Category 2 Sanba closes in on Korea; 92L enters the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on September 16, 2012

Share this Blog
33
+

The winds are rising in Busan, South Korea, and heavy rain is lashing the Korean Peninsula and Southern Japan as Category 2 Typhoon Sanba steams northwards at 22 mph. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, but no casualties or heavy damage has been reported thus far. Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba passed over the northern part of Okinawa. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced the eyewall, and recorded a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s). At Kadena Air Force Base, the eye of Sanba missed, passing just to the north. The winds peaked at 56 mph, gusting to 77 mph, at 8:30 am local time, after the eye passed to the northeast, and the base received 6.30" of rain. High wind shear of 25 - 35 knots is now affecting Sanba, and satellite loops show that the typhoon is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and dry air wrapping into the core. Radar out of Korea shows that heavy rains from Sanba cover most of the Korean Peninsula, and heavy rain is likely to be the main threat from Sanba in Korea. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear today, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 22 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba over Okinawa at 6:25 am local time Sunday September 16, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Raw video of Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa, taken by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012 (there were two Category 5 storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific.) The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA. NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory has a spectacular large-scale image of Sanba at Category 5 strength.

Invest 92L entering the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) entering the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the islands today. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased since Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will fall to the 10 - 15 knot range Monday through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday, Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Saturday. The 06Z run of the NOGAPS models indicates some weak development of 92L once it reaches the Western Caribbean, but none of the other reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, if necessary.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.


Hurricane Nadine headed towards the Azores Islands
Hurricane Nadine is heading eastward on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday. However, steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 809 - 759

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

809. sheople
3:01 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Good morning, I am wondering if anyone has done any investigating as to the reason for the polar ice caps severe melting? Any insight or observations?

this link is what got my curiosity

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dR7IlDKzd90

sorry if I'm way of topic but if anyone knows I would think you guys would.

Thanks
Member Since: September 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
808. CaribBoy
2:50 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting BVI:


If you get some of the rain make sure it then comes to us!!


:-)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
807. GeoffreyWPB
2:49 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Corrected Recon...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CCA
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-121 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NA872 MISSION
TO NADINE TAKEOFF 19/1800Z
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
806. allancalderini
2:48 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
She's certainly trying

He I also thought it was a girls name at first.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3704
805. wxchaser97
2:48 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
Nadine has lost most of her convection


She is turning extra-tropical but the Azores will still see impacts.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
804. FtMyersgal
2:45 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Link
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
803. TomTaylor
2:45 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
lol nvm, new blog
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
802. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
801. BVI
2:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting CaribBoy:
STILL NOT A DROP FROM 92L HERE AT 18N63W. WHAT'S GOING ON? I SEE EVERYTHING IS GOIGN THROUGH MARTINIQUE/DOMINICA/GUADELOUPE AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THEY ALREADY HAD RAIN YESTERDAY..... LOTS OF IT. NATURE REALLY GIVES US NO CHANCE!


If you get some of the rain make sure it then comes to us!!
Member Since: April 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
800. TomTaylor
2:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
x
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
799. TomTaylor
2:39 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Is lane developing an eye like feature?
She's certainly trying

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
798. LostTomorrows
2:38 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Seems our two areas, including Nadine, have been working on making quite the comeback since I last checked. Nadine looks like a hurricane again.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 558
797. TomTaylor
2:37 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Nadine has lost most of her convection

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
796. TomTaylor
2:36 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Morning everyone
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
795. CaribBoy
2:28 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
STILL NOT A DROP FROM 92L HERE AT 18N63W. WHAT'S GOING ON? I SEE EVERYTHING IS GOIGN THROUGH MARTINIQUE/DOMINICA/GUADELOUPE AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THEY ALREADY HAD RAIN YESTERDAY..... LOTS OF IT. NATURE REALLY GIVES US NO CHANCE!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5589
794. etxwx
2:26 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Updated news from Yonhap news service on Sanba's Korean landfall. Sadly one person has lost their life in a landslide. The article mentions it is the first time in 50 years that the peninsula has been drenched by four typhoons in a single year.

