Category 2 Sanba closes in on Korea; 92L enters the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on September 16, 2012

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The winds are rising in Busan, South Korea, and heavy rain is lashing the Korean Peninsula and Southern Japan as Category 2 Typhoon Sanba steams northwards at 22 mph. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, but no casualties or heavy damage has been reported thus far. Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba passed over the northern part of Okinawa. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced the eyewall, and recorded a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s). At Kadena Air Force Base, the eye of Sanba missed, passing just to the north. The winds peaked at 56 mph, gusting to 77 mph, at 8:30 am local time, after the eye passed to the northeast, and the base received 6.30" of rain. High wind shear of 25 - 35 knots is now affecting Sanba, and satellite loops show that the typhoon is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and dry air wrapping into the core. Radar out of Korea shows that heavy rains from Sanba cover most of the Korean Peninsula, and heavy rain is likely to be the main threat from Sanba in Korea. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear today, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 22 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba over Okinawa at 6:25 am local time Sunday September 16, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Raw video of Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa, taken by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012 (there were two Category 5 storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific.) The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA. NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory has a spectacular large-scale image of Sanba at Category 5 strength.

Invest 92L entering the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) entering the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the islands today. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased since Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will fall to the 10 - 15 knot range Monday through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday, Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Saturday. The 06Z run of the NOGAPS models indicates some weak development of 92L once it reaches the Western Caribbean, but none of the other reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, if necessary.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.


Hurricane Nadine headed towards the Azores Islands
Hurricane Nadine is heading eastward on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday. However, steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting guygee:
That would be 2002 Hurricane Kyle with 89 advisories, including a classic from Avila that was like, "I give up!"


Worldwide Hurricane John (1994), IIRC 104 advisories issued by NHC, CPHC and JTWC.
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708. keenu
Why the GFS model for Europe is not actuall since 9/11 ?
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92l keeping S of PR & DR



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Each invest went down by 10%:



0% for 92L & 10% for 93L
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
compare ice minimum year 2007/2012

Nice comparison Keeper. Big loss in extent for 2012, even bigger loss in ice volume and multi-year ice. Notice the tongue of ice near NE Greenland in both years is near normal extents...that is where ice gets pushed out into the warmer Atlantic by the cross-polar flow.

Edit - The climate models have been way too conservative with the loss of Arctic ice in the summer, since all of the positive feedbacks are not taken into account.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
One of the 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE That is 92L


That front looks poised to clear the Florida Peninsula!!!
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Quoting canehater1:
Hurricane Nadine headed towards the Azores Islands...
Got me to wondering...what is the record for the
number of advisories issued for a Tropical Cyclone?
That would be 2002 Hurricane Kyle with 89 advisories, including a classic from Avila that was like, "I give up!"
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Hurricane Nadine headed towards the Azores Islands
Hurricane Nadine is heading eastward on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday. However, steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

From Dr. M.

Got me to wondering...what is the record for the
number of advisories issued for a Tropical Cyclone?
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Diverting from the tropics just for a moment...Interesting storms in the Arctic. A sub-985 mb low over western Alaska and another strong sub-990 mb low just north of Norway, separated by a +1030 mb high just north of central Siberia. It is possible that some more ice could be getting pushed out into the Atlantic near NE Greenland and along with the winds generated this could prolong the Arctic Ocean melt season just a little longer, even though surface air temperatures are generally below freezing north of 80N and getting colder.

We should be getting very close to the minimum now in any event.
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Quoting auburn:


Storm drain..what way does it spin after a big rain in the Northern hemisphere?


technically, it's too weak to feel the force of the Coriolis.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well, from what I have read for you and others in your area I would say that so far, it has been pretty dry year.
xD

Hopefully rain will reach you soon, crossing my fingers 92L explodes a la Emily(2011), bringing lots of beneficial rain to your area.


Thanks for your kind wishes :-) It may be a bit premature to think about next year.. but I really think it won't be an EL NINO one. 2010 and 2011 were LA NINA, and I can tell the weather was much wetter (and interesting) with above average rain. I enjoyed these years lol.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey, I got a sprinkle on the way home from work today! It has convection. :D

I think you must have been under the one cell that had any activity then. :) I know the NHC is a lot smarter than me but namimg 93L an invest seems like it was a bit premature. There still doesn't seem to be enough model runs for an ensemble forecast. I don't know what the criteria is for designating an invest, but I would think some reliable models picking up an AOI must be one of them.
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695. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:
I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK ABOUT 2012 CONCERNING THE THE LEEWARDS.


