August 2012: Earth's 4th warmest August on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

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August 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated August 2012 the 6th warmest on record. August 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. August 2012 was the 330th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of August in his August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.



Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Canada, Southeast Europe, and Western Asia. Central Russia was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average--the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event--since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent as of September 18, 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low years, in millions of square kilometers. This year's extent is far below any previous year, and is close to its minimum for the year. Satellite measurements of ice extent began in 1979. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

Arctic sea ice falls to all-time record low during August
August 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest August extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set (see the comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs here.) Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 18, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The amount of open ocean exposed this September compared to September 1980 is about 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. The ice extent is close to its minimum for the year, and should start in increase within the next week or two, but that open water over the Arctic will provide a significant amount of heat and moisture to the atmosphere over the next few months that will significantly alter weather patterns. One possible impact may be an increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events during fall and winter.


Video 1. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 – September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. Source: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Nadine approaching the Azores
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine is headed northeastwards on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the northwestern Azores. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to weaken on Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models predict Nadine will move southwestward over warmer waters, and it could become fully tropical again.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands yesterday (92L) has diminished, and this wave is no longer a threat to develop. None of the reliable computers models is showing development of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through September 24.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Blob, or just Blo?


we need a blob expert to answer this question

give him a minute he was here somewhere
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Blob, or just Blo?



Shirley, that's is a blob.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
524 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-182130 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
524 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. THOSE PLANNING BEACH ACTIVITIES SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN GOING INTO THE WATER. MODERATE RIP CURRENTS
CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER OUT INTO DEEPER WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY


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Blob, or just Blo?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Trough split at the end of the month, could see development in the Gulf or off the East Coast.


I see 1-2 possible areas of development, these troughs/fronts are pretty strong and I could see this happening.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
i got something i like to throw out there

if the arctic sea regions are ice free longer into the fall early winter
could that cause cold pools to dev over land areas
in the high artic
as oppose to the warmer areas of the open arctic sea to compensate for the ice loss
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Nadine

Nadine still staying alive, Azores still going to get rain and wind.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Trough split at the end of the month, could see development in the Gulf or off the East Coast.

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Nadine
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Quoting Skyepony:
TRMM of Nadine. Click here for quicktime movie.




This is making for a small window to piggy back Space Shuttle Endeavour from FL to CA.


with the way these fronts are motoring along its beginning to look more like mid fall

i guess mid fall will be looking more like winter then maybe
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1232 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS
EXTENDED FROM THOMASVILLE TO KEYSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BAINBRIDGE...
YORK...
ELIZABETHTOWN AND MAYTOWN...
MOUNT JOY...
MARIETTA AND STONYBROOK...
SPRY AND NEW FREEDOM...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 30.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
283...ROUTE 30...STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGE. MOVE INSIDE A PERMANENT BUILDING
NOW TO BE SAFE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
from facebook:..(is Jason really Henry??)

Henry Margusity Fan Club
Impressive winds on radar with in the storms heading into York, PA. Over hurricane force winds on radar! wow.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry but I don't agree. Yes they show average or slightly above average but not as strong as the NOAA image shows.
Aussie.......You got mail
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floks plse heed your local warnings..this is a serious storm up and down the east coast, warnings everywhere........BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1239 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...
SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 1233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE
BOONSBORO...EMMITSBURG...THURMONT AND WOLFSVILLE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. FLOODWATER USUALLY IS
DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE WHEN
FLOODED ROADS ARE ENCOUNTERED...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3943 7742 3941 7759 3936 7771 3943 7776
3972 7740 3972 7711
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42064
Storms are going to be producing a good amount of rain added to the wind and tornado threat. This is a really large storm. Once the front clears it is dry, cool, and windy.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
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12:30 EST update from the SPC..everyone in the outlining areas should read even if you are not in the moderate risk..

