August 2012: Earth's 4th warmest August on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

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August 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated August 2012 the 6th warmest on record. August 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. August 2012 was the 330th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of August in his August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Canada, Southeast Europe, and Western Asia. Central Russia was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average--the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event--since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent as of September 18, 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low years, in millions of square kilometers. This year's extent is far below any previous year, and is close to its minimum for the year. Satellite measurements of ice extent began in 1979. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Arctic sea ice falls to all-time record low during August
August 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest August extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set (see the comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs here.) Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 18, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The amount of open ocean exposed this September compared to September 1980 is about 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. The ice extent is close to its minimum for the year, and should start in increase within the next week or two, but that open water over the Arctic will provide a significant amount of heat and moisture to the atmosphere over the next few months that will significantly alter weather patterns. One possible impact may be an increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events during fall and winter.


Video 1. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 – September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. Source: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Nadine approaching the Azores
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine is headed northeastwards on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the northwestern Azores. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to weaken on Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models predict Nadine will move southwestward over warmer waters, and it could become fully tropical again.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands yesterday (92L) has diminished, and this wave is no longer a threat to develop. None of the reliable computers models is showing development of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through September 24.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sar2401:

I don't know the answer, Gro, but I was wondering the same thing. That's biggest chunk of ex-93L and it didn't spend all that much time over land or really produce enough weather to get rained out. I sort of doubt it, given how the Atlantic has been this year, but it bears watching.


Should be interesting to watch. It seems to have a lot of energy in it.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


42F here!!! *Shivers*

I actually had to break out the light windbreaker. I usually keep wearing that until it gets below 20F, then it's time to dig up the winter jacket. Don't even get me started on how cold it needs to be to bust out the legit winter coat, lol.

The cold front appears to be moving very slowly if at all, at least in Alabama. It has been humg up just south of the state line all afternoon. It's 57 in Huntsville and still 73 and humid down here in central AL. I hope that thing gets a move on so I can finally turn off the A/C. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14948
Quoting Grothar:


Very rough night for Long Island.. A bit rare to see a strengthening squall line at night.
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447. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Link to super long range CFS.

Link


thanks a lot
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Quoting Grothar:
Any chance this moves into the Atlantic and develops into something?


I don't know the answer, Gro, but I was wondering the same thing. That's biggest chunk of ex-93L and it didn't spend all that much time over land or really produce enough weather to get rained out. I sort of doubt it, given how the Atlantic has been this year, but it bears watching.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14948
445. j2008
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It gets to a point where the temperature gets so low you can't really make out a difference. I've been outside in -10F wind chills and +10F temperatures... I really can't tell the difference. Same thing with heat- Once it gets above 90F, you really can't tell a difference no matter how high it goes... It's just hot.
Haha I have to disagree, here in Arizona there is a definate difference between 90 and lets say 100. Once you have 100 degrees long enough, 90 starts to feel like a nice cool breeze.
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Any chance this moves into the Atlantic and develops into something?

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Quoting wxchaser97:

D
25 and I have a winter jacket on, imagine -20F with lower wind chills:)


Coldest I have knowingly been in was -30 wind chill in Colorado Springs...no idea what the 'actual' temp was...don't think it mattered when it was THAT cold! LOL My ex had a 64' Mustang, and the heater didn't work...so I sat with a squeegie soaked in anti-freeze and kept wiping the windshield with it when it got iced up every 5 min or so! LOL
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Quoting weatherh98:


60 isnt bad

48 and below is cold


I have found it greatly depends on the humidity! 48 and humid chills to the bone...but if it's dry it isn't bad at all...same all the way down to freezing.

Def autumnal feel in the air here today (though that would be outright wintry to most of you!!! LOL) But cool enough that when we got home, the thermostat on the heater in my daughters room had turned it on...didn't feel 'that' chilly! Dunno if I want the thought of winter heating bills already though!!
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http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/ 09/the-end-of-global-warming-how-to-save-the-earth -in-2-easy-steps/262418/

The End of Global Warming: How to Save the Earth in 2 Easy Steps


10 SEP 17 2012, 10:42 AM ET 113
The optimist's case for rescuing the planet

You may not believe me, but I have news about global warming: Good news, and better news.

