The new hottest place on Earth: Death Valley, California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2012

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As any weather aficionado can avow, Earth's most iconic weather record has long been the legendary all-time hottest temperature of 58°C (136.4°F) measured 90 years ago today at El Azizia, Libya on September 13, 1922. One hundred thirty six degrees! It's difficult to comprehend that heat like that could exist on our planet. For 90 years, no place on Earth has come close to beating the unbelievable 136 degree reading from Al Azizia, and for good reason--the record is simply not believable. But Earth's mightiest weather record has been officially cast down. Today, the official arbiter of Earth's weather records, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), announced that the all-time heat record held for exactly 90 years by El Azizia in Libya "is invalid because of an error in recording the temperature." The WMO committee found five major problems with the measurement. Most seriously, the temperature was measured in a paved courtyard over a black, asphalt-like material by a new and inexperienced observer, not trained in the use of an unsuitable replacement instrument that could be easily misread. The observer improperly recorded the observation, which was consequently in error by about 7°C (12.6°F.) The new official highest hottest place on the planet is now Death Valley, California. A remarkable high temperature of 56.7°C (134°F) was measured there on 10 July 1913, at Greenland Ranch.


Figure 1. The trading post at Al Azizia, Libya in 1923. The photo was taken from the Italian military fort located on a small hill just south of the trading post. It was at this fort that the temperature of 58°C (136.4°F) was observed on Sept. 13, 1922 (used with permission from the family of Gen. Enrico Pezzi).

The story behind the overturning of Earth's most hallowed weather record
Today's announcement is the culmination of a 3-year research effort begun by wunderground weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. His blog post today, World Heat Record Overturned--A Personal Account, provides a fascinating detective story on how the record came to be cast down--and how the Libyan revolution of 2012 almost prevented this from happening.


Figure 2. The new official hottest place on the planet: Death Valley, California. Wide open spaces, infinite views, intensely salty water, mind-boggling heat. What's not to love about this place? Image credit: Wunderphotographer SonomaCountyRAF.

Dead Heat: The Video
Don't miss the 25-minute wunderground video, Dead Heat, a detective story on how the El Azizia record was overturned.

Atlantic tropical update
Tropical Storm Nadine is recurving to the northwest and north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. However, Nadine may eventually threaten the Azores Islands or Newfoundland; the models are divided on how the steering currents will evolve next week, and we cannot be sure which way Nadine will go during the middle of next week.

The models predict that a trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday, but this low will likely form too far to the north to become a tropical storm. The GFS model has been predicting a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa may develop next week, but has not been consistent with the timing or location of the development.

In the Western Pacific, Super Typhoon Sanba is an impressive top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, and is headed north-northwest towards a possible landfall in Korea early next week.

Given the importance of the new world record all-time high temperature, I'll leave this post up until Saturday afternoon, when I'll post an update on the tropics.

Jeff Masters

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Something going on under there?


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For anyone interested, here's a link to the preliminarily-accepted version of the peer-reviewed American Meteorological Society paper detailing the reasons for de-certifying the Libyan record. Note that WU's Christopher Burt is listed as third author. (way to go, Chris!)

World Meteorological Organization Assessment of the Purported World Record 58ºC Temperature Extreme at El Azizia, Libya (13 September 1922)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Link

Similar path to Typhoon Rusa (see link) of 10 years ago which killed about 250. Sanba looks to be even stronger and more annular.

Jeju is a heavily-populated island - 500,000 people in only 1800 square kilometers.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1046 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2012

FLC011-131730-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0078.120913T1446Z-120913T1730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
1046 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SUNRISE...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1037 AM EDT...REGIONAL RAINFALL GAGES AND RADAR ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT TWO INCHES...OR JUST ABOVE...OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IN THE VICINITY OF SAWGRASS MILLS AND SURROUNDING
COMMUNITIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AFFECTING THIS AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISED AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS,
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS
AND DITCHES.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS
OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. RUNOFF MAY ALSO ELEVATE WATER LEVELS IN
CANALS AND DITCHES.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42265
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Geometry, in fact. Just finished a test.
ugh i hate tests. just had an algebra one a few days ago. geometry? i pity you.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:
I'm off for now.
You all have a great rest of the day!
Tracking the tropics is fun.
I'll leave you with a visible image of Super Typhoon Sanba:


P.S. Hmm... I wonder where TA13 is. Probably in school, I guess.

