Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:
But I'll admit that the US trough barrier has returned, and given the climatological likelihood of more troughs, if the lower 48 is going to get hit again, it won't be through Cape Verde systems.

It's climatologically and historically unlikely to begin with.
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As many have already pointed out, models are incredibly divergent with the eventual track of Nadine in the long term. 00z Cycle out to 10 days is plotted below. Probably one of the greatest model spreads I have ever seen. The extreme divergence in the long run is a product of the rapidly evolving pattern over North America and the North Atlantic. Right now we have a growing weakness in the ridge from a weak passing shortwave which will pull Nadine northward for a time. After a few days, however, ridging will build in strong to the northwest of Nadine as a result of the large longwave trough over the Great Lakes region. This should push the storm southward eventually. However, it remains to be seen whether or not Nadine will retain tropical characteristics. The GFS and ECMWF seem to think so but they also initialize the storm much stronger and deeper than it likely is. I like the NHC's call for an extratropical transition in a couple days which matches up with what the hurricane models (HWRF and GFDL) are showing. Perhaps by the weekend we could see Nadine reacquire tropical characteristics, though a lot will depend on the track which is very uncertain at that time.

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While this is at 348 hours out, the GFS shows 2 more storms including a cv storm. Once we get closer to this other models may jump on so I don't think this season is over yet.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
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Quoting 1441114:
We will finish the list in November ,Oscar in September , Patty , Rafael , Sandy, Tony in October , and Valerie and William in November , and maybe a pop up storm or two in December . And lots of rain in the south , and maybe two major earthquakes around the world , and possible war US vs. the Middle East , if things don't get any better , God forbid. Please everyone take care of each other.
I know. I'm going to make my remaining time on Earth count for something!
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Well of course it should since conditions are getting unfavorable, but yet the GFS develops a cv storm later in the latest run. The season as a whole isn't over and Caribbean/homegrown development is pretty likely.
I know most people automatically jump to "active season = landfalls" (which is true to an extent), but that's almost completely missing the point. In addition to what you said, there are also still plenty of opportunities for subtropical developments, and with them, a couple more hurricanes.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, no she's not. I don't understand why people are saying that. How are conditions anymore hostile now than they were earlier in the season?


Seems to happen during every "calm" period after Sep 10th. God forbid the models aren't supporting anything either, cause we know they're always right...
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...LANE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 17
Location: 18.4°N 127.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 19.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 20.6N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.3N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 21.4N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
But I'll admit that the US trough barrier has returned, and given the climatological likelihood of more troughs, if the lower 48 is going to get hit again, it won't be through Cape Verde systems.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I mean yes, our Cape Verde season may soon shut down, but that shouldn't come as a surprise considering it's nearly October. Geez guys...

Well of course it should since conditions are getting unfavorable, but yet the GFS develops a cv storm later in the latest run. The season as a whole isn't over and Caribbean/homegrown development is pretty likely.

Quoting unknowncomic:
Call me a wishCall me a wishcaster or call me whatever, but mjo is coming back and we will see more action this year gar un teed.

The central and western Caribbean has warm SST's and good TCHP so as long as shear is favorable we could see a system.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Call me a wish
Quoting mcluvincane:
I don't normally agree with hurricane23, but agree that season is done with. Never thought I would say this mid September, but the fat lady is singing right now peeps.
Call me a wishcaster or call me whatever, but mjo is coming back and we will see more action this year gar un teed.
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Quoting lobdelse81:
I truly believe (just being realistic)that next year we have an above average chance of seeing a major hurricane hit the US. If not next year, then certainly 2014 (the midpoints in almost every decade have featured some pretty intense hurricanes that have hit the US):
1954/55: Connie, Diane, Carol, Edna, Hazel
1965: Betsy
1974/75: Carmen, Eloise
1985: Elena, Gloria
1995: Opal (this year launched us into our current active era)
2004/2005: we know what happened
These are examples just to name in the past 50 years.
I agree that we are going to see some sort of historical major hurricane event within this decade.
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I mean yes, our Cape Verde season may soon shut down, but that shouldn't come as a surprise considering it's nearly October. Geez guys...
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Yup, last year the lakes were warm in the winter, but the air masses were warm too, so the temperature differential wasn't big, meaning crap for snow. Hopefully this winter is a different story.