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF AUTUMN
THAN LATE SUMMER WILL SWING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SURGES
EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO CNTRL NY/PA AND WRN VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...A COMPACT BUT POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMANATING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION AND ACCOMPANIED BY A 50-60KT
MID LEVEL JET WILL RACE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM AL/GA TO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE ERN FLANK
OF THE LARGER DYNAMIC TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD.

...SOUTHEAST TO DELMARVA...
FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION IS COMPLICATED BY THE LEADING IMPULSE
OVER SRN AREAS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG AND EXTENSIVE FLOW FIELDS CHARACTERIZED BY
50-60 MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW ATOP LOW LEVEL SLY TO SSWLY FLOW AT
30-60KT WERE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR LINEAR AND PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES AND STORM MOTIONS
OF 40-50KT. BROAD REGION OF EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-700 M2/S2
ALSO EXISTS COINCIDENT WITH THE ANTECEDENT WARM/MOIST SECTOR WHERE
LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF THE
LEADING IMPULSE EJECTING FROM AL/GA. ONGOING CONVECTION FROM SC/NC
ACROSS SERN VA SHOULD SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VIGOR AS WEAK
INSTABILITY RISES SLOWLY AND DYNAMIC FORCING STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM FAST-MOVING
LINEAR SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION...CELLS NEAR LINE BREAKS...AND ANY
DISCRETE STORMS...WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.

...DELMARVA TO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND....
LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ADVANCING FRONT WILL DRIVE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE
AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AND INTENSE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO EXTENSIVE MOSTLY
STRATIFORM RAIN AREA FROM NRN VA ACROSS NY/VT ATTM. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION FOR THE TIME
BEING DESPITE HIGH VALUES OF SHEAR/HELICITY. DESPITE THE LACK OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WAS
ALREADY SUPPORTING EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
FROM NRN VA AND MD NWD TO SRN TIER OF NY. MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON COULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A CORRIDOR WHERE MOIST
ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYERS...IN THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE
FLOW/SHEAR...RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAST-MOVING NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND/QLCS. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS FLUX
INTO AND AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH RAPID STORM
MOTIONS AND PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. A COUPLE
OF BRIEF...BUT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE MDT RISK AREA DEPICTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ABOVE
SCENARIO TO UNFOLD BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/2PM-8PM EDT.

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

TORNADO WATCH 644 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-13 7-147-177-187-
190000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0644.120918T1630Z-120919T0000Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN
DARE DUPLIN GREENE
HYDE JONES LENOIR
MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO
PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON
$$

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they have expanded the area to where they had it yesterday for the slight risk as well..

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74. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM of Nadine. Click here for quicktime movie.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
front exits the east as another gets its self together over the nw



This is making for a small window to piggy back Space Shuttle Endeavour from FL to CA.
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the SPC has upgraded to a Moderate risk..I cant get the map to show up
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The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

Delaware
eastern Maryland
New Jersey
far southeast New York
eastern Pennsylvania
coastal waters

Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until
700 PM EDT.

Tornadoes... hail to 0.5 inch in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 95 statute
miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Monticello
New York to 30 miles west southwest of Philadelphia Pennsylvania.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou3).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information... continue... ww 641... ww 642...

Discussion... forced band of convection over cntrl PA is expected to
intensify this afternoon with additional more discrete storm
development possible farther E nearer to the Atlantic coast.
Widespread clouds and precipitation will limit the degree of air
mass destabilization. However... given the very moist
environment... sufficient instability will develop to support tstms.
As both vertical shear and forcing for ascent continue to increase
through the afternoon... expect a corresponding organization of
storms into lewp/Bow structures and possibly supercells capable of
tornadoes and damaging winds.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
400. Mean storm motion vector 23040.


... Mead
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Observed at: Alert Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday 18 September 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 30.09 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles

Temperature: 13.3°F
Dewpoint: 11.3°F
Humidity: 92 %
Wind: NW 7 mph
Wind Chill: 3


600 miles from north pole
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When I watched the news this morning, the rains were down played and mostly we were looking at just the severe threat itself of the approaching storms..