One dead as Typhoon Sanba slams southern S. Korea
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1214
793. HurricaneDean07
2:26 PM GMT on September 17, 2012




Current-
14/8/1

Forecasted Final Total for the season:

17/9/2-4(Assuming Gordon and/or Kirk is upgraded to a Major Hurricane)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
792. guygee
2:23 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
(In Post 517) Quoting clamshell:
[...]Are we just like that when we look at the weather and attempt to predict what, when and where, as it relates to hurricanes?
In other words, are we too close to the subject to really see it for what it is?
You have a valid point, but science is still the best method we have found to sort out the fiction from the truth.

Karl Popper wrote on the philosophy of science and addressed some of these points a long time ago, it is worthwhile to go back and read him and a few of his critics.

(wiki link on Karl Popper)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
791. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:23 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Is lane developing an eye like feature?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
790. GeoffreyWPB
2:21 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NADINE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA872--
A. 19/0000Z
B. NOAA872 0314A NADINE
C. 18/1800Z
D. 37.0N 31.0W
E. 19/0000Z TO 19/1200Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FEET
G. PATTERN: 6 E-W LEGS IN BOX 600 NM
SQUARE, ENTRY POINT 32.0N 37.0W
78 DROPSONDE RELEASES

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
789. HurricaneDean07
2:21 PM GMT on September 17, 2012


Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
788. GeorgiaStormz
2:18 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Nationally note the remnants of Kristy in the EPac showing up:


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
787. HurricaneDean07
2:15 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
MJO will be back at the end of the month.


Good Morning Everyone.
I'm sick, but wanted to check in really briefly.
93L is no threat what-so-ever, besides unwanted heavy rain for Louisiana and Mississippi.

My guess is that 92L will be under the radar and will build up under the Anticyclone and form once it reaches the Western Caribbean. And become Tropical Storm Oscar before revurving through the Gulf, with Florida and Cuba being the main targets.

With the MJO returning we will probably see the monsoonal trough pick back up and much more Homegrown development...
Pouch 30L is probably going to be our last Cape Verde storm of the season, and from then on out we will turn our focus back toward the monsoonal developments and trough splits from these digging troughs that are blowing through Gulf more hastily now.

Outlook for the rest of the season:
Oscar- 92L
Patty- Pouch 30L
(Could be vise-versa for the above)
Rafael- Monsoonal development in the caribbean at END of September or Early October.
Sandy- Trough split or Monsoonal development in October
Tony- Trough split in Late October.
Valerie- Trough split or Monsoonal in November?

I foresee I very quick shutdown of the Atlantic where storms will be much more scarce and further apart.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
786. GeorgiaStormz
2:14 PM GMT on September 17, 2012



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
785. Jedkins01
2:10 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Rainfall from the gulf coast system is being downplayed for the gulf coast and Florida.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
784. Msdrown
2:07 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
G-morning all. Haven't been on since Isaac. Just finished repairs and cleaning.

I see 92L now heading west. Wanted to wait for the Doc's update but couldn't anymore. Anyone think this has any GOM desire in it? I hope TX then the great plains, they need it.

93L is just a rainmaker. It's giving me some now and will through the day but gone tommorrow.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 255
783. islander101010
2:06 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
looks as if 93 has energized the mid-upper low near texas.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
782. Neapolitan
1:57 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting captainktainer:


And what climatological background do you have to make that assertion? Paleoclimatological data shows unprecedented warming of polar ocean sea surface temperatures in post-industrial times (c.f. Crosta et al. 2004, Nielsen et al. 2004, and others), significantly extending our ability to assign significance to more than thirty three years of daily-collected data - data that shows extraordinary sea ice loss.

