Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

Share this Blog
32
+

The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 245 - 195

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting sar2401:

What do you base that on? I'm seeing an a small area of convection to the SE and lots of blowoff cirrus to the north and west as the wind shear eats up the convection. I don't think that's creating any kind of moisture field.
The small area of convection is on top of the apparent COC, that is a plus for a developing system...just saying
Quoting kmanislander:


We are currently at the climatological peak of the season though. In 1988 Gilbert became a TD at 12 N and 54 W. You know the rest.

Any feature like this located where it is this time of year needs watching. While no two years are the same 92L is low down with lotsa of very warm deep water ahead.
Agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
In october though, Jose also formed in the same general area and again headed much more NW than predicted.


2010 hurricane tomas intensify quickly td/ts before reaching the islands and hurricane over the islands...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
the 18z Nogaps is currently running-This is through 120 hours..the only model to pick up 92L..BOOM!!!







Luvin it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18Z GFS RUN

ANIM LINK

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
The Eastern blob associated to 92L looks suspicious
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the 18z Nogaps is currently running-This is through 120 hours..the only model to pick up 92L..BOOM!!!





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Will be back later
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In october though, Jose also formed in the same general area and again headed much more NW than predicted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Marilyn also formed around 12N 53W in 1995.. and didn't follow the mod runs. We know the rest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

True, but 92L has a lot of work to do before I think the models have missed this one. Open waves do develop all the time in the Caribbean and very few become more than that.


We are currently at the climatological peak of the season though. In 1988 Gilbert became a TD at 12 N and 54 W. You know the rest.

Any feature like this located where it is this time of year needs watching. While no two years are the same 92L is low down with lots of very warm deep water ahead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L PLEASE GIVE US RAIN HERE IN THE N LEEWARDS Don't give it all to the southern islands once again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

The SHIPS model always overdoes intensity. 92L looks pretty terrible right now but I suspect it can at least squeeze out a TD before the dry air and trades finish it off.
Well, there is one thing on its favor, climatology. Its not unusual for this systems around mid-September to gain strength rather quickly as they approach the islands. Will see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
232. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JLPR2, I dont know but I have some vibes about Jeanne and 92L when she was in the formative stage. But 92L is south of where that one formed into a TD.


As I said a few days ago I have a gut feeling it will be something before reaching the islands, probably a TD. Though in the past my gut feelings have been wrong, consistently. XD

The few models that have been run on 92L show it passing to our south, around 16-17n, close enough to bring some rain and squally weather.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
JLPR2, I dont know but I have some vibes about Jeanne and 92L when she was in the formative stage. But 92L is south of where that one formed into a TD.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14321
Quoting kmanislander:


Many features like this have developed without any model support.If it continues to ramp up you might be surprised to see how fast some of the models change their tune.

Rule of thumb is: watch and wait.

True, but 92L has a lot of work to do before I think the models have missed this one. Open waves do develop all the time in the Caribbean and very few become more than that.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16073
Quoting stormpetrol:
92L is creating its own moisture field ahead of it, instead of moisture lagging behind the low, 92L is different, it has the moisture ahead of it.

What do you base that on? I'm seeing an a small area of convection to the SE and lots of blowoff cirrus to the north and west as the wind shear eats up the convection. I don't think that's creating any kind of moisture field.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16073
Quoting sar2401:

Because SHIPS and LGEM overdevelop every invest into a hurricane. I don't know what the NOGAPS is seeing but there are no other reliable models that develop 92L beyond an open wave. I suspect the solution is probably a TD but not much more. It should bring rain to those areas of the Caribbean that need it but it doesn't look like a hurricane right now.


Many features like this have developed without any model support.If it continues to ramp up you might be surprised to see how fast some of the models change their tune.

Rule of thumb is: watch and wait.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sirmichaelfish
@sirmichaelfish

So far Nago is down to 947.1hPa. Sustained winds of 25.9m/s (50kts) gusting to 42.9m/s (83kts) in #Typhoon #Sanba.

12 minutes ago via Twitter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


But why SHIP,LGEM and NOGAPS develop it?

