Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

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The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Typhoon 17W (Sanba), # 22: TCCOR 1-E set for Okinawa

By DAVE ORNAUER
Published: September 15, 2012

7:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan/Korea time: We're now getting battered by the back side of Typhoon Sanba. Winds have shifted completely around from the north and northwest to west and southwest. Peak winds were felt at 6 a.m. at Kadena, 62-mph sustained winds and 106-mph gusts. That's bled off some, to 56 and 74, far from what forecasts predicted, but still qulte trifling. Be careful. Stay inside until Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch is declared, sometime this afternoon.

Latest forecast wind timeline

-- Maximum 62-mph sustained winds, 106-mph gusts, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 58 mph, noon Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.

Sasebo Naval Base remains in TCCOR 2 and is still forecast to experience south-southwesterly 60-mph gusts Sunday evening into Monday.

Korea, specifically Pusan, Chinhae Naval Base and Area IV installations around Daegu are still in for a bit of a pounding as Sanba is forecast to remain a powerful Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it makes landfall on Korea's south coast at 9 a.m. Monday. It should keep its intensity, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, as it crosses the peninsula and exits near Kangnung into the Sea of Japan (or East Sea) early Monday evening. West Coast bases should feel some of Sanba's effects as well.

I don't know who DAVE ORNAUER is, or if he's a met, but I sure wish he'd write tropical weather news for Reuters and AP. His writing style is very clear and direct, as well as accurate. It was embarrasing reading some of the tripe put out by US news outlests during Isaac.
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The Steering Layer at the 1000-1010 mb. level shows a huge gap between the A/B High and the Ridge over the US. so if the storm were to get going it would gain some latitude, but if it were to stay weak it would take the more east to west route.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Shear doesn't look like it will be a factor inhibiting development, but the problem for storms this year that have made their way into the Caribbean is lack of vertical instability and high pressure causing sinking air which could be a result of the downward motion of the MJO.


I Agree with you and with what Tom taylor explain early
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Typhoon Sanba:

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291. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Land Interaction from South America is not an issue is to far north almost at 14N, outflow from nadine, yes, at least for a short time, the moderate shear doesn't help , much either.




I would place the possible LLC close to 12.5n 51w, I think there must be a reason why the convection is holding on for dear life in that area. Besides the small difference in our estimates, yep, I agree.

Though the ATCF possition is: AL, 92, 2012091518, , BEST, 0, 130N, 530W, 25, 1010, DB
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
THAT WOULD BE THE TRIPLE NICKEL 55.5N

I did a double take when I saw this. There's a ham radio frequency, 147.555, that's always refered to as the "triple nickel". I thought you had become a ham radio operator for a bit there. :)
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Typhoon 17W (Sanba), # 22: TCCOR 1-E set for Okinawa

By DAVE ORNAUER
Published: September 15, 2012

7:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan/Korea time: We're now getting battered by the back side of Typhoon Sanba. Winds have shifted completely around from the north and northwest to west and southwest. Peak winds were felt at 6 a.m. at Kadena, 62-mph sustained winds and 106-mph gusts. That's bled off some, to 56 and 74, far from what forecasts predicted, but still qulte trifling. Be careful. Stay inside until Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch is declared, sometime this afternoon.

Latest forecast wind timeline

-- Maximum 62-mph sustained winds, 106-mph gusts, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 58 mph, noon Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.

Sasebo Naval Base remains in TCCOR 2 and is still forecast to experience south-southwesterly 60-mph gusts Sunday evening into Monday.

Korea, specifically Pusan, Chinhae Naval Base and Area IV installations around Daegu are still in for a bit of a pounding as Sanba is forecast to remain a powerful Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it makes landfall on Korea's south coast at 9 a.m. Monday. It should keep its intensity, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, as it crosses the peninsula and exits near Kangnung into the Sea of Japan (or East Sea) early Monday evening. West Coast bases should feel some of Sanba's effects as well.
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CFS model..wwwwwaaayyy out in la la land..




