Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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679. HurrMichaelOrl
4:05 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting 47n91w:


Possible, although in that area, this time of year, those are reasonable minimum temps. The local NWS office didn't release any record statements this morning, at least not yet. First frost across the inland areas of my county is September 15th. Despite my protests, this is right on time.

There was a record report from yesterday morning:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 41 SET IN 1958.

There were even lake-effect rain and clouds in the forecast along the lake shore counties overnight due to the cold air coming across the warm lake surface. Not sure why, but instead we had clear skies overnight. Western Lake Superior doesn't seem very warm, it may not provide the usual protection from cold fall nights this year.


That record low was actually from August 17, and, knowing how cold they are, I am still surprised that 41 F was a record low in International Falls on that date.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 950
678. MahFL
3:27 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
From Jim, going for snow still @ weekend.

"Very deep Long Wave pattern setting up for USA w/HOT WX 4PAC northwest &cold w/lght #snow 4Great Lakes by next weekend:"
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
677. MahFL
3:22 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Whoa, when did he say that, where would it be, and how much?


A week ago, and he was 100 % wrong.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
676. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:07 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
675. NewEnglandExpress
3:05 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
NASA mission on Thursday for Nadine with takeoff on Wednesday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT TUE 18 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA872--
A. 20/0000Z
B. NA872 0314A NADINE
C. 19/1800Z
D. 37.0N 31.6W
E. 20/0000Z TO 20/1245Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FEET
G. PATTERN: 6 E-W LEGS IN BOX 600 NM
SQUARE, ENTRY POINT 32.0N 36.0W
78 DROPSONDE RELEASES
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
UNLESS MISSION IN ITEM 1 ABOVE CANCELS,
IN WHICH CASE NEW TAKEOFF TIME WILL BE
20/1230Z.



well spent taxpayers money
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
674. SFLWeatherman
3:02 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

24-Hour Rainfall Total
(as of 11:00 a.m. EDT)
Knoxville, Tenn.
5.63 inches
Chattanooga, Tenn.
5.30 inches
Oak Ridge, Tenn.
4.63 inches
London, Ky.
3.77 inches
Asheville, N.C.
3.65 inches
Huntington, W.Va.
2.58 inches
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
673. Neapolitan
3:02 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
I don't know that I'd call CV season dead; this thing (P29L) moving off of Africa has a slight chance, while the blob to its east (P30L) actually has a better chance:

P29L

P30L

I'm not saying either will develop, and I'm not saying that even if they do they'll come anywhere near anyone. I'm just highlighting the fact that there are still waves moving offshore, and conditions are still good enough.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13268
672. 47n91w
3:01 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Any record lows?


Possible, although in that area, this time of year, those are reasonable minimum temps. The local NWS office didn't release any record statements this morning, at least not yet. First frost across the inland areas of my county is September 15th. Despite my protests, this is right on time.

There was a record report from yesterday morning:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 41 SET IN 1958.

There were even lake-effect rain and clouds in the forecast along the lake shore counties overnight due to the cold air coming across the warm lake surface. Not sure why, but instead we had clear skies overnight. Western Lake Superior doesn't seem very warm, it may not provide the usual protection from cold fall nights this year.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
671. Patrap
2:58 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
92w Long Floater, Rainbow Loop


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
670. SFLWeatherman
2:57 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Where is FL lol CMC 132 to 144HR Big rain!!

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
669. Tropicsweatherpr
2:53 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
NASA mission on Thursday for Nadine with takeoff on Wednesday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT TUE 18 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA872--
A. 20/0000Z
B. NA872 0314A NADINE
C. 19/1800Z
D. 37.0N 31.6W
E. 20/0000Z TO 20/1245Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FEET
G. PATTERN: 6 E-W LEGS IN BOX 600 NM
SQUARE, ENTRY POINT 32.0N 36.0W
78 DROPSONDE RELEASES
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
UNLESS MISSION IN ITEM 1 ABOVE CANCELS,
IN WHICH CASE NEW TAKEOFF TIME WILL BE
20/1230Z.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13288
668. msphar
2:52 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
My main interest is the cape verde stuff. I'm happy to hear that aspect is nearing its end or ended.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
667. SFLWeatherman
2:52 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
666. wxchaser97
2:49 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting MahFL:
I recall Jim Cantore saying there would be snow in the Great Lakes this week.......

