Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
You're not even safe in your own home. These bomb threats have happened on occasion, the last couple days of my senior year at high school we had to evacuate because of these threats coming from the same phone booth. I still wonder to this day if they caught the perpatraitor? Because it became an annoyance and would happen everyday at the same time. I could literally set my watch to the time they would sound the fire alarm.
You have to be paranoid and on guard these days.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
significant threat

Looks like in the DC area too.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
What has our world come to..no where is safe now..This world continues to be crappier and crappier.The nuts are getting annoying now..
You're not even safe in your own home. These bomb threats have happened on occasion, the last couple days of my senior year at high school we had to evacuate because of these threats coming from the same phone booth. I still wonder to this day if they caught the perpatraitor? Because it became an annoyance and would happen everyday at the same time. I could literally set my watch to the time they would sound the fire alarm.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
201 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...DIGGING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH PR AND USVI LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL CHANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...REACHES PR AND
USVI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND USVI TOMORROW MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS
LIKE SAINT CROIX IS GOING TO TAKE THE BULK OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE.
THIS WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
OR SO.

TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...DIGGING
TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS IT ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CAP WILL ESTABLISH...LEADING
TO A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE TUTT MOVES
FURTHER WEST...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA BEGINNING IN TKPK AND TNCM AND SPRDG WNW TO TISX BY 18/04Z
AND TIST...TJSJ BY 18/08Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY 18/15Z. LLVL WINDS 5-15 KT FROM ENE BCMG
ESE-SE AFT 18/18Z AS WAVE AXIS PASSES THROUGH AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 90 78 89 / 50 70 50 50
STT 81 88 80 88 / 50 60 50 50
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significant threat

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
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Quoting txjac:
Off topic post ...please ignore if offended ..apologies for being off topic in advance

LSU in Louisiana now being evacuated due to bomb threats

Link

Credit Fox News
What has our world come to..no where is safe now..This world continues to be crappier and crappier.The nuts are getting annoying now..
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How's about this stat looking back at the summer: West Palm Beach set a new record-wettest summer (June-August) with 40.34 inches. The old record was 36.25 set way back in 1901!!! WOW!
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92L
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Been nice the last few days.

Took this photo on Saturday down by the water with my friend.

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Quoting txjac:
Off topic post ...please ignore if offended ..apologies for being off topic in advance

LSU in Louisiana now being evacuated due to bomb threats

Link

Credit Fox News


this is getting ridiculous....
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168. txjac
Off topic post ...please ignore if offended ..apologies for being off topic in advance

LSU in Louisiana now being evacuated due to bomb threats

Link

Credit Fox News
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Its been sunnier than expected today, CAPE aoa 2000j/kg at my house....big difference from 500 j/kg...unfortunately, no shear to take advantage of, that all comes tonight, so the CAPE will be gone by then.
Story of my severe wx life.


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What kind of severe weather is predicted for the NE and when, exactly, will it arrive?

Is it another derecho type event, with the risk of tornadoes? If so, isn't that a bit unusual, particularly at this time of year? I know there's a risk of attributing every extreme weather event to global warming, as if extreme events never happened in the past, but unusual weather is the hall mark of global warming.
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We here in D.C have appreciated the stretch of great weather.But we could also use the rain.Some people are complaining about their soil needing moisture and feeling like clay.We'll be getting a dosing tomorrow.Seems at a price though.
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lol all im saying is i wont be guessing anymore and ill be able to put up legit numbers for now on
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wont let me edit my last comment so i ment it CAN record after 125 just not as accurate...not saying ill ever been in wind that high or want to be ha
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
good afternoon everyone... just bought an Inspeed Vortex anemometer..rated up to 125 i believe but cant recored past that mph...it arrived like 3 days ago..highest gust i got was 21.7 or something near that..it does recored averages and gust. so during this winter i hopefully see noreasters here in AC, NJ..im directedly on the water so its always a stronger wind then forcasted anyday..im positive in the next 6 months to a year ill be able to get a 60+mph wind gust...tomorrows night forcast sustained 35-30 with gust to 40mph..im shooting for a 50mph gust tomorrow night..if i cant get one on the beach i can always go to a top of a large AC casino parking garage.. #DOAC

I don't think you have to worry. You wouldn't be able to hold on to that thing in a 125 mph gust. :) Is it actually that important to look at a wind gust that you want to expose yourself to dangerous weather? As far as the top of that parking garage, you'll be way above the standard 10 meters for anemometer exposure anyway, so I'm not clear what you're trying to prove, other than it sometimes gets windy in Atlantic City.
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92L moving in tandem with the ULL in the Central Caribbean and sharp trough digging down into Texas, appears to be a cut-off low which is streamlining 93L quickly off to the east, baroclinic low in nature.

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Quoting wxchaser97:
93L is dropped because it won't develop since it's too close to land and disorganized.
92L is not looking good right now, still could do something later.
Definitely has a good moisture field to survive the trek. I'm thinking development in the Western Caribbean is still possible from this.
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Quoting 7544:
looks like 92L wants to go wnw today

It looks like 92L want to go to the morgue today. :)
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good afternoon everyone... just bought an Inspeed Vortex anemometer..rated up to 125 i believe but cant recored past that mph...it arrived like 3 days ago..highest gust i got was 21.7 or something near that..it does recored averages and gust. so during this winter i hopefully see noreasters here in AC, NJ..im directedly on the water so its always a stronger wind then forcasted anyday..im positive in the next 6 months to a year ill be able to get a 60+mph wind gust...tomorrows night forcast sustained 35-30 with gust to 40mph..im shooting for a 50mph gust tomorrow night..if i cant get one on the beach i can always go to a top of a large AC casino parking garage.. #DOAC
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

WOW LOOK AT HER!!
can someone put up a vis-satellite loop of this hurricane..
I don't think its a 75 mph...closer to 100 mph instead

hmm nah I'd say 80MPH though it is getting there
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154. etxwx
Quoting txjac:
Hey, has anyone seen AtHomeInTx lately? It seems like over a week since I have seen her posting ...

