space after the ampersand.

I'm guessing that when you compose with Alt plus 0176, and get the degree sign, it is converted to HTML when you submit the post. When you edit a post, it is converted back to plain text, and the code is not interpreted correctly. So you end up with a question mark in a black triangle indicating an unknown code, and you have to change those all of your triangles manually back to Alt 0176. At least, that's what works for me over at the Dr. Rood's climate change blog where I usually post.

Caveat - I am not a coder and do not compose in HTML, but I was a network administrator years ago and learned a bit about it back in the days when Grothar was merely old, not ancient.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I know this has probably been asked, but has Portugal ever been hit by a Tropical Storm or Hurricane?



At least one 2005 storm did. Vince. May have been another '05 storm in there also. I don't remember off the top of my head. (edit)Possibly more have hit over the years since subtropical storms have been named, but I do not know the specifics.
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What a mess...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
STRONG SQUALL

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55978
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm pretty sure Vince hit Portugal as a TD or TS in 2005, and I remember a while back I think someone mentioned the NHC identifying a TS or hurricane hitting the country in their big project of going back over all the seasons.
Ah thanks, but I don't know if that is the storm being shown on the Wunderground Analog Map.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
301. GTcooliebai
9:37 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Well I found this analog map, but I don't know which storm is it?



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
300. MAweatherboy1
9:36 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I know this has probably been asked, but has Portugal ever been hit by a Tropical Storm or Hurricane?




I'm pretty sure Vince hit Portugal as a TD or TS in 2005, and I remember a while back I think someone mentioned the NHC identifying a TS or hurricane hitting the country in their big project of going back over all the seasons.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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