Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

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The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

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I wouldn't try to push the envelope too fast, still a 20% invest ATM.

THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nope, in fact they have been rising, tells me that 92L is in a high pressure environment, but remember Michael developed in a high pressure environment.


I agree. Well so far convective activity has been persistent...albeit disorganized. Tonight will be an interesting night as 92 def. needs more convection to get going. So far it has held it's own...needs a good dmax for sure.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
pressure at 92L
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Quoting wxwonder1:


Hey GT...been keeping an eye on this one. So far pressures have not been falling.
Nope, in fact they have been rising, tells me that 92L is in a high pressure environment, but remember Michael developed in a high pressure environment.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Flare-up blob is at buoy 41101:



Station 41101
Meteo France
Location: 14.600N 56.201W
Date: Sun, 16 Sep 2012 03:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 12.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F


Hey GT...been keeping an eye on this one. So far pressures have not been falling.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Flare-up blob is at buoy 41101:



Station 41101
Meteo France
Location: 14.600N 56.201W
Date: Sun, 16 Sep 2012 03:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 12.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Heaviest thunderstorms to 92L's southeast are being sheared to death. Looks like 20-25 Knots.


Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
Latest GFS doesn't like 92L's chances. We'll have to see if its attitude changes tomorrow and what DMAX brings.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine may be stronger than 70 knots now.



Agreed.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Sure looks less impressive, we'll have to wait and see how it looks in the morning.



Look where TAFB at 00z has the low.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14256
Shear is not looking too bad in the Caribbean:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
531. JLPR2
I see that 92L's 850mb vort is weakening and will probably dissipate as its decent MLC seems to have taken over. As of now the MLC has made its way to the 700mb level by tomorrow it could dig down to the surface, forming a new LLC.

Here is the 850mb vort.


Compare it to the 500mb (MLC) vort.


Tomorrow could be an interesting day for 92L, or not. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53831
Quoting hurricane23:


Early guess..florida threat in terms of track if it developes similar to wilma. Not intensity


I agree.
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528. JLPR2
Sure looks less impressive, we'll have to wait and see how it looks in the morning.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


For Monday afternoon if needed.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 15 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
FOR 17/1800Z IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.5N 64.0W.


That was at 11 this morning, things have changed.
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92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
13.85N/55.5W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine may be stronger than 70 knots now.


Yeah I think it may be a little stronger, but not by to much.
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Nadine may be stronger than 70 knots now.

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Quoting Grothar:
You all laugh at me, but I use sophisticated calculus and physics to determine my blobs.

Very nice professor; the sophistication speaks for itself. :)
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GFS 12 hrs. trying to bite for development.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628


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Quoting Grothar:


I think they might tomorrow if the convection keeps building.


For Monday afternoon if needed.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 15 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
FOR 17/1800Z IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.5N 64.0W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14256
You all laugh at me, but I use sophisticated calculus and physics to determine my blobs.

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Quoting unknowncomic:
Time to send HH?


I think they might tomorrow if the convection keeps building.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Whatca thinking Gro? I was thinking strong re-curve, weak west but, with the high building in the Bahama's I'm not so sure now. I can see appreciable strengthening down the road.


The high is building back up. I do not see anything at the moment that would move this one NW or North. It really is something to watch. These are the ones that just sneak up on you sometimes.

Very little dry air




Nice little high and no troughs coming down far enough

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Whatca thinking Gro? I was thinking strong re-curve, weak west but, with the high building in the Bahama's I'm not so sure now. I can see appreciable strengthening down the road.


Early guess..florida threat in terms of track if it developes similar to wilma. Not intensity
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Quoting etxwx:
Uh oh. Quote: "They always forget about volcanoes."

Japan finds another gap in its disaster readiness - Mount Fuji
TOKYO | Sat Sep 15, 2012 By Sophie Knight

Excerpt: (Reuters) - When Toshitsugu Fujii became head of a Japanese task force on disaster response at Mount Fuji, he was confronted with a startling oversight. Japan had no plan in place to deal with a disaster in which an earthquake sparks a volcanic eruption at the country's most famous landmark. Fujii said a tremor "greatly increases" the chance of an eruption in a country that has experienced nearly 12,000 earthquakes since the magnitude 9.0 tremor that led to disaster on March 11, 2011.

"They always forget about the volcanoes," he said. "The government has never included Mt. Fuji in its earthquake scenarios."

Fujii's job is to change that. More than a year after the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plant meltdown that scarred a generation of Japanese, the government is still working to close the gaps in its disaster response.

Scientists say that the 2011 earthquake may have increased the chances of Mount Fuji erupting. The disaster caused a series of tremors around the mountain, including a magnitude 6.4 quake directly beneath it that caused a 20 meter-long crack in its side and put pressure on the volcano's magma chamber. The volcano is active and if an eruption was to occur it would potentially threaten a vast area including Tokyo, 100 km (62 miles) away.