Here is the good news. US carbon emissions are decreasing rapidly. We're down over 10% from our emissions peak in 2007. Furthermore, the drop isn't just a function of the Great Recession. Since 2010 our economy has been growing, but emissions have kept on falling. The reason? Natural gas. With the advent of "fracking" technology, the price of gas has plummeted far below that of coal, and as a result, essentially no new coal plants are being built. Although gas does release carbon, it only releases about half as much as coal for the same amount of electricity. This is why -- despite our failure to join the Kyoto Protocol or impose legal restrictions on CO2 -- the United States is now outpacing the rest of the developed world in reducing our contribution to global warming.

Now for the better news. A technology is in the pipeline that has the potential to eliminate CO2 emissions entirely. Solar power, long believed to be unworkably expensive, has actually been falling in cost at a steady exponential rate of 7 percent per year for the last three decades straight. Because of this "Moore's Law for solar", electricity from solar panels now costs less than twice as much as electricity from coal, and only about three times as much as electricity from gas. Furthermore, technologies now in the pipeline seem to ensure that the cost drop will continue.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 29.78 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 1

Temperature: 49.3°F
Dewpoint: 43.5°F
Humidity: 80 %
Wind: W 11 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767
To me, anything below 50F is cold.
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Cold: 50 with wind, 15 without.

Heat: I live in Florida, I can deal with it.
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Anything over 105F is hot and anything under 20F is cold. In my opinion anyways.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31983
The "bite" that the air gets when it dips below 32F is quite refreshing. Feels good in the lungs. Nice and dense.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Meet in the middle?

100 is Hot for you, not for me.
- Freezing is Cold for me, not for you.

:)


When it gets hotter than 100 I practically go into hibernation, I don't even want to move when it's that hot. I'd rather have 0F.
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To. Me any thing at or be low 32 is this cold.


Now any thing at or above 90 is hot and 100 and above is hot or hotter
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Fire Tornado (near Alice Springs, Australia)

BoingBoing.net

YouTube Video
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I laugh at people who think 32F is cold, winters get cold up here. On the other hand 100 here is very hot...

Meet in the middle?

100 is Hot for you, not for me.
- Freezing is Cold for me, not for you.

:)
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Quoting wxchaser97:

It is 55F here already, once the front comes through it will cool down over there.


42F here!!! *Shivers*

I actually had to break out the light windbreaker. I usually keep wearing that until it gets below 20F, then it's time to dig up the winter jacket. Don't even get me started on how cold it needs to be to bust out the legit winter coat, lol.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

C. Surprisingly. And I live in Texas. Nothing surprises me...

I laugh at those who say 100 is hot, Well. Try living it ALL DAMN SUMMER... Though I cringe at temperatures under 32 Degrees. So. Just the culture here I guess ;)

I laugh at people who think 32F is cold, winters get cold up here. On the other hand 100 here is very hot...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
934 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

* AT 932 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GILGO STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONG
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
AMITYVILLE...LINDENHURST...BABYLON...ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK...
CAPTREE STATE PARK...BAY SHORE...ISLIP...SAYVILLE...RONKONKOMA...
PATCHOGUE...HOLBROOK...DAVIS PARK AND BRENTWOOD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 7342 4085 7314 4074 7301 4072 7304
4072 7312 4069 7315 4070 7324 4065 7338
4067 7324 4064 7321 4066 7321 4066 7311
4071 7297 4070 7294 4062 7323 4063 7336
4061 7342
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 227DEG 47KT 4049 7352

$$

GOODMAN


Usually squall lines fall apart before they reach Long Island.. This one is doing the exact opposite. I hope my friends and family up there are aware of the situation.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It gets to a point where the temperature gets so low you can't really make out a difference. I've been outside in -10F wind chills and +10F temperatures... I really can't tell the difference. Same thing with heat- Once it gets above 90F, you really can't tell a difference no matter how high it goes... It's just hot.
LOLOLOLOL 90? 105 is the point at which it's like whatever
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

C. Surprisingly. And I live in Texas. Nothing surprises me...

I laugh at those who say 100 is hot, Well. Try living it ALL DAMN SUMMER... Though I cringe at temperatures under 32 Degrees. So. Just the culture here I guess ;)


Pretty good looking week ahead around this area :)

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

C. Surprisingly. And I live in Texas. Nothing surprises me...

I laugh at those who say 100 is hot, Well. Try living it ALL DAMN SUMMER... Though I cringe at temperatures under 32 Degrees. So. Just the culture here I guess ;)


It never feels like anything under 100 here during summer
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767
Quoting weatherh98:
Poll time.
As fall is upon us and hurricane season slowing down, heres the poll.
What would you consider the temperature that you begin to feel cold?

