Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Nadine
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Going to watch 92L like a hawk - till it is well past Cayman - hopefully, may just be a squally rain giver.
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Quoting ncstorm:
anyone noticing the models developing a storm in the central atlantic and starts to head it towards the east coast?..of course not..12z models

JMA..you can see the storm coming into frame


GFS


Nogaps


CMC

I think that's Nadine sneaking back west. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15140
Quoting wxchaser97:

Fall is good, but my seasonal allergies are not so good. That's why I want to skip right over to winter.


Bring on the cold fronts. I am ready to wake up to a refreshing 50 F breeze coming in from the open sliding glass doors. Until then, the thermostat is staying at 68 F.

It looks like the tropics are winding down for the time being, maybe for the remainder of the season. The NW Caribbean hasn't spawned much in recent years, so this may be the year.
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Kind of interesting.

USGS Release: 3-D mapping of Isaac water levels

The information gathered from this pilot project will be used by USGS to develop 3-D models of streets and structures, including the levels floodwaters reached, as well as current water levels in the form an interactive 3-D flood inundation map. The map will help identify where the potential threat of future floodwaters is greatest, and will help determine the extent of wind and flood damages caused by Isaac.

"We are collecting storm-tide information that will allow scientists to study the impacts of the storm in three dimensions," said Toby Minear, a research hydrologist at the USGS California Water Science Center, who is participating in the study. "Imagine a 360-degree panoramic photo, but made with laser points where everything you can see has a known elevation and location. These 'point clouds' can be put together to create a full 3-D map of an area containing many millions of data points."



NOLA, 8/31/12
image credit: U.S. Geological Survey/photo by Toby Minear
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where you been hiding ?

hey long time no hear yeah been busy did a bit more military training and I am doing some classes so yeah been busy I decided to pop in on sunday since I have not checked the weather at all through out the week and surprised to see 92L soon about to enter he caribbean and the model run for it takes it towards Jamaica and us by the end of the week going weekend anyway I am free now and ready to track
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anyone noticing the models developing a storm in the central atlantic and starts to head it towards the east coast?..of course not..12z models

JMA..you can see the storm coming into frame


GFS


Nogaps


CMC
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122. etxwx
Quoting txjac:


WX ...woke up to 67 degrees here in Houston ...I'm with you, fall is here! I love fall weather.

Actually made my first batch of homemade soup yesterday!


Highs only in the 80's next few days too...been a while since we've seen highs that low. Time to break out the balaclava and the woolen knickers, eh? :-))

I'll take the cooler weather but would like a little more of that rain...locally, it seems to be going around us.
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1130 cdt SPC Day 1. (edit) 5% tor risk in the slight risk area.

Click image for complete text and probabilities.

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Quoting 7544:
good thing 93L is close to land if it was a few south in the gom could have formed fast

No, nothing else would have happened. The cold front would have killed it. I really think the NHC jumped the gun on this one. There was no chance that it was ever going to do anything but go inland. The main effect of 93L (such as it is) will be draw more Gulf moisture north and increase the risk of low end severe weather threat in AL and MS later today and tonight, as the front approaches. The remnants will ride up the stalled front into the northeast and also increase the threat of a low end severe weather threat.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15140


92L
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80's with low humidity is a taste of Fall to us and The Florida Peninsula looks to get just that by next week!!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I have contact with the president.Lol.


Is that a good thing?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hmm looks like 92L will be the storm for Jamaica Cayman Islands Cuba and Florida
Where you been hiding ?
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GFS at 72 hours.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


We wouldn't wonder...

We would eventually get info out of him if he didn't tell.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hmm looks like 92L will be the storm for Jamaica Cayman Islands Cuba and Florida
Yes so far anyway
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting LargoFl:


hmm looks like 92L will be the storm for Jamaica Cayman Islands Cuba and Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1047 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RESERVE...LAPLACE...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1038 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE FLOODING
IS THE RESULT OF DEBRIS WASHING INTO STORM DRAINS...RESULTING IN
POOR DRAINAGE. RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY
NOON...ALLOWING THE STREET FLOODING TO SLOWLY RECEDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Fall Alergies?
I dont have those....I guess i get it bad enough in spring, i can do without fall.

You know me, I am allergic to everything:) Seriously though I have both and it's not fun and I just love snow.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I could've not said anything and left you guys wondering until after the season was over. ;)


We wouldn't wonder...
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Fall is good, but my seasonal allergies are not so good. That's why I want to skip right over to winter.


Fall Alergies?
I dont have those....I guess i get it bad enough in spring, i can do without fall.
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Quoting txjac:


WX ...woke up to 67 degrees here in Houston ...I'm with you, fall is here! I love fall weather.

Actually made my first batch of homemade soup yesterday!

Fall is good, but my seasonal allergies are not so good. That's why I want to skip right over to winter.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I could've not said anything and left you guys wondering until after the season was over. ;)

That would be no fun Cody for us, we would have to keep guessing while you would be chuckling at us knowing all the answers.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting zoomiami:


Great post -- thanks for the information

You're welcome.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Fall is only 5 days away and it feels like it.

I saw we could get a couple homegrown storms from fronts this year.


WX ...woke up to 67 degrees here in Houston ...I'm with you, fall is here! I love fall weather.

Actually made my first batch of homemade soup yesterday!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
red hatch area poss flash flood area yellow hatch poss severe T-STORMS


Thanks much!
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Fall is only 5 days away and it feels like it.

I saw we could get a couple homegrown storms from fronts this year.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting wxchaser97:

I am lucky to have 2 days off and then next Wednesday off.


I know Kirk would remain a cat2 but Gordon could go either way. Anything else you would like to add Mr. know it all;)

I could've not said anything and left you guys wondering until after the season was over. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Looking better.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
Quoting Articuno:

Lucky! I only have today... but some people don't even have off.

I am lucky to have 2 days off and then next Wednesday off.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No upgrade.

Also forgot to add that Kirk will remain a Category 2 and so will Gordon.

I know Kirk would remain a cat2 but Gordon could go either way. Anything else you would like to add Mr. know it all;)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
red hatch area poss flash flood area yellow hatch poss severe T-STORMS


and all that will shift northeast Tuesday
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you think this is going to develop once it hits the water?.


I don't know. Some models suggest development.
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red hatch area poss flash flood area yellow hatch poss severe T-STORMS
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Quoting allancalderini:
and what do you say about the invest in July would it be upgrade? what do you think?

No upgrade.

Also forgot to add that Kirk will remain a Category 2 and so will Gordon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
92L may surprise some people.
Nadine is a loner.She doesn't no one :(.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting wxchaser97:

Today is dry and clear for me and I have today and tomorrow off from school:)

Lucky! I only have today... but some people don't even have off.
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Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
For the last couple hours winds at Barbados change from the S to SW @8 knots
92L may surprise some people.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Hey Keep, the dont mention what the red lines mean in your screen shot. Could you explain please?

Thanks
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For the last couple hours winds at Barbados change from the S to SW @8 knots
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Quoting Grothar:
Do you think this is going to develop once it hits the water?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.