Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

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The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting washingtonian115:
But it has a very small chance of doing so :).C'mon a cat 3 or better?.The ships always go nuts with intensity of invest.
Same was say of Michael and he shut up even the most amazing and intelligent bloggers in here 92l may do the same Washi so in case be prepare.
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Quoting sar2401:

Exactly. The blowoff clouds make it look like the storm is moving west but, if you just look at the blob, the blowoff clouds are actually moving NNW is response to Nadine. If 92L isn't under that blob, then we have high clouds that are being called an invest. I suspect this is one of the reasons we're getting strange model runs.


What's wrong with an invest of high clouds? Just kidding...

Earlier I would have said that 92L is under that blob...say around 1500Z. I am gonna check out the TAFB maps at 0000Z tonight. If they have the wave axis positioned near the Lesser Antilles....do you still believe that 92L is under the blob? Is the Invest the blob or the wave axis?
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Quoting JLPR2:


Hmm... Just in case
*writes in a pieces of paper...
Washingtonian will dance around in a clown suite if 92L's intensity forecast materializes.

Now that could rival Presslord's infamous photo. xD
But it has a very small chance of doing so :).C'mon a cat 3 or better?.The ships always go nuts with intensity of invest.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22694
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I just looked at this AVN infrared loop...

LOL...I see the convective blob basically is dead-nuts over the same spot in the last hours. And since the wave has to be moving west over the last hours...that's why I ain't believing that 92L is still under that blob...its gotta be west of that blob by now...

Here's something cool in that AVN satellite loop (if you turn on the Lat-Lon grid). The white debris clouds are circling clockwise about an upper ridge center located at 47.5W-22.5N. It is the split flow divergence on the SW quad of that upper ridge that is supporting the stationary blob....

Exactly. The blowoff clouds make it look like the storm is moving west but, if you just look at the blob, the blowoff clouds are actually moving NNW is response to Nadine. If 92L isn't under that blob, then we have high clouds that are being called an invest. I suspect this is one of the reasons we're getting strange model runs.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
439. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
You actually believe that?.If 92L does that I'll put on a clown suite and dance around.Ha ha!.


Hmm... Just in case
*writes in a pieces of paper...
Washingtonian will dance around in a clown suite if 92L's intensity forecast materializes.

Now that could rival Presslord's infamous photo. xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
438. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
9:00 AM JST September 16 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea Around Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (925 hPa) located at 27.0N 128.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
140 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 33.5N 127.6E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Tsushima Waters
48 HRS: 41.9N 130.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea Of Japan
72 HRS: 49.7N 130.8E - Extratropical Low near Amur River Basin
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437. 7544
Quoting SLU:
Insane ...



cool i see we have 92l but ships are going nuts with it maybe it will head to the gulf and then recurve nne could be thats what their seeing ?
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Quoting SLU:
Insane ...

You actually believe that?.If 92L does that I'll put on a clown suite and dance around.Ha ha!.
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Quoting java162:
finally perhaps some rain for us on the island..... this drought has been terrible.... literally no rain since issac!

Awww...you poor thing. We had almost no rain this entire year in central AL until Isaac came along. Try that and see how your plants look.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting sar2401:

Well, look at the convective blob over the last eight hours and you tell me how much you think it's moved. The upper air divergence is certainly a possibility but, at some point, the convection needs to get moving if 92L is going to turn into something.

I just looked at this AVN infrared loop...

LOL...I see the convective blob basically is dead-nuts over the same spot in the last hours. And since the wave has to be moving west over the last hours...that's why I ain't believing that 92L is still under that blob...its gotta be west of that blob by now...

Here's something cool in that AVN satellite loop (if you turn on the Lat-Lon grid). The white debris clouds are circling clockwise about an upper ridge center located at 47.5W-22.5N. It is the split flow divergence on the SW quad of that upper ridge that is supporting the stationary blob....
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Good night guys. Sanba is still a very impressive storm, I'm hoping Okinawa made out alright.



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
Looks like MJO on its way back to Atlantic area.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh so I see how you all operate around here.You wait till I get off then come back out from hiding?.So we're doing that type of game now.Well might as well put half of ya'll on ignore then..

I would know what you said if I didn't have you on ignore....j/k :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting goalexgo:
I nominate Hurricane Nadine for the Lady Bing Trophy. One of the friendliest hurricanes out there. Refuses to hurt a soul.

Not so for Oscar. Oscar is very dangerous. As Felix Unger once said......" Oscar, Oscar, Oscar!!"

Believe it or not, Nadine is having an impact on the US. High surf advisories are up for coastal waters up here due to swells from Nadine.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG SOME EXPOSED OCEAN
BEACHES...