Whoa, when did he say that, where would it be, and how much?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
663. MahFL
2:47 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
I recall Jim Cantore saying there would be snow in the Great Lakes this week.......
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
662. 47n91w
2:47 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting Progster:


Lots of locations in northern Minnesota dropped to 32F overnight..no moisture around, though.


The usual cold spot in northern Minnesota (where an observer is located) reported 20 degrees overnight. Many reports of mid-20s. Embarrass' report this morning @ 06:00 Hi/Lo/Precip:

EMBM5: EMBARRASS: DH0600/ 51 / 20 / 0.00

Morning cooperative reports:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=dlh& product=RTP&issuedby=DLH

Even had some 20's and low 30's inland across northern Wisconsin. Luckily, being close to the big Lake, I had 39 for low. More cold forecast for tonight. My tomatoes are not quite ready.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
661. Tropicsweatherpr
2:43 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Lane down to Tropical Storm.

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE
SOUTH...IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER EASIER. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT...THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCTION IN THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT LANE RECENTLY SHOWED AN EYE
FEATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. LANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE
NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS IT POLEWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING ENSUES. BY
24 HOURS...THE SHALLOW VORTEX OF A SEVERELY WEAKENED LANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM TV15.

STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS LANE MOVES OVER SHARPLY COOLER SSTS OF LESS THAN 22C...
AND ALSO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
MORE THAN 25 KT. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER FOR
BOTH SCENARIOS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 20.1N 127.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 20.9N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.5N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13288
660. wxchaser97
2:41 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
000
WTNT34 KNHC 181439
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 32.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 181439
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 127.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 90SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 127.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.9W

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
659. TXHuRRicanE
2:40 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
I think it'll be more of a straight-line wind threat for the east coast south of VA.. if tornado's were to form it'll be from the thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.
WHAT IT BOILS DOWN TO, BE SAFE N KEEP A EYE OUT... just my 2cents
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
658. PalmBeachWeather
2:37 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting Progster:


Lots of locations in northern Minnesota dropped to 32F overnight..no moisture around, though.
Dropped down to 72 here in south Florida.....lol.....Maybe a record high today of 91.....Yuck
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5750
657. jeffs713
2:36 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



They ignored climatology, GFS forecasted surface temperatures, and many other things, all in favor of following a 540 line, and faulty GFS readings of inches of snow at 45F.
Its not a big deal, but they didnt exactly do that great, im not sure if i would call them snowcasters, not sure anyone really thought it would snow, they were just jumping on the GFS...It was long term
anyways, no big deal.

It was cool to look at.

7 days out, I'd still judge getting a pattern change, frontal passage, and cooldown correct as "good". Missing the intensity a tad, and maybe misjudging precip - that will happen on a 7-day forecast.

Here in Houston, the NWS office rarely places anything more than a 50% chance of rain more than 5 days out for the same reason - it is just that hard to call. If I see a forecast for freezing temps 7 days out, I just mentally make a note of it and check again in 3 days. I don't take it "seriously" until 2 days out, by which time the front projected to push the cold air through has already formed.

As another case in point - If I followed every 7 day forecast, and judged them as "right" or "wrong" based on temps and precip, I would find they are wrong a majority of the time. If I went by overall patterns and large-scale changes - I would find they are right a vast majority of the time. On the same page, if I did the same thing for 2 and 3 day forecasts... the NWS would be right a majority of the time on temps (allowing them a 5-degree window).

My point is that saying they were "completely" wrong with a 7-day forecast is kinda like accusing someone of being a terrible prognosticator of football scores for Sunday's game... on Monday a week before.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
656. wxchaser97
2:34 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting msphar:
Ok "anything can happen" I'll buy that.

However we have a bunch of nothing happening out there. I hope it stays that way.

I hope nothing happens, Isaac was enough for people.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
655. Progster
2:33 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

I said it would be cool to see snow but it is the middle of September so it wouldn't happen.