Continued here.


I posted a comment about that about a week or so ago.

Recent studies assume an increased risk of earthquakes in the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai regions, which lie at the edge of the Nankai Trough, where a larger quake is expected. In the worst case, a series of simultaneous severe quakes could cause up to 323,000 deaths and additionally trigger an eruption of Mount Fuji, the gloomy conclusion
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The 00z surface analysis by TAFB.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14256
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Quoting Grothar:
Flare-up of convection building near the center. I may have to declare a blob alert so the NHC will know what to do.


My blob alarm just woke me up.
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Quoting Grothar:
Flare-up of convection building near the center. I may have to declare a blob alert so the NHC will know what to do.




Whatca thinking Gro? I was thinking strong re-curve, weak west but, with the high building in the Bahama's I'm not so sure now. I can see appreciable strengthening down the road.
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Quoting Grothar:
Flare-up of convection building near the center. I may have to declare a blob alert so the NHC will know what to do.


Time to send HH?
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Flare-up of convection building near the center. I may have to declare a blob alert so the NHC will know what to do.


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Nadine
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505. etxwx
Uh oh. Quote: "They always forget about volcanoes."

Japan finds another gap in its disaster readiness - Mount Fuji
TOKYO | Sat Sep 15, 2012 By Sophie Knight

Excerpt: (Reuters) - When Toshitsugu Fujii became head of a Japanese task force on disaster response at Mount Fuji, he was confronted with a startling oversight. Japan had no plan in place to deal with a disaster in which an earthquake sparks a volcanic eruption at the country's most famous landmark. Fujii said a tremor "greatly increases" the chance of an eruption in a country that has experienced nearly 12,000 earthquakes since the magnitude 9.0 tremor that led to disaster on March 11, 2011.

"They always forget about the volcanoes," he said. "The government has never included Mt. Fuji in its earthquake scenarios."

Fujii's job is to change that. More than a year after the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plant meltdown that scarred a generation of Japanese, the government is still working to close the gaps in its disaster response.

Scientists say that the 2011 earthquake may have increased the chances of Mount Fuji erupting. The disaster caused a series of tremors around the mountain, including a magnitude 6.4 quake directly beneath it that caused a 20 meter-long crack in its side and put pressure on the volcano's magma chamber. The volcano is active and if an eruption was to occur it would potentially threaten a vast area including Tokyo, 100 km (62 miles) away.


Continued here.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



Take a chill pill I sure it was this a mistake. No need too jump on him for a small mistake

Sorry Taz but you need to take a chill pill. How was what I said "jump" on him? Geez dude go to bed.




Sanba Floods the Philippines
A resident wades through a flooded street following heavy rains spawned by Sanba on Saturday, Sept. 15, 2012 at San Juan City, east of Manila, Philippines.

Link
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53831
The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53831
Quoting washingtonian115:
But it has a very small chance of doing so :).C'mon a cat 3 or better?.The ships always go nuts with intensity of invest.



as always sometimes things can and will happen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53831
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Impressive that almost all of the intensity models really intensify 92L. Not sold on development right now, but incase you all where wondering the current lack of convection is to be expected. Large waves with such little in the way of convergence and a circulation naturally are weaker and henceforth succumb during night to DMIN. You always find though that in the morning that no matter how disorganized it looks, a new structure takes place, always. You could go from a mammoth tropical wave to a small yet stronger one in 24 hours because of the constant waxing and waning of convection.


Keep in mind ships guidance most of the time isnt very trustworthy without something classified. Still something to keep tabs on as a better environment may lie ahead.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Storm like Michael and Gordon this year were the type that are shallower than usual such that they are less sensitive to vertical shear...which is why I think both storms were surprising...

Storms like 92L that form in the deep tropics tend to have typically tall structures...not saying that 92L won't strengthen because I haven't yet had time to take a good look at this...

Yeah that's part of it and the subtropics have just been more favorable in general this year.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Link
The Jersey Shore's electric infrastructure is just like this in Japan as well. This explains the lack of damage in Irene on the shore versus inland and in the northern counties. Over the last decade top-end wind resistant utility wire technology upgrades were made from Cape May to Sandy Hook. Ten years ago, Irene would have caused us to be without power for days.
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Quoting popartpete:
I always pictured Japan as looking so different then where I live in New Jersey. Well, my neighborhood looks EXACTLY like this. ...


Maybe some of those Construction codes should be applied around Hurricane areas in Conus... look very robust....
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Quoting AussieStorm:

pssst. that is not Okinawa. That's San Juan City, east of Manila, Philippines. before posting an image, please make sure you it right.



Take a chill pill I sure it was this a mistake. No need too jump on him for a small mistake
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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