Category 2 Sanba closes in on Korea; 92L enters the Lesser Antilles
The winds are rising in Busan, South Korea, and heavy rain is lashing the Korean Peninsula and Southern Japan as Category 2 Typhoon Sanba steams northwards at 22 mph. Sanba pounded Okinawa, Japan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, but no casualties or heavy damage has been reported thus far. Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba passed over the northern part of Okinawa. Oku, on the northern tip of the island, experienced the eyewall, and recorded a gust of 124 mph (55.3 m/s). At Kadena Air Force Base, the eye of Sanba missed, passing just to the north. The winds peaked at 56 mph, gusting to 77 mph, at 8:30 am local time, after the eye passed to the northeast, and the base received 6.30" of rain. High wind shear of 25 - 35 knots is now affecting Sanba, and satellite loops show that the typhoon is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and dry air wrapping into the core. Radar out of Korea shows that heavy rains from Sanba cover most of the Korean Peninsula, and heavy rain is likely to be the main threat from Sanba in Korea. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear today, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 22 UTC on Sunday.
Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba over Okinawa at 6:25 am local time Sunday September 16, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Video 1. Raw video of Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa, taken by storm chaser James Reynolds.
Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
Sanba became a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14, making it Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012 (there were two Category 5 storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific.) The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.
Figure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA. NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory has a spectacular large-scale image of Sanba at Category 5 strength.
Invest 92L entering the Lesser Antilles
A tropical wave (Invest 92L) entering the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the islands today. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased since Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will fall to the 10 - 15 knot range Monday through Wednesday, which will favor development. However, the atmosphere over the Caribbean is unusually dry and stable, and this will make it difficult for 92L to organize quickly. 92L will bring heavy rain showers to the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday, Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Thursday, the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba on Friday, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Saturday. The 06Z run of the NOGAPS models indicates some weak development of 92L once it reaches the Western Caribbean, but none of the other reliable models develop the system. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, if necessary.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.
Hurricane Nadine headed towards the Azores Islands
Hurricane Nadine is heading eastward on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday. However, steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hurricane Nadine is heading eastward on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands on Wednesday. However, steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse by Wednesday, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.
From Dr. M.
Got me to wondering...what is the record for the
number of advisories issued for a Tropical Cyclone?
That front looks poised to clear the Florida Peninsula!!!
Edit - The climate models have been way too conservative with the loss of Arctic ice in the summer, since all of the positive feedbacks are not taken into account.
0% for 92L & 10% for 93L
Worldwide Hurricane John (1994), IIRC 104 advisories issued by NHC, CPHC and JTWC.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
455 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-172100 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
455 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THOSE PLANNING BEACH
ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
CHECK FOR POTENTIAL BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
OGLESBY
Why are they still invests?
...and it even presents well on water vapor:
92L this morning.
The MetOp satellites carry a set of seven 'heritage' instruments provided by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the French Space Agency (CNES) and a new generation of five European instruments offering improved sensing capabilities to both meteorologists and climatologists.
MetOp instrument overview
Spaceflight Now's live coverage
Metop-B Live Launch
Aw bummer :) but I'm glad you got to see it.
You have no idea how glad people in here are to see you back.
Reading back there was a whole page with about 20 "Free Washy" type posts....
Glad to see you didnt get permabanned or anything, and you are back
Your comments have proven his point exactly.
Go back and read Post 517 more carefully this time.
Both groups were advised that four correct solutions already existed. The study was not about the science in their assignment, it was about their methodology used to reach their conclusion.
The author simply compared the lengths to which each group would be willing to go to develop their conclusions. His observation was that the Ministers worked harder at reaching their conclusions and suggested that it was because they were not analyzing theological doctrine. Instead they were analyzing subject matter that was out of their field of study.
In the end, his question was quite simple. How would the scientists have gone about analyzing a theological issue. Would they have, likewise, done a more in depth analysis?
Hence my two questions, which have everything to do with how we look at the weather.
Are we as analytical as we ought to be when we look at the weather and attempt to predict what, when and where, as it relates to hurricanes?
In other words, are we too close to the subject to really see it for what it is?
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LANCASTER...
* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT
* AT 743 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL THIS MORNING OVER
CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY.
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LANCASTER COUNTY RESULTING IN NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF FLOODING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS ENDED...THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL FLOW INTO THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING DOWNSTREAM IN THE LANCASTER AND
ELGIN COMMUNITIES. WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE
LANCASTER AREA AND THE PUBLIC IS URGED NOT TO DRIVE ACROSS ROADS
COVERED BY WATER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3 3...6 7 7 2.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY CAUSE SOME HEAVY
RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AL, 92, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 145N, 589W, 20, 1011, LO
Sort of alive.
AL, 93, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 265N, 955W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091706, , BEST, 0, 273N, 948W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012091712, , BEST, 0, 285N, 935W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Viewing: 701 - 751
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