August 2012: Earth's 4th warmest August on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

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August 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated August 2012 the 6th warmest on record. August 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. August 2012 was the 330th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of August in his August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Canada, Southeast Europe, and Western Asia. Central Russia was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average--the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event--since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent as of September 18, 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low years, in millions of square kilometers. This year's extent is far below any previous year, and is close to its minimum for the year. Satellite measurements of ice extent began in 1979. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Arctic sea ice falls to all-time record low during August
August 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest August extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set (see the comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs here.) Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 18, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The amount of open ocean exposed this September compared to September 1980 is about 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. The ice extent is close to its minimum for the year, and should start in increase within the next week or two, but that open water over the Arctic will provide a significant amount of heat and moisture to the atmosphere over the next few months that will significantly alter weather patterns. One possible impact may be an increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events during fall and winter.


Video 1. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 – September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. Source: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Nadine approaching the Azores
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine is headed northeastwards on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the northwestern Azores. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to weaken on Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models predict Nadine will move southwestward over warmer waters, and it could become fully tropical again.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands yesterday (92L) has diminished, and this wave is no longer a threat to develop. None of the reliable computers models is showing development of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through September 24.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting popartpete:
The Northeast storm in my area: First serving of hype, a side of hype, a second helping of hype, and for dessert: hype.


well
has it cool off yet
cause iam telling ya
there is a big difference
in the air mass very fall like
behind it at least here

had light to mod periods of rain for duration of the event
with gusty winds at times and right after passage not not as gusty now
will be light by midnight
perfect for valley frost maybe north east and nw of the city
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57016
Frost advisories up for parts of the Great Lakes, gonna be a cold night tonight.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7978
Quoting wxchaser97:

Getting to about 40F tonight, I still don't wear socks at night.

It's still 70F here, we're only going down to the mid 60s tonight as this weather system moves through... nasty.

Storms are getting closer to my area. Interestingly, they seem to be strengthening as they progress E/NE, especially the ones over CT and Long Island.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8107
Quoting wxchaser97:

Getting to about 40F tonight, I still don't wear socks at night.


i have a low tolerance for cold when it comes to my feet... however, last year, one PE it was 34 and i was sweating with no shirt on LOL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ATCF says Nadine is down to 45 knots.

AL, 14, 2012091900, , BEST, 0, 355N, 322W, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 200, 180, 180, 200, 1016, 400, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,

...Lane is down to 40 knots.

EP, 12, 2012091900, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1298W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 30, 1012, 120, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LANE, M,

Neither are looking good and Lane should be a remnant low in a couple days.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7978
City of Thunder Bay
4:00 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Frost warning for
City of Thunder Bay continued

Frost likely tonight.

A cold Arctic airmass has become established over Northern Ontario. Skies will clear this evening allowing temperatures to drop to the freezing mark or even a few degrees below. For areas west of Lake Superior, the greatest threat for frost will be late this evening as temperatures overnight will rise above freezing due to increasing cloud cover from an approaching low pressure system.

Tender plants should be protected or kept indoors if possible until the threat of frost has passed.

----------

Well looks like it will be a coooold night tonight. Already at 6C.
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Quoting weatherh98:


getting down to the low sixties tonight in louisiana, May have to pull out socks :) havent worn em in my sleep since february

Getting to about 40F tonight, I still don't wear socks at night.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7978
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 29.75 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 1

Temperature: 50.7°F
Dewpoint: 43.9°F
Humidity: 77 %
Wind: WNW 13 mph


temps still falling behind front
may bottom out at 40°F
or just below by sunrise

its gonna be coolest night of the season since march
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 29.75 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 1

Temperature: 50.7°F
Dewpoint: 43.9°F
Humidity: 77 %
Wind: WNW 13 mph


temps still falling behind front
may bottom out at 40°F
or just below by sunrise

its gonna be coolest night of the season since march
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 29.75 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 1

Temperature: 50.7°F
Dewpoint: 43.9°F
Humidity: 77 %
Wind: WNW 13 mph


temps still falling behind front
may bottom out at 40°F
or just below by sunrise

its gonna be coolest night of the season since march


getting down to the low sixties tonight in louisiana, May have to pull out socks :) havent worn em in my sleep since february
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The Northeast storm in my area: First serving of hype, a side of hype, a second helping of hype, and for dessert: hype.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This area of disturbed weather should be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook soon.



every time I see these disturbances they remind me of Hawaii...those forming that far south make it far west...
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 29.75 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 1

Temperature: 50.7°F
Dewpoint: 43.9°F
Humidity: 77 %
Wind: WNW 13 mph


temps still falling behind front
may bottom out at 40°F
or just below by sunrise

its gonna be coolest night of the season since march
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57016
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Storm labeled "GO" they forgot the R for Gro!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Looks like the storm that just went through was a gust front front storm from a Palm beach county storm... there is a another line moving in from the west. Thanks Keep that radar view shows it pretty well!
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Now that the season is winding down.....isnt it time for the Annual NHC Forecaster of the Year Award Nominations?