Well, from what I have read for you and others in your area I would say that so far, it has been pretty dry year.
xD

Hopefully rain will reach you soon, crossing my fingers 92L explodes a la Emily(2011), bringing lots of beneficial rain to your area.
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Quoting sar2401:

I don't think it has a BEST track. :) Although it looks like a smoking pile of doggy-doo now, I'll still wait until I see how the thing (doesn't deserve blob unless Gro corrects me) reacts to the front coming down before putting a stake in its heart.


Hey, I got a sprinkle on the way home from work today! It has convection. :D
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Quoting wxchaser97:

With not much change, still waiting for 93L's BEST track.

I don't think it has a BEST track. :) Although it looks like a smoking pile of doggy-doo now, I'll still wait until I see how the thing (doesn't deserve blob unless Gro corrects me) reacts to the front coming down before putting a stake in its heart.
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692. auburn (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:

It'll be there tomorrow. We stole tonight's rain from you :) I swear, I don't understand what comes out of Birmingham sometimes. They issued an areal flood warning for Autauga County just as the rain was coming to an end and the storms are dissipating. I heard Prattville PD dispatch on the scanner asking for any reports of flooding because BMX was on the phone begging for some reports. Of course, there isn't any. :)

I hope Wash is back also. All of us get a bit testy at times, but I didn't see the exchange that apparently caused the problem. Still, sometimes it's nice to show some tolerance for long-time members who might just be having a bad day. I use the report button very sparingly.


Yep me too..I just wish for one time when they say its gonna rain it would...LOL
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Quoting auburn:

waiting on the rain!!!come on rain!
Yea she called me Honey...well then Booboo..


Reminds me of some of my friends back in the '60's.
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Blog update.
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Quoting auburn:

waiting on the rain!!!come on rain!
Yea she called me Honey...well then Booboo..

It'll be there tomorrow. We stole tonight's rain from you :) I swear, I don't understand what comes out of Birmingham sometimes. They issued an areal flood warning for Autauga County just as the rain was coming to an end and the storms are dissipating. I heard Prattville PD dispatch on the scanner asking for any reports of flooding because BMX was on the phone begging for some reports. Of course, there isn't any. :)

I hope Wash is back also. All of us get a bit testy at times, but I didn't see the exchange that apparently caused the problem. Still, sometimes it's nice to show some tolerance for long-time members who might just be having a bad day. I use the report button very sparingly.
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Sanba officially inland
17/0232 UTC 34.9N 128.1E OVERLAND SANBA -- West Pacific

I got a boost of energy that is allowing me to stay up a little longer.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
687. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:
I hope she'll be back, too. She was fun.

waiting on the rain!!!come on rain!
Yea she called me Honey...well then Booboo..
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I hope she'll be back, too. She was fun.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Wait, he had something happen to his house? Now I'll have to call.
I believe he has some damage pics posted on his blog. and pic of the 5 pups. back to lurking.....
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684. 7544
looks like we might see a new carb. blob soon ?
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Quoting BDAwx:


Yeah, I looked into that a while ago, I think its a combination of the locations not reporting during the worst of the winds (ie. only doing hourly reports so they miss the worst) and local lee effects (ie. steep valleys and hills). But I found a sustained wind of 101mph in South Korea via Wunderground.
The Korean Meteorological Administration has a more in depth look at weather stations in the Korean version...but navigating in Korean is hard lol. I just think its strange that the wundermap sometimes says one thing then the station history that it links you to says something else.


101 mph sustained from a typhoon classified as 100 mph, that is not what I would expect, huh. Even more interesting is that the 101 mph report happened to occur right at one of the every three hour reports. I understand what you mean about the reporting stations.
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Quoting ncstorm:
just read back on the blog..this is what I hate about this blog, the little immature cliques go in and minus people's comments out and now I read Wash has a temp ban but yet the usual suspects are still here blogging..she wasnt talking to herself and I dont even see where it was justified in her being banned..this is why we dont need bloggers on here being admin..

I have my same/similar age friends on here, but I don't want cliques and stuff. That is for high school and middle school, trust me I see it all the time and it really is annoying. I really like Wash and wasn't the person who minused or reported here. She has always been a good blogger and I hope the ban isn't long and she comes back.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
If I am ban then let it be but admin I know Washingtonian115 was a little alter today but don`t you think a permanent ban is too much. many in here we appreciate her and she had a lot of knowledge.can you please do something for her.thanks
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Quoting ncstorm:
just read back on the blog..this is what I hate about this blog, the little immature cliques go in and minus people's comments
I don't know about you, but I'm part of no such clique. I hate elitism just as much as you do.
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Nadine is starting to get the look from being up that far north, she will turn extra-tropical in a few days.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
678. BDAwx
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


The highest wind observation I see currently in South Korea according to Wunderground is 46 mph at Busan Airport and Masan. I would not even expect to see any sustained hurricane force winds observations from land (except I am sure some will be reported to have occurred at isolated locations after the fact). The western eye-wall of then category 4 Typhoon Sanba moved right over the observation station at Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa, and the highest winds during the entire storm were 53 gusting to 71 mph. Not even a hurricane force gust at this official station in the eye-wall of a category 4 typhoon! I have often noticed this in other tropical cyclones.


