Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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ex92 trying to get back on the map http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product =NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=ye
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Quoting jeffs713:

What do you consider completely wrong?

They got a pattern change correct.
They got the forecast of a front coming through correct.
They got the forecast of it being colder correct.

So they missed on the intensity of the cold. If that is all they missed 7 days out - they did VERY well. I'd love to see you do better.

I don't think the GFS is the issue. It did a good of forecasting the pattern chage, Some bloggers got a little overexcited about some of the projected isotherms and started saying "Snow, Snow!". They were clearly wrong.
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Right now its humid and windy outide with gray clouds some dark..I hope those strong winds that are forecast don't come to pass...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nature hates me..(says to self)This will all pay off washingtonian in the winter..this will all pay off...


if the set up is still where these potents Lows are traveling up the east coast during winter and phasing with fronts, its going to be brutal..might turn you against snow
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Good morning, everyone. The passage of "93L" through central AL has been extremely...uneventful. :) Some scattered showers with a grand total of .16 inches so far. Stil a few scattered showers wandering around from an open wave over MS, but it appears that this wave is weakening as it moves east. The cold front should be through here sometime late this afternoon and finally get rid of this suffocating humidity. It looks like the air will be stable enough by the time of the frontal passage that it should also be a non-event in terms of storms.

Any idea why WU is still showing 92L and 93L as invests on the main tropical weather page? Naming 93L as an invest has to be the strangest thing done by the NHC this year.
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Does anyone know when the new sattelite data will be out for the public
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Quoting ncstorm:
Looks like they updated the map an hour ago..


I can honestly say I have never seen almost the entire east coast in at least a 2% risk for tornados..


Nature hates me..(says to self)This will all pay off washingtonian in the winter..this will all pay off...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting yqt1001:
Also, while the GFS was correct in forecasting cold air, the snowcasters from a week or so ago were completely wrong. It's not snowing here, or even close....well it almost dropped below 0C last night at some time.

What do you consider completely wrong?

They got a pattern change correct.
They got the forecast of a front coming through correct.
They got the forecast of it being colder correct.

So they missed on the intensity of the cold. If that is all they missed 7 days out - they did VERY well. I'd love to see you do better.
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Looks like they updated the map an hour ago..


I can honestly say I have never seen almost the entire east coast in at least a 2% risk for tornados..


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Any one seen Levi latley?
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Good morning all. Beautiful weather here in Key West. Has a fall feeling. In mid September this is a rarity. The forecast for this weekend is a 60% chance of rain. I better mow my lawn this week. May not get a chance this weekend.
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
853 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LANIER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
CENTRAL LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 851 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VALDOSTA...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOODY
AFB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/NC TO MD/EASTERN WV/SOUTHERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181249Z - 181445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF NC INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
VA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MD/EASTERN WV/SOUTHERN PA. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ONE OR MORE WATCHES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES
A STEADILY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA...WITH AMPLE
EARLY DAY PRESSURE FALLS OF 1+ IN/HR NOTED FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF
VA/MD INTO WESTERN PA/NY. EAST-NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW...A
NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SPINE INTO GA/AL.
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE DELMARVA VICINITY.

WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
WARM CONVEYOR-DRIVEN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN SOME AREAS...GRADUAL
/ALBEIT RELATIVELY MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL VA. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
WASHINGTON-DULLES AND GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC ARE ALREADY
INDICATIVE OF 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE WITH VIRTUALLY NIL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...ALONG WITH A HIGHLY SHEARED/RICH LOW-LEVEL SRH
ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. POCKETS OF
STRONGER INSOLATION/HEATING...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND A
STRONG WIND/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
INCREASE/MATURATION OF STRONG/SUSTAINED TSTMS BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES BECOMING A CONCERN.

..GUYER/HART.. 09/18/2012


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...I LM...RNK...
CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34858033 35628059 36448012 37967886 39777830 40217774
40157637 39797587 37197691 34997790 34587905 34858033
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I guess Berg doesn't like the prospects of Nadine re-transitioning into a tropical cyclone on Day 5 and after. We will see what Pasch thinks at 15Z.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
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Quoting Eng1n3rd:


East side of the Mitten, I assume? I was from the K-zoo area before college

Yes, Metro Detroit is where I have been growing up for all my life. I don't know anyone in the west side of the state besides a few of my cousins at Grand Valley right now and wunderblogger Slamguitar is out there.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Miami NWS Disco

WITH THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...HIGHS TODAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHICH ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If Severe Weather ever had a feeling, I'm feeling it right now. It is extremely humid and warm here this morning under full sunshine.