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57016
ATCF says Nadine is down to 45 knots.

AL, 14, 2012091900, , BEST, 0, 355N, 322W, 45, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 200, 180, 180, 200, 1016, 400, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,

...Lane is down to 40 knots.

EP, 12, 2012091900, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1298W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 30, 30, 1012, 120, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LANE, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33306
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Should have Invest 93E soon.



Looks like we would have Miriam in the coming days.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57016
moving your way Gro.... transformer just blew east of me.... nice blue light special went on (aka transformer blown)
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This area of disturbed weather should be mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook soon.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33306
Quoting Grothar:


I'm right near you. That is some lightning, isn't it?




YUP!!! Just had several hits very close and a power surge.... way big time..live by Powerline & Prospect
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's part of it. Really we've been feeling El Nino most of the season, at least a little bit. Some of it is just climatology too- we're at the point in the year where parts of the basin will shut down or become less favorable. We'll see though, if we get a shear drop, which is possible, we could still get a storm or two in the Caribbean.




Ok works for me
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
wicked strong storm coming thru Oakland Park (broward cty, just north of Fort Lauderdale)...NOW!!

Lightening everywhere, heavy rain,...


I'm right near you. That is some lightning, isn't it?


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Quoting Tazmanian:



may be. Where starting too feel el niño. Now?

That's part of it. Really we've been feeling El Nino most of the season, at least a little bit. Some of it is just climatology too- we're at the point in the year where parts of the basin will shut down or become less favorable. We'll see though, if we get a shear drop, which is possible, we could still get a storm or two in the Caribbean.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8107
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wicked strong storm coming thru Oakland Park (broward cty, just north of Fort Lauderdale)...NOW!!

Lightening everywhere, heavy rain,...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



may be. Where starting too feel el niño. Now?

No, Taz. We don't have an El Nino yet.

Wind shear is actually not that bad except for the Gulf...but that's because of the trough.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33306
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57016
Constant thunder and lightning in FLL. Atmosphere very unstable.


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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Boy, it's hostile out there right now:




may be. Where starting too feel el niño. Now?
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Quoting NativeSun:
Give it another 20 to 30 years and we will be screaming another ice age, cold PDO, cold AMO and the sun will be in or headed to a solar minimum. The CO2 in the atmosphere is not the driving force causing the ice to melt in the Nortern or Southern Hemisphere, it's the ocean currents, when there warm the ice melts and when there cold the ice builds.

Ocean currents are mechanisms by which the ocean/climate system redistributes heat around the planet. Ocean currents cannot create nor destroy heat. The appearance of the slight fluctuations on average global temperature reconstructions are not actual increases/decreases in total heat energy but instead is related to how and where this heat is measured.
Quoting NativeSun:
also as a whole the Earth is cooling as the CO2 levels rise.

There is no actual measure of earth's climate that supports this as an accurate statement.
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Boy, it's hostile out there right now:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8107
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
WHO

shrunk da

WU?

I closed and reopened and it is okay
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 644
Pretty good spin in the radar heading for the West Coast. Click 24 Animation.

Tampa NEXRAD
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
WHO

shrunk da

WU?




PRWEATHER CENTER did he sure dos not no How to post links I wish he try's them on his own blog be for posting them here on the main blog


If you poof him the pro sould be fix for you
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WHO

shrunk da

WU?
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Aaaaaarrrrrgh.... September 19th is

http://www.talklikeapirate.com/piratehome.html

day.
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never mind

There's a huge wave about to move off the the west African coast

http://sat24.com/en/wa
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Good evening sir!

Yea, the SW wind is brutal here too.

345; Man that reblob to the SW of Florida has exploded. Last thing we need here is more water, hope it moves easterly rather than NE and get the bulk south of Okeechobee Lake.


Somebody is going to get wet.

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Rainfallradar W-Europe


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Sat24.com provides realtime satellite images. The images provide an excellent
view on the clouds in the sky and an indication of the meteo weather
over the European continent.



The website provides for a specific zoom for
countries and regions like France , Germany , Netherlands ,
Spain
, Sweden and Scandinavia, the UK , Italia
, Greece , etc.


Especially in the Mediterranean countries like France,
Spain, Italia, Greece
and even large parts of Turkey, one can see
where the sun and the sunshine is going for the weather of
today.


The satellite images are a great instrument
to give us a peek from the sky on the climate surrounding the European
countries.
From the satellite images a clear view can be seen on
fires that normally occur in the summer season and volcano eruptions.
For Mobile: http://sat24.mobi is available





3 Days Rainfall Forecast

3 Days Rainfall Forecast

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Africa



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Oct. 11 a Western Caribbean storm tracking northeastwards towards South FL.:

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That is big snow on the 18Z GFS
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Big Rain coming for S FL!!

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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