Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

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The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

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934

WHXX01 KWBC 160010

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0010 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120916 0000 120916 1200 120917 0000 120917 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.3N 54.3W 13.9N 56.0W 14.5N 57.4W 14.9N 59.1W

BAMD 13.3N 54.3W 14.0N 57.3W 14.8N 60.0W 15.4N 62.4W

BAMM 13.3N 54.3W 14.0N 56.6W 14.7N 58.7W 15.3N 60.9W

LBAR 13.3N 54.3W 14.2N 56.8W 15.2N 59.1W 16.1N 61.1W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120918 0000 120919 0000 120920 0000 120921 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.5N 60.9W 16.4N 65.5W 17.6N 70.4W 18.7N 75.2W

BAMD 15.9N 64.7W 16.9N 69.5W 18.4N 73.9W 19.9N 76.9W

BAMM 15.8N 63.1W 16.7N 67.9W 18.0N 73.0W 19.4N 77.1W

LBAR 17.1N 62.9W 18.6N 66.6W 20.2N 70.5W 21.6N 73.3W

SHIP 57KTS 77KTS 89KTS 97KTS

DSHP 57KTS 77KTS 89KTS 92KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 51.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 49.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Other models I have that I can't post right now, show the system moving a little more North than these over the Greater Antilles.

Is it too early to say, "Models are trending to the north"?
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
James Reynolds
@typhoonfury

@reedtimmerTVN eye was right over Okinawa since I was in middle of it! :p mayhem doesn't come close to describing the eyewall!

26 minutes ago via Twitter for iPad

How would I guess he would be there? :) He's nuts, but I hope he got some good video. Must be a good sign if he's still able to get an internet conection though.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Other models I have that I can't post right now, show the system moving a little more North than these over the Greater Antilles.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26541
From FB



Commander Fleet Activities Okinawa
8 minutes ago

"The Death Star has cleared the planet ...."

The Eye of Sanba has officially moved offshore, so we should see winds start to taper off in the next few hours. But typhoons can be capricious, so don't get cocky. Our next condition should be "Recovery" (no idea when this'll happen) which means - STAY INSIDE. Our crack emergency crews and engineers will be making sure everything is safe before giving the thumbs up to the huddled masses, yearning to be free of children's videos. And, even after the storm has passed, we'll still have conditions ripe for waterspouts or tornadoes, so PLEASE don't venture out until we transition to either Storm Watch or All Clear.

And on a serious note: the waters around Okinawa are now seriously unsafe and will be for several days. Typhoons produce VERY dangerous currents that persist for long periods, so if you thought going swimming, windsurfing, kayaking, belly flopping or any other activity that would take your size 10 feet off tera firma is a good idea tomorrow - you're wrong. Even if the water looks relatively calm, there will be very strong rip tides and undercurrents that could turn your usual dumb ideas into a real disaster. If you hear someone planning to do this, now would be a good time for an intervention.

Stay safe, stay tuned! Stormy



Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120916 0000 120916 1200 120917 0000 120917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 54.3W 13.9N 56.0W 14.5N 57.4W 14.9N 59.1W
BAMD 13.3N 54.3W 14.0N 57.3W 14.8N 60.0W 15.4N 62.4W
BAMM 13.3N 54.3W 14.0N 56.6W 14.7N 58.7W 15.3N 60.9W
LBAR 13.3N 54.3W 14.2N 56.8W 15.2N 59.1W 16.1N 61.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120918 0000 120919 0000 120920 0000 120921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 60.9W 16.4N 65.5W 17.6N 70.4W 18.7N 75.2W
BAMD 15.9N 64.7W 16.9N 69.5W 18.4N 73.9W 19.9N 76.9W
BAMM 15.8N 63.1W 16.7N 67.9W 18.0N 73.0W 19.4N 77.1W
LBAR 17.1N 62.9W 18.6N 66.6W 20.2N 70.5W 21.6N 73.3W
SHIP 57KTS 77KTS 89KTS 97KTS
DSHP 57KTS 77KTS 89KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 51.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 49.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hamla:
yup i had a great shack till katrina took out all my towers and flooded the area with 8ft of water .i got my was on all bands except 160 and got th dxc mostly on 20m.even worked jy1 3 times also had a direct line to the murricane center in fl..they had a lot of hams working as mets.dont know now??

