Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Kratje:


When scubadiving, we use a sort of pencil to write on a little plastic board. It works under water, so i expect it to work in rain and wind as well.


Chinagraph pencil - a bit like a strong wax crayon - the white and yellow look great on black background. Used to be (may still be so)a must-have for all military folks.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good to see you (grinning) Baha... : )
Yah.... thought I wouldn't make it the first couple weeks because I didn't have working A/C at my workplace, and the heat was KILLER... really bad. These early "cold" fronts are doing a lot to keep the daily temps from soaring. It's still humid, but not so bad simply because a humid 89 is much better than a humid 94....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting wxchaser97:

Problem is for nor'easters they pass me by and I almost always get nothing which sucks. I have to depend on clipper systems, LES, and pacific storms to get snow.


I live on a high east-facing ridge of the Appalachians, so nor'easters that roll up the east coast usually push west to the mountains, and then DUMP on the eastern slope as the moist air rises. We might get 3-4 inches of rain and some wind from this, but probably not anything historic (I hope not, anyway).
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Quoting mcampb2811:
Ok, so I probably have a stupid question, but I have always wondered - When lightning strikes the ocean, how far of a radius will the shock travel?


Check this:

Link

One of the comments there:

3) On April 14, 2010 at 7:50 pm Tesseral [0] said:

I was scuba diving in Cozumel during a lighting storm about 30 years ago. I was probably down about 50-60 feet when lightning struck the water's surface above me. The bolt spread out on the surface; I didn't feel anything.

Also: Lighting and the Diver

Link
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Oh my!.I went to my local news paper website(washingtonpost.com)and it showed D.C having the potential to have winds in excess of 55-70mph.It could happen while people are either at work or in school.Depends.the event could happen between 2:00pm-5:00pm.If it happened at 4:00pm-5:00pm that could be the worst case as rush hour will be starting.I don't want no more power outages please!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17602
18z GFS at 102 hours with the storm in the Central Atlantic--GFS is more bullish

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16209
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is true. He was one of the best directors ever.

He did a very good job... Hope this new one keeps the pace....
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I posted this earlier today about model agreement (CMC, GFS,NOGAPS and Euro) on the storm developing in the central atlantic and heading towards the CONUS..the 12z Euro takes it NW and then north..it dosent quite get going and tighten up..looks to be a huge broad circulation..



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16209
Quoting Grothar:


Only one I can think of is to stay inside and write.


When scubadiving, we use a sort of pencil to write on a little plastic board. It works under water, so i expect it to work in rain and wind as well.
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Quoting sar2401:

Do you man how far does the current travel? Surprisingly enough, not very far. Salt water has less resistance than freshwater but the ocean is also a really big place compared to a river or lake. The charged current dissipates rapidly in open ocean, so even a big strike wouldn't be felt much more than about 100 feet. I spent a lot of years sailing, and saw a lot of lightning strikes. I never saw any dead fish float up. If you're in a shallow beach lagoon, you are more at risk, which is why it's a good idea to get out of any water when you hear thunder.


Thank you. Yes I meant the current. I grew up going to the ocean every weekend and often saw lightning at a distance before we would get out of the water so I always wondered how far it would travel?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, I finally decided to try Firefox. Now I will get to see what the excitement is all about...


Recomended Add ons:

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If this storm was happening in the Dec-Jan-Feb time frame I would be pumped!.Because we here in D.C would likely be talking about a couple of inches to a foot of snow.But all we're going to get is some rain.We need it so i'm not really complaining to much.I do think it'll foreshadow what we'll be seeing this up coming fall-winter.Certainly reminds me of 2009 in some ways.Minus the already moderate El nino in the pacific..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17602
Good to see you (grinning) Baha... : )
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BTW, I finally decided to try Firefox. Now I will get to see what the excitement is all about...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey I'm all for a stormy cold winter this year after witnessing this past winter...


I think I forgot what snow was like, and I'm in Michigan. Wanted to hit the slopes last winter...
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting mcampb2811:
Ok, so I probably have a stupid question, but I have always wondered - When lightning strikes the ocean, how far of a radius will the shock travel?

Do you man how far does the current travel? Surprisingly enough, not very far. Salt water has less resistance than freshwater but the ocean is also a really big place compared to a river or lake. The charged current dissipates rapidly in open ocean, so even a big strike wouldn't be felt much more than about 100 feet. I spent a lot of years sailing, and saw a lot of lightning strikes. I never saw any dead fish float up. If you're in a shallow beach lagoon, you are more at risk, which is why it's a good idea to get out of any water when you hear thunder.
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Not sure that any of you care at this particular moment, but just a heads up, we will likely be tracking a new super typhoon in a few days. The JTWC has not officially declared the area near 153W 13N an invest yet, but this is the precursor disturbance that should become a monster as it heads for Taiwan.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690
12z Euro at 24 hours


48 hours


18z GFS-24 hours




the GFS is much slower with the second low on the east coast and starts it at Florida
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16209
Afternoon everyone... I know I missed the first half of the month, but it was in a good cause...

