Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Guess what basicaly all of southern New England is under a high wind watch
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-180400- /O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0003.120918T1800Z-120919T1200Z/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREEN FIELD... ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL.. .LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON... SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORW OOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON.. .PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH... PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...AYER...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND 347 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. * HAZARDS...STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...4 PM TO MIDNIGHT NEAR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...7 PM TO 4 AM NEAR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. * IMPACTS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLY DOWNED TREES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS OUTDOORS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON. && $$
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478. viman
Quoting Tazmanian:




Good luck with that

Just remeber I told you, and I prefer plain ole cheese pizza. Only thing is FedEx to the islands is a fortune. :)
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Quoting viman:
3 to 4 more named systems to total 19 - like I said in June/July... We go all the way to "S" before all is said and done...

Well that would require 5 named storms, which is definitely going to be pushing it. It's not impossible, but with the rest of September looking pretty slow we'll need some serious October activity to get 5, and I don't see October being anything more than average this year.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
So how long until predictions for next year start?

We haven't even finished this season and we are already talking about the next one. Predictions for winter and then next year. Though we could start now I guess.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
So how long until predictions for next year start?


With Neutral ENSO= 16/8/3
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13989
Quoting viman:
3 to 4 more named systems to total 19 - like I said in June/July... We go all the way to "S" before all is said and done...




Good luck with that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114696
Quoting Grothar:


I happen to like anchovies. Only way to eat a pizza.

Amen !
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its that low over the Southeast going to become like a Noreaster, looks like one in the making over Lower MS/AL
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Quoting Slamguitar:


I had em before, they're not too bad, but for some reason no one else will try them when I split a pizza with someone else.


Never heard of half and half.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
I'd say we get Oscar out of September, Patty and Rafael out of October, and whatever the S name is out ov November.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Get ghosts na homie i have a family to take care of and cant spend all day on web. Shear is always the hardest to forecast. In the long term we can't decipher with accuracy what impact shear will have on a specified region but we can use long range atmospheric forecasts (such as the ENSO, jet streams, long waves, etc) to get an idea of what patterns we could expect. Its been an interesting season.


If shear is hard to to decipher, how can you declare the season over already?

and the ENSO to El Nino has been the most failed forecasts this season..

and yes it has been an interesting season..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14397
Quoting Grothar:


I happen to like anchovies. Only way to eat a pizza.


I had em before, they're not too bad, but for some reason no one else will try them when I split a pizza with someone else.
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467. viman
3 to 4 more named systems to total 19 - like I said in June/July... We go all the way to "S" before all is said and done...
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The SPC updated their Tornado map for tonight..this is not good to be happening at night..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14397
Quoting Grothar:

I guess that's why it's called a spaghetti plot...
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Fixed your typo. ;)


I happen to like anchovies. Only way to eat a pizza.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
So how long until predictions for next year start?
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Quoting ncstorm:


no its not a contest but 'bout every development we have had, you come on here and say it's not happening and after it develops, you get ghost..it never fails when a new invest is declared and here you come declaring it wont ever develop...


Get ghosts na homie i have a family to take care of and cant spend all day on web. Shear is always the hardest to forecast. In the long term we can't decipher with accuracy what impact shear will have on a specified region but we can use long range atmospheric forecasts (such as the ENSO, jet streams, long waves, etc) to get an idea of what patterns we could expect. Its been an interesting season.
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Agree season is over,maybe a tropical storm or two,nothing else.Cold is taking over quickly.Gulf could not even get Isaac to cat 2 at peak of season.Conditions have gotten more hostile now.
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Quoting Grothar:


Mushrooms and black olives please.


Fixed your typo. ;)
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Hurricane season peak for FL is Oct!!


Not to mention Central America - in places like Honduras October IS the hurricane season.
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Day 6 HPC

Day 7
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Quoting Grothar:


Mushrooms and anchovies please.



It will be a pizza of my picking. And I send it in the box.


But. You will have too pay for the shipping
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114696
I think October will be more interesting than most think. That doesn't mean a bunch of hurricanes or a major, but I think we will have a few interesting storms to track next month.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
I will. Buy evere one a pizza if we don't see any more name storms.




Mushrooms and anchovies please.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
Doesn't look like much



Issued by The National Weather Service
Binghamton, NY
Mon, Sep 17, 2012, 7:49 PM EDT
Local Radar Map
Updated Sep 17, 2012, 9:05pm EDT
Weather in MotionĀ® | Enlarge Map
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... HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* TIMING... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ONWARD TUESDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS... PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

* WINDS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER... GUSTS AS STRONG AS 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS... AND ALSO WITH ANY NARROW LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS... DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES CAN BE ANTICIPATED... ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
Quoting Tazmanian:


Not evere oct or evere year in oct. is going to be the same has the last one
Thats True!
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Hurricane season peak for FL is Oct!!
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I will. Buy evere one a pizza if we don't see any more name storms.


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114696
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Hurricane season is this about overe


You might wanna hold that thought Taz.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
The Florida Panhandle has had a lot of Hurricanes in the month of Oct.


Not evere oct or evere year in oct. is going to be the same has the last one
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114696
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE SABINE
RIVER BORDERING TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH OVER THE GULF STATES...WITH BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASUREMENTS FROM ONBOARD SATELLITE SENSORS
DEPICTING A BROAD SWATH OF PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FROM
EASTERN LOUISIANA TO WESTERN GEORGIA...AND AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14397
TA 13 mentioned it earlier but there could be another powerful West Pacific storm coming up, the GFS has been persistently strengthening it a lot.