I was just wondering the same thing...Hello AtHome?? Are you there?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I'm kinda expecting that we shall see conditions to get better and 92L to become better orgainised by tomorrow or Wed

I think the zero percent chance is pretty good. It has continued to deteriorate as it has moved west. Other than warm water, there's not a lot to get it going again. Lots of dry air and strong trade winds again. It seems like any storm that's going to survive this year has to be reasonably well organized before it hits 55W. 92L never made the grade.
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93L is dropped because it won't develop since it's too close to land and disorganized.
92L is not looking good right now, still could do something later.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927

WOW LOOK AT HER!!
can someone put up a vis-satellite loop of this hurricane..
I don't think its a 75 mph...closer to 100 mph instead
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150. BVI
Quoting zicoille:
Rain needed in the northern leewards islands (st-maarte, anguilla, st bart's). Please send heavy rain...


Dont forget the Virgin Islands, we really need the rain as well!!
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149. txjac
Hey, has anyone seen AtHomeInTx lately? It seems like over a week since I have seen her posting ...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
92L is definitely a goner judging by the ugly 18z numbers:

AL, 92, 2012091718, , BEST, 0, 151N, 611W, 15, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

That is, it's no longer a low, but a disturbance--a disturbance with 15 knots of wind and a pressure of 1013 mb.

I'm kinda expecting that we shall see conditions to get better and 92L to become better orgainised by tomorrow or Wed
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Rain needed in the northern leewards islands (st-maarte, anguilla, st bart's). Please send heavy rain...
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interesting NHC drops 93L and 92L off the TWO makes sence for 93L but I think they should of kept 92L and have it at either 0% or 10% well whatever I think that the NHC will bring back 92L either tomorrow or Wed morning
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92L is definitely a goner judging by the ugly 18z numbers:

AL, 92, 2012091718, , BEST, 0, 151N, 611W, 15, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

That is, it's no longer a low, but a disturbance--a disturbance with 15 knots of wind and a pressure of 1013 mb.
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Quoting ncstorm:
SPC updated map for tomorrow


Wonderful(sarcastic flag on).A few days ago the weather man said that humidity wasn't going to be a problem.Now they said we're going to have high humidity tomorrow...
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SPC discussion

...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES...

IN WAKE OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LLJ. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN WRN
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF
MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED EVOLVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG STRENGTHENING
LLJ AND WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY
INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...SERN STATES...

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
THAN FARTHER NE AS THE LLJ LIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA.
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD BREAKS AND DIABATIC WARMING...SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

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Both circles are gone, post 92L may come back though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that from the wave that is currently labeled pouch30L?.


Im not sure..I dont follow the pouches..
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No more mention of 92L,93L.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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SPC updated map for tomorrow


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Quoting StormDrain:
Kind of interesting.

USGS Release: 3-D mapping of Isaac water levels

The information gathered from this pilot project will be used by USGS to develop 3-D models of streets and structures, including the levels floodwaters reached, as well as current water levels in the form an interactive 3-D flood inundation map. The map will help identify where the potential threat of future floodwaters is greatest, and will help determine the extent of wind and flood damages caused by Isaac.

"We are collecting storm-tide information that will allow scientists to study the impacts of the storm in three dimensions," said Toby Minear, a research hydrologist at the USGS California Water Science Center, who is participating in the study. "Imagine a 360-degree panoramic photo, but made with laser points where everything you can see has a known elevation and location. These 'point clouds' can be put together to create a full 3-D map of an area containing many millions of data points."



NOLA, 8/31/12
image credit: U.S. Geological Survey/photo by Toby Minear

Good project. If this is done for every landfalling hurricane, we may finally get a better picture of storm surge risk compared to wind intensity. The NHC has been reluctant to add storm surge into the calculations for storm intensity because they have lacked exactly this kind of data.
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Quoting ncstorm:
anyone noticing the models developing a storm in the central atlantic and starts to head it towards the east coast?..of course not..12z models

JMA..you can see the storm coming into frame


GFS


Nogaps


CMC
Is that from the wave that is currently labeled pouch30L?.
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135. 7544
looks like 92L wants to go wnw today
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Quoting txjac:


WX ...woke up to 67 degrees here in Houston ...I'm with you, fall is here! I love fall weather.

Actually made my first batch of homemade soup yesterday!


I love those first few cold fronts at the end of the summer. Highs here in the upper 70s to low 80s as well and recorded 2 inches of rain since Thursday. Its great not having to run the sprinklers on my watering days.
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Can 92L give us a TS ALPHA (2005) surprise? Any IDEA
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200523.as p
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@ KeeperoftheGate

TY for NYC related graphic
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..
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Quoting sar2401:

I think that's Nadine sneaking back west. :)


Its a new storm..Nadine is heading to the azores in the GFS/Nogaps/CMC frame..
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Nadine
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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