[grin]

I see Nadine is still going strong out there...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting Slamguitar:
I see we're talking about Nor'easters, the southern storm, and the upcoming winter, lol.
Hey I'm all for a stormy cold winter this year after witnessing this past winter...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17602
Some heavy rain slowly crossing the lake:

Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
I see we're talking about Nor'easters, the southern storm, and the upcoming winter, lol.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting GTcooliebai:

I have no idea what that radar is seeing compared to what's actually happening. I'm underneath all that ominious dark stuff and all there is in the entire state is some light rain. The warm front that's being push north by the remnants of 93L is moving much faser than the cold front moving south. It looks like severe threat will be more in TN, KY, and VA than further south.
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Ok, so I probably have a stupid question, but I have always wondered - When lightning strikes the ocean, how far of a radius will the shock travel?
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Quoting CaribBoy:


The Lesser Antilles radar showed the bulk of moisture between St Lucia and St Kitts, with the most active weather in Martinique first, then Guadeloupe, and around Antigua. Now all activity has dissipated...
Look dude, i know were all caribbean brothers and such, but you've been really getting to me and just about everyone else on this blog lately. I know its our rainy season and we should be getting alot more rain than we've been getting, but coming online on the blog every single day and complaining about it isnt going to make the convection move more north towards us. It's just a part of life bro, as you know we've hard much worse droughts than this...plus u gotta be considerate...Texas and much of the US Midwest has been seeing much worse drought counditions than ours since the beginning of last year...at least we're not getting 100 + degree temperatures..
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah the ones that get all the way out there usually give me just rain. Those are pretty rare though, most of them pass right off Cape Cod and give me a solid foot or so... We didn't have one last year!

I modified my comment to say where I get my snow from usually, last year I just forget about. My snow removal business did terrible making $0.00.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
forcast for my area

Tonight A few clouds. Increasing cloudiness after midnight then periods of rain. Wind south 20 km/h becoming light this evening. Low 17. Tuesday Periods of rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Wind south 20 km/h becoming west 20 late in the morning. High 19. Tuesday night Periods of rain ending in the evening then partly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Amount 5 mm. Wind northwest 20 km/h. Low 7. Wednesday A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Thursday Cloudy. Low 9. High 19. Friday Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 11. High 17. Saturday Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 10. High 16. Sunday Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. High 17.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not as much as you would think, as -PDO's like we are in now can sometimes cause winters to be about average in El Nino years.

I'm just hoping for a super, super cold Florida winter this year. Something like in 2009-2010. Believe me, it can get cold in Florida, just as cold as some of the other places in the SE United States.

Our -PDO signal is unusually strong this year though, which overrides what a typical negative signature causes. The winter of 1968 and 1969 was a very strong -PDO signature and it was a brutal winter. That's why I say it will be below average temp. wise and above average snow wise, but not historic.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690
Quoting wxchaser97:

Problem is for nor'easters they pass me by and I almost always get nothing which sucks.

Yeah the ones that get all the way out there usually give me just rain. Those are pretty rare though, most of them pass right off Cape Cod and give me a solid foot or so... We didn't have one last year!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, four warnings on three separate storms. None look particularly dangerous though.
agreed, though i wouldn't ignore them if nearby!
bigger point being the early impacts of this system, and of the vigorous pulses to be embedded as the ULL moves through..
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Northern Florida that is... ;)


In south Fla., some lows in the 40's and highs in the 60's would be nice.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What a massive storm system:



I sure hope we get a couple of these this winter.

Problem is for nor'easters they pass me by and I almost always get nothing which sucks. I have to depend on clipper systems, LES, and pacific storms to get snow.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
What a massive storm system:



I sure hope we get a couple of these this winter.
Me too hopefully one of those for Christmas :)
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What a massive storm system:



I sure hope we get a couple of these this winter.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not as much as you would think, as -PDO's like we are in now can sometimes cause winters to be about average in El Nino years.

I'm just hoping for a super, super cold Florida winter this year. Something like in 2009-2010. Believe me, it can get cold in Florida, just as cold as some of the other places in the SE United States.
Northern Florida that is... ;)
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Quoting Minnemike:
there are tornado warnings up in Tennessee..

Yeah, four warnings on three separate storms. None look particularly dangerous though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm ready for winter. Should be cold and snowy for much of the East USA. Not historic or anything, just above average.


Not as much as you would think, as -PDO's like we are in now can sometimes cause winters to be about average in El Nino years.

I'm just hoping for a super, super cold Florida winter this year. Something like in 2009-2010. Believe me, it can get cold in Florida, just as cold as some of the other places in the SE United States.
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there are tornado warnings up in Tennessee..
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Quoting flcanes:

wat is
The storm we're tracking in Southern USA
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I see the Climate Prediction Center stated that SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific came down. I'm starting to doubt we get an El Nino.


I remember the forecasts of El Nino by July. Now it looks like only a Weak El Nino would be there by winter reverting to Neutral by early 2013.



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Quoting Bluestorm5:
This is very interesting to watch

wat is
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Quoting CaribBoy:


It's also extremely dry at your location! Wow.. Now I'm beginning to hope for a better situation in October/November. They are supposed to be the rainiest months in the NE Carib :)

are you saying..hurricane lenny xd
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Quoting ncstorm:
This is very interesting to watch
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I see the Climate Prediction Center stated that SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific came down. I seriously doubt we get an El Nino ever declared as cooling will begin over the next 2 months.

It'll be interesting to see if this cooling continues and we get into a more cool neutral or even La Nina pattern next year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Interesting... cold front is arriving.


that cold front phasing with the GOM disturbance is like adding gasoline to a raging fire..going to enhance it even more..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16209
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm ready for winter. Should be cold and snowy for much of the East USA. Not historic or anything, just above average.

I'm ready for an above average winter, nothing like last year.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I see the Climate Prediction Center stated that SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific came down. I seriously doubt we get an El Nino ever declared as cooling will begin over the next 2 months.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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