I think we should see a colder air mass but nothing is set in stone.

Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, no she's not. I don't understand why people are saying that. How are conditions anymore hostile now than they were earlier in the season?

They really aren't and the season isn't over yet. I think we should see a couple more storms before season's end.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting mcluvincane:
I don't normally agree with hurricane23, but agree that season is done with. Never thought I would say this mid September, but the fat lady is singing right now peeps.


lol, no she's not. I don't understand why people are saying that. How are conditions anymore hostile now than they were earlier in the season?
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Which is why snow may be above average in our area but not by too much. Strange we are already talking about winter when it's the middle of September.


Yup, last year the lakes were warm in the winter, but the air masses were warm too, so the temperature differential wasn't big, meaning crap for snow. Hopefully this winter is a different story.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Slamguitar:
Lake Michigan still warmer than the 2 decade average, which should help produce plenty of LES as long as it stays comparatively warm and the air masses work in our favor as well.




Which is why snow may be above average in our area but not by too much. Strange we are already talking about winter when it's the middle of September.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
I don't normally agree with hurricane23, but agree that season is done with. Never thought I would say this mid September, but the fat lady is singing right now peeps.
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Lake Michigan still warmer than the 2 decade average, which should help produce plenty of LES as long as it stays comparatively warm and the air masses work in our favor as well.



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Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh 93L..Landcane on Cloudsat.

It is a stronger system, similar to the 1993 storm but weaker luckily.
landcane from rainbow satellite:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
506. beell
It's only a model. Certainly could not expect 50 knot upper level westerlies over the GOM for 384 hrs straight-right? Right??

18Z GFS 200mb - 384 hour loop
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Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh 93L..Landcane on Cloudsat.

That's a lot of rain there......
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Quoting Doppler22:

Cold and snowy for me :) I like that forecast

It wouldn't be a terrible winter but I think the eastern part of the country will be cooler. Now my forecast may/will change as we get closer to winter.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
A quick forecast before the 11pm advisory, full forecast/blog coming soon to theaters near you.
NOT OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting wxchaser97:
A very early winter forecast by me that is likely to change, based on a warm neutral-weak el nino.
NOT OFFICIAL

Cold and snowy for me :) I like that forecast
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3628
501. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh 93L..Landcane on Cloudsat.
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I love spaghetti, tastes really good. Models show some sort of turn, most to the south with the Euro turning to the west.


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting etxwx:

#197 - Bob, Yupo synthetic paper is pretty cool stuff and it's waterproof. You can write, print, or whatever on it and it comes in various thicknesses. Check art supply or office supply stores or see if they'll send you some samples. Yupo Website
If you don't mind me asking, are you a storm chaser or perhaps a writer who really likes "atmosphere" when writing? :-)
thanks et, appreciate the effort. No, no chaser or anything, I keep records for for my son's Pop-Warner football team, from the sidelines on regular sheet paper, the reason I am looking for a better way to do this. It's good to know of this type of paper tho, and will keep it in mind. Thanks friend for the time for me.
Member Since: October 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


strap some empty barrels to it and ya got a raft

not that you may need a raft

but then again one never knows

Hmmmm....

Sounds like you are Planning to point your RainMaker in my direction again.
Had a great downpour this afternoon.
Small column of tall cloud sat overhead and rumbled constantly for about 30 mins then let fly with 3/4" of rain in about 10 minutes. Great !
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I guess that's why it's called a spaghetti plot...

Cept that one's a squid plot...
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Quoting Slamguitar:
No! I was hoping for some thunder and lightning, but now the storms are falling apart after they hit land... Guess a few sprinkles are nice too.