Too early to nail down any real specifics, but here's the disturbance that may develop. As many of them are out there, it's large.

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Hurricane season is this about overe
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114696
The Florida Panhandle has had a lot of Hurricanes in the month of Oct.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Really? This is not a contest.. In short el ninos imprint on this season was placed since early on. Everything this year was mostly north of 25n. Models in general are showing the gulf will get extremely hostile soon with strong westerlies in the order of 50-70kts.


no its not a contest but 'bout every development we have had, you come on here and say it's not happening and after it develops, you get ghost..it never fails when a new invest is declared and here you come declaring it wont ever develop...
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14397
Quoting lobdelse81:

I do not believe that one simple cold front clearing the Gulf of Mexico could end the tropical season in that region. If it takes weeks and even months at the beginning of the season to make things favorable, then it should also take weeks (a series of fronts and troughs) to make conditions hostile to end the season. As they say(climbing up) "three steps forward, one step back, two/three forward" and conversely(on the downward trend) three steps down, one step up, two/three steps down." So clearly one cold front clearing the gulf will not be the nail in the coffin. Same thing should apply to the Cape Verde region.

But by the end of the month, three or more fronts are forecast to clear the gulf.

With that said, a tropical critter can still rear its ugly head, but will only get to TS category. The only area that may still get a Hurricane will be S. Florida.
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Quoting ncstorm:


he has been wrong all season on every storm


Really? This is not a contest.. In short el ninos imprint on this season was placed since early on. Everything this year was mostly north of 25n. Models in general are showing the gulf will get extremely hostile soon with strong westerlies in the order of 50-70kts.

AGAIN still cant rule out climo favored mid/late developement in western carib.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Season is just about over also. Very hostile conditions now encompassing most development regions basin wide. Maybe 1-2 sheared
NO way!!
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Cannot understand how it can looks so bad and still get a 90knot strength forecast.SHIP wishcasters?




SHIPS is useless with invests. It doomcasts all of them. It only becomes useful when development happens.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2012 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 32:56:53 N Lon : 33:55:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 994.2mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.0 1.5

Center Temp : +15.0C Cloud Region Temp : -5.4C

Scene Type : SHEAR

Well that can't be good... they missed the center terribly though, lol.

For a second I thought that was a different storm, Nadine doesn't seem that weak.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2012 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 32:56:53 N Lon : 33:55:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 994.2mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.0 1.5

Center Temp : +15.0C Cloud Region Temp : -5.4C

Scene Type : SHEAR

Well that can't be good... they missed the center terribly though, lol.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine has weakened a bit more according to ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091800, , BEST, 0, 336N, 345W, 50, 989

I don't know though... Looks pretty good to me, earlier it didn't even look tropical:



I'd say there's probably about a 20% chance that Nadine's death, whenever it happens, will mark the end of the season in terms of named storms. I'm expecting 1 or 2 more from this point on.

More like if her death ever happens, I say 1-3 more storms
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting lobdelse81:

I do not believe that one simple cold front clearing the Gulf of Mexico could end the tropical season in that region. If it takes weeks and even months at the beginning of the season to make things favorable, then it should also take weeks (a series of fronts and troughs) to make conditions hostile to end the season. As they say(climbing up) "three steps forward, one step back, two/three forward" and conversely(on the downward trend) three steps down, one step up, two/three steps down." So clearly one cold front clearing the gulf will not be the nail in the coffin. Same thing should apply to the Cape Verde region.
Cape Verde season usually shuts down earlier than the other regions. The last storm will probably form the first week of Oct.
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Cannot understand how it can looks so bad and still get a 90knot strength forecast.SHIP wishcasters?



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Quoting lobdelse81:

I do not believe that one simple cold front clearing the Gulf of Mexico could end the tropical season in that region. If it takes weeks and even months at the beginning of the season to make things favorable, then it should also take weeks (a series of fronts and troughs) to make conditions hostile to end the season. As they say(climbing up) "three steps forward, one step back, two/three forward" and conversely(on the downward trend) three steps down, one step up, two/three steps down." So clearly one cold front clearing the gulf will not be the nail in the coffin. Same thing should apply to the Cape Verde region.


he has been wrong all season on every storm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14397
Quoting hurricane23:


Possible but the gulf looks nasty hostile for conus threat.

I do not believe that one simple cold front clearing the Gulf of Mexico could end the tropical season in that region. If it takes weeks and even months at the beginning of the season to make things favorable, then it should also take weeks (a series of fronts and troughs) to make conditions hostile to end the season. As they say(climbing up) "three steps forward, one step back, two/three forward" and conversely(on the downward trend) three steps down, one step up, two/three steps down." So clearly one cold front clearing the gulf will not be the nail in the coffin. Same thing should apply to the Cape Verde region.
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Nadine has weakened a bit more according to ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091800, , BEST, 0, 336N, 345W, 50, 989

I don't know though... Looks pretty good to me, earlier it didn't even look tropical:



I'd say there's probably about a 20% chance that Nadine's death, whenever it happens, will mark the end of the season in terms of named storms. I'm expecting 1 or 2 more from this point on.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
However, from this perspective, 92L=toast.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.