A 51-60
B41-50
C 31-40
D 30 and below

Ill say b

C. Surprisingly. And I live in Texas. Nothing surprises me...

I laugh at those who say 100 is hot, Well. Try living it ALL DAMN SUMMER... Though I cringe at temperatures under 32 Degrees. So. Just the culture here I guess ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
934 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

* AT 932 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GILGO STATE PARK...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONG
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
AMITYVILLE...LINDENHURST...BABYLON...ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK...
CAPTREE STATE PARK...BAY SHORE...ISLIP...SAYVILLE...RONKONKOMA...
PATCHOGUE...HOLBROOK...DAVIS PARK AND BRENTWOOD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 7342 4085 7314 4074 7301 4072 7304
4072 7312 4069 7315 4070 7324 4065 7338
4067 7324 4064 7321 4066 7321 4066 7311
4071 7297 4070 7294 4062 7323 4063 7336
4061 7342
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 227DEG 47KT 4049 7352

$$

GOODMAN
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7778
Quoting wxchaser97:

60F now= not so normal
25 and below is when it gets cold but not unbearable.

It gets to a point where the temperature gets so low you can't really make out a difference. I've been outside in -10F wind chills and +10F temperatures... I really can't tell the difference. Same thing with heat- Once it gets above 90F, you really can't tell a difference no matter how high it goes... It's just hot.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7778
If air temper was -4 but the water at he lake was at. Oh say 45 would you jump in? Has water temer would be warmer then air temer?
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Quoting wxchaser97:

D
25 and I have a winter jacket on, imagine -20F with lower wind chills:)


I cant imagine anything below 17 lol
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Strengthening squall line cutting through Long Island.

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Quoting weatherh98:


25? 25? I think id go into hypothermia

D
25 and I have a winter jacket on, imagine -20F with lower wind chills:)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Storm Nadine:



Tropical thunderfart nadine
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Quoting wxchaser97:

60F now= not so normal
25 and below is when it gets cold but not unbearable.


25? 25? I think id go into hypothermia
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Poll time.
As fall is upon us and hurricane season slowing down, heres the poll.
What would you consider the temperature that you begin to feel cold?

A 51-60
B41-50
C 31-40
D 30 and below

Ill say b
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Quoting weatherh98:


60 isnt bad

48 and below is cold

60F now= not so normal
25 and below is when it gets cold but not unbearable.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
"Its dead, Jim"
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Tropical Storm Nadine:

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Quoting wxchaser97:

That's looking pretty good, have to wait and see what it does when it firsts moves over water before making any call.


Up here it will actually me freezing, down there it is mild for me.


60 isnt bad

48 and below is cold
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Quoting SLU:


can i get a link?


Link to super long range CFS.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nice wave (Pouch 31L) about to emerge West Africa. Is getting late for that area to produce storms but never say never.


That's looking pretty good, have to wait and see what it does when it firsts moves over water before making any call.

Quoting weatherh98:


freezing down here for us:P

Up here it will actually be freezing, down there it is mild for me.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
405. SLU
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oct. 11 a Western Caribbean storm tracking northeastwards towards South FL.:



can i get a link?
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Being that I used to live up on Long Island.. I rarely see squall lines strengthen after coming in from the west. They usually weaken.. Not this one, a very strong squall line cutting through Long Island right now. I'm expecting widespread power outages and wind damage across the Island. I hope my family is ok.
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Nice wave (Pouch 31L) about to emerge West Africa. Is getting late for that area to produce storms but never say never.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's still 70F here, we're only going down to the mid 60s tonight as this weather system moves through... nasty.

Storms are getting closer to my area. Interestingly, they seem to be strengthening as they progress E/NE, especially the ones over CT and Long Island.

It is 55F here already, once the front comes through it will cool down over there.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting wxchaser97:
Frost advisories up for parts of the Great Lakes, gonna be a cold night tonight.


freezing down here for us:P
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Quoting popartpete:
The Northeast storm in my area: First serving of hype, a side of hype, a second helping of hype, and for dessert: hype.


well
has it cool off yet
cause iam telling ya
there is a big difference
in the air mass very fall like
behind it at least here

had light to mod periods of rain for duration of the event
with gusty winds at times and right after passage not not as gusty now
will be light by midnight
perfect for valley frost maybe north east and nw of the city
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53767

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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