Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa
The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.
Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.
FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.
Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan
Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.
A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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But if it were to develop into a tropical system, it would most likely be pulled northward.
I don't wish a storm on anyone, but I kind of want 92L to develop. A local meteorologist completely dismissed 92L because of dry air and wind shear. He basically said "92L is no worry to us."
He's most likely right, but I hate it when meteorologists act like they have a crystal ball and they can see the future (100% for sure).
Actually if anyone has a chance to see any impacts from this system in the conus it would be florida as there will be some opportunity for this to be recurved northeastward by a trof of low pressure. Right now the enviroment remains quite hostile but down the road in west carib it may have a shot.
Agreed. If this fails to develop though, it should go into Mexico.
Looks like it's gonna crash into South America.
Is that an academic enquiry or a wishcast?
That's a pretty clear picture there Gro. Looks like Jeanne's models back in 04, lol.
Gulf looks very hostile
With High Pressure building in the Bahama's and regular troughs coming down, it's a distinct possibility. Assuming it develops, that is. Models aren't currently impressed however. Clear as Mud ATM.
*hums Christmassy*
Let it grow, let it grow, let it grow... Would give us some nice cool water if it did.
Interesting size of that colder area where Isaac went through.
She was a twister for sure.
Why 92L doesn't recurve? Are we going to stay without rain???
We wish all for a big system, that's right cariboy...
Powerful typhoon approaches S. Korea
2012/09/16 11:19 KST
SEOUL/JEJU, South Korea, Sept. 16 (Yonhap) -- Thousands of ships took shelter in ports, ferry services were suspended and access to valleys and other risky areas was restricted on the southern island of Jeju as precautions Sunday as a powerful typhoon was approaching South Korea.
Packing strong winds of 48 meters per second, Typhoon Sanba was moving northward at a speed of 26 kilometers per hour from about 80 kilometers off the southern Japanese island of Okinawa as of Sunday morning, according to the Korean Meteorological Administration.
The massive storm is expected to reach about 70 kilometers off Jeju around 9 a.m. Monday before making landfall in the South Jeolla Province in South Korea's southwest. The typhoon is then expected to move over South Korea's mainland to reach about 90 kilometers from Seoul on Monday night, officials said.
Up to 400 millimeters of rain is expected before it moves out of South Korea, officials said. As the typhoon approached, Jeju and other southern regions were already receiving rain Sunday.
On Jeju, about 3,000 ships took shelter at ports around the island, ferry services linking Jeju and nearby islands were suspended, and Mount Halla and other areas considered dangerous in such a storm were declared off-limit as precautionary measures.
This is gonna be tragic if you all get missed again. Nothing worse than extreme drought in a tropical setting. Out of all the 'canes, tornadoes that summer of '98 when everything burnt up was the worse.
Looks promising on Precipitable Water.
14N 56W
yeah sorry I've been busy taking some classes and doing some military training and so now I am free for now and I am working right now off of my PS3 and so it is harder to type
I think 92L will become a true caribbean storm hey maybe even a cane "Maybe" anyway in terms of track the models speaks it for me I think this one will make it into the W caribbean and will curve into the GOM
6z NOGAPS:
0Z ECMWF:
It seems to me models are having trouble determining the exact timing of the series of troughs.
ALWAYS THE SAME!! VERY ANGRY MODE!!!
I do agree we badly need rain, and a decent TS would be so fine!! Though I don't think a Cat 3 or higher is a good idea lol :)
Also I really DON'T LIKE WHAT 92L IS DOING TO US. ALL THE RAINS SEEM TO BE FOR THE SAME ISLANDS AGAIN!!
I don't think it should develop but it could surprise people and develop out of nowhere.
yep for right now 92L RIP
Except that as the jet stream moves further north, it weakens. When it weakens, it's 'loops' meander further south, causing unusual weather.
We've had the wettest summer for 100 years here in the UK, due to being under the loops. They're usually further north.
In 2010, Russia and the Ukraine had their worst heat wave on record and Pakistan its worst floods. Unusual southerly position of the jet stream loops was blamed for both these events.
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