Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

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The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Pasco County is in Florida?

Morning, everyone.
yes
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
Quoting LargoFl:
Some people up in Pasco county might be losing Power shortly...not a good day to be flying an ultralight plane huh..............LAND O' LAKES --
Pasco County Fire and Rescue personnel are responding to an ultralight aircraft crash near Pilot Country Airport at U.S. 41 and State Road 52, authorities said.

There is no word yet and whether anyone was injured or what caused the crash.

According to the Pasco County Sheriff's Office, the pilot is unresponsive and the plane is caught in power lines.

Pilot Country Airport is a small air park located between Land O' Lakes and Spring Hill. An ultralight is a small, recreational aircraft.

Motorists are urged to avoid the intersection of U.S. 41 and S.R. 52. Traffic on S.R. 52 is being diverted to Ehren Cutoff Road and U.S. 41.


Pasco County is in Florida?

Morning, everyone.
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Keep us posted largo....

Hope the pilot is ok.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
Some people up in Pasco county might be losing Power shortly...not a good day to be flying an ultralight plane huh..............LAND O' LAKES --
Pasco County Fire and Rescue personnel are responding to an ultralight aircraft crash near Pilot Country Airport at U.S. 41 and State Road 52, authorities said.

There is no word yet and whether anyone was injured or what caused the crash.

According to the Pasco County Sheriff's Office, the pilot is unresponsive and the plane is caught in power lines.

Pilot Country Airport is a small air park located between Land O' Lakes and Spring Hill. An ultralight is a small, recreational aircraft.

Motorists are urged to avoid the intersection of U.S. 41 and S.R. 52. Traffic on S.R. 52 is being diverted to Ehren Cutoff Road and U.S. 41.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
New JTWC advisory puts Sanba at 90kts, about 12 hours from landfall.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7777
This area of tepid water near Cuba is growing.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1903
Quoting 92Andrew:
Good morning Wunderground.

Currently located in Seoul, South Korea here.

Right now we are receiving light rain with light winds from Typhoon Sanba. Sometimes it gets gusty, but nothing over 30 mph. Schools and businesses recently decided to close for Monday hours due to the storm in the south of the country. I don't think the capital, Seoul, will decide to shut down schools, as it is located far to the north and west of the projected land fall area. The eye is suppose to jog more to the east from here on out, but so far, it is going due north (towards Seoul). It should begin making a more pronounce eastward turn in the next few hours.


Mike.


Stay safe and good luck.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Well, we've had 14 named storms this year, and only one made it (barely) to a major.


Is that an observation or a complaint?
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TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120916 1200 120917 0000 120917 1200 120918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 54.9W 14.0N 56.5W 14.5N 58.2W 15.0N 60.1W
BAMD 13.3N 54.9W 13.8N 57.6W 14.1N 60.3W 14.4N 62.9W
BAMM 13.3N 54.9W 13.9N 57.0W 14.4N 59.2W 14.8N 61.3W
LBAR 13.3N 54.9W 13.9N 57.2W 14.6N 59.6W 15.2N 61.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120918 1200 120919 1200 120920 1200 120921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 62.1W 16.5N 66.5W 17.5N 71.1W 18.1N 75.6W
BAMD 14.6N 65.5W 15.3N 70.6W 16.2N 75.0W 16.9N 78.9W
BAMM 15.1N 63.8W 15.7N 68.9W 16.6N 74.2W 17.5N 79.1W
LBAR 15.8N 64.2W 16.7N 69.0W 18.5N 73.6W 20.8N 78.3W
SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 80KTS 87KTS
DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 80KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
12z Best Track for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091612, , BEST, 0, 133N, 549W, 25, 1011, LO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
Good morning Wunderground.

Currently located in Seoul, South Korea here.

Right now we are receiving light rain with light winds from Typhoon Sanba. Sometimes it gets gusty, but nothing over 30 mph. Schools and businesses recently decided to close for Monday hours due to the storm in the south of the country. I don't think the capital, Seoul, will decide to shut down schools, as it is located far to the north and west of the projected land fall area. The eye is suppose to jog more to the east from here on out, but so far, it is going due north (towards Seoul). It should begin making a more pronounce eastward turn in the next few hours.


Mike.
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GFS on Nadine

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Nadine seems to now be moving ESE
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92L should in time get into a less hostile environment and could develope. As mentioned last night anything that ends up on nw Carib will quickly get recurved towards Florida similar to that of Wilma or Keith. Gulf looks rather hostile though
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Look what some of the models want to do with Nadine.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Quoting icmoore:
YES, the Cheif Blobologist is in the house! Good morning Doc Gro and everyone!