Geometry, in fact. Just finished a test.
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Quoting CloudGatherer:
And, um, guys? It's gone annular. No, for real:
WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED
BY A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO BANDING OUTSIDE OF THIS
RING, CONSISTENT WITH AN ANNULAR TYPHOON.
A 130903Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS BY SHOWING A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM
WITH AN EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND SOME DISPLACED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE
SYSTEM. FURTHER UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM.
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS FROM KNES, RJTD AND PGTW,
RESPECTIVELY. STY 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT HAS BECOME
ANNULAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AS STY 17W STEERS NORTH.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Looks like she is about to return to her North-northwest track. Storm looks annular.


I called that this morning! Haha where's my COOKIE!
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Typhoon Sanba has moistened its CDO considerably over the last 3 hours. Just an amazing storm, one that could be become catastrophic for those unfortunate to be in it's path. Anyone have spaghetti models on this system. I noticed they have shifted its track to the east from previous forecast.



Click pic for animation.
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And, um, guys? It's gone annular. No, for real:
WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED
BY A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO BANDING OUTSIDE OF THIS
RING, CONSISTENT WITH AN ANNULAR TYPHOON.
A 130903Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS BY SHOWING A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM
WITH AN EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND SOME DISPLACED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE
SYSTEM. FURTHER UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM.
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS FROM KNES, RJTD AND PGTW,
RESPECTIVELY. STY 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT HAS BECOME
ANNULAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AS STY 17W STEERS NORTH.
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Quoting 12george1:
Just curious, has a tropical cyclone ever struck Russia while tropical?
dont know... but i doubt it.
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This, by the way, is the latest satellite fix from the JTWC:
TPPN10 PGTW 131508

A. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA)

B. 13/1432Z

C. 16.7N

D. 129.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURR BY CMG YIELDED A
7.5 DT. MET AND PT INDICATE 7.0. DBO DT DUE TO CONSISTANT 7.5
DT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. 24 HOUR CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.


I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0920Z 15.9N 129.6E WIND
13/1254Z 16.4N 129.7E MMHS


Translated into plain English, they're registering a storm with a Dvorak T# of 7.5 - which in the Northwest Pacific would ordinarily translate to 155 knots, and a central pressure of 879MB. The intensification of the storm has been so rapid that two of the Dvorak instruments, which won't allow for sufficiently rapid change, are lagging behind and spitting out estimates of 7.0. The more sensitive estimator has registered at 7.5 for the past six hours, and that's what the forecasters have chosen to use.
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Is this the storm that won't quit?? More remnants of Isaac??
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Just curious, has a tropical cyclone ever struck Russia while tropical?
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Quoting bappit:

All praise be to Chris Burt for correcting the record book, but it is not really a new record.
No, it's not. But the El Azizia "record" stood for exactly 90 years, and now, thanks to the work of Chris and others, the record has returned to Death Valley where it rightly belongs.

The story behind the story is pretty remarkable, with its tie-ins to Muammar Gaddafi and the Arab Spring uprisings and all. I realize de-certifying the Libyan "record" may seem like a minor thing to some, but many people spent many hours gathering, researching, analysing, arguing, and coming to a decision. I think that's pretty remarkable, too.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Another record day on this blog!!!!
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Quoting JeffMasters:


Hi, I do tend to ignore the WPac more than I should--I did add a mention of Sanba just now; thanks for the recommendation. I have meetings all morning Friday in NYC then hop on a plane, so will be unable to do a proper blog update on Friday, which is the main reason I am leaving up the current post an extra day.

Jeff Masters
Thanks very much for your response, for the update, and for the explanation. (I was venting into the void; the response was a pleasant surprise.) Like everyone else in the forum, I appreciate your insights and rely on your expertise - and I certainly understand that the dictates of your schedule set the timetable of your posts.

