Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since I have been informed that RainyMondayInTheSoutheast = Poll Day (by an anonymous source)...
Here is our poll:

Do we retire the names of too many tropical systems?

A) Yes, because_____________________


B) No, because______________________
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I do, lol. I'm good friends with James Franklin and his step brother, Jim Harris.
and what do you say about the invest in July would it be upgrade? what do you think?
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Quoting Xandra:
Today, Europe’s newest meteorology satellite, Metop-B, will blast into space from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

The MetOp satellites carry a set of seven 'heritage' instruments provided by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the French Space Agency (CNES) and a new generation of five European instruments offering improved sensing capabilities to both meteorologists and climatologists.

MetOp instrument overview

Liftoff at 1628 GMT (12:28 p.m. EDT)

Spaceflight Now's live coverage
Metop-B Live Launch


Great post -- thanks for the information
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Quoting SSideBrac:
Anyone got a link to the graphic showing possible severe weather for New York tomorrow?


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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning. I agree that 92L should not be dismissed.

Interestingly, the 1500 UTC 850 vort shows some improvment over the 1200 UTC signature ( though small at this time ) but of interest is the fact that Barbados has a wind switch to SW as the low associated with 92L passes to the North.

With a anticyclone overhead and shear projected to stay low 92L could be trying to mount a comeback.


The anticyclone should build over it pretty good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Rainy days and Mondays, always get me down....

I agree Gro I hate rainy Mondays.I don't mind rainy Thursdays or Fridays though :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
Quoting Grothar:
Rainy days and Mondays, always get me down....


Today is dry and clear for me and I have today and tomorrow off from school:)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting SFLWeatherman:



Do you have one any further out. Looks like some flooding is coming their way.
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Rainy days and Mondays, always get me down....

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Said that on the old blog, this morning...
Possibly become Oscar as it get's picked up by the next digging trough and recurves into Florida
One ensemble someone posted had it going into south Florida as a weak depression/tropical storm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831

Quoting Grothar:
Maybe not going to develop, but sure looks like a lot of rain going to head up to the Northeast.



Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Kman... I'm passing on the morning shift to you.
Have a good day everyone.


LOL. Wish I could stay and blog but since I am at work that is not an option. Will keep 92L "minimized" on my desk top though :-)
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Said that on the old blog, this morning...
Possibly become Oscar as it get's picked up by the next digging trough and recurves into Florida

Ahh, I see that you said that. I think that is possible.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Maybe not going to develop, but sure looks like a lot of rain going to head up to the Northeast.



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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning. I agree that 92L should not be dismissed.

Interestingly, the 1500 UTC 850 vort shows some improvment over the 1200 UTC signature ( though small at this time ) but of interest is the fact that Barbados has a wind switch to SW as the low associated with 92L passes to the North.

With a anticyclone overhead and shear projected to stay low 92L could be trying to mount a comeback.

Kman... I'm passing on the morning shift to you.
Have a good day everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

Once this gets into a better environment, if that ever happens, 92L could develop.

Said that on the old blog, this morning...
Possibly become Oscar as it get's picked up by the next digging trough and recurves into Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Do not dismiss 92L just yet. I shall be monitoring this closely and put up a possible blob-watch if necessary in a few days.



Good morning. I agree that 92L should not be dismissed.

Interestingly, the 1500 UTC 850 vort shows some improvment over the 1200 UTC signature ( though small at this time ) but of interest is the fact that Barbados has a wind switch to SW as the low associated with 92L passes to the North.

With a anticyclone overhead and shear projected to stay low 92L could be trying to mount a comeback.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Looks like 2011's retirements dont it?

Lee= No retirement because not enough damage
Irene= Only storm that should be retired

Lee was a little different to me but yeah it is similar.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I do, lol. I'm good friends with James Franklin and his step brother, Jim Harris.


The next time I have lunch with them, I'll tell them you said hello. :)
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Debbie retired... good laugh for the morning..
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Weak low still alive with 92L as 12z TAFB analysis.


Once this gets into a better environment, if that ever happens, 92L could develop.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

Debby= No retirement because not enough damage.
Isaac= only storm that should be retired
My thoughts on the retirement.

Looks like 2011's retirements dont it?

Lee= No retirement because not enough damage
Irene= Only storm that should be retired
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weak low still alive with 92L as 12z TAFB analysis shows.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Somebody will be sensitive to every storm, Debby want memorable at all, but retirement means something major damage happened with that storm, not that somebody will remember it.
There is a difference between causing a lot of damage, and causing retirement amounts of damage, or else we'd be retiring most landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes.
I actually think we retire a little too many storms as it is.

Debby= No retirement because not enough damage.
Isaac= only storm that should be retired
My thoughts on the retirement.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

No, I was just about to say that.
There is this thing people can sign up for where they get e-mails from the white house and the president himself.Forgot how you can do it though.I herd one of my co-workers talking about it but I didn't believe them.Well I'm just 5 miles away from the white house :).I'll just jump over the fence at risk of getting shot at by secret service.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
I wonder what the thunderstorms situation will look like over the Tampa bay area in a couple hours. Seems like there is plenty of heat, moisture, and sea breeze forcing, but I don't see much convection developing yet.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Current Damage totals from Isaac:
Dominican Republic: Unknown - 5 Dead
Haiti: >25 Million (USD) - 21 Dead
Puerto Rico: Unknown - 1 Dead
Florida: 71.6 Million (USD) - 2 Dead
Louisiana: Not completly tallied up yet - 5 Dead
Mississippi: Not completely tallied up yet - 2 Dead

Totals - Currently: 2 Billion (USD) - 44 Dead

My guesstimate is that Once LA and MS finish totalling up, it will be around 3 - 4 Billion (USD)

I say Isaac should get retired because of his damage and impact on people's lives.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It doesn't matter if it did "Minimal-Moderate" damage.
It's about how memorable the storm was and if it makes someone very senesitive to the name if it's used in the next cycle and comes hurdling toward Florida again.

I'd say more like that Debby is iffy and Isaac is locked in to be retired.

The people of New Orleans never want to see the word Isaac again, it'd be like keeping Katrina or Camille in the naming list, truthfully.


Somebody will be sensitive to every storm.
Debby wasnt memorable at all, and retirement means some major damage happened with a storm, not just that somebody will remember it.
There is a difference between causing a lot of damage, and causing retirement amounts of damage, or else we'd be retiring most landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes.
I actually think we retire a little too many storms as it is.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
What a novelty 92L looks like it has two centers.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I think ?Isaac stands a chance of being retired.I haven't checked the final numbers of damages it caused.Isaac did have a big impact on the environment down there with all the oil.

Current Damage totals from Isaac:
Dominican Republic: Unknown - 5 Dead
Haiti: >25 Million (USD) - 21 Dead
Puerto Rico: Unknown - 1 Dead
Florida: 71.6 Million (USD) - 2 Dead
Louisiana: Not completly tallied up yet - 5 Dead
Mississippi: Not completely tallied up yet - 2 Dead

Totals - Currently: 2 Billion (USD) - 44 Dead

My guesstimate is that Once LA and MS finish totalling up, it will be around 3 - 4 Billion (USD)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sheople:
Good morning, I am wondering if anyone has done any investigating as to the reason for the polar ice caps severe melting? Any insight or observations?

this link is what got my curiosity

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dR7IlDKzd90

sorry if I'm way of topic but if anyone knows I would think you guys would.

Thanks
Good morning. What melts ice???? Heat!!!
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have contact with the president.Lol.

No, I was just about to say that.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Do not dismiss 92L just yet. I shall be monitoring this closely and put up a possible blob-watch if necessary in a few days.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Cody. You don't have contacts with NHC. lol

I do, lol. I'm good friends with James Franklin and his step brother, Jim Harris.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Cody. You don't have contacts with NHC. lol
I have contact with the president.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Cody. You don't have contacts with NHC. lol

You never know and he has mentioned this before, Cody could have connections.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972


Wind obs suggest a weak closed circulation just off the NE coast of Barbados.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

It doesn't matter if it did "Minimal-Moderate" damage.
It's about how memorable the storm was and if it makes someone very senesitive to the name if it's used in the next cycle and comes hurdling toward Florida again.

I'd say more like that Debby is iffy and Isaac is locked in to be retired.

The people of New Orleans never want to see the word Isaac again, it'd be like keeping Katrina or Camille in the naming list, truthfully.

I don't think Debby will be retired, Isaac is a different story.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Having contacts with the NHC, I can assure you the only storm being considered for retirement is Isaac.

Intensity wise, Beryl will remain a tropical storm, 92L near the Azores before the season started is not getting upgraded, and Ernesto may be upgraded to a Category 2.