.SWELLS FROM HURRICANE NADINE WILL CAUSE LARGE BREAKERS ACROSS
SOME EAST AND SOUTH FACING BEACHES ON SUNDAY. SINCE NADINE HAS
RECURVED AND IS NOW HEADING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...THE SWELLS AND ACCOMPANYING HIGH SURF SHOULD SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAZ022>024-RIZ006-008-160445-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SU.Y.0004.120916T1200Z-120917T0000Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-WASHINGTON RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
432 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY.

* LOCATION...OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON CAPE COD...NANTUCKET...SOUTH
SIDE OF MARTHAS VINEYARD...BLOCK ISLAND AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RI.

* SURF HEIGHT...GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FEET.

* TIMING...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BEACH GOERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RIP CURRENT...SOMETIMES MISTAKENLY CALLED AN UNDERTOW...IS A
STRONG BUT NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE BEACH TO THE
SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER AND
EXHAUST AN INDIVIDUAL TRYING TO SWIM AGAINST IT.

IF YOU ARE A POOR SWIMMER AND ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL OUT OF ITS PULL. ANOTHER MEANS OF
ESCAPE FOR THOSE WHO ARE GOOD SWIMMERS IS TO RIDE THE CURRENT OUT
BEYOND THE SURF ZONE WHERE THE RIP CURRENT DISSIPATES...THEN SWIM
TOWARD SHORE OUTSIDE THE EFFECT OF THE NARROW RIP CURRENT.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM BACK TO SHORE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE
CURRENT...IT CAN EXHAUST AND DROWN EVEN THE STRONGEST SWIMMER.

HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND SWIM ONLY AT GUARDED
BEACHES. WATCH YOUR CHILDREN. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS
AND JETTIES WHERE RIP CURRENTS CAN BE ENHANCED.

IN ADDITION...VIEWERS OF LARGE SURF SHOULD BE IN SAFE AREAS WELL
AWAY FROM POSSIBLE SPLASH OVER. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN
TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH CAN SWEEP A PERSON INTO
THE WATER FROM WHAT MAY SEEM TO BE A SAFE VIEWING AREA. FALLING
INTO THE TURBULENT AND SOMETIMES ROCKY WATERS CAN RESULT IN
INJURY THAT REDUCES THE CHANCE OF SURVIVAL.

&&

$$

THOMPSON
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You know what, call me crazy, but sometimes I wonder if these ensemble models are showing us tracks from past storms.

Well, you've got feed data to a model, and with a developing (maybe) storm like 92L, I would be amazed if climatology wasn't part of the model data at the beginning, until it gets something real to latch on to.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Oh so I see how you all operate around here.You wait till I get off then come back out from hiding?.So we're doing that type of game now.Well might as well put half of ya'll on ignore then..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I nominate Hurricane Nadine for the Lady Bing Trophy. One of the friendliest hurricanes out there. Refuses to hurt a soul.

Not so for Oscar. Oscar is very dangerous. As Felix Unger once said......" Oscar, Oscar, Oscar!!"
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's the well-defined mid-level circulation. 92L's low-level circulation is farther east. The storm is not stacked.

That would make sense if the mid-level swirl is titled westward above the wave axis (in what should still be an environment of easterly vertical shear). I would rewind the satellite imagery to 1800Z...and compare it to the tropical wave position at 1800Z (which was 55W according to 1800Z). If the swirl at 1800Z is stacked with the tropical wave position at 1800Z....then it was stacked with the wave.

Here is where I did the rewind excercise. I clicked on the lat-lon grid. Sure enough...the emerging swirl at 1800Z was stacked with the tropical wave position at 1800Z.

I guess we'll see where TAFB puts the wave at 0000Z...and compare it to a satellite image at 0000Z.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Nadine

trying...

(sort of looks like some "fish" in the blue)

Looks like a badly diseased kidney to me. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting SLU:
Insane ...


You can't believe those. There is no way the intensity of 92L will go straight up like most of those models suggest, they show that every time an invest forms.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
Quoting allancalderini:
But come on 2 how many name storms do you think September will produce counting Michael and Nadine? I say we might get another 2 for a total of 4 and you?

Maybe 2 more.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

But the convective blow up is toward 50W...the tropical wave axis at 1800Z was at 55W...and a little later satellite imagery (toward 2100Z) shows a swirl at 57W. So it would seem that the wave is west of the convective blow up.

I see no reason for 92L to suddenly park itself stationary near 50W with deep-layered easterly flow to push it along westward (that would be like a pebble in a river somehow moving staying still against the flow of the river). The convective blow up is stationary because it is coincident with an upper divergence maximum on the SW quadrant of an upper ridge.

Well, look at the convective blob over the last eight hours and you tell me how much you think it's moved. The upper air divergence is certainly a possibility but, at some point, the convection needs to get moving if 92L is going to turn into something.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
UKMET has trough..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22694
420. SLU
Insane ...

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Quoting hydrus:
This is worth a look. Check out the huge trough and the weird storm that approaches California..Link


Hopefully that cut-off low expected to get trapped under that PNA ridge will help nudge that trough axis a bit more eastward by the last week of September so that Florida can get an ideal shot of Autumn air!!!

