Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

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The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 595 - 545

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
T numbers are suggesting Nadine isn't even close to hurricane status right now.


Well sure...if you're using CIMSS.

It would help if they would analyze the center position correctly.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Good morning, everyone. I see that 92L has finally displaced her convection to the west and left what was the area of convection last night further SE. The wind barbs from bouys and stations in the area suggest a closed but very broad low. Does anyone have a guess where 92L's COC, if it exists, might be?
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A huge storm is continuing to impact Alaska. Winds have been at hurricane force out there.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH
AND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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92L still at 20%.
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Puerto Rico NWS Disco

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANY BY A GOOD SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
FLOODING OVER SOME AREAS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
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T numbers are suggesting Nadine isn't even close to hurricane status right now.

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Here'e my new blog post on Invest 92L Link
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584. viman
I''m up because I have to, not by choice, that's for sure... So I definitely see your point, just thought that more people would be on, morning here, but afternoon, elsewhere...
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Quoting viman:
2 posts per hour????

It's 7AM on Sunday morning. Most normal people are asleep at this time. Only freaks like me and you are awake :)
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582. viman
2 posts per hour????
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581. viman
Is there another weather blog, a secret weather society blog tingy, WHERE IS EVERYONE - ASLEEP!!! Sorry bout the screaming thing... Good morning everyone!!!
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Good morning. Sanba appears to be entering another EWRC:



It will never finish this one though, as conditions over it have become extremely unfavorable and it is closing in on landfall.

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579. viman
Tell me it isn't so!!!
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Good morning everyone, severe weather outbreak shown for the NE in 3 days and Nadine is still looking good.
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Quoting Skyepony:
There was NWS server troubles earlier today.


The servers were down early Sat morning as well, seem to be up now.
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A powerful autumn storm is forecast to bring strong wind and heavy rain to much of Southcentral Alaska beginning Saturday evening. Due to recent rainfall, the ground is saturated leading to a greater risk of flooding and fallen trees. Significant power outages are possible. Winds in Anchorage could gust to 65 mph, and farther east in the higher elevations winds could gust to 110 mph
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Largo.. folks!
....good morning
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Quoting indianrivguy:
92l makes me nervous. Lots of rocket fuel, low shear, cold fronts have started pushing down... Wilma like tracks running up the face of the fronts.. bad for Florida
yes watching this one closely alright
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92l makes me nervous. Lots of rocket fuel, low shear, cold fronts have started pushing down... Wilma like tracks running up the face of the fronts.. bad for Florida
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Mornin' Largo.. folks!
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.............................good morning folks
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567. JLPR2
92L doesn't look impressive, but rain is on its way to Barbados.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
566. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
15:00 PM JST September 16 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In East China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (930 hPa) located at 28.8N 128.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
140 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 35.3N 127.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Korean Peninsula
48 HRS: 44.5N 131.3E - Extratropical Low near Maritime Province (Russia)
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Blog update, guys!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
okinawa after sanba


Thanks Wes.
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Quoting listenerVT:
AussieStorm: Yikes on that fire tornado! What caused it?


Small wiki write-up on them:
Link
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okinawa after sanba
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
AussieStorm: Yikes on that fire tornado! What caused it?
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Quoting AussieStorm:
This is just a little scary.



Good thing we don't have fire hurricanes!
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This is just a little scary.

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Nothing changed on the TWO.

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557. Skyepony (Mod)
There was NWS server troubles earlier today.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38170
Quoting wxchaser97:
I am trying to submit my CoCoRaHS application and I get their error message even though I've filled out everything. It says the server doesn't exist or it has timed out, what is going on?


I just visited their website and got an error message. I'd say just wait.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Nadine is still looking good, and T#'s are back up to 4.5.



The convection is not as intense as several hours ago, but it IS wrapping around the center very nicely. This should help close off the dry air and allow her to intensify.

And I couldn't agree with you more about rooting against ND, even if that means an MSU win, haha.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Jeez, that will likely help it climb up the ACE table.

Yeah that would give us a big boost. Add that and possible development from 92L then we could see ACE near 100.
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I am trying to submit my CoCoRaHS application and I get their error message even though I've filled out everything. It says the server doesn't exist or it has timed out, what is going on?
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552. JLPR2
Quoting GTcooliebai:
11 days out and Nadine is still with us.



Jeez, that will likely help it climb up the ACE table.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Nadine is still looking good, and T#'s are back up to 4.5.

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Sanba still looks mean and has an intense eyewall.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
11 days out and Nadine is still with us.



Kyle redux, except farther north?
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11 days out and Nadine is still with us.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
BTW, thank you Grothar and Adrian for your responses. Had to catch the end of the Notre Dame game, 3-0 for the first time in a decade. Shy Excitement you could say.

Oh no, I wanted MSU to win. I don't like MSU but I really don't like ND. Today was a great day for football weather wise.
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BTW, thank you Grothar and Adrian for your responses. Had to catch the end of the Notre Dame game, 3-0 for the first time in a decade. Shy Excitement you could say.
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I wouldn't try to push the envelope too fast, still a 20% invest ATM.

THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.