Cody. You don't have contacts with NHC. lol
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I think ?Isaac stands a chance of being retired.I haven't checked the final numbers of damages it caused.Isaac did have a big impact on the environment down there with all the oil.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17831
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Having contacts with the NHC, I can assure you the only storm being considered for retirement is Isaac.

Intensity wise, Beryl will remain a tropical storm, 92L near the Azores before the season started is not getting upgraded, and Ernesto may be upgraded to a Category 2.

Awww I remember that little sucker! Couldn't keep convection long enough... It tried it's best but... oh well. We still ended up with 2 named storms before June.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Having contacts with the NHC, I can assure you the only storm being considered for retirement is Isaac.

Intensity wise, Beryl will remain a tropical storm, 92L near the Azores before the season started is not getting upgraded, and Ernesto may be upgraded to a Category 2.

I wish I had connections with the NHC, that would be cool.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


But Debby CANT be retired, its almost impossible, not with 50 million in damages. lol :)

It doesn't matter if it did "Minimal-Moderate" damage.
It's about how memorable the storm was and if it makes someone very senesitive to the name if it's used in the next cycle and comes hurdling toward Florida again.

I'd say more like that Debby is iffy and Isaac is locked in to be retired.

The people of New Orleans never want to see the word Isaac again, it'd be like keeping Katrina or Camille in the naming list, truthfully.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Post-season poll time!
1. Final numbers for the season will be...
NS:
(A) 15 Named Storms
(B) 16 Named Storms
(C) 17 Named Storms
(D) 18 Named Storms
(E) 19 Named Storms or More

HUR:
(A) 8 Hurricanes
(B) 9 Hurricanes
(C) 10 Hurricanes
(D) 11 Hurricanes or More

INTENSE HUR:
(A) 2 Major Hurricanes - (Gordon/Kirk is upgraded)
(B) 3 Major Hurricanes - (Gordon and Kirk ugraded/or One is upgraded plus another Major?)
(C) 2-3 Majors - No upgrades
(D) 4 Majors - (Gordon/Kirk/ And another Major?)

2. Will Ernesto be upgraded to a Category 2?
How Strong?
(A) Yes, 100 Mph winds
(B) Yes, 105 Mph Winds or Higher
(C) No. He will be upgraded to 90 Mph
(D) No. No Upgrade at all.
(E) He will be upgraded to a Major Hurricane

3. Who will be Retired from the naming list?
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
-Oscar?
-Patty?
-Rafael?
-Sandy?
-Tony?
-Valerie?
-William?


^ Possible retirements if we get Rafael-William, due to them never being used before.

4. Will any other storms be upgraded?
Which one(s)?

(A) Yes
(B) No

Ernesto(100 Mph), Michael(120 mph), and Gordon(115 mph) will be upgraded.

That's a lot of questions, but I'll answer.
Final number= C(17 storms)
Hurricane= B(9 hurricanes)
Intense hurricane= B(3 majors)
Ernesto= A( Yes, 100mph)
storms retired= only Isaac
Will any more get upgraded= Ernesto, Gordon, and possibly Michael.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Just putting it out there :P
It's your opinion not mine.

Having contacts with the NHC, I can assure you the only storm being considered for retirement is Isaac.

Intensity wise, Beryl will remain a tropical storm, 92L near the Azores before the season started is not getting upgraded, and Ernesto may be upgraded to a Category 2.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
Today, Europe’s newest meteorology satellite, Metop-B, will blast into space from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

The MetOp satellites carry a set of seven 'heritage' instruments provided by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the French Space Agency (CNES) and a new generation of five European instruments offering improved sensing capabilities to both meteorologists and climatologists.

MetOp instrument overview

Liftoff at 1628 GMT (12:28 p.m. EDT)

Spaceflight Now's live coverage
Metop-B Live Launch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Just putting it out there :P
It's your opinion not mine.


But Debby CANT be retired, its almost impossible, not with 50 million in damages. lol :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Debby wont be retired and Isaac is iffy.

Just putting it out there :P
It's your opinion not mine.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Post-season poll time!
1. Final numbers for the season will be...

3. Who will be Retired from the naming list?
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
-Oscar?
-Patty?
-Rafael?
-Sandy?
-Tony?
-Valerie?
-William?


^ Possible retirements if we get Rafael-William, due to them never being used before.



Debby wont be retired and Isaac is iffy.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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