So far I'm liking this trend.:)

Or better yet that cut-off low that'll develop in the west Atlantic.
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Nadine

trying...

(sort of looks like some "fish" in the blue)
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting sar2401:

You've got to love model runs at this stage of the game. One model wants to take it all the way up to Canada and another wants to take it across Central America and out into the Pacific. Regardless of our speculation, I can say confidently that one of those models will be wrong. :)
You know what, call me crazy, but sometimes I wonder if these ensemble models are showing us tracks from past storms.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
finally perhaps some rain for us on the island..... this drought has been terrible.... literally no rain since issac!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That doesn't mean it will always have more storms though.
But come on 2 how many name storms do you think September will produce counting Michael and Nadine? I say we might get another 2 for a total of 4 and you?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flas h-vis-long.html

My favorite view of 92L...and I would click on HDW-H (to view the upper winds). It seems the persistent flare of thunderstorms is coincident with the maximum of upper divergence...see how the flare is right where the HDW-H vectors are splitting? I suppose a 2nd surface low could form under that maximum of upper divergence....but I don't see that yet...

And moreover...I see a swirl heading quickly westward toward the Lesser Antilles...but a naked swirl. I suppose this is where 92L itself is located....

That's the well-defined mid-level circulation. 92L's low-level circulation is farther east. The storm is not stacked.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here we go, I wonder if the operational will come on board.


You've got to love model runs at this stage of the game. One model wants to take it all the way up to Canada and another wants to take it across Central America and out into the Pacific. Regardless of our speculation, I can say confidently that one of those models will be wrong. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting allancalderini:
Hope it becomes Oscar.September until now only has produce two name storms that is quite pathetic compare to August that produce 8 and September is supposedly the most active month in the Atlantic.

That doesn't mean it will always have more storms though.
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Quoting sar2401:

I think you're being fooled convection blowoff. The main area of convection is much further east and doesn't appear to be moving much, if at all.

But the convective blow up is toward 50W...the tropical wave axis at 1800Z was at 55W...and a little later satellite imagery (toward 2100Z) shows a swirl at 57W. So it would seem that the wave is west of the convective blow up.

I see no reason for 92L to suddenly park itself stationary near 50W with deep-layered easterly flow to push it along westward (that would be like a pebble in a river somehow staying still against the flow of the river). The convective blow up is stationary because it is coincident with an upper divergence maximum on the SW quadrant of an upper ridge.
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Blog might go bizzerk again.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here we go, I wonder if the operational will come on board.

Hope it becomes Oscar.September until now only has produce two name storms that is quite pathetic compare to August that produce 8 and September is supposedly the most active month in the Atlantic.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
There is a Grothar echo in here.


I don't hear it, I don't hear it.
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Here we go, I wonder if the operational will come on board.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting CaribBoy:


nah I really don"t think it will be that strong. It's looking ugly at this time..

OK, we'll all remember that. How do you like your crow done? :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Throw the models right out of the window.

OK, give us your model then.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
ATCF:

Nadine: AL, 14, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 307N, 475W, 70, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 40, 35, 0, 1013, 290, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,

92L: AL, 92, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 133N, 543W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Kristy: EP, 11, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 235N, 1158W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 60, 0, 40, 1010, 150, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KRISTY, M,

Lane: EP, 12, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1238W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 30, 50, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LANE, M,
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Quoting hydrus:
Lol..It looked like a tropical storm..:)

If the water off SF was about 26c, I could believe it might be Kristy. I don't think that's happened yet. :)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
There is a Grothar echo in here.

----------------------------------------

W7VOA
@W7VOA

NHK: Street flooding in Naha, #Okinawa from #typhoon #Sanba. Power out for 62,000 customers (but no casualties reported).

8 minutes ago via Twitter
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Throw the models right out of the window.
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Quoting Grothar:
Good agreement on the intensity models.


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If convection really build after midnight... it's possible we get a big surprise from 92L. Chance is slim though. I stay conservative with this one.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I don't know where the suggested WNW or NW motion is coming from? In all sat loops...I see a swirl heading rapidly west...anyone else see it (approaching 57W-14N)?

I think you're being fooled convection blowoff. The main area of convection is much further east and doesn't appear to be moving much, if at all.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 17447
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I don't know where the suggested WNW or NW motion is coming from? In all sat loops...I see a swirl heading rapidly west...anyone else see it (approaching 57W-14N)?


I don't see any models showing a NW motion on 92L, but I do see a WNW motion is pretty consistent with all of them for now.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


it's a mid level swirl left by the convection

At 1800Z TAFB...the tropical wave was positioned at 55W...the swirl is at 57W...so I am thinking this swirl is stacked with the tropical wave...
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Good agreement on the intensity models.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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