I wondered how bad t must have been for you when I read Bay St. Louis. Sounds pretty bad. :( Nothing worse than losing all that time and money you put into the shack and antennas. There's still an HF hurricane net on 14.325 and 3.950 that opens when a hurricane is within 300 miles of landfall. The NWS also uses a lot of digital modes like Echolink to communicate with hams in the affected area. I was a net control station during Katrina since I was far enough inland not be directly affected. That was a tough and heartbreaking 24 hours.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
00z Best Track for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 133N, 543W, 25, 1010, DB
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
James Reynolds
@typhoonfury

@reedtimmerTVN eye was right over Okinawa since I was in middle of it! :p mayhem doesn't come close to describing the eyewall!

26 minutes ago via Twitter for iPad
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
Nadine's probably barely clinging to hurricane status right now, if it has it at all.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I give 92L a small chance of ever developing....I mentioned T.D 7/Helene analog.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17149
Quoting allancalderini:
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

LOL...this is the most popular quote I am seeing on this blog tonight....

I haven't been paying as much attention to 92L...but now I should...I will be putting more info on it in my next blog post...

In the meantime...I did my usual update of the Atlantic tropics early this morning....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 503 Comments: 3688
Quoting etxwx:


Info from website: Dave Ornauer has been with Stars and Stripes since March 5, 1981. One of his first assignments as a beat reporter in the old Japan News Bureau was "typhoon chaser", a task which he resumed virtually full time since 2004, the year after his job, as a sports writer-photographer, moved to Okinawa and Ornauer with it.

As a typhoon reporter, Ornauer pores over Web sites managed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as well as U.S. government, military and local weather outlets for timely, topical information. Pacific Storm Tracker is designed to take the technical lingo published on those sites and simplify it for the average Stripes reader.

Dang! Must be a weather nerd. :) Why can't we get people like him writing for the major wire services?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
The eye has cleared Okinawa:



Still very bad conditions on the island now of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
327. hamla
Quoting sar2401:

Gald to meet ya. :) Yes, the DX is awful. I find myself wondering if this sunspot cycle could be having an effect on the weather. The suspots should be nearing a maxima and all we're getting is solar ejections headed into outer space. MS was my toughest state when I was going after worked all 50 on 80 meters. I wish I would have known you were here, maybe we could have set up an operating session.
yup i had a great shack till katrina took out all my towers and flooded the area with 8ft of water .i got my was on all bands except 160 and got th dxc mostly on 20m.even worked jy1 3 times also had a direct line to the murricane center in fl..they had a lot of hams working as mets.dont know now??
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
Quoting tropicfreak:


Shear is rather low out ahead of 92L.

Yes, but lots of dry air and interaction with South America. It looks like the convection might be reforming east in preparation for the storm to move north. If it can't move north, it will be killed at 12N.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
325. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That is true. It is also not weakening like they said it was.


.. and remember TD 7 developed in a similar region with little model support at first.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5281
Quoting hamla:
my 1st call was kn1ebo in 1957,then kb0kyo in co. now n1rg here in bay st.louis ms and the dx sucks

Glad to meet ya. :) Yes, the DX is awful. I find myself wondering if this sunspot cycle could be having an effect on the weather. The suspots should be nearing a maxima and all we're getting is solar ejections headed into outer space. MS was my toughest state when I was going after worked all 50 on 80 meters. I wish I would have known you were here, maybe we could have set up an operating session.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
On 92L, I would advise keeping an eye on any sort of low this far south at this time of the year. At least according to past climatology...it's worth a second and third look, though it does appear overall that we're in a period of changing tropical cyclone development areas moving north, that doesn't mean that some cyclones can't sneak by taking a more southerly route. It's just harder for these TD's-to-be dealing with colder air intrusion from S.A. land interaction...it can happen though and at least it's worth keeping an eye out for.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5618
Quoting Thing342:
"Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph."

I'm pretty sure Megi's max winds were 190 mph.