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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Land Interaction from South America is not an issue is to far north almost at 14N, outflow from nadine, yes, at least for a short time, the moderate shear doesn't help , much either.

I disagree. If 92L doesn't start to gain latitiude, the fact that her main center of convection is already at about 11N means there will big problems with land interaction if she moves west. The main area of convection, or COC, if it's a closed low, has to get moving north before the storm gets any closer to the South American coast.
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Just wanted to say thank you. The Obama ads were irking me and somebody here suggested I pay the $10 for an ad-free site. So worth it! Thank you for the suggestion.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Fantasy land- Wierd 300hrs:

Unless the high in central AL is going to be about 50 in 12 days, it's complete fantasyland. The local mets are already discounting the long-range GFS as being completely nuts.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I do see this decreasing though as Nadine pulls away... plus it also is moving into lower shear.



Shear doesn't look like it will be a factor inhibiting development, but the problem for storms this year that have made their way into the Caribbean is lack of vertical instability and high pressure causing sinking air which could be a result of the downward motion of the MJO.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting...





I'de love to know what kind of pipe the ships intensity model is smoking with 92L. It brings it up to a strong cat 1 in less than 3 days with moderate wind shear and dry air forecast to be an issue most of its life.
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typhoonfury
@typhoonfury

Backed of eyewall starting to punch through now, winds picking up from complete calm. #typhoon #

14 minutes ago via Twitter
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Quoting sar2401:

Take a look at it on the WUndermap. It looks like it's trying to gain latitude by following Nadine. That's causeing it to get torn up by the shear now but, if it can move NNW, it can start to avoid more of the dry air. It can also get away from South America, so land interaction doesn't destroy it. If it can't gain some latitude above 15N, I don't think 92L has a chance. If it can, all bets are off.
Land Interaction from South America is not an issue is to far north almost at 14N, outflow from nadine, yes, at least for a short time, the moderate shear doesn't help , much either.
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Quoting sar2401:

No, it's more like 60W or 65W, but the whole "magic" latitude thing really doesn't hold water, so to speak. :)
50w is the magic spot where waves get alot of convection. 60w is where they get destroy by tradewinds ;)
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SANBA :

Maximum Instantaneous Wind Speed
124 mph in Oku
96 mph in Nago

942 hPa in Nago
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Quoting sar2401:

Take a look at it on the WUndermap. It looks like it's trying to gain latitude by following Nadine. That's causeing it to get torn up by the shear now but, if it can move NNW, it can start to avoid more of the dry air. It can also get away from South America, so land interaction doesn't destroy it. If it can't gain some latitude above 15N, I don't think 92L has a chance. If it can, all bets are off.
Yeah it will or should be gaining latitude because theres a huge weakness north of 92l.
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sorry caps locked
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting...




Yes, those two graphics have now been posted about 5 times....I think you're number 6. :)
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Isn't 50W the magic longitude?
THAT WOULD BE THE TRIPLE NICKEL 55.5N
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Quoting MadinBoy:
Remenber Edith ..................... 1963

I'm and all man In
Quoting pottery:
Meantime, another hot and steamy day here at 11n 61w.
Max 95F. At 4:oo pm, 93F.
Still and humid.

BAH !!
Really? Well, Very stormy , windy and lots of thunder here at 18.4N 67W, western Puerto Rico...
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Isn't 50W the magic longitude?

No, it's more like 60W or 65W, but the whole "magic" latitude thing really doesn't hold water, so to speak. :)
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Interesting...



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know this is off topic but anyone remember hurricane Lenny with the crazy path she took lol?

is and unusual event..
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Quoting Gearsts:
I dont see any of that, the only thing i see is the insane shear from Nadine killing our little system.

Take a look at it on the WUndermap. It looks like it's trying to gain latitude by following Nadine. That's causing it to get torn up by the shear now but, if it can move NNW, it can start to avoid more of the dry air. It can also get away from South America, so land interaction doesn't destroy it. If it can't gain some latitude above 15N, I don't think 92L has a chance. If it can, all bets are off.
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Isn't 50W the magic longitude?
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We have ourselves a sheared, yet legitimate CONUS threat
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Quoting Gearsts:
I dont see any of that, the only thing i see is the insane shear from Nadine killing our little system.