Have a pleasantly uneventful flight; we'll be looking forward to hearing more, when you have time to check in again.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM AST THU SEP 13 2012

BASED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...NADINE HAS NOT
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER...BUT NADINE HAS YET TO DISPLAY ANY SIGN OF EYE FORMATION ON
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
ASYMMETRIC...WITH MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTED EMANATING NORTHWARD FROM THE STORM...
SUGGESTING SOME INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT.




That's the part I don't get. This is the 10:45am SAB reading:
13/1145 UTC 21.9N 51.9W T4.0/4.0 NADINE

That's a hurricane, folks. CIMSS also registers a 65kt, T4.0 storm on its CI. I'm willing to buy that, at some point, TAFB put out a 3.5 - but they're splitting hairs here. That might be because if Nadine is (barely) a hurricane at present, and the dry air intrusion is expected to take it back down by the next advisory, they don't want to upgrade only to immediately downgrade. But I don't understand how they can say that the SAB reading has held constant, when it hasn't.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Doc, it's your blog, write what you want. I hate it when people come on here and try to dictate what should be on here as well as when. Your different topics not only keep us entertained and enlightened, but saves a lot of us from the fights that develop over disagreements. Many a time you have posted a new topic in the knick of time so to speak, before the arguments came to blows. Directing this blog is tatamount to herding cats. Have a good day and a great trip to NYC.


Totally agree. And on a sidenote I have two rescue cats. I let the wife round them up for annual checkups at the vet :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
True (well, 99 years). But it is the new all-time world record (as reflected on the WMO's weather extremes page a few moments ago:

DV

WU's Chris Burt deserves a tone of credit for this; if not for him, the false Libyan "record" may have stood for another nine decades...

All praise be to Chris Burt for correcting the record book, but it is not really a new record.
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Quoting katrinaeyewall:
This blog is linked from the tropical weather page of wunderground, so I think most people expect it to be about tropical weather more times than not.
True--though even on that page it's not listed among the four under 'Tropical Blogs'. And it's also linked from the home page of WU, from the 'Blogs' page, and even at times from the 'Climate Change Blogs' page. So those expectations may be misplaced. Just saying...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
I'm off for now.
You all have a great rest of the day!
Tracking the tropics is fun.
I'll leave you with a visible image of Super Typhoon Sanba:


P.S. Hmm... I wonder where TA13 is. Probably in school, I guess.
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Quoting icmoore:
Gulf of Mexico Radar link. There is a lot of weather coming across S FL and the Keys and into the Gulf.

Link
Yes, it has been dark as dusk here in Key West with thunder in the distance. I am at the west end of Key West.
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This blog is linked from the tropical weather page of wunderground, so I think most people expect it to be about tropical weather more times than not.

That being said, it is Dr. Masters blog, and he can bring up whatever he likes. That does not mean that tropical weather enthusiests will continue to come on the blog as often if it becomes all about GW. There are plenty of GW blogs around for all of that conversation.

Death Valley has always been hot, I went through there 20-30 years ago and we camped in a pop-up trailer just across the California line in Arizona and it was like 117 degrees. It cooled all the way down to 98 overnight. Not easy to get much sleep under those conditions.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thank You Doc and Good Morning Blog. Looks like a dangerous situation setting up for people on the southern chain of islands in Japan as Sanba is now a Super Typhoon.

Eye is symmetric in shape:



Expected to become a Category 5 Hurricane:


poor people out there in them little islands. they gonna get swamped.
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68. 7544
morning all looks like the bahamma blob from yesterday became the fl blob today look at the long line to the east of fla all moving west looks like a washout for so fl today as it gets into gulf could it develope there and notice the front coming down
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Doesnt look like nadine will make landfall anywere. and its kinda quiet out there in the Atlantic right now.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thank You Doc and Good Morning Blog. Looks like a dangerous situation setting up for people on the southern chain of islands in Japan as Sanba is now a Super Typhoon.

Eye is symmetