Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012

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Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.


Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.


Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.

Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.

Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.


Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting washingtonian115:
You have to be paranoid and on guard these days.


Never be paranoid - if they are real threats, they want you to be terrified/terrorised and paranoid - be aware, be careful and stick 2 fingers up at them - they (whomever they are)must not change our way of life or they start to win.
Be aware, be on guard but carry on with life.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




that's nice thank you guys...I use photoshop CS5 and some powerpoint...
Photoshop is my passion...I've been working with it for 6 years..

I got Photoshop Elements 10 for christmas last year.

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I personally think that since yesterday 92L has made an impressive come back.I think 92L could become a significant cyclone in the WEstern Caribbean.JMO
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I wasn't suggesting the threat for tomorrow is overhyped...
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THIS IS NOT CURRENT; IT IS THE STORM OF 1993

When these lows form in the Gulf and move north and NE than can bring widespread storms to many areas. This one affected over 100 million people

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25555
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
200 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

...LANE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 127.1W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Hi friends, a bit off topic, but it seems a bit slow. I am looking for products, or ideas, that make it possible/easier to write on paper with a pencil in inclement weather, rain, snow, sleet, you name it. Any idea my weather friends? Thanks in advance. Bob.

weather writer

not an ideal solution, but perhaps it can be made to work
Thanks RiverGuy! That may be just the ticket! I'll let you know. Bob
Member Since: October 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
Quoting wxchaser97:

Those graphics are super great, I wish I could make mine like that.


Quoting Articuno:

Wow, what program do you use to make these graphics?


that's nice thank you guys...I use photoshop CS5 and some powerpoint...
Photoshop is my passion...I've been working with it for 6 years..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like the 1st nor Ester for the E coast


I was thinking about that... I hope this is not a sign for a bad winter...since last year year we didn't have much snow
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New San Juan NWS director Roberto Garcia first day in job will be September 24.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
From Liveweatherblogs.com

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25555
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Hi friends, a bit off topic, but it seems a bit slow. I am looking for products, or ideas, that make it possible/easier to write on paper with a pencil in inclement weather, rain, snow, sleet, you name it. Any idea my weather friends? Thanks in advance. Bob.

weather writer

not an ideal solution, but perhaps it can be made to work
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looks like the 1st nor Ester for the E coast
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
________________________
Hurricane Lane in the Epac....by the way Lane is a male name apparently (I was told)


click for bigger pic here..no virus risk or anything...don't worry..

Those graphics are super great, I wish I could make mine like that.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting Grothar:


I don't think it is a hype. I have been watching this for days. The system in the South is moving to the NE and will ride up against a trough. The pressure gradients in these systems often bring very high winds and unstable atmosphere. Take a look a the link.


Link
I meant the greatest threat of storm is a large area when it should be only from NYC to DC IMO... but I'm not the pro.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
________________________
Hurricane Lane in the Epac....by the way Lane is a male name apparently (I was told)


click for bigger pic here..no virus risk or anything...don't worry..

Wow, what program do you use to make these graphics?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, how is that hype?
"Greatest Threat of Storm" is a huge area... should be only from Upstate NY to Washington DC IMO.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Got to love TWC hyping it a bit...


I don't think it is a hype. I have been watching this for days. The system in the South is moving to the NE and will ride up against a trough. The pressure gradients in these systems often bring very high winds and unstable atmosphere. Take a look a the link.


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25555
Quoting txjac:
Off topic post ...please ignore if offended ..apologies for being off topic in advance

LSU in Louisiana now being evacuated due to bomb threats

Link

Credit Fox News
Only in SEC school they would evacuate the live mascot first before alerting the students... all jokes aside, this is like the 3rd threat this week. Stupid.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Got to love TWC hyping it a bit...

Lol, how is that hype?
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Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Hi friends, a bit off topic, but it seems a bit slow. I am looking for products, or ideas, that make it possible/easier to write on paper with a pencil in inclement weather, rain, snow, sleet, you name it. Any idea my weather friends? Thanks in advance. Bob.


Only one I can think of is to stay inside and write.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25555
High wind watches are being posted all the way from Louisiana to New England with gusts up to 60mph.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25555
Quoting Grothar:
Got to love TWC hyping it a bit...
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25555
Moderate risk from New York to South Carolina? Or just from Virginia to Philly? Or none at all? We'll see...

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

PRC123-172215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0337.120917T1921Z-120917T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SALINAS PR-
321 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
SALINAS

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 319 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SALINAS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. TWO
INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR MAY BE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS IS
CAUSING FLOODING OF POOR AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1794 6627 1793 6630 1796 6630 1798 6634
1800 6634 1805 6631 1810 6622 1805 6620
1806 6618 1804 6617 1801 6620 1796 6620
1792 6624 1791 6622 1791 6624

$$

ROSA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
________________________
Hurricane Lane in the Epac....by the way Lane is a male name apparently (I was told)


click for bigger pic here..no virus risk or anything...don't worry..


Amazing graphics!
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TROPICAL UPDATE
________________________
Hurricane Lane in the Epac....by the way Lane is a male name apparently (I was told)


click for bigger pic here..no virus risk or anything...don't worry..
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Quoting allancalderini:
Lane is a male name I also think it was female at first.


WHOOPS... I din't know that...
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25555
I think we are going to have to launch the ark!
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Pre-blob Alert


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25555
Hi friends, a bit off topic, but it seems a bit slow. I am looking for products, or ideas, that make it possible/easier to write on paper with a pencil in inclement weather, rain, snow, sleet, you name it. Any idea my weather friends? Thanks in advance. Bob.
Member Since: October 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
Bloomberg News
August 330th Month Above 20th-Century Average Temperature

By Brian K. Sullivan on September 17, 2012

August 2012 was the fourth-warmest August globally since 1880 and the 330th consecutive month in which temperatures worldwide were above the 20th-century average, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center said.

The average temperature on land and over the ocean was 61.2 degrees Fahrenheit (16.2 Celsius), 1.1 degree above the century’s average, the agency said today.

“Most areas of the world experienced higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including far northeastern North America, central and Southern Europe, and east-central Asia,” the agency said. “In the Arctic, sea ice extent averaged 1.82 million square miles, resulting in the all-time lowest August sea ice extent on record.”

The last time the global temperature was below the 20th century’s average was February 1985, and the last time there was a cooler-than-average August was 1976, said the agency, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In the Arctic, the six smallest amounts of sea ice have been recorded in the past six years.
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Quoting sar2401:

I don't think you have to worry. You wouldn't be able to hold on to that thing in a 125 mph gust. :) Is it actually that important to look at a wind gust that you want to expose yourself to dangerous weather? As far as the top of that parking garage, you'll be way above the standard 10 meters for anemometer exposure anyway, so I'm not clear what you're trying to prove, other than it sometimes gets windy in Atlantic City.


he's interested in this as a weather enthusiast just like myself. It is a thrill always aiming to record that higher gust, just do not put yourself in harms way to do so. Until Beryl, my highest recorded gust here near Orlando was 39.1 mph on my Kestrel 1000 in a squall line that moved through in late March of 2011-it was really windy.

I went up to Jacksonville Beach for Beryl this year and the highest gust I recorded standing on the beach was 45 mph. I later noticed my anemometer somehow became set for knots, so this reading may have been around 50 mph. It is more difficult than you would think to be in the right place at the right time to record these gusts, sounds like you have a good shot at it though.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1080
Quoting washingtonian115:
We here in D.C have appreciated the stretch of great weather.But we could also use the rain.Some people are complaining about their soil needing moisture and feeling like clay.We'll be getting a dosing tomorrow.Seems at a price though.

Looks like the both of us will get it again tomorrow haha :)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. 92L looks a million times better than yesterday, it barely had any thunderstorms at all then:



Still no chance of development though, there's nothing organized within that convection, just a rainfall enhancer for the Caribbean and maybe Florida eventually.


is Cariboy finally get some rain out of this!? LOL
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

WOW LOOK AT HER!!
can someone put up a vis-satellite loop of this hurricane..
I don't think its a 75 mph...closer to 100 mph instead
Lane is a male name I also think it was female at first.
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0% on 92L is a little high imo.
I'd give it a negative 20% chance if it was possible.
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189. 7544
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. 92L looks a million times better than yesterday, it barely had any thunderstorms at all then:



Still no chance of development though, there's nothing organized within that convection, just a rainfall enhancer for the Caribbean and maybe Florida eventually.


yeap it becoming a blob now agree if it holds together wait and watch
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Good afternoon. 92L looks a million times better than yesterday, it barely had any thunderstorms at all then:



Still no chance of development though, there's nothing organized within that convection, just a rainfall enhancer for the Caribbean and maybe Florida eventually.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7642
Quoting GTcooliebai:
LOL, it might be too late for a full fledge El Nino to take place, at least in terms of the rest of the hurricane season. I think this year has behaved more like a Neutral Warm year. A couple things that resemble El Nino conditions that we have seen this year is lack of development in the MDR and fast trade winds in the Caribbean.


Looking ahead,it seems like the 2013 Atlantic season will be influenced by Neutral ENSO.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
186. MTWX
Quoting yonzabam:
What kind of severe weather is predicted for the NE and when, exactly, will it arrive?

Is it another derecho type event, with the risk of tornadoes? If so, isn't that a bit unusual, particularly at this time of year? I know there's a risk of attributing every extreme weather event to global warming, as if extreme events never happened in the past, but unusual weather is the hall mark of global warming.


Excerpt from the SPC outlook:

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY
INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
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Quoting StormDrain:
Kind of interesting.

USGS Release: 3-D mapping of Isaac water levels

thanks for sharing this!
i passed that on to my wife, working on a PhD in remote sensing :)
(edit: apparently she already checked it out on Twitter :P)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You have to be paranoid and on guard these days.


There's something happening here.
What it is ain't exactly clear.
There's a man with a gun over there.
Telling me i got to beware.

Its time we stop, hey, what's that sound?
Everybody look what's going down.

Paranoia strikes deep.
Into your heart it will creep.
It happens when you're always afraid.

Step out of line and the man comes to take you away.

-For What It's Worth
Buffalo Springfield

Video of the song
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
CPC 9/17/12 update has Nino 3.4 cooling down from 0.8C to 0.5C.

Link
LOL, it might be too late for a full fledge El Nino to take place, at least in terms of the rest of the hurricane season. I think this year has behaved more like a Neutral Warm year. A couple things that resemble El Nino conditions that we have seen this year is lack of development in the MDR and fast trade winds in the Caribbean.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
CPC 9/17/12 update has Nino 3.4 cooling down from +0.8C to +0.5C.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You're not even safe in your own home. These bomb threats have happened on occasion, the last couple days of my senior year at high school we had to evacuate because of these threats coming from the same phone booth. I still wonder to this day if they caught the perpatraitor? Because it became an annoyance and would happen everyday at the same time. I could literally set my watch to the time they would sound the fire alarm.
You have to be paranoid and on guard these days.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.