Lots of locations in northern Minnesota dropped to 32F overnight..no moisture around, though.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
654. StormDrain
2:31 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

MSLP and surface wind, SPC mesoanalysis pages, EC sector


Most unstable CAPE, CIN (convective inhibition), and Effective Bulk shear in knots.

(These images will update. I hope)
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 495
653. msphar
2:30 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Ok "anything can happen" I'll buy that.

However we have a bunch of nothing happening out there. I hope it stays that way.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
652. MTWX
2:27 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting sar2401:
Good morning, everyone. The passage of "93L" through central AL has been extremely...uneventful. :) Some scattered showers with a grand total of .16 inches so far. Stil a few scattered showers wandering around from an open wave over MS, but it appears that this wave is weakening as it moves east. The cold front should be through here sometime late this afternoon and finally get rid of this suffocating humidity. It looks like the air will be stable enough by the time of the frontal passage that it should also be a non-event in terms of storms.

Any idea why WU is still showing 92L and 93L as invests on the main tropical weather page? Naming 93L as an invest has to be the strangest thing done by the NHC this year.


We got almost 3" at my place between about 5 pm yesterday through this morning from this system!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1391
651. wxchaser97
2:27 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



They ignored climatology, GFS forecasted surface temperatures, and many other things, all in favor of following a 540 line, and faulty GFS readings of inches of snow at 45F.
Its not a big deal, but they didnt exactly do that great, im not sure if i would call them snowcasters, not sure anyone really thought it would snow, they were just jumping on the GFS...It was long term
anyways, no big deal.

It was cool to look at.

I said it would be cool to see snow but it is the middle of September so it wouldn't happen.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
650. wxchaser97
2:26 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting msphar:
So whats the haps with this second half of the season. Is this the end already ? Seems awfully quiet in the MDR. Is Africa no longer producing waves ?

Probably a couple more storms before seasons end. The season is not over and the US could still get hit. Africa is still producing waves just conditions are becoming less favorable but anything can happen.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
649. GeorgiaStormz
2:24 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

What do you consider completely wrong?

They got a pattern change correct.
They got the forecast of a front coming through correct.
They got the forecast of it being colder correct.

So they missed on the intensity of the cold. If that is all they missed 7 days out - they did VERY well. I'd love to see you do better.



They ignored climatology, GFS forecasted surface temperatures, and many other things, all in favor of following a 540 line, and faulty GFS readings of inches of snow at 45F.
Its not a big deal, but they didnt exactly do that great, im not sure if i would call them snowcasters, not sure anyone really thought it would snow, they were just jumping on the GFS...It was long term
anyways, no big deal.

It was cool to look at.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
648. msphar
2:23 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
So whats the haps with this second half of the season. Is this the end already ? Seems awfully quiet in the MDR. Is Africa no longer producing waves ?
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
647. StormDrain
2:18 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Sounds like an upgrade to moderate risk still could happen. Excerpt from 8 a.m. SPC Convective Outlook for today...
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE RISK
AREA. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ALONG A CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE DC-BWI-PHL-NYC AREAS. HERE...EFFECTIVE HELICITY
VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 FAVORS THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION.
NEVERTHELESS...THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR WILL BE MONITORED FOR
TRENDS SUGGESTING A GREATER RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/18/2012

Click image below for complete 8 a.m. convective outlook. Yellow is 10% tornado probability risk area.


Best not to be fooled by 500-1000j/kg. Probably enough instability considering the shear factors.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 495
646. icmoore
2:18 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Good morning everyone. We've already had a couple of real nice thunderstorms blow in off the Gulf here in Madeira Beach. I was noticing on the radars that the line out in the Gulf has been growing steadily maybe adding to our rain totals later.

Link
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4141
645. SFLWeatherman
2:08 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
!!:)

Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like Florida first dry cold front will sweep through next week!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
644. weatherbro
2:05 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Looks like Florida's first dry cold front will sweep through next week!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1213
643. sar2401
2:02 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope your right because I don't want to clean up damage and go without power.Well at least if we go without power it won't be that bad this time around as the high tomorrow will be 70 and not 95+degree heat with high humidity like we were left with after the other storms..