From the Star News in Wilmington
Coastal New Hanover County is also under a flood advisory until 2 p.m. Affected areas include portions of Canal Road in Carolina Beach and the U.S.S. North Carolina memorial in Wilmington. "Standing water of ... up to (6 inches) is possible across portions of the advisory areas," the advisory states.

Heavy rains are expected to continue for most of the day and are the result of a northern cold front colliding with an area of low pressure from the Gulf Coast. The storm is spread over the entire East Coast, according to local meteorologists.
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Quoting sar2401:

Where exactly would this "Summit Camp" be located?


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is true, but wind shear is extreme. If we had a lot of CAPE, this would be a huge outbreak.

Luckily high amounts of CAPE aren't present today, still a good sized fay today though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Conditions
-16 C 3 F
5.0 knots
175 degrees S


As of 09/18 14:12

Where exactly would this "Summit Camp" be located?
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front exits the east as another gets its self together over the nw

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Wow, when I access at work (during break) using IE, some posts (like #47) show the same elongated blob that Grother first used blob terminology. When I am home I get an updated rainbow for the very same post. Strange. I will log out and back on to see if it updates.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Very impressive low passing thru Alabama right now I think everyone one from the mid to east Atlantic States should stay on top of this system this afternoon and evening.

Impresive? I guess it depends on what "impressive" means. :)


Link
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The Arctic cie loss is due to slightly warmer air temps, but mostly it's due to water temps which are warmer due to the the warm AMO and in part the PDO.
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Quoting sheople:
Thanks you Dr. Masters,

I am trying to understand the reason for arctic warming. Could it possibly be due to a shift in the earth's axis?. Exposing the arctic to longer days? This would change the suns rays in relation to the equator and change weather patterns world wide. Any thoughts on this? Thanks in advance.

That's some good snark there...

I hope.
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Conditions
-16 C 3 F
5.0 knots
175 degrees S


As of 09/18 14:12
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is true, but wind shear is extreme. If we had a lot of CAPE, this would be a huge outbreak.
If if were a skiff, we'd go rowing.
:) Yes, you are correct. Higher cape would leave more potential esp for supercells. SPC has not and I wouldn't completely rule out supercells today. 1000 j/kg is enough.

...

Tornado Watch Excerpt...
DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS A
VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT VAD AND
MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.



Click image for complete watch text and probabilities.



No one knows what this will do yet. Per the SPC, potential is moderate for tors, low for EF2-plus.

Okay. I'm gone. (edit)Watch the SPC and your local mets and make sure your weather radio has fresh batteries - especially if you are in So PA, Maryland, DC, and (edit) E and NE VA.

Added:
More tornado watches up. Click graphic for specifics on these watches.


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a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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Quoting stevsh89:
2nd warmest record for August over land? Does anyone know which year was the warmest - was it 2011?
According to the GHCN-v3 dataset, yes it was August, 2011. All of the monthly and annual averages from 1880 to the present are here in text:
Edit: that link will not work, but here is the page that links to it.
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CAM1/CAM2 NORTHPOLE



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COMPARE 2007/2012



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Quoting StormDrain:
Atmosphere is not highly unstable but... plenty shear.


Most unstable CAPE, CIN (convective inhibition), and Effective Bulk shear in knots.

(Image will update. I hope)

This is true, but wind shear is extreme. If we had a lot of CAPE, this would be a huge outbreak.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32809
Quoting Neapolitan:
Your meterological service says otherwise. The Northern Territories look like they've had a cool winter, but WA has been pretty warm overall 9except for the northern third:

Aus

...with August warmest of all:

Aus

Sorry but I don't agree. Yes they show average or slightly above average but not as strong as the NOAA image shows.
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Thanks you Dr. Masters,

I am trying to understand the reason for arctic warming. Could it possibly be due to a shift in the earth's axis?. Exposing the arctic to longer days? This would change the suns rays in relation to the equator and change weather patterns world wide. Any thoughts on this? Thanks in advance.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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