Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning everyone, Nadine isn't looking so tropical this morning.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. IMO this is a little overhyped by the SPC, I really don't see anything big today...
You may be right but I hope this is not the start of a pattern and I do not see anything similar this winter, because it has a little bit of that "Storm of the Century" look to it.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. IMO this is a little overhyped by the SPC, I really don't see anything big today:



We'll see. The biggest threats should be low topped convection capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and an isolated spin-up tornado.
Air looks too stable, humid, and not enough cold air aloft I guess to not produce a widespread event?
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South end of the line where the upper level energy is located is pretty intense this morning.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Good morning. IMO this is a little overhyped by the SPC, I really don't see anything big today:



We'll see. The biggest threats should be low topped convection capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and an isolated spin-up tornado.
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Quoting jeffs713:
There's something happening here.
What it is ain't exactly clear.
There's a man with a gun over there.
Telling me i got to beware.

Its time we stop, hey, what's that sound?
Everybody look what's going down.

Paranoia strikes deep.
Into your heart it will creep.
It happens when you're always afraid.

Step out of line and the man comes to take you away.

...
Nice, one of the better songs written by Stephen Stills.
Here is a couple of my old favorites continuing on the same topic:

"Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself"
- FDR's First Inaugural Address, 1933

The Paradox of Tolerance:
"Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them."
- Karl Popper in "The Open Society and Its Enemies" (1945)
(more context here)
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Good morning.Wave 92L passing mainly south of PR but scattered showers will be the rule today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
UPPER LOW/TUTT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST AT 10-15KT.
SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE BEEN
DETECTING EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PR AND USVI
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL HI-RES WRF
SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FROM 18/12Z THROUGH 18/22Z. DURING
THIS PERIOD...SOME POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE FLOODING WILL OCCUR AS
HEAVIEST BURSTS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS. FLASH FLOODING...
IF ANY...WILL BE IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY GRADUALLY INCR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
LCL ISLANDS WHILE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA MOVG ENE HAS REACHED ST.
CROIX. TIMING OF SHRA AT EACH TAF SITE IS TOUGH BUT MOST WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT SHRA WILL
CAUSE A COUPLE OF MVFR PDS. LLVL WIND GENERALLY E 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TORRENTIAL
RAIN...LOW VISIBILITIES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 90 79 / 80 30 30 30
STT 88 79 89 80 / 70 30 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14779
Good morning, Astro and everyone else. Looking forward to two nights in the fifties starting tonight. Day temps still in mid to upper 80s.
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Good morning!

I'm now at university doing something tangentially related to atmospheric science but the main focus of the faculty has switched from atmospheric physics to atmospheric chemistry and palaeoclimate studies.

Never knew Nadine was pumping along for so long - maybe she will cause a significant upwelling in the northeastern Atlantic, influencing the positioning of the Azores high, and altering the steering tracks come October?
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By the way...Kori and WxChaser97 also left good blogs too....and I hope 93L doesn't turn out to be so bad tomorrow...especially for the rest of my family who still lives in NC....

93L is one potent non-tropical system....
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Bazzinga!!! got my usual and very detailed blog update out in the last hour if anyone is still here....(if not...I guess the early-bird crowd at sunrise).

Talked about 93L...Nadine...92L....and everything else in the Atlantic arena. I think the discussion on 93L helps give some understanding on how a non-tropical system intensifies as much as 93L has....feel free to leave questions or comments....

Only reason I am still on here is insomnia gone rampant...and the fact that getting this update out took long from my lousy old PC and internet service. I just got a new PC that shouldn't hang up like this clunk-box...and maybe I will "fire" my current internet service provider for another while I am at it....
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Wish Gro was on to confirm if this behind 92L has achieved blob status:

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Quoting angelafritz:


Nice pie!


Burning the midnight oil tonight? :D
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563. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting Neapolitan:
She's hanging in there in fourth spot, and should make it into third if she doesn't go weak non-tropical by tomorrow:


1 MICHAEL 16.4975
2 LESLIE 14.7500
3 ISAAC 9.4425
4 NADINE 8.8150
5 GORDON 8.1900
6 ERNESTO 7.6625
7 KIRK 7.5100
8 CHRIS 2.7675
9 DEBBY 2.4450
10 BERYL 2.1600
11 FLORENCE 1.4375
12 ALBERTO 1.3750
13 HELENE 0.4050
14 JOYCE 0.2450

2012


Nice pie!
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
thanks et, appreciate the effort. No, no chaser or anything, I keep records for for my son's Pop-Warner football team, from the sidelines on regular sheet paper, the reason I am looking for a better way to do this. It's good to know of this type of paper tho, and will keep it in mind. Thanks friend for the time for me.