I do see this decreasing though as Nadine pulls away... plus it also is moving into lower shear.



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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Fantasy land- Wierd 300hrs:


that look like 1993's superstorm
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Fantasy land- Wierd 300hrs:
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92L latest ASCAT



Not much to look at for now...
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Kman, you have mail.
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Another nasty Edith..NOAA pilot David Turner said this one shook them up pretty bad..Hurricane Edith (1971)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Hurricane Edith Category 5 hurricane (SSHS)
A radar image of Hurricane Edith near Central America. The storm is at or near its peak intensity.
Satellite image of Hurricane Edith on September 9, 1971
Formed September 5, 1971
Dissipated September 18, 1971
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure 943 mbar (hPa); 27.85 inHg
Fatalities 37 direct
Damage $25.4 million (1971 USD)
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, Northern Venezuela, Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Yucatán, Northeastern Mexico, Texas, Louisiana
Part of the 1971 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Edith was the strongest hurricane to form during the 1971 Atlantic hurricane season. It developed from a tropical wave on September 5 and quickly strengthened into a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea. Edith rapidly intensified on September 9 and made landfall on Cape Gracias a Dios as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It quickly lost intensity over Central America and after briefly entering the Gulf of Honduras it crossed the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. After moving across the Gulf of Mexico a trough turned the storm to the northeast and Edith, after having restrengthened while accelerating towards the coast, made landfall on Louisiana with winds of 105 mph (170 km/h) on September 16. Edith steadily weakened over land and dissipated over Georgia on September 18.

The hurricane killed two people when it passed near Aruba. Striking northeastern Central America as a Category 5 hurricane, Edith destroyed hundreds of homes and killed at least 35 people. In Texas high tides caused coastal flooding but little damage. Edith caused moderate to heavy damage in portions of Louisiana due to flooding and a tornado outbreak from the storm. One tornado, rated F3 on the Fujita Scale, damaged several homes and injured multiple people in Baton Rouge. The tornado outbreak extended eastward into Florida, of which a few destroyed entire buildings. Damage in the United States totaled $25 million (1971 USD, $143 million 2012 USD).
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
For Sanba:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2012 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 26:41:24 N Lon : 128:15:08 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE

Looks like the eye is a wide as Okinawa so the ADT sees Sanba being over land. Don't see that happen too often.
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92L is currently struggling with moderate wind shear and dry air. Both shear and dry air are forecasted to remain quite unfavorable for the tropical disturbance in the next several days. However, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warm over 26°C.

I give 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

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Quoting sar2401:

I might be crazy but, watching the loops, it looks like 92L's outer circulation is getting caught up in the outflow channel left behind by Nadine. It appears like it wants to move at least NW if not dead N.
I dont see any of that, the only thing i see is the insane shear from Nadine killing our little system.
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Last frame in for the 18z Nogaps..180 hours..into the GOM

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Quoting wxwonder1:
92L's 200mb vorticity at 1800UTC:



And 200mb vort at 2100 UTC (Latest):



Starting to get its act together.




I'd be more interested in the vorticity lower down.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Luvin it

Don't love it too much. :) It's not going to be a hurricane in the time that the NOGAPS wants to develop it. It will be interesting to see what the model run shows.
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For Sanba:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2012 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 26:41:24 N Lon : 128:15:08 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
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Direct hit on the north side of Okinawa. Could pass for a four on the the sat loop..
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92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
13.09N/53.75W
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Quoting MadinBoy:
Remenber Edith ..................... 1963

Link

tomas 2010.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
92L PLEASE GIVE US RAIN HERE IN THE N LEEWARDS Don't give it all to the southern islands once again.

I might be crazy but, watching the loops, it looks like 92L's outer circulation is getting caught up in the outflow channel left behind by Nadine. It appears like it wants to move at least NW if not dead N.
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Remenber Edith ..................... 1963

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.