A sample size of thirty is enough for statistical significance given a strong effect size and low noise. The supporting evidence of extraordinary and sustained permafrost melt, ice pack melt, and Arctic biological migration - none of which show up to anywhere near the current extent in the paleoclimatological record in at least the last million years - are just icing on the cake.
Some people just don't like facts, captain. It's not that they don't see those facts; it's they don't like what those facts are showing them. And simply denying those facts is, unfortunately, the most effective coping strategy they know. Sad, yes. But all too prevalent in certain ideological circles, I'm afraid...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13271
781. guygee
1:57 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting bappit:
Isn't that from Monday Morning Fever?
lol - AH, AH, AH, AH, sort of alive, sort of alive.
Good one.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
780. stormwatcherCI
1:57 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now it's trying to build a anti cyclone.Seems it wants to act up.The eastern caribbean should finish it off though.NHC may keep a watchful eye to see if it may act up in the W.C.
Don't be too sure yet that the eastern Caribbean will kill ir=t off. It is not common but storms have developed there.

Link
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
779. GeoffreyWPB
1:56 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
93L back up on the Floater page...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
778. GeoffreyWPB
1:54 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
777. 7544
1:52 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
93L growing in size at this hour

92L looking better too
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
776. gbreezegirl
1:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
It is coming a flood here near Pensacola. UGH! Figures just got my sprinklers fixed.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
775. captainktainer
1:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
703 - Those remote sensing systems measuring Arctic ice volume, area, and extent only show ice data from 1979. This time frame is far to inconclusive to show any significant correlations.


And what climatological background do you have to make that assertion? Paleoclimatological data shows unprecedented warming of polar ocean sea surface temperatures in post-industrial times (c.f. Crosta et al. 2004, Nielsen et al. 2004, and others), significantly extending our ability to assign significance to more than thirty three years of daily-collected data - data that shows extraordinary sea ice loss.

A sample size of thirty is enough for statistical significance given a strong effect size and low noise. The supporting evidence of extraordinary and sustained permafrost melt, ice pack melt, and Arctic biological migration - none of which show up to anywhere near the current extent in the paleoclimatological record in at least the last million years - are just icing on the cake.
Member Since: October 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
774. 7544
1:40 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:


If it manages to keep building convection it could get interesting, specially with an anticyclone on top of it. Bring on the rain! :)


yeap will there still be model runs on it latter on today tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
773. JLPR2
1:36 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
92L back up on the Floater page...



If it manages to keep building convection it could get interesting, specially with an anticyclone on top of it. Bring on the rain! :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
772. Neapolitan
1:35 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
I guess the ATCF was being a bit too aggressive with 93L; it's just been lowered a little (see comment #749):

AL, 93, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 285N, 935W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13271
771. wxchaser97
1:35 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Good morning everyone, great to see Wash back. I think Nadine is extra-tropical or sub-tropical right now or at least making the transition.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
770. GeoffreyWPB
1:30 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
92L back up on the Floater page...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
769. Tazmanian
1:26 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Wounder if there is even a close low with 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
768. SFLWeatherman
1:26 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
767. SFLWeatherman
1:24 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Why is it going back up to a cat 1?????
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
766. bappit
1:24 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:


Sort of alive.

Isn't that from Monday Morning Fever?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5560
765. 7544
1:23 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:




The nhc may have too bump 93L back up


93L still in the water there blowing up at this hour heading for the panhandle

92L making a nother try also might be back to 10 % latter imo

new blob in the bahamas today moving wnw hmm
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
764. SFLWeatherman
1:23 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
763. bappit
1:20 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
703 - Those remote sensing systems measuring Arctic ice volume, area, and extent only show ice data from 1979. This time frame is far to inconclusive to show any significant correlations.

LOL

Back on it I see.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5560
762. SFLWeatherman
1:19 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
761. SLU
1:19 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
17/0600 UTC 31.7N 37.2W TX.X/X.X NADINE
16/2345 UTC 31.5N 38.6W T3.5/4.0 NADINE
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4731
760. washingtonian115
1:16 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting JLPR2:


That was actually Nadine's anticlone, it inherited it. :P

Bummer for 92L that it took so long to collocate with it.
It could have been a 92L/T.D 7/Helene repeat.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
759. JasonRE
1:12 PM GMT on September 17, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:




93L has a 0 percent. Of forming.


But what about the rain associated with it?
Member Since: August 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

Viewing: 809 - 759

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.