Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
However, from this perspective, 92L=toast.
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Quoting SLU:




Link


INDEED!!!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6103
Quoting hurricane23:


Season is just about over also. Very hostile conditions now encompassing most development regions basin wide. Maybe 1-2 sheared


You're a few days early, but will be correct by the weekend.
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Quoting islander101010:
92 looking like its making progress.


We'll see. Intensity forecast yesterday morning said it should be a 40 knot TS by now. Instead, it's a 10 knot fart in the wind at this time.
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See post 407 to see what i am talking about :)
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Quoting HurricaneDan:


DC is the bulls-eye it looks like...

If this were December, Jan. or Feb. the red shaded area would correspond to 6-12 inches of snow and the red with black dotted lines would represent 12 inches or more, lol. Do you guys agree?
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Quoting hurricane23:


Season is just about over also. Very hostile conditions now encompassing most development regions basin wide. Maybe 1-2 sheared


Well, then that's it, everyone....

Everybody log off...and it was nice chatting during the 2012 Hurricane Season.

Sarcasm: ON.
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Quoting unknowncomic:
I wouldn't forget about 92L just yet.

I've downgraded the chance of development from negative 20% to negative 30%. At this point there's not much left to develop even if conditions were perfect. Even then, we've seen already this year storms doggedly stagger and fall like a boxer on the ropes despite repeated calls for the opposite of rapid intensification under ideal circumstances....I'll believe it when I see it as there's obviously some pattern/climate change with tropical cyclone development that we're not able to see, except in retrospect years from now. jmo
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Quoting hurricane23:


Season is just about over also. Very hostile conditions now encompassing most development regions basin wide. Maybe 1-2 sheared

Yeah, uhm...off the East Coast is only the place where wind shear is above normal according to NOAA.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11097
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's just a little area of convection at this point. Nothing to worry about.





:) Thumbs up!
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Quoting unknowncomic:
I wouldn't forget about 92L just yet.


It's just a little area of convection at this point. Nothing to worry about.



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
I wouldn't forget about 92L just yet.

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Quoting HurricaneDan:


DC is the bulls-eye it looks like...
Quoting washingtonian115:
The tornado shield will hopefully work tomorrow.

I'm very skeptical of any significant severe weather outbreak tomorrow. There's no instability, we should just see rain with some thunderstorms, a few with possibly damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado maybe. Nothing remarkable.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Nothing will develop in the climatological favored Western Caribbean in October?


Possible but the gulf looks nasty hostile for conus threat.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Season is just about over also. Very hostile conditions now encompassing most development regions basin wide. Maybe 1-2 sheared


Nothing will develop in the climatological favored Western Caribbean in October?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14206
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How high?

Funso finished just under 30.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's over:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al932012.ren


Season is just about over also. Very hostile conditions now encompassing most development regions basin wide. Maybe 1-2 sheared
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Do you think Nadine will enter the GOM in 588 hrs?
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Quoting HurricaneDan:


DC is the bulls-eye it looks like...
The tornado shield will hopefully work tomorrow.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There's still a weird little swirl to the SSW of Lane, right at the bottom of this loop:

It's the marco of the Epac
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2356
406. etxwx
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Hi friends, a bit off topic, but it seems a bit slow. I am looking for products, or ideas, that make it possible/easier to write on paper with a pencil in inclement weather, rain, snow, sleet, you name it. Any idea my weather friends? Thanks in advance. Bob.

#197 - Bob, Yupo synthetic paper is pretty cool stuff and it's waterproof. You can write, print, or whatever on it and it comes in various thicknesses. Check art supply or office supply stores or see if they'll send you some samples. Yupo Website
If you don't mind me asking, are you a storm chaser or perhaps a writer who really likes "atmosphere" when writing? :-)
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92 looking like its making progress.
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Quoting Grothar:
Like I said all week, Nadine wants to come back west.



this thing is to circle dance the atlantic
for the next week and a half maybe then some
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
Quoting ScottLincoln:


SPC convective outlooks are meant to highlight areas of organized severe weather. Many times isolated severe weather can occur outside of the outlook delineations, which is either to be expected, or might be a sign that the system being watched is not evolving quite as predicted. This case seems to be a combination of both, and as others mentioned, the SPC adjusted their outlook to match convective trends.
The SPC are the best in the world..I knew they would say something at anytime..:)
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11097


There is weak circulation with 92L, I still think its a potential threat!
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Quoting hydrus:
We just had 3 tornado warnings in our county from that..No mention from the SPC for tornadoes, but they did jack up the severe threat a few notches.


SPC convective outlooks are meant to highlight areas of organized severe weather. Many times isolated severe weather can occur outside of the outlook delineations, which is either to be expected, or might be a sign that the system being watched is not evolving quite as predicted. This case seems to be a combination of both, and as others mentioned, the SPC adjusted their outlook to match convective trends.
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Quoting LargoFl:
there's going to be alot of flooding warnings out for this system


So far, rivers are behaving just fine. Even with QPF added, there are no river systems experiencing flooding or expecting flooding at this time due to the system (exception would be the Cache River in Arkansas, which is in flood several times in a typical year due to how it's flood stage is set).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/quickbrief.php

Isolated, low-end flash flooding is possible however with any of the heavier showers/bands.
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Quoting will40:


CV storm is building at 360 hrs
If we count all the storms that the gfs produce that would be Sandy and how much Ace do Funso produce?
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Quoting hydrus:
We just had 3 tornado warnings in our county from that..No mention from the SPC for tornadoes, but they did jack up the severe threat a few notches.

My yellow lab is starting to stress out.. always a sign of bad t-storms heading our way (west of Nashville).. I think she can hear the thunder way further away than we can. Could be a 'fun' evening around these parts..
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A total mess. And 92L doesn't look too good either.


Twit! Thought I wouldn't catch that one.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Storm tracks have sure been weird this year.They want to live on..
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Despite it becoming a Category 5 hurricane, the only one of the year so far, Sanba will not finish with the globe's highest ACE to date as the final warning has been issued by the JTWC. It will finish behind both Tembin and Bolaven from its own basin as well as Funso and Giovanna from the Southern Hemisphere, with Funso having the globe's highest ACE this year so far.

How high?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Quoting Grothar:
92L working the Graveyard shift.




A total mess. And 92L doesn't look too good either.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11097
Quoting flsky:


First thing to do is get rid of the ads. Easy to do with Firefox.

Adblock Plus
Webmail Ad Blocker
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's over:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al932012.ren


You sound like my first wife.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Like I said all week, Nadine wants to come back west.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
GFS Nadine




Models

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
It's over:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al932012.ren
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Quoting ncstorm:


they increased the tornado threat for yall..at 5:43 est pm..



Thank you for that post. One cell that passed us to the west looked classic with the hook. One went right over my house and it was very weird looking. Still waiting to hear if there was damage.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah I see a little something there, 348 hours.
Fantasy land!.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
300 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 120 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ATHENS GEORGIA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SHORT BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE TNGT OVER
PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...PIEDMONT...AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS
MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM IMPULSE
ACCELERATING NEWD FROM LA. WHILE UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED
BY WEAK LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR
SLOWLY-ADVANCING WARM FRONT NOW DRAPED ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...CORFIDI

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
It look like things are starting to pop off..stay safe out there!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15045

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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