Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

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The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:

pssst. that is not Okinawa. That's San Juan City, east of Manila, Philippines. before posting an image, please make sure you it right.



Take a chill pill I sure it was this a mistake. No need too jump on him for a small mistake
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494. etxwx
With storms and invests still popping up in the Atlantic, this caught my eye.

New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn
NYT 9.10.12 by Mireya Navarro

Excerpt: With a 520-mile-long coast lined largely by teeming roads and fragile infrastructure, New York City is gingerly facing up to the intertwined threats posed by rising seas and ever-more-severe storm flooding.

So far, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has commissioned exhaustive research on the challenge of climate change. His administration is expanding wetlands to accommodate surging tides, installing green roofs to absorb rainwater and prodding property owners to move boilers out of flood-prone basements.

But even as city officials earn high marks for environmental awareness, critics say New York is moving too slowly to address the potential for flooding that could paralyze transportation, cripple the low-lying financial district and temporarily drive hundreds of thousands of people from their homes.

Only a year ago, they point out, the city shut down the subway system and ordered the evacuation of 370,000 people as Hurricane Irene barreled up the Atlantic coast. Ultimately, the hurricane weakened to a tropical storm and spared the city, but it exposed how New York is years away from — and billions of dollars short of — armoring itself.

“They lack a sense of urgency about this,” said Douglas Hill, an engineer with the Storm Surge Research Group at Stony Brook University, on Long Island.

Instead of “planning to be flooded,” as he put it, city, state and federal agencies should be investing in protection like sea gates that could close during a storm and block a surge from Long Island Sound and the Atlantic Ocean into the East River and New York Harbor.


Article continues here.

There is more on this topic here: How to protect New York from disaster
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Link
I always pictured Japan as looking so different then where I live in New Jersey. Well, my neighborhood looks EXACTLY like this. During the last decade, a lot of the older buildings were replaced with these types of "high-rise" condominiums. We coined them, "Vertical McMansions", as they are quite high-end. I guess this is barrier island standard all over the globe! Notice none of the windows are boarded. They are made of hurricane resistant glass. All the lower floors are these tall garages. If they flood from surge, there is minimal damage to the residence area of the building. In my town, all these new buildings are build upon giant pilings pounded into the ground, making them very robust. The Okinawa neighborhood is the twin of the oceanfront neighborhood in my town, Seaside Heights, just a little less ornate. These are bad for people who don't like A LOT of stairs, but they are perfect if you choose to build on a barrier island.
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300 dead, 600 missing from floods in North Korea, as country awaits arrival of typhoon Sanba


Posted on September 15, 2012
Damage from Typhoon Bolaven in North Korea, photographed near Komdok on Aug. 31 by KCNA, released Sept. 7 to EPA for international distribution.
September 15, 2012 – NORTH KOREA – Just as another typhoon headed toward the Korean peninsula, North Korea on Friday summarized the damage from the late summer storm season – 300 dead and another 600 injured or missing. North Korea’s state news agency said that the worst damage came from the typhoon called Bolaven that swept over the peninsula on Aug. 28 and 29. That storm alone killed 59 people and left about 26,320 people homeless after about 8,000 houses were destroyed by rain and flooding. For a country that is so poor and inefficient that each year’s summer storms leave it a disastrous wreck, North Korea provides strikingly precise data about the damage. Since mid-June, storms and floods damaged or destroyed 87,280 homes and left 298,050 people homeless, its news agency said. It did not say whether they were temporarily homeless from, say, floodwater, or indeed needed entire new homes. Among the other damage, 92 drinking water systems were ravaged and 16,900 trees knocked down. “More than 17,150 square meters of railroad were washed away and over 300 sections of railway were covered by landslides, with scores of tunnels and railway bridges damaged,” it said. Now comes Typhoon Sanba, which is heading north from the Philippines toward Okinawa this weekend and the Korean peninsula by Monday. It is a stronger storm than Bolaven, which was billed as the biggest in a decade but didn’t turn out that way. Stars and Stripes reporter Dave Ornauer on Okinawa warns that he’s never seen a storm as intense as Sanba is shaping up to be. By the time it hits the Korean peninsula, its winds will have died down from Category 4 to Category 2 speeds, he estimates. Even so, both South and North Korea are well-saturated. And North Korea is in no shape for another big storm. -WSJ
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Flooding in Okinawa.


pssst. that is not Okinawa. That's San Juan City, east of Manila, Philippines. before posting an image, please make sure you it right.
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Convection starting to refire near the center of 92L. Interesting that the BAM-D track takes 92L on a very close track to Isaac though Cuba. Its weak state now will take it into the Caribbean.