It looks like the remnant low that's causing the storms in GA and the Panhandle is moving more east than north. If that continues, one piece of the pie needed for severe storms won't be arriving on the east coast in time to co-phase with the low advancing east from the cold front, which should limit the severe weather threat.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9775
642. Progster
1:58 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting unknowncomic:
What is this to the right moving west?



Cut off low developing near 35N 57W. It does get over warm waters and models are generating quite a bit of convection in its core. It drops to the left side of an omega block developing in the southern stream of the westerlies, with Nadine forming the right side of the block.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
641. MahFL
1:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting belizeit:
Does anyone know when the new sattelite data will be out for the public


Which new sat data ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
640. sar2401
1:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
ex92 trying to get back on the map http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&pro duct =NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=ye

I don't think ex-92L is coming back from the dead. It has been officially deactivated and the pending cold front is going to drag a lot of dry air into the Gulf and northern Caribbean over the next two days.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9775
639. washingtonian115
1:55 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting sar2401:

It looked like that here in AL last evening...and then very little happened. I'm hoping the same thing happens for you.
I hope your right because I don't want to clean up damage and go without power.Well at least if we go without power it won't be that bad this time around as the high tomorrow will be 70 and not 95+degree heat with high humidity like we were left with after the other storms..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
638. MahFL
1:55 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Ex 92L seems to be making a comeback.
This shear map has a large area of 5kts shear, I have not seen that all season.

Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
637. ncstorm
1:53 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
wow..the red circles are just going to increase bigger and northward as the day goes on..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
636. sar2401
1:53 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Right now its humid and windy outide with gray clouds some dark..I hope those strong winds that are forecast don't come to pass...

It looked like that here in AL last evening...and then very little happened. I'm hoping the same thing happens for you.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9775
635. pcola57
1:52 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC001-037-135-181430-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0354.120918T1334Z-120918T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 931 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SILER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNOW CAMP...
SUTPHIN...
SAXAPAHAW...
CANE CREEK RESERVOIR...
EFLAND...
HILLSBOROUGH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 150 AND 270.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 164 AND 170.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 264 BETWEEN EXITS 378 AND 383.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE
SHELTER IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 7897 3576 7903 3563 7955 3588 7954
3618 7924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 230DEG 32KT 3577 7952

$$

BLAES


Quoting ncstorm:
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

TORNADO WATCH 641 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-037-051-063-065-069-077-083-085-093-101-10 5-125-127-135-
145-153-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-182100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0641.120918T1345Z-120918T2100Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE CHATHAM CUMBERLAND
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GRANVILLE HALIFAX HARNETT
HOKE JOHNSTON LEE
MOORE NASH ORANGE
PERSON RICHMOND SAMPSON
SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE
WARREN WAYNE WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...RAH...







Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6641
634. washingtonian115
1:49 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


same here..but we might get some severe storms but you guys are in a higher risk than we are for high winds and tornados..
We here in D.C seem to be the target as of late..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
633. SFLWeatherman
1:49 PM GMT on September 18, 2012

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
632. ncstorm
1:48 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

TORNADO WATCH 641 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-037-051-063-065-069-077-083-085-093-101-10 5-125-127-135-
145-153-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-182100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0641.120918T1345Z-120918T2100Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE CHATHAM CUMBERLAND
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GRANVILLE HALIFAX HARNETT
HOKE JOHNSTON LEE
MOORE NASH ORANGE
PERSON RICHMOND SAMPSON
SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE
WARREN WAYNE WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...RAH...

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
631. ncstorm
1:47 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Right now its humid and windy outide with gray clouds some dark..I hope those strong winds that are forecast don't come to pass...


same here..but we might get some severe storms but you guys are in a higher risk than we are for high winds and tornados..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
630. ncstorm
1:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC001-037-135-181430-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0354.120918T1334Z-120918T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 931 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SILER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SNOW CAMP...
SUTPHIN...
SAXAPAHAW...
CANE CREEK RESERVOIR...
EFLAND...
HILLSBOROUGH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 150 AND 270.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 164 AND 170.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 264 BETWEEN EXITS 378 AND 383.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE
SHELTER IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 7897 3576 7903 3563 7955 3588 7954
3618 7924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 230DEG 32KT 3577 7952

$$

BLAES
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
629. islander101010
1:46 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
ex92 trying to get back on the map http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product =NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=ye
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4017

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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