Morna, ic. That is a typical Scandinavian Good Morning.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Quoting Abacosurf:


13.4 55.1 did you see it second? Or was that first?

Good morning sir. :)


Good morning to you. I saw it first. :P
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
For the south Florida wishcasters.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1903
There is currently a ULL which has been shearing 92L from the west. However, this is expected to lessen and by tomorrow, a high pressure system should be moving over 92L over the next few days. This should aid in at least a small amount of development. It should be moving in the direction of some dry air in the far eastern Caribbean and then an area of some very moist air. For the time being, look at 92L as an elevator operator; it will have its ups and downs.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Dropping boat on lift as I type....Going to sneak out in Naples before that stuff to the south gets me. I hope!
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Quoting Grothar:


13.5N 55.3W


13.4 55.1 did you see it second? Or was that first?

Good morning sir. :)
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ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091612, , BEST, 0, 305N, 428W, 70, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 40, 30, 0, 1013, 290, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,


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Quoting LargoFl:

I think the size and date of that cold front in the Gulf is optimistic. The front is currently hung up in the northern Plains and most models are slowing it down and washing most of it out over south AL. It certainly doesn't look like the cooler air is going to get that far out into the Gulf.
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Good Morning... well 92L not as stacked as yesterday. 500MB VORT well to the W of the 850/700MB VORT.

I give it for the time being 30% change until it gets further stacked once more (if it decides to try again).
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Quoting Abacosurf:
That looks reasonable to me. A few more frames will be helpful.


13.5N 55.3W
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Good Morning!:)
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Quoting stormpetrol:


My guess would be around 12.8N/54.7W, looking at the early visible.Link

That's about where I thought also, somewhere around last night's convection. If that's true, the low is making almost no progrees N or W. although convection has managed to move N and W. Even though conditions may become more favorable in about three days, I'm not sure 92L has that long to hang around out there.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar...is 92L going over "MY" house yet?


I think first over the Caymans then two block North of you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, we've had 14 named storms this year, and only one made it (barely) to a major.

Yes, but there have been eight hurricanes. That is more than the entire season last year.

Gordon was very close to becoming a major, and one could argue so was Kirk.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Grothar...is 92L going over "MY" house yet?
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YES, the Chief Blobologist is in the house! Good morning Doc Gro and everyone!
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Quoting stormpetrol:


My guess would be around 12.8N/54.7W, looking at the early visible.Link
That looks reasonable to me. A few more frames will be helpful.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
6Z GFS 384HR
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Again, a lack of vertical instability doesn't mean we still can't see monster hurricanes.


Well, we've had 14 named storms this year, and only one made it (barely) to a major.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WELL if nothing else, that guy on the islands who was crying for rain will finally get it 92L seems to be headed that way
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
We have a new invest.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209161003
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7777
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Quoting sar2401:
Good morning, everyone. I see that 92L has finally displaced her convection to the west and left what was the area of convection last night further SE. The wind barbs from bouys and stations in the area suggest a closed but very broad low. Does anyone have a guess where 92L's COC, if it exists, might be?


My guess would be around 12.8N/54.7W, looking at the early visible.Link
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7777
Quoting yonzabam:


Lots of storms this season and last season have mysteriously failed to strengthen. The common factor appears to be lack of vertical instability, which weakens convection. 92L will experience this inhibiting factor where its going. Another dud.



Again, a lack of vertical instability doesn't mean we still can't see monster hurricanes.
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Quoting Grothar:
You all laugh at me, but I use sophisticated calculus and physics to determine my blobs.





Grothar is "state-of-the-art".
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Quoting indianrivguy:
92l makes me nervous. Lots of rocket fuel, low shear, cold fronts have started pushing down... Wilma like tracks running up the face of the fronts.. bad for Florida


Lots of storms this season and last season have mysteriously failed to strengthen. The common factor appears to be lack of vertical instability, which weakens convection. 92L will experience this inhibiting factor where its going. Another dud.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A huge storm is continuing to impact Alaska. Winds have been at hurricane force out there.


I knew there was a reason I didn't live in Alaska. :)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
T numbers are suggesting Nadine isn't even close to hurricane status right now.


Well sure...if you're using CIMSS.

It would help if they would analyze the center position correctly.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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