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Quoting Slamguitar:


You lucky bastard! :D

It was UMass though, they suck. A win is a win though, especially with Denard Robinson as your QB.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good night guys. Sanba is still a very impressive storm, I'm hoping Okinawa made out alright.





Just spoke to my friend in Naha Okinawa. She is actually going to work, they never lost power, her building is undamaged. She has told me there is reports of damage and flooding as storm surge over-topped the seawall. Kandena Air base has also reported damage, mainly to roofing. As seen via Facebook Kandena Air Base page..

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485. JLPR2
Hmm, 92L's structure is terrible at this hour. Almost seems like the MLC is now a separate entity.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting wxchaser97:

Michael surprised everyone with becoming a cat3. I wouldn't forget 92L as if it gets into a good area then it could develop.

Storm like Michael and Gordon this year were the type that are shallower than usual such that they are less sensitive to vertical shear...which is why I think both storms were surprising...

Storms like 92L that form in the deep tropics tend to have typically tall structures...not saying that 92L won't strengthen because I haven't yet had time to take a good look at this...
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS
AND BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEN HOLD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
INVEST 92L EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE PR/USVI TUE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL DYRING/SUBSIDENCE
BUILDING FROM THE EAST AS A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECENT DAY TOMORROW WITH
SIGNIFICANT LESS CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MON AHEAD OF INVEST 92L.

INVEST 92L LOCATED AROUND 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARDS WILL
MOVE WNW AROUND 15 MPH NEXT TWO DAYS AND PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTING IN QUICKLY MON
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASING IN CVRG MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...A RAINY DAY APPEARS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION TUE ALONG WITH SQUALLY WEATHER. HAVE BUMPED
SKY...POPS AND QPF GRIDS FOR THE MON NIGHT-TUE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF PR WHICH MAY REQUIRE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TOMORROW. WEATHER
IMPROVES QUICKLY ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT VFR REST OF TONIGHT BUT SHRA TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE OF TJSJ FOR AWHILE. ISOLD SHRA STILL PSBL USVI BUT A REMOTE
CHC OF MVFR...SLIGHTLY BTR CHC AT TKPK/TNCM AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE
HAS ARRIVED THERE. SCT SHRA/TSRA XPCTD SAT AFT BUT WITH FEWER OBSCD
MTNS. LLVL WINDS VRBL (MSTLY E-SE) TO 12 KT THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...UNLESS INVEST 92L DEVELOPS FURTHER INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...MAINLY SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT-TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92F DEGS WAS SET TODAY AT
THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS TIED THE OLD RECORD OF 92F SET BACK IN 2003.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 10 40 10 30
STT 78 89 79 89 / 10 40 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327


Link
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Michael surprised everyone with becoming a cat3. I wouldn't forget 92L as if it gets into a good area then it could develop.


Especially when NHC says this at 8 PM TWO.

WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Impressive that almost all of the intensity models really intensify 92L. Not sold on development right now, but incase you all where wondering the current lack of convection is to be expected. Large waves with such little in the way of convergence and a circulation naturally are weaker and henceforth succumb during night to DMIN. You always find though that in the morning that no matter how disorganized it looks, a new structure takes place, always. You could go from a mammoth tropical wave to a small yet stronger one in 24 hours.
Don't say 92L will intensify pass a 45mph T.S.Or else I'll have to put on a clown suite.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Same was say of Michael and he shut up even the most amazing and intelligent bloggers in here 92l may do the same Washi so in case be prepare.

Michael surprised everyone with becoming a cat3. I wouldn't forget 92L as if it gets into a good area then it could develop.
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Impressive that almost all of the intensity models really intensify 92L. Not sold on development right now, but incase you all where wondering the current lack of convection is to be expected. Large waves with such little in the way of convergence and a circulation naturally are weaker and henceforth succumb during night to DMIN. You always find though that in the morning that no matter how disorganized it looks, a new structure takes place, always. You could go from a mammoth tropical wave to a small yet stronger one in 24 hours because of the constant waxing and waning of convection.
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Early discussions showed a possible development in the Gulf which would move up towards the Eastern Seaboard and the development of yet another wave in the far Atlantic. These TC pages have been showing possible development of a system right near the islands for a few days.

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Quoting wxchaser97:

Was a sunny and mild day today with the leaves changing. I wish I would've taken a picture of Ann Arbor but you can just imagine how it was. It will get even cooler next week with highs around 60F.


Perfect timing, somehow it worked out.
I saw a pretty rainbow today.I took a picture but it didn't come out very clear.That sucks because it was very beautiful with the setting sun and pinkish blue clouds.
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472. hamla
this is a bad time for the gom because the cool/cold fronts that come down to the gom if they are not super strong sometimes things seem to devolop on the tail end and they usealy go poleward .not good for the gulf coast
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A lot of us have seen the those live shot pictures from the storm in Okinawa, the link that Dr. Masters posted. What the heck are people doing driving around in a 120 mph Typhoon???
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes the weather as very beautiful today with a chill in the air.Really refreshing after the monsterous heat here this summer.

Was a sunny and mild day today with the leaves changing. I wish I would've taken a picture of Ann Arbor but you can just imagine how it was. It will get even cooler next week with highs around 60F.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:




LOL...I just like how Wxchaser comes on right when Wash asks....doesn't get more perfect than that...

Perfect timing, somehow it worked out.
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Quoting hamla:
a couple of weeks back a few of the models had something devoloping in the boc .i wonder if this materalizes could it be oscar or the next one .it was around the 19th of sept. any thoughts??
They also had a tropical storm slamming into the Leeward Islands around this time.Which leads me to believe that at one point the models were showing development of 92L.They dropped the idea.Dry air may be the reason why...
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466. 7544
Quoting stormchaser19:


Woooww!!!!!Big difference between statical and Dynamical models


wow almost a cat3 ?? might get interesting
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Flooding in Okinawa.

And the crazy thing is this is on an island, just goes to show you the amount of water these storms put out and in short time too, storm surge and rainfall flooding.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
wxchaser come out on the blog.You seem lonely :).


Quoting wxchaser97:
Just got back from the Michigan game, we beat UMass 63-13. I see we got 92L and Nadine still at 80mph.


LOL...I just like how Wxchaser comes on right when Wash asks....doesn't get more perfect than that...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Believe it or not, Nadine is having an impact on the US. High surf advisories are up for coastal waters up here due to swells from Nadine.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG SOME EXPOSED OCEAN
BEACHES...

.SWELLS FROM HURRICANE NADINE WILL CAUSE LARGE BREAKERS ACROSS
SOME EAST AND SOUTH FACING BEACHES ON SUNDAY. SINCE NADINE HAS
RECURVED AND IS NOW HEADING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...THE SWELLS AND ACCOMPANYING HIGH SURF SHOULD SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAZ022>024-RIZ006-008-160445-
/O.NEW.KBOX.SU.Y.0004.120916T1200Z-120917T0000Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-WASHINGTON RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
432 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY.

* LOCATION...OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON CAPE COD...NANTUCKET...SOUTH
SIDE OF MARTHAS VINEYARD...BLOCK ISLAND AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RI.

* SURF HEIGHT...GENERALLY 7 TO 10 FEET.

* TIMING...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR BEACH GOERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RIP CURRENT...SOMETIMES MISTAKENLY CALLED AN UNDERTOW...IS A
STRONG BUT NARROW CURRENT OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE BEACH TO THE
SURF ZONE. IT CAN RAPIDLY CARRY A SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER AND
EXHAUST AN INDIVIDUAL TRYING TO SWIM AGAINST IT.

IF YOU ARE A POOR SWIMMER AND ARE CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL OUT OF ITS PULL. ANOTHER MEANS OF
ESCAPE FOR THOSE WHO ARE GOOD SWIMMERS IS TO RIDE THE CURRENT OUT
BEYOND THE SURF ZONE WHERE THE RIP CURRENT DISSIPATES...THEN SWIM
TOWARD SHORE OUTSIDE THE EFFECT OF THE NARROW RIP CURRENT.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM BACK TO SHORE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE
CURRENT...IT CAN EXHAUST AND DROWN EVEN THE STRONGEST SWIMMER.

HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND SWIM ONLY AT GUARDED
BEACHES. WATCH YOUR CHILDREN. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS NEAR PIERS
AND JETTIES WHERE RIP CURRENTS CAN BE ENHANCED.

IN ADDITION...VIEWERS OF LARGE SURF SHOULD BE IN SAFE AREAS WELL
AWAY FROM POSSIBLE SPLASH OVER. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN
TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH CAN SWEEP A PERSON INTO
THE WATER FROM WHAT MAY SEEM TO BE A SAFE VIEWING AREA. FALLING
INTO THE TURBULENT AND SOMETIMES ROCKY WATERS CAN RESULT IN
INJURY THAT REDUCES THE CHANCE OF SURVIVAL.

