Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I hate global warming debates but i have to say it...so the record was set in 1913 and hasnt been topped since and in 2010, 1180 snowfall records were broken when 49 of the 50 states got snow. im no scientist but i can observe facts quite well ...tell me one more time how the earth is getting hotter?

JTWC mentioned Sanba was annular in there last discussion. While the nearly symmetrical doughnut of convection around the decent sized eye does give the impression of an annular storm, I'm not sure I totally agree with that analysis based off microwave imagery where banding is clearly present in the western semicircle.

Some pulled back shots. Click for the loop.

Hmmmmm....

"Most seriously, the temperature was measured in a paved courtyard over a black, asphalt-like material"

Ah ha, see Watts was right about the poor siting issues!
;)

Now, if Africa wants to attempt getting the world record all-time hottest temperature back, I'd suggest they have a more than excellent chance if set up an official observation station at this location - on the salt flats of Lake Assal, Djibouti... This is one of the most hellish places on earth, already situated in the extremely hot, humid Red Sea region, it's surrounded by desert, lying within the Afar depression - it's the lowest elevation in all Africa at over 500 ft below sea level (similar to Death Valley)... PLUS there's plenty of geothermal activity nearby adding to the misery index with heat from above and below... From my copy of May 1990 National Geographic feature on Africa's Great Rift Valley, page 6 illustration states - "Scorching sun casts long shadows as camels cross the salt flats of Lake Assal, Djibouti, one of the lowest places on earth at 156 meters (512 feet) below sea level. It's also one of the hottest -- summer temperatures reach 57C (135F)." ... The Wiki article also links to BBC correspondent's report, stating "At Lake Assal, in the centre of the country, the summer temperature here routinely reaches 55C (131F)...

This would be my candidate for setting any all-time NEW world heat record, if had a weather station to record it...

Quoting Invest80Lurk:
I hate global warming debates but i have to say it...so the record was set in 1913 and hasnt been topped since and in 2010, 1180 snowfall records were broken when 49 of the 50 states got snow. im no scientist but i can observe facts quite well ...tell me one more time how the earth is getting hotter?

An outlying high temperature record or two is to be expected; what's vastly more important and telling is the overwhelming imbalance between record high and record low temperatures. (For example, for 2012 to-date, the U.S. has seen more than 55,000 heat records, and just 9,500 or so cold records.)

As the Earth warms, the atmosphere is able to hold more precipitable water. That means more rain where and when it normally rains, and more snow where and when it normally snows. Scientists will tell you that beyond a shadow of a doubt the earth is warming. And they'll also guarantee you that cold and snow records will be broken this winter--just as they are every winter. GW does not mean the end of snow or cold weather; if anyone ever told you that, they were mistaken.

Nadine

208 @ 2:08

Quoting icmoore:


Yeah, it sure looks like everything got watered there today. Maybe starting to clear out soon.

a href="" target="_blank">

Yes, everything got watered, but I think I still need to water. A lot of my plants are in pots and it hasn't rained long enough for it to soak down into them. It is real hard to dig a hole in coral rock and then once you get them in the ground, you have to continually cut back. We really could use a good two to three day soaker sitting over us. Especially since the dry season is just around the corner, and I think it will start off early by way of the trough dropping down on us so early. It felt like fall last night as I was sitting out enjoying the evening breezes. I guess the birds are never wrong. Saw swallows in late July, early August. They usually don't migrate that early.

Quoting DocNDswamp:
Hmmmmm....

"Most seriously, the temperature was measured in a paved courtyard over a black, asphalt-like material"

Ah ha, see Watts was right about the poor siting issues!
;)

Now, if Africa wants to attempt getting the world record all-time hottest temperature back, I'd suggest they have a more than excellent chance if set up an official observation station at this location - on the salt flats of Lake Assal, Djibouti... This is one of the most hellish places on earth, already situated in the extrememly hot, humid Red Sea region, it's surrounded by desert, lying within the Afar depression - it's the lowest elevation in all Africa at over 500 ft below sea level (similar to Death Valley)... PLUS there's plenty of geothermal activity nearby adding to the misery index with heat from above and below... From my copy of May 1990 National Geographic feature on Africa's Great Rift Valley, page 6 illustration states - "Scorching sun casts long shadows as camels cross the salt flats of Lake Assal, Djibouti, one of the lowest places on earth at 156 meters (512 feet) below sea level. It's also one of the hottest -- summer temperatures reach 57C (135F)." ... The Wiki article also links to BBC correspondent's report, stating "At Lake Assal, in the centre of the country, the summer temperature here routinely reaches 55C (131F)...