Ahh man, I was hoping for rain tonight.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting Dakster:
Dang POottery, I thought the 1/4" stuff was flimsy... 1/8" is what, a sheet of paper?

Almost.....
Some people use it to cover cupboard doors and stuff.
Not me though.

Don't worry, I was just jousting with Keeper. :):))
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A very early winter forecast by me that is likely to change, based on a warm neutral-weak el nino.
NOT OFFICIAL
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting ncstorm:
The SPC updated their Tornado map for tonight..this is not good to be happening at night..



On the key for this map, what would the black coloration called "sig" mean? It is to the right of the 60% tornado probability. Has it ever had to be used?
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1070
Quoting pottery:

Right!
That does it!
I'm boarding up right now.

Been trying to figure out what to do with this sheet of 1/8" plywood for years........

:):))


strap some empty barrels to it and ya got a raft

not that you may need a raft

but then again one never knows
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Dang Pottery, I thought the 1/4" stuff was flimsy... 1/8" is what, a sheet of paper?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
9.00N/48.0W


IT HAS A CYCLONIC TURNING TOO IT

Right!
That does it!
I'm boarding up right now.

Been trying to figure out what to do with this sheet of 1/8" plywood for years........

:):))
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I truly believe (just being realistic)that next year we have an above average chance of seeing a major hurricane hit the US. If not next year, then certainly 2014 (the midpoints in almost every decade have featured some pretty intense hurricanes that have hit the US):
1954/55: Connie, Diane, Carol, Edna, Hazel
1965: Betsy
1974/75: Carmen, Eloise
1985: Elena, Gloria
1995: Opal (this year launched us into our current active era)
2004/2005: we know what happened
These are examples just to name in the past 50 years.
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487. viman
Good night, early day tomorrow... Play nicely...
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Quoting Grothar:


Never heard of half and half.

Half milk and half cream. tastes great in coffee.

Taz - I'll fly if you'll buy. Let me now when I can come and pick up 1,000 cheese pizzas. I'll even pay extra for Grothar's mushrooms and anchovies.
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AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
9.00N/48.0W


IT HAS A SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING TO IT
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
No! I was hoping for some thunder and lightning, but now the storms are falling apart after they hit land... Guess a few sprinkles are nice too.

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I'd say we get Oscar out of September, Patty and Rafael out of October, and whatever the S name is out ov November.
That would put us at 18 and in line with the 1969 season. My numbers are 18/9/3. We are currently at 14/8/1. So my prediction will be wrong in at least 1 category.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
482. viman
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Well that would require 5 named storms, which is definitely going to be pushing it. It's not impossible, but with the rest of September looking pretty slow we'll need some serious October activity to get 5, and I don't see October being anything more than average this year.

Maybe be off by 1 or 2 - nobody's perfect, but it's not over, not yet....
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Quoting ncstorm:


If shear is hard to to decipher, how can you declare the season over already?

and the ENSO to El Nino has been the most failed forecasts this season..

and yes it has been an interesting season..


Season is not over and we might see 1-2 more named tc's but in terms of the gulf it looks shut down till next year if the models are correct. Most of the tropical atl is hostile for the time being. Have fun
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


With Neutral ENSO= 16/8/3

I wasn't really serious but okay... If I had to guess based on what little information we have now I'd be around 14/7/3, but it's obviously way too early to know anything about how next year's pattern will shape up.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7607
Guess what basicaly all of southern New England is under a high wind watch
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-180400- /O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0003.120918T1800Z-120919T1200Z/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREEN FIELD... ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL.. .LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON... SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORW OOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON.. .PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH... PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...AYER...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND 347 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. * HAZARDS...STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...4 PM TO MIDNIGHT NEAR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...7 PM TO 4 AM NEAR THE WORCESTER HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST. * IMPACTS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLY DOWNED TREES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS OUTDOORS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON. && $$
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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