Yeah, I looked into that a while ago, I think its a combination of the locations not reporting during the worst of the winds (ie. only doing hourly reports so they miss the worst) and local lee effects (ie. steep valleys and hills). But I found a sustained wind of 101mph in South Korea via Wunderground.
The Korean Meteorological Administration has a more in depth look at weather stations in the Korean version...but navigating in Korean is hard lol. I just think its strange that the wundermap sometimes says one thing then the station history that it links you to says something else.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


The highest wind observation I see currently in South Korea according to Wunderground is 46 mph at Busan Airport and Masan. I would not even expect to see any sustained hurricane force winds observations from land (except I am sure some will be reported to have occurred at isolated locations after the fact). The western eye-wall of then category 4 Typhoon Sanba moved right over the observation station at Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa, and the highest winds during the entire storm were 53 gusting to 71 mph. Not even a hurricane force gust at this official station in the eye-wall of a category 4 typhoon! I have often noticed this in other tropical cyclones.


I have to make a correction to the above information. The 53 gusting to 71 peak wind was actually from Naha, Okinawa on the western end of the island. This part of the island did NOT get the eye-wall of Sanba. I actually found that the highest sustained wind at Camp Hansen Range Control was 75 mph (gusts are not reported here apparently). Still, this station was for sure in the western eye-wall and one would expect much higher winds.
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676. auburn (Mod)
Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.


Naa I bet she will be back..she called me HONEY..did ya see?now i am gonna get banned...LOL)
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just read back on the blog..this is what I hate about this blog, the little immature cliques go in and minus people's comments out and now I read Wash has a temp ban but yet the usual suspects are still here blogging..she wasnt talking to herself and I dont even see where it was justified in her being banned..this is why we dont need bloggers on here being admin..
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track came out very late for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 561W, 20, 1011, LO


lol what a joke this thing
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track came out very late for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 561W, 20, 1011, LO

With not much change, still waiting for 93L's BEST track.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Quoting Articuno:

WHAT..?

One of the only ppl near me is banned.

She doesn't, imo, deserve to be banned or at least not forever. Hopefully she will be able to come back.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
00z Best Track came out very late for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 135N, 561W, 20, 1011, LO
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how do you know its permanent
could be just a temp thing
sorta like a time out if u will

maybe maybe not we will see

hopefully
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Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.

WHAT..?

One of the only ppl near me is banned.
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I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK ABOUT 2012 CONCERNING THE THE LEEWARDS.
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<
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Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.


how do you know its permanent
could be just a temp thing
sorta like a time out if u will

maybe maybe not we will see

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Quoting Civicane49:

Nothing, nothingness, very poor for being near the peak of the season.
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Quoting BDAwx:
Does anyone have access to observations from South Korea (more user friendly than this) where Typhoon Sanba is making landfall with 100mph winds?


The highest wind observation I see currently in South Korea according to Wunderground is 46 mph at Busan Airport and Masan. I would not even expect to see any sustained hurricane force winds observations from land (except I am sure some will be reported to have occurred at isolated locations after the fact). The western eye-wall of then category 4 Typhoon Sanba moved right over the observation station at Camp Hansen Range Control in Okinawa, and the highest winds during the entire storm were 53 gusting to 71 mph. Not even a hurricane force gust at this official station in the eye-wall of a category 4 typhoon! I have often noticed this in other tropical cyclones.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

...NADINE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 38.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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I noticed that during the "skirmish", a comment was removed. I guess a line was crossed.
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Quoting eliteforecaster:
Well one thing has changed. Washingtonian115 is now permanently banned. Although she was just in a little skirmish, I am struggling to understand why this minor misbehavior deserves a permanent ban...

Hopefully I won't be banned for commenting on this ban, but I felt something had to be said.

It doesn't say permanently banned, just banned so maybe it's only temporary. I will miss here, feel bad that I played a roll, and I'm sorry.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
The authorities issued typhoon advisories for most part of the country including Seoul, where up to 30 meters per second of wind and 150 millimeters of rain are expected.
i have 2 friends that are from korea , i asked. how does one know a really big storm is approaching? they said, let the 13 , 14 year old ones that can understand that with all that wisdom they have learned in the past,we let them play in the wind,if they sway , its a storm,if they tumble down the street, its a windstorm. if , its a really big storm, they stay inside,,and learn. respect.... doubt , that happens here .
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.