August 2012: Earth's 4th warmest August on record
August 2012 was the globe's 4th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated August 2012 the 6th warmest on record. August 2012 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. August 2012 was the 330th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average; the last time global temperatures were below average was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of August in his August 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for August 2012. Most areas of the world experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including much of Canada, Southeast Europe, and Western Asia. Central Russia was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average--the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event--since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent as of September 18, 2012 (black line) compared to the previous record low years, in millions of square kilometers. This year's extent is far below any previous year, and is close to its minimum for the year. Satellite measurements of ice extent began in 1979. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.
Arctic sea ice falls to all-time record low during August
August 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reached its lowest August extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set (see the comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs here.) Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 18, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The amount of open ocean exposed this September compared to September 1980 is about 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. The ice extent is close to its minimum for the year, and should start in increase within the next week or two, but that open water over the Arctic will provide a significant amount of heat and moisture to the atmosphere over the next few months that will significantly alter weather patterns. One possible impact may be an increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather events during fall and winter.
Video 1. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 – September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. Source: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory.
Nadine approaching the Azores
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine is headed northeastwards on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the islands of Flores and Corvo in the northwestern Azores. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to weaken on Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, the GFS and ECMWF models predict Nadine will move southwestward over warmer waters, and it could become fully tropical again.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands yesterday (92L) has diminished, and this wave is no longer a threat to develop. None of the reliable computers models is showing development of a new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic through September 24.
Jeff Masters
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TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 31.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF FLORES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...
GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. NADINE SHOULD MOVE
ERRATICALLY TODAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT
ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY NADINE WILL AFFECT THE AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Big MODIS images showing parched wheat crops in southern Spain earlier this year from NASA Earth Observatory page: Drought Hits Spain's Wheat Crop.
Also, from a few days ago, Drought in Spain severely reduces olive crop sending price of olive oil surging.
Nice cloudy morning here on the space coast with rain expected...the front is taking its time and will probably wash out before it gets here. Good time to get out and get something done, no job shortages at my house, but the pay is less than a dollar a day, captain.
Surely they don't need rain on the plain?
Hahhahahahahaa
Seems like a lot of places need rain lately, that or they have too much. Good morning Harrison, it got to 40F this morning.
They are quieting down, but it is not over. Really only the GOM is hostile right now and we could see some sort of development from the AOI near Bermuda.
Annular hurricanes are rare.
I'm jealous. Warm and muggy here, for the 150th morning in a row. Here's hoping this next front makes it all the way through.
Annular hurricanes are very rare only 1-3% of storms meet all criteria
LOL
Well, for now I agree. But I think Nadine is wrapping up her center again (or i'm just seeing things).
Lift-off for Europe's Metop weather satellite
Arctic Volume statistics go along with the area estimates of half way to an ice free summer minimum. The volume statistic shows more progression to this level over the last two years than area, with much less recovery.
I wondered what you could get “ de resed” for.
Now that we have infrasound antigravity. (Asimov) NASA has launched satellites looking for wormholes to the sun. (Star Trek) Propulsion researchers are relooking at warp technology. (trek and wars) Ground based LiDAR can scan a 3D crash scene into the computer for analysis. (tron) Things are getting interesting again.
To a Floridian, de resolution at -45F seems like a probable reaction. (tron/ grin)
Hmm, I'm not the brightest mind here, but I do remember that a few hours before the hurricane hit, the flag indicating the city would be by the northwest (better, if there is one) side of the storm were raised. Just as the winds began to hit the city, it was discovered that the the city would actually be hit with the "dirty" northeast side and the flags were changed, but torn down by the wind. So I suppose we learned to determine early which side of storm you are on, becasue it makes a huge difference in outcome. We at least learned not to underestimate the power of a hurricane :)
Try living in the Great Lakes region... 90*+ all summer with high humidity... AND subzero wind chills all winter long...
It's not a matter of narrative, it's a matter of cause and mechanism. The mechanism for reducing sea ice in the Antarctic basin is not the same as the mechanism for the Arctic.
The Arctic is all ocean, the Antarctic is a continent surrounded by water. Sea ice in the Antarctic can increase both from freezing on the water and from land ice calving off into the ocean. Of course this is a far oversimplified description, a better explanation should be left to scientists studying the cryosphere. Such scientists have stated that the two poles cannot be compared directly, and that sea ice increases in the Antarctic are still consistent with planetary warming (and to be expected).
Isaac's Storm is the definitive reference for this Hurricane. What does it tell us about our understanding of the Natural world? Perhaps that it is essential to understand the risk posed by natural phenomena, like hurricanes, and to better plan for their impact, either through better mitigative measures, or by recognizing that some locations are so prone to risk that avoidance is the best of all options. Unfortunately, given the boom in building along exposed ocean coastlines during the last 50 years, we haven't learned that one yet.
That's a great point. Storms have served as catalysts too for not only sharing weather data internationally, but expanding observing networks.
Ellington, where it will land, is just north of me. I may take my daughter and go view.
I'm still a bit miffed that Houston didn't get a shuttle. We received a mockup. I refused to attend that big show when the fake was brought to Houston. Many others did too.
file image:
I could put up with that. Here, in the UK, we've had the wettest summer for 100 years. Where I live (Scotland), we've probably had less than a dozen days when the temperature reached 70.
The wet summer has been caused by unusually southerly jet stream loops. It's believed these loops are a consequence of the record Arctic Ocean ice melt. If that's the case, wet summers will become the norm, here.
I'll get my camera ready. I live near the jsc and it's planned to do a 1,500' fly over in about an hour. I'll also have on my ear protection. (or just remove the hearing aids).
If either of you are near Galveston, there is a very impressive slide/movie show on the hurricane as well as a small museum.
I was watching a documentary from the history channel on it last night...it just so deeply impacts you what they went through.
My wife is at Bush airport. She just sent me, via mms, a great pic of the shuttle over the airport.
Very cool..and awesome.
It is impressive and very informative. A real eye opener. This is also a book by Gary cartwright on the history of Galveston. Highly recommended. At one point, before the hurricane, Galveston rivaled NYC in economic and political dominance. And there were the fair share of gangsters and gambling etc. the hurricane ans resulting Houston ship channel ended its reign.
We had near record cold this morning; we were 1° away from tying the record low temperature of 39° in Cincinnati. Big Oaks appears to be Tri-State cold spot at 34°.
Actually, they did know, hence the changing of the flags. Hurricanes were tracked by ships offshore, wind direction, barometer readings, and on-the-ground reports. It was realized that the city was about to hit with the wrong side of the storm by observing the wind direction and changes.
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