This would be my candidate for setting any all-time NEW world heat record, if had a weather station to record it...

I've seen short lists of possible hottest-place contenders, and Lake Assal often comes in at or near the top. However, Iran's Lut Desert almost always leads the list. Based on what I've read, I've little doubt that it would almost certainly best even Death Valley were a surface station located there (a NASA satellite recorded an unverifiable temperature of 159F there in 2005).

Looks as though there was a brief satellite blackout for MTSAT. The latest imagery from Sanba is shown below and reveals the convective mass has become more asymmetric. Might see a slight drop in the dvorak numbers as a result.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

The Earth isn't getting warmer. But if you stay on this blog long enough, you'll start getting warmer to give an illusion it is warmer around.

Nah all joking aside, I really don't feel it's getting any warmer. I don't think anyone will really begin to know for quite a while once we have a better grasp on the subject.

I think the subject is starting to get a grasp on us.

- Source

If you are waiting to get a grasp on the subject of the Arctic sea ice, you had better hurry. Time is running out for you to do so.

Quoting Neapolitan:
...for 2012 to-date, the U.S. has seen more than 55,000 heat records, and just 9,500 or so cold records.

I'm not trying to disprove AGW by saying this, but isn't it easier to break a heat record than a cold record anyway? Without factors like a recent volcanic eruption to limit heating, wouldn't an open-ended heat scale allow for more records than a narrowing-toward-absolute-zero cold scale?

Of course, I never took college physics, so I could likely be wrong...

Quoting JeffMasters:


Hi, I do tend to ignore the WPac more than I should--I did add a mention of Sanba just now; thanks for the recommendation. I have meetings all morning Friday in NYC then hop on a plane, so will be unable to do a proper blog update on Friday, which is the main reason I am leaving up the current post an extra day.

Jeff Masters

Actually Sanba came almost out of the blue. The JTWCs tropical weather outlook noted the chance of development as medium still the morning of the day before yesterday or so and the warnings of the folks in Honolulu predicted a maximum as a severe tropical storm or maybe weak typhoon still through a good part of yesterday. Sanba just made boom.

Looking at Post #212, that Ice isn't disappearing because the Earth 's temp. is staying the same, or getting cooler.

edited

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I think the subject is starting to get a grasp on us.

- Source

If you are waiting to get a grasp on the subject of the Arctic sea ice, you had better hurry. Time is running out for you to do so.

That was August, Ive no doubt that the situation has taken a turn a bit more downhill form the ice point of view since then, as its now about the mid September max low ice cover point.
It will be interesting to see at what date the ice starts to recover this year?

The Canadian Model takes the blob over the Keys into the BOC and tries to develop it and swings it around as it heads back towards the West Coast of FL. Link

Quoting TomTaylor:
Wrong.

i'm thinking 'wrong' is the way you read it... i read it as, "warming is the implied reason."
;)

You are right , Minnemike

Nadine

IN Funk

Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Canadian Model takes the blob over the Keys into the BOC and tries to develop it and swings it around as it heads back towards the West Coast of FL. Link

..dang it Caleb, we don't need any more blobage rain in Florida... it will be your fault now if it does. :)

edit; sorry LT, I read it wrong too

kirsty

in Funk

Quoting Neapolitan:
I've seen short lists of possible hottest-place contenders, and Lake Assal often comes in at or near the top. However, Iran's Lut Desert almost always leads the list. Based on what I've read, I've little doubt that it would almost certainly best even Death Valley were a surface station located there (a NASA satellite recorded an unverifiable temperature of 159F there in 2005).

Yes, that's another great choice... Probably could get hotter there as sat estimates have shown. Imagine might have a bit more annual variance in temps with Winter, so wider breadth extremes while Lake Assal varies minimally... LOL, like the title of this - "Lut Desert: The Quietest and Cleanest Place in Iran!"
- so inhospitable it's virtually unspoiled by mankind!
;)

Quoting Invest80Lurk:
I hate global warming debates but i have to say it...so the record was set in 1913 and hasnt been topped since and in 2010, 1180 snowfall records were broken when 49 of the 50 states got snow. im no scientist but i can observe facts quite well ...tell me one more time how the earth is getting hotter?

There are tons of facts to observe here:

--> National Climate Data Center<--

Such as:



and



and

Sanba

In funk

Quoting Minnemike:
i'm thinking 'wrong' is the way you read it... i read it as, "warming is the implied reason."
;)

hm, maybe. Edited the post just in case.

12Z Nogaps..

Quoting N3EG:


I'm not trying to disprove AGW by saying this, but isn't it easier to break a heat record than a cold record anyway? Without factors like a recent volcanic eruption to limit heating, wouldn't an open-ended heat scale allow for more records than a narrowing-toward-absolute-zero cold scale?

Of course, I never took college physics, so I could likely be wrong...

The difference between even the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth -- -128.5F in Antarctica -- and absolute zero -- -459.67F -- is 331 degrees. That leaves a whole lot of slack to take up before temps start any "narrowing".

The fact is, in a stable climate, record highs and record lows would be expected to occur with roughly the same frequency over the long term. That they're not doing so is yet more evidence of a warming climate.

12Z GFS parks a system near the central antilles on the 23rd sept.

Quoting originalLT:
You are right , Minnemike

me bad then

Quoting PlazaRed:

That was August, Ive no doubt that the situation has taken a turn a bit more downhill form the ice point of view since then, as its now about the mid September max low ice cover point.
It will be interesting to see at what date the ice starts to recover this year?

Good question. CT sea ice area reached a new low again today; there's now 663,000 square kilometers less ice area than there was on this date last year, and 710,000 km2 less than on this date in 2007. (The previous record set just last year has been bested by more than 640,000 km2. So far.)

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KRISTY...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH KRISTY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN


wow... look at the epac... just found out

12z Euro..Ive seen this system on several model runs that is supposed to develop in the GOM and merge with a trough/front and head towards the east coast..

120 hours

Quoting TomTaylor:
Wrong.

I think I know what he meant, Tom. He is, I believe, saying that the ice would not be disappearing if the climate was staying the same or getting cooler. The loss of sea ice is due to warmer conditions and not stagnant or cooling conditions. Am I correct, originalLT?

Houston is on pace for it's warmest year. Kind of hard to believe after last year but as of now Houston's avg temperature is 0.4 degrees higher than this mark last year.




The national avg temp is blowing 1998 away

Quoting DocNDswamp:
Hmmmmm....

"Most seriously, the temperature was measured in a paved courtyard over a black, asphalt-like material"

Ah ha, see Watts was right about the poor siting issues!
;)

Now, if Africa wants to attempt getting the world record all-time hottest temperature back, I'd suggest they have a more than excellent chance if set up an official observation station at this location - on the salt flats of Lake Assal, Djibouti... This is one of the most hellish places on earth, already situated in the extremely hot, humid Red Sea region, it's surrounded by desert, lying within the Afar depression - it's the lowest elevation in all Africa at over 500 ft below sea level (similar to Death Valley)... PLUS there's plenty of geothermal activity nearby adding to the misery index with heat from above and below... From my copy of May 1990 National Geographic feature on Africa's Great Rift Valley, page 6 illustration states - "Scorching sun casts long shadows as camels cross the salt flats of Lake Assal, Djibouti, one of the lowest places on earth at 156 meters (512 feet) below sea level. It's also one of the hottest -- summer temperatures reach 57C (135F)." ... The Wiki article also links to BBC correspondent's report, stating "At Lake Assal, in the centre of the country, the summer temperature here routinely reaches 55C (131F)...

This would be my candidate for setting any all-time NEW world heat record, if had a weather station to record it...

Sounds like an awful place to live, but it's extremely close proximity to the ocean (Red Sea) makes me doubt it would ever reach world record temperatures.

