Category 1 Typhoon Sanba hits Korea; 92L and 93L not a threat
Typhoon Sanba battered South Korea on Sunday as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 69 mph, to Busan, South Korea, and heavy rains of 8.82" (212 mm) fell in 12 hours at Jeju, an island just south of the South Korean coast. Sanba is being blamed for two deaths and widespread power outages in South Korea and Southern Japan. Sanba has weakened to a tropical storm, and is lashing the North Korea and neighboring regions of China and Russia with heavy rains today. There are concerns that Sanba's rains will aggravate the food situation in North Korea, where two-thirds of the country's 24 million people are dealing with chronic food shortages. In August, Typhoon Bolaven flooded 127,500 acres of farmland in North Korea, and killed 59 in the country. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, flooding 370 homes, mostly on the northern end of the island. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s), and 7 inches of rain fell on the island. Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012.
Figure 1. Huge waves pound Yeosu City, South Korea, on September 17, 2012, as Category 1 Typhoon Sanba makes landfall. AP photo.
Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba at landfall in South Korea at 9:50 am local time Monday September 17, 2012. Image credit: Korean Meteorological Agency.
Invest 92L in the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) bringing a few heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph. The wave is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this morning, though. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will be light to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, and Western Cuba on Saturday. None of the reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 0% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, but these odds will probably rise as 92L reaches the Central Caribbean on Wednesday.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.
Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico no threat
An area of low pressure in the Northern Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast (Invest 93L) is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is moving inland, and development into a tropical depression will not occur.
Nadine may be around another week
Long-lived Tropical Storm Nadine has already been around a week, and may stick around at least another week, as it heads east-northeastward on a track that will bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will move slowly and erratically for many days in the Central Atlantic late this week and early next week. On Friday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and the storm may partially or fully convert to an extratropical storm. By this weekend, Nadine is expected to drift southwestward, and could become fully tropical again.
Figure 4. Hurricane Nadine as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 9:45 am EDT Sunday September 16, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength--a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I said it would be cool to see snow but it is the middle of September so it wouldn't happen.
We got almost 3" at my place between about 5 pm yesterday through this morning from this system!
However we have a bunch of nothing happening out there. I hope it stays that way.
MSLP and surface wind, SPC mesoanalysis pages, EC sector
Most unstable CAPE, CIN (convective inhibition), and Effective Bulk shear in knots.
(These images will update. I hope)
Lots of locations in northern Minnesota dropped to 32F overnight..no moisture around, though.
I hope nothing happens, Isaac was enough for people.
7 days out, I'd still judge getting a pattern change, frontal passage, and cooldown correct as "good". Missing the intensity a tad, and maybe misjudging precip - that will happen on a 7-day forecast.
Here in Houston, the NWS office rarely places anything more than a 50% chance of rain more than 5 days out for the same reason - it is just that hard to call. If I see a forecast for freezing temps 7 days out, I just mentally make a note of it and check again in 3 days. I don't take it "seriously" until 2 days out, by which time the front projected to push the cold air through has already formed.
As another case in point - If I followed every 7 day forecast, and judged them as "right" or "wrong" based on temps and precip, I would find they are wrong a majority of the time. If I went by overall patterns and large-scale changes - I would find they are right a vast majority of the time. On the same page, if I did the same thing for 2 and 3 day forecasts... the NWS would be right a majority of the time on temps (allowing them a 5-degree window).
My point is that saying they were "completely" wrong with a 7-day forecast is kinda like accusing someone of being a terrible prognosticator of football scores for Sunday's game... on Monday a week before.
WHAT IT BOILS DOWN TO, BE SAFE N KEEP A EYE OUT... just my 2cents
WTNT34 KNHC 181439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012
...NADINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 32.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 181439
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 127.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 90SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 127.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.9W
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012
THE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE
SOUTH...IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER EASIER. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT...THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCTION IN THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND
T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT LANE RECENTLY SHOWED AN EYE
FEATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. LANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE
NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS IT POLEWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING ENSUES. BY
24 HOURS...THE SHALLOW VORTEX OF A SEVERELY WEAKENED LANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD
INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM TV15.
STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS LANE MOVES OVER SHARPLY COOLER SSTS OF LESS THAN 22C...
AND ALSO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
MORE THAN 25 KT. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER FOR
BOTH SCENARIOS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 20.1N 127.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 20.9N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.5N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
The usual cold spot in northern Minnesota (where an observer is located) reported 20 degrees overnight. Many reports of mid-20s. Embarrass' report this morning @ 06:00 Hi/Lo/Precip:
EMBM5: EMBARRASS: DH0600/ 51 / 20 / 0.00
Morning cooperative reports:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=dlh& product=RTP&issuedby=DLH
Even had some 20's and low 30's inland across northern Wisconsin. Luckily, being close to the big Lake, I had 39 for low. More cold forecast for tonight. My tomatoes are not quite ready.
I belive that the Cape Verde season is over. I don't expect anything to form in the next 7 days. I expect to see 3-5 more storms. From the period of 9-25 to 10-31. Need to watch the Western Caribbean, GOM, and off the SE coast to the Bahamas. I also think we will see a meaninless storm form out in the middle of the Atlantic.
Any record lows?
Whoa, when did he say that, where would it be, and how much?
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT TUE 18 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-122
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA872--
A. 20/0000Z
B. NA872 0314A NADINE
C. 19/1800Z
D. 37.0N 31.6W
E. 20/0000Z TO 20/1245Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FEET
G. PATTERN: 6 E-W LEGS IN BOX 600 NM
SQUARE, ENTRY POINT 32.0N 36.0W
78 DROPSONDE RELEASES
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
UNLESS MISSION IN ITEM 1 ABOVE CANCELS,
IN WHICH CASE NEW TAKEOFF TIME WILL BE
20/1230Z.
Possible, although in that area, this time of year, those are reasonable minimum temps. The local NWS office didn't release any record statements this morning, at least not yet. First frost across the inland areas of my county is September 15th. Despite my protests, this is right on time.
There was a record report from yesterday morning:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
124 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 41 SET IN 1958.
There were even lake-effect rain and clouds in the forecast along the lake shore counties overnight due to the cold air coming across the warm lake surface. Not sure why, but instead we had clear skies overnight. Western Lake Superior doesn't seem very warm, it may not provide the usual protection from cold fall nights this year.
I'm not saying either will develop, and I'm not saying that even if they do they'll come anywhere near anyone. I'm just highlighting the fact that there are still waves moving offshore, and conditions are still good enough.
24-Hour Rainfall Total
(as of 11:00 a.m. EDT)
Knoxville, Tenn.
5.63 inches
Chattanooga, Tenn.
5.30 inches
Oak Ridge, Tenn.
4.63 inches
London, Ky.
3.77 inches
Asheville, N.C.
3.65 inches
Huntington, W.Va.
2.58 inches
well spent taxpayers money
A week ago, and he was 100 % wrong.
"Very deep Long Wave pattern setting up for USA w/HOT WX 4PAC northwest &cold w/lght #snow 4Great Lakes by next weekend:"
That record low was actually from August 17, and, knowing how cold they are, I am still surprised that 41 F was a record low in International Falls on that date.
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