Check almost any stationary store for Rite in the Rain products. They have many different styles of writing paper, from spiral pads to bound notebooks. The prices are fairly reasonable, you can use almost any kind of writing object in pouring rain, and they never run. They are universally used in police and search and rescue work.
Rite in the Rain
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17050
Quoting KoritheMan:


30th*

Darn, bad memory and it's late.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Walshy:


But look at how many storms really should have not been named this season...NHC padded it.

Not going to get into this argument tonight.

But the American public knows this was just like any other regular season.

Probably why only half of the American public believes in global warming.

Goodnight.


...You kids and your conspiracies. It reads to me as though tropical cyclones have to be monsters to be considered even such if they don't make landfall. The only named storm I would say didn't deserve any name was Helene. Joyce even looked like a tropical cyclone, albeit a sickly one. Stop comparing these recent seasons to 2005, because that one was a dramatic outlier in every category, and not just in US landfalls.

This season's actually had a pretty high proportion of hurricanes, some of which may be bumped up a category upon inspection towards the end of the year (Gordon is strongly believed to have been a major, Ernesto was believed to have rapidly strengthened to category 2 - each with pretty good evidence in support of those beliefs; to a lesser degree, there has been controversy over Isaac's true intensity, and there are some that believe that Beryl indeed became a hurricane). Either way, this season's been a surprising one, and I do not believe there was any "padding".
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I am going to call it a night as it is late, good night everyone. I still see some activity in the coming weeks, the season isn't over until November 31st anyway.


30th*
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I am going to call it a night as it is late, good night everyone. I still see some activity in the coming weeks, the season isn't over until November 30th anyway.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I just finished a blog also.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Not sure I agree with the end of the season [I like the odds on one or two more in the Car], but even so, 14 systems isn't bad for what was expected to be on the skinny side of a normal season.

I think we could see 1-3 more systems before the season is done but yeah 14 is good for what was forecasted in the beginning.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
A new blog by me on Nadine, Lane, and even an early winter forecast.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting popartpete:
Someone called the storm going up the coast a "landcane"...interesting. The news is making this sound the same it does when we are having a tropical storm. We are expecting tropical rains, tropical storm force winds to low-end hurricane wind gusts, and tornadoes. I guess 93L plus ULL plus huge cold front is creating a very unusual storm. Dr. Forbes gives this area (Jersey Shore) a 4/10 'Torcon' score tomorrow. He said the winds at 5000 feet could be 80 mph. How much would that be at the surface?
About half, or 40-45 mph.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17050
Quoting BahaHurican:
Not sure I agree with the end of the season [I like the odds on one or two more in the Car], but even so, 14 systems isn't bad for what was expected to be on the skinny side of a normal season.


But look at how many storms really should have not been named this season...NHC padded it.

Not going to get into this argument tonight.

But the American public knows this was just like any other regular season.

Probably why only half of the American public believes in global warming.

Goodnight.
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509 mcluvincane: ...season is done with. Never thought I would say this mid September...

...considering you've been hearing the fat lady sing since May.
Some month you're bound to be right, the 2012 AtlanticHurricaneSeason will be over...
...by February 2013 if nothin' else, what with it being unlikely that a Dec.2012 TropicalCyclone would last through all of January.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine has weakened a bit more according to ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091800, , BEST, 0, 336N, 345W, 50, 989

I don't know though... Looks pretty good to me, earlier it didn't even look tropical:



I'd say there's probably about a 20% chance that Nadine's death, whenever it happens, will mark the end of the season in terms of named storms. I'm expecting 1 or 2 more from this point on.
Not sure I agree with the end of the season [I like the odds on one or two more in the Car], but even so, 14 systems isn't bad for what was expected to be on the skinny side of a normal season.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Season is just about over also. Very hostile conditions now encompassing most development regions basin wide. Maybe 1-2 sheared
Evening all.... just back in for a few mo. before bed... I agree with the main MDR area in the central ATL, but I'm not yet writing off chances in the WCar - at least not before the end of OCT, anyway. The fuel is still there, and I'd not be surprised if the one or two you mention end up a bit stronger than expected. However, I'd be quite glad not to have a Michelle suddenly spin up at the end of OCT....