Good morning Cody, maybe severe weather has feeling.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I have the sorry crew on this morning(Tony,Allison,and Tucker Barnes).They aren't taking this as serious as one would think.If thunderstorms develop it could push 65-70mph winds to the surface and create power outages and damage to structures.Some structures are all ready fragile from past events.e have a 4 out 10 here in D.C for tornado probability.Hopefully the shield comes into handy..

Good morning Wash, hopefully today is not a big severe weather day for you guys.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ahhh, you're still actually not that far from me.


East side of the Mitten, I assume? I was from the K-zoo area before college
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Quoting Eng1n3rd:


So, what's the likelihood of one of the Great Lakes region's famous November squalls forming over Lake Superior?
The warmer she is the more likely the "Gales of November" come early. I grew up south of Lake Erie, pretty much the same deal, warmer but with a shorter fetch.
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Quoting Eng1n3rd:


Former Michiganian, current Clevelander, moved from one snow belt to the other.

Ahhh, you're still actually not that far from me.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
My tropical blog for those who didn't see it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Also, while the GFS was correct in forecasting cold air, the snowcasters from a week or so ago were completely wrong. It's not snowing here, or even close....well it almost dropped below 0C last night at some time.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Are you a Michigander too, just curious? With the lake waters being warmer than average all we need is a relatively cold air mass to move over the lakes and there will be squalls.


Former Michiganian, current Clevelander, moved from one snow belt to the other.
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If Severe Weather ever had a feeling, I'm feeling it right now. It is extremely humid and warm here this morning under full sunshine.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


So, what's the likelihood of one of the Great Lakes region's famous November squalls forming over Lake Superior?


I think it's pretty likely. While great November squalls are relatively uncommon, we always get some form of sustained tropical storm force winds here in November from a relatively minor squall.
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Quoting Eng1n3rd:


So, what's the likelihood of one of the Great Lakes region's famous November squalls forming over Lake Superior?

Are you a Michigander too, just curious? With the lake waters being warmer than average all we need is a relatively cold air mass to move over the lakes and there will be squalls.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
I have the sorry crew on this morning(Tony,Allison,and Tucker Barnes).They aren't taking this as serious as one would think.If thunderstorms develop it could push 65-70mph winds to the surface and create power outages and damage to structures.Some structures are all ready fragile from past events.e have a 4 out 10 here in D.C for tornado probability.Hopefully the shield comes into handy..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
Quoting Eng1n3rd:


Actually, that makes a lot of sense and The Farmer's Almanac agrees with your prediction.

(Waits for attack for mentioning The Farmer's Almanac)

THE FARMER'S ALMANAC, that thing. Those maps are below dart throwing. I don't put anything into those but they are interesting to read and compare I guess.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting Slamguitar:
Lake Michigan still warmer than the 2 decade average, which should help produce plenty of LES as long as it stays comparatively warm and the air masses work in our favor as well.





So, what's the likelihood of one of the Great Lakes region's famous November squalls forming over Lake Superior?
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tropical gig, really dont have accurate records until the 60s, 92 got some work to do
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Quoting Eng1n3rd:


Actually, that makes a lot of sense and The Farmer's Almanac agrees with your prediction.

(Waits for attack for mentioning The Farmer's Almanac)
Noting that the OFA's long-term climate forecasting accuracy is slightly lower than throwing darts isn't an "attack"; it's just giving folks the information they need. ;-)

Looks to be an interesting week!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Another one bites the (Saharan) dust:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922012.ren

Didn't even know that little guy was still activated, still could try to do something later.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Another one bites the (Saharan) dust:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al922012.ren
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Quoting wxchaser97:
A very early winter forecast by me that is likely to change, based on a warm neutral-weak el nino.
NOT OFFICIAL


Actually, that makes a lot of sense and The Farmer's Almanac agrees with your prediction.

(Waits for attack for mentioning The Farmer's Almanac)
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Is anyone else having problems with Nadine's floater? I just get a black screen where the satellite should be.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I just hope she can hold out as long as she can for ACE purpose.

At least to get to third place, if Nadine goes extra-tropical but reacquires tropical characteristics what happens to her ACE?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927


I don't mind I like when other people post'em for me to see...
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Someone post a pic of Nadine currently.
Bout time the sun rises on her.



Here is the link you can go too with some of you being so lazye too look it up on your own and post it on your own


Link
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Someone post a pic of Nadine currently.
Bout time the sun rises on her.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
By the way...Kori and WxChaser97 also left good blogs too....and I hope 93L doesn't turn out to be so bad tomorrow...especially for the rest of my family who still lives in NC....

93L is one potent non-tropical system....



There. Is no more 93L it's now ex 93L
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, Nadine isn't looking so tropical this morning.

I just hope she can hold out as long as she can for ACE purpose.
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What is this to the right moving west?

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Everyone have a great Tuesday!
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Good morning everyone, Nadine isn't looking so tropical this morning.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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