&&

$$

THOMPSON
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462. hamla
a couple of weeks back a few of the models had something devoloping in the boc .i wonder if this materalizes could it be oscar or the next one .it was around the 19th of sept. any thoughts??
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I just did, been a long day today. Luckily the weather was terrific at the UoM game today.
Yes the weather as very beautiful today with a chill in the air.Really refreshing after the monsterous heat here this summer.
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Flooding in Okinawa.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275


Woooww!!!!!Big difference between statical and Dynamical models
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting washingtonian115:
wxchaser come out on the blog.You seem lonely :).

I just did, been a long day today. Luckily the weather was terrific at the UoM game today.
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Just got back from the Michigan game, we beat UMass 63-13. I see we got 92L and Nadine still at 80mph.
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wxchaser come out on the blog.You seem lonely :).
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Quoting sar2401:

I really have no idea, which is typical with these diffuse invests. I do notice a little convection developing further west in the cloud field, so that may mean something or nothing at all. As you say, we really are going to have to wait for later updates to see what the NHC thinks.

Yeah...I see the dot of new convection further west too...

Appreciate this spirited debate here...at least we don't hack each other up like politicians do in debates...nor do you see politicians saying they will wear clown suits if they are wrong...
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Found this cool link of Hurricane Donna with newspaper headlines, weather maps, and youtube videos based on the storm.

Link
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Quoting Chicklit:

another long day
adios and goodnight

GN, Chicklit. I hope your sleep is better than "non-committal". :)
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452. BDAwx
another reporting station in the eyewall of Sanba reported sustained winds of 38.5m/s (about 86mph) with a gust to 57.1m/s (about 128mph)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What's wrong with an invest of high clouds? Just kidding...

Earlier I would have said that 92L is under that blob...say around 1500Z. I am gonna check out the TAFB maps at 0000Z tonight. If they have the wave axis positioned near the Lesser Antilles....do you still believe that 92L is under the blob? Is the Invest the blob or the wave axis?

I really have no idea, which is typical with these diffuse invests. I do notice a little convection developing further west in the cloud field, so that may mean something or nothing at all. As you say, we really are going to have to wait for later updates to see what the NHC thinks.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Same was say of Michael and he shut up even the most amazing and intelligent bloggers in here 92l may do the same Washi so in case be prepare.
Yeah..but the MDR this year just hasn't been favorable this year for storms to really take off.Notice some of our stronger storms(Kirk,Gordon,and Micheal) have all formed outside of the MDR in the subtropics where conditions have been much more favorable for storm development and intensification.This has dry air to contend with and that has been a real challenge for storms this year.
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another long day
adios and goodnight
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92L looks noncommittal at this time
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Quoting weatherbro:


Hopefully that cut-off low expected to get trapped under that PNA ridge will help nudge that trough axis a bit more eastward by the last week of September so that Florida can get an ideal shot of Autumn air!!!

So far I'm liking this trend.:)
I believe Florida will get some cooler air, but not for the southern third. Severe weather for New England and Northern Mid-Atlantic states shows well on the NAM and has the attention of the SPC.. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP FROM HUDSON BAY
SWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO N-CENTRAL/NWRN GULF DAY-4. BY
19/00Z...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...DESCRIBED IN DAY-2/DAY-3
OUTLOOKS...SHOULD REACH INLAND MID-ATLC REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS...PERHAPS AS FAR E AS VA-GA PIEDMONT REGION. STG
LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD OCCUR...WITH PREFRONTAL 60S DEW
POINTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER 60S TO 70S FROM COASTAL
MID-ATLC SWD. LIKELY STG COMPONENT OF FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO FRONT
MAY BE ONE LIMITING FACTOR...AS WOULD BE MRGL LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
HOWEVER...JUXTAPOSITION OF INCREASING WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD CORRIDOR OF
CONCENTRATED LOW-CAPE/STG-SHEAR SVR THREAT...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND.

DAY-5/19TH/20TH...SVR WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/DIURNAL HEATING CAN OCCUR TO
YIELD AT LEAST MRGL PREFRONTAL CAPE. HOWEVER...GREATER UNCERTAINTY
ON SPEED/TIMING OF FROPA PRECLUDES SPECIFIC 30% UNCONDITIONAL-SVR
LINE ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2012
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Quoting sar2401:

OK, we'll all remember that. How do you like your crow done? :)


lol
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Quoting washingtonian115:
But it has a very small chance of doing so :).C'mon a cat 3 or better?.The ships always go nuts with intensity of invest.
Same was say of Michael and he shut up even the most amazing and intelligent bloggers in here 92l may do the same Washi so in case be prepare.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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