Nope, it was 185 mph one minute sustained or 145 mph on the 10 minute sustained using the Japanese scale. Regardless, it was a heck of storm.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
321. hamla
Quoting sar2401:

Cool. I had no idea. AK4FP for me. The DX has been lousy. The sunspot cycle was supposed to come up and it hasn't done squat so far. :)
my 1st call was kn1ebo in 1957,then kb0kyo in co. now n1rg here in bay st.louis ms and the dx sucks
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
320. Skyepony (Mod)
Amazing the ustream link that Dr Masters left us. They have been in the eyewall for hours & the traffic light still works. Great audio too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

East to West = Death for 92L.


Shear is rather low out ahead of 92L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
Could the center of 92L be reforming further east near 13n 51w within the deep convection?

Interesting to note that this system is already more potent than most of the dynamical models initialise it as. It could provide the surprise of the season.


That is true. It is also not weakening like they said it was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
316. SLU
Quoting SLU:
Could the center of 92L be reforming further east near 13n 51w within the deep convection?

Interesting to note that this system is already more potent than most of the dynamical models initialise it as. It could provide the surprise of the season.



... and since it is elongated along and east-west axis, the center could reform anywhere within that envelope.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5281
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
"Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph."

I'm pretty sure Megi's max winds were 190 mph.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
313. SLU
Could the center of 92L be reforming further east near 13n 51w within the deep convection?

Interesting to note that this system is already more potent than most of the dynamical models initialise it as. It could provide the surprise of the season.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5281
92L remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 980 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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ajlamers
@ajlamers

Kadena AFB on Okinawa (RODN) just measured a gust to 78mph at 2257z to south of eye of #Sanba. goo.gl/HndGz

30 minutes ago via Twitter
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 980 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Direct hit on the north side of Okinawa. Could pass for a four on the the sat loop..

Didn't Okinawa get wiped out once already this year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

East to West = Death for 92L.
A lot of factors depend on whether 92L will survive the trek across the Caribbean. Wind Shear, Dry Air, TUTT, and Trade Winds are some of those factors. If it goes north of the islands shear will be greater because the TUTT is located there. Right now Nadine's outflow and shear from these troughs to the north is kicking its tail not to mention dry air ahead of it. However the ULL in the Caribbean is moving towards the west which will drag 92L with it. I think 92L will generally move wnw for the next couple of days, staying far enough away from South America. I guess we will find out if the NOGAPS model is right or the other models in keeping this system in check, once it gets to the Western Caribbean then it becomes a whole nother ball game.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The current lack of convection is not due entirely to wind shear and dry air, but we also must remember of the natural diurnal cycles of the day that cause waxing and waning of convection.

I doubt though that 92L will develop at this time due to the amount of stability ahead of it.


92L is in diurnal minimum, and that causes the convection to diminish a little. I don't expect significant development of 92L in the coming days.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
303. etxwx
Quoting sar2401:

I don't know who DAVE ORNAUER is, or if he's a met, but I sure wish he'd write tropical weather news for Reuters and AP. His writing style is very clear and direct, as well as accurate. It was embarrasing reading some of the tripe put out by US news outlests during Isaac.


Info from website: Dave Ornauer has been with Stars and Stripes since March 5, 1981. One of his first assignments as a beat reporter in the old Japan News Bureau was "typhoon chaser", a task which he resumed virtually full time since 2004, the year after his job, as a sports writer-photographer, moved to Okinawa and Ornauer with it.

As a typhoon reporter, Ornauer pores over Web sites managed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as well as U.S. government, military and local weather outlets for timely, topical information. Pacific Storm Tracker is designed to take the technical lingo published on those sites and simplify it for the average Stripes reader.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I gotta think whatever 92L becomes, it will be tugged to the north, at some point, by the recent troffiness.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2065
Quoting sar2401:

Cool. I had no idea. AK4FP for me. The DX has been lousy. The sunspot cycle was supposed to come up and it hasn't done squat so far. :)


42

use to have

TRC-451 PIRATE RADIO
WITH CITIZEN DESK MIC
WITH 100 FOOT MARINE WHIP
ON MAST
WITH 1500 WATT BOOTS




caps locked
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i am or was

not anymore

international call sign

XM66-9682

CQ,CQ,CQ,DX.