Because SHIPS and LGEM overdevelop every invest into a hurricane. I don't know what the NOGAPS is seeing but there are no other reliable models that develop 92L beyond an open wave. I suspect the solution is probably a TD but not much more. It should bring rain to those areas of the Caribbean that need it but it doesn't look like a hurricane right now.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16073
Good afternoon everyone

92L has come along quite nicely today. Let's see what it can do between 53 and 63 W. A tight window within which to close off a surface low but not impossible as the last few visible frames show a fairly well defined low level inflow just near the deepest convection.

Regardless of what it does in the short term this one looks like a Caribbean cruiser.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
Quoting stormchaser19:
??????????????

The SHIPS model always overdoes intensity. 92L looks pretty terrible right now but I suspect it can at least squeeze out a TD before the dry air and trades finish it off.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16073
Typhoon 17W (Sanba), # 22: TCCOR 1-E set for Okinawa
By DAVE ORNAUER
Published: September 15, 2012

5:20 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E(emergency) at 5:11 a.m. No outside activity allowed. Stay indoors until TCCORStorm Watch.


http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracke r/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/typhoon-17w-sanba -22-tccor-1-e-set-for-okinawa-1.189503
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
@typhoonfury

In exact middle of eye of #typhoon #Sanba in Higashi, it couldn't have come soon enough. That eyewall was H*** (with all caps)

Man, that must be something. I hope you do OK when the rest of the strom makes it through. Stay safe.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16073
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I feel like TS Kristy deserves a mention. It's pretty impressive that its managing to hang on as a fairly well structured TS over very cool waters.



Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Floater is up for 92L.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That was fast. The floater for 92L has already been put up.



This is the link.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
I feel like TS Kristy deserves a mention. It's pretty impressive that its managing to hang on as a fairly well structured TS over very cool waters.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
215. Skyepony (Mod)
GEOS-5 increases the moisture of 92L, wants to wrap it up with land also coming into play as an inhibitor. Toward the end of the 06Z it has it as a broad surface low. 12Z isn't done yet. GEOS-5 really runs in the rears.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@typhoonfury

In exact middle of eye of #typhoon #Sanba in Higashi, it couldn't have come soon enough. That eyewall was H*** (with all caps)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd bump 92L's chances up to 30%...maybe 40%...in the next Tropical Weather Outlook.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
??????????????
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2159
210. Skyepony (Mod)
SANBA, click pic for loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L's 200mb vorticity at 1800UTC:



And 200mb vort at 2100 UTC (Latest):



Starting to get its act together.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remember, SHIPS develops, and often significantly strengthens, every invest that forms. Don't use it or the LGEM until development actually happens. Right now I would say there is essentially no model support for 92L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Nadine

Rorschach Test
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't see 92L forming before the "Graveyard"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind shear forecast for 92L from SHIPS model:


SHEAR (KT) 22 22 18 15 16 10 10 9 13 13 16 15 12

Shear is forecasted to remain in the moderate range over the next 120 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
203. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The biggest inhibitor for development will be dry air.

700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 54 54 51 53 47 48 48 47 48 54

I find it interesting that our best statistical model makes this a strong hurricane. It does not usually do things like that.


XD Such an optimistic model.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
T numbers are actually coming up some on Sanba.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not concerned about 92L. Global models do not intensify it past an open wave.


But why SHIP,LGEM and NOGAPS develop it?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14321
The biggest inhibitor for development will be dry air.

700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 54 54 51 53 47 48 48 47 48 54

I find it interesting that our best statistical model makes this a strong hurricane. It does not usually do things like that with the global models showing no development.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kise Beach Palace cam is back up. Couldn't connect for a while.

Link


And stuff's blowing around in the street on the Mango House cam now.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, like I said, not enough to prevent development, although SHIPS is showing a bit higher shear, more like 10-20kts. I think it will be the dry air and lack of instability that prevent development.



guss will have too see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not concerned about 92L. Global models do not intensify it past an open wave.


Teddy I wouldn't bet on, I have to admit the models have been good this Season, but you can't bet on them all the time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239

Viewing: 245 - 195

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.