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Tropical Storm Nadine:



Hurricane Lane:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 34.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NADINE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AZORES ON
TUESDAY.

LOL...thanks for this info...I can't get into the NHC webpage still...If I can't in the next 30 minutes...I'll just have to try posting a partial blog update or somethin'...but I will be missing some usual detailed info in that case...
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Guys....is the NHC webpage down (as well as every NOAA page)? I can't freakin get it to work at all!!!!!!

Then again it could just be me...because everytime I try to upload anything...internet is really slow or I get DNS error message. I've even tried resetting the server. Maybe the NOAA pages take more 'power' than the other websites...and my internet is incapable right now....

I am in the middle of trying to do a blog update...but if this keeps up I am cancelling...this really sucks....


Yeah it's working for me, Link, but sometimes the page gets all glichty for me. I'm in the middle of an update too including my very early winter forecast.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
543. JLPR2
Seems 92L left a little piece behind. Not sure if it is really a piece or the real low level spin.

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Guys....is the NHC webpage down (as well as every NOAA page)? I can't freakin get it to work at all!!!!!!

Then again it could just be me...because everytime I try to upload anything...internet is really slow or I get DNS error message. I've even tried resetting the server. Maybe the NOAA pages take more 'power' than the other websites...and my internet is incapable right now....

I am in the middle of trying to do a blog update...but if this keeps up I am cancelling...this really sucks....

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know, but I'm going to bed. Night.
omg. night lame-o

Quoting wxchaser97:

Would you like to go to chat? That is fine if so or if not.
sure why not

EDIT: KoriTheMan, or any other members currently on the blog please feel free to join us in chat!
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Quoting TomTaylor:
why isn't anyone in chat tonight ta?

Would you like to go to chat? That is fine if so or if not.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TomTaylor:
why isn't anyone in chat tonight ta?

I don't know, but I'm going to bed. Night.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

You are told to have an annual contingency plan for a reason, you know... ;)

I know but some people think they will be fine or storms never affect them and then one hits...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE
THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
COLDER CLOUD TOPS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING NADINE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.

NADINE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED...AND IT IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OR 045 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR SO TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF
SHOWING LESS DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE TROUGH LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NADINE IN
3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD....THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
CYCLONE MOVES. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH NADINE SO FAR.

NADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER A LITTLE COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE STORM ABOUT
THE SAME STRENGTH AS THE CYCLONE DERIVES SOME ENERGY FROM MID-
LATITUDE SOURCES. WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NADINE
COULD BEGIN THE TRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 34.6N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 35.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 36.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 37.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 36.7N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 35.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z 32.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 34.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NADINE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AZORES ON
TUESDAY.
why isn't anyone in chat tonight ta?
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...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 17
Location: 33.9°N 34.2°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 34.6N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 35.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 36.9N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 37.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 36.7N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 35.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z 32.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

Quoting wxchaser97:

This year has shown anything can happen, best just to be prepared to matter what.
You are told to have an annual contingency plan for a reason, you know... ;)
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Someone called the storm going up the coast a "landcane"...interesting. The news is making this sound the same it does when we are having a tropical storm. We are expecting tropical rains, tropical storm force winds to low-end hurricane wind gusts, and tornadoes. I guess 93L plus ULL plus huge cold front is creating a very unusual storm. Dr. Forbes gives this area (Jersey Shore) a 4/10 'Torcon' score tomorrow. He said the winds at 5000 feet could be 80 mph. How much would that be at the surface?
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 34.2W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NADINE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AZORES ON
TUESDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's climatologically and historically unlikely to begin with.

I'm surprised you are still awake, don't you have school tomorrow? This year has shown anything can happen, best just to be prepared to matter what.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting KoritheMan:
But I'll admit that the US trough barrier has returned, and given the climatological likelihood of more troughs, if the lower 48 is going to get hit again, it won't be through Cape Verde systems.

It's climatologically and historically unlikely to begin with.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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