Cool. I had no idea. AK4FP for me. The DX has been lousy. The sunspot cycle was supposed to come up and it hasn't done squat so far. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
299. etxwx
Indirect effects of Sanba on the Philippines cause flooding and claim the life of a fisherman.
Overnight rains force Metro folk to flee homes
Philippine Daily Inquirer
1:32 am | Sunday, September 16th, 2012

Excerpt: Parts of Metro Manila went under several feet of water on Saturday after heavy rains lashed the capital overnight, forcing more than 400 people to flee their homes, officials said. The downpour stopped by mid-morning, allowing evacuees to return to their homes. But weathermen warned that heavy monsoon rains could continue through Tuesday.

A strong typhoon (“Sanba”) moving towards Japan “has no direct effect (on the Philippines) but it enhanced the southwestern monsoon so we will continue to experience rains,” said government meteorologist Gary de la Cruz. Low-lying coastal areas of the capital were hardest hit, forcing people to flee their homes, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said. Although the heavy rains eased later in the day, De la Cruz said the country could continue to suffer downpours until Tuesday.

So far, Sanba has caused one fatality in the Philippines, a fisherman who ventured out to sea on Sept. 12 but whose body was recovered only two days later, the disaster management council said. Storms and flooding from torrential rains affected more than two million people in August and killed scores.

Climate Change Commissioner Heherson Alvarez has called for a review of the comprehensive flood management plans of the Department of Public Works and Highways. In an interview with the Inquirer, Alvarez said that any master plan to reduce the vulnerability of Metro Manila and outlying regions to flooding and extraordinary rainfall must be “climate change sensitive.”

Story continues here
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Steering Layer at the 1000-1010 mb. level shows a huge gap between the A/B High and the Ridge over the US. so if the storm were to get going it would gain some latitude, but if it were to stay weak it would take the more east to west route.


East to West = Death for 92L.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16207
Quoting sar2401:

I did a double take when I saw this. There's a ham radio frequency, 147.555, that's always refered to as the "triple nickel". I thought you had become a ham radio operator for a bit there. :)


i am or was

not anymore

international call sign

XM66-9682

CQ,CQ,CQ,DX.
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Quoting Civicane49:
92L is currently struggling with moderate wind shear and dry air. Both shear and dry air are forecasted to remain quite unfavorable for the tropical disturbance in the next several days. However, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warm over 26°C.

I give 92L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.



The current lack of convection is not due entirely to wind shear and dry air, but we also must remember of the natural diurnal cycles of the day that cause waxing and waning of convection.

I doubt though that 92L will develop at this time due to the amount of stability ahead of it.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Typhoon 17W (Sanba), # 22: TCCOR 1-E set for Okinawa

By DAVE ORNAUER
Published: September 15, 2012

7:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan/Korea time: We're now getting battered by the back side of Typhoon Sanba. Winds have shifted completely around from the north and northwest to west and southwest. Peak winds were felt at 6 a.m. at Kadena, 62-mph sustained winds and 106-mph gusts. That's bled off some, to 56 and 74, far from what forecasts predicted, but still qulte trifling. Be careful. Stay inside until Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch is declared, sometime this afternoon.

Latest forecast wind timeline

-- Maximum 62-mph sustained winds, 106-mph gusts, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 58 mph, noon Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.

Sasebo Naval Base remains in TCCOR 2 and is still forecast to experience south-southwesterly 60-mph gusts Sunday evening into Monday.

Korea, specifically Pusan, Chinhae Naval Base and Area IV installations around Daegu are still in for a bit of a pounding as Sanba is forecast to remain a powerful Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it makes landfall on Korea's south coast at 9 a.m. Monday. It should keep its intensity, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, as it crosses the peninsula and exits near Kangnung into the Sea of Japan (or East Sea) early Monday evening. West Coast bases should feel some of Sanba's effects as well.

I don't know who DAVE ORNAUER is, or if he's a met, but I sure wish he'd write tropical weather news for Reuters and AP. His writing style is very clear and direct, as well as accurate. It was embarrasing reading some of the tripe put out by US news outlests during Isaac.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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