156 catastropheadjuster: So does it look like the door shut for the Atlantic Hurricane Season? It seems kinda of quite in here for a few days know. Is the reason why the season is just about over so early because of El Nino?

I'm not sure it even makes sense to talk of ElNino / Neutral / LaNina HurricanSeasons when the effects of ElNino/etc are cause by the temperature differential between the Atlantic and the Pacific.
ElNino / Neutral / LaNina themselves refer only to temperature differences internally within the Pacific. And since the Atlantic is getting warmer...

18z Best Track for Nadine stays at 60kts.

AL, 14, 2012091318, , BEST, 0, 233N, 526W, 60, 990, TS

You are correct Post # 235.

yay rain! but it is getting ridiculous.

Quoting originalLT:
Looking at Post #212, that Ice isn't disappearing because the Earth 's temp. is staying the same, or getting cooler.

Yeah, it melts because its summer... happens every year... :P

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I think I know what he meant, Tom. He is, I believe, saying that the ice would not be disappearing if the climate was staying the same or getting cooler. The loss of sea ice is due to warmer conditions and not stagnant or cooling conditions. Am I correct, originalLT?

Yeah, his wording threw me off.

Quoting JLPR2:
yay rain! but it is getting ridiculous.

Rain for me also :) Felicidad

Quoting Neapolitan:
The difference between even the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth -- -128.5F in Antarctica -- and absolute zero -- -459.67F -- is 331 degrees. That leaves a whole lot of slack to take up before temps start any "narrowing".

The fact is, in a stable climate, record highs and record lows would be expected to occur with roughly the same frequency over the long term. That they're not doing so is yet more evidence of a warming climate.

Heres an interesting one:-
The freezing point of Carbon Dioxide:-
The freezing temperature for carbon dioxide? In: Physics. Answer: around -109.3 degrees Fahrenheit (-78.5 degrees C).
So the carbon dioxide possible link to global warming would be eliminated if the temps were down to below -109.3/F
All our and the world problems would be solved then as we would all perish and the CO2 would become dry ice.
Up until that condition is fulfilled, watch this blog for developments.

Quoting JLPR2:
yay rain! but it is getting ridiculous.

PRC031-132000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0329.120913T1800Z-120913T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAROLINA PR-
200 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAROLINA

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 157 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER CAROLINA PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SHARP RISES ON AREAS STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1844 6598 1843 6593 1841 6592 1839 6593
1838 6592 1832 6591 1833 6596 1839 6600
1840 6599 1842 6603 1845 6604 1846 6599

$$

ER

Quoting TomTaylor:
me bad then

just trying to cut-off any arguments before they start.. i mean, the mistaken ones at least :P
let the other arguments continue!

Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Houston is on pace for it's warmest year. Kind of hard to believe after last year but as of now Houston's avg temperature is 0.4 degrees higher than this mark last year.




The national avg temp is blowing 1998 away

I think we had a longer and colder winter from 2010-2011 than we did from the winter of 2011-2012. Last summer was hot, but the previous winter was more extended and colder than usual. RitaEvac may have some knowledge of this. .... Blast KOG and those darn fans of his!

Quoting Neapolitan:
The difference between even the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth -- -128.5F in Antarctica -- and absolute zero -- -459.67F -- is 331 degrees. That leaves a whole lot of slack to take up before temps start any "narrowing".

The fact is, in a stable climate, record highs and record lows would be expected to occur with roughly the same frequency over the long term. That they're not doing so is yet more evidence of a warming climate.

Besides Nea, it's not really how hot or how cold it is going to get for man to record, but at what temperatures does man cease to exist? That is the real question in all of this.

This is such a Cat 5:



All 7.5's on T numbers.

Also San Juan has gotten a lot of rain this afternoon. In my area at Santurce,it has been raining hard with plenty of thunder for more than an hour.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1238 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012

PRC127-131930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0327.120913T1638Z-120913T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN PR-
1238 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 1235 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER RIO PIEDRAS WITH MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. UP TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS
WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME PORTIONS
OF ROUTE 3 IN RIO PIEDRAS MAY ALSO FLOOD.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6603 1842 6602 1841 6600 1840 6599
1838 6600 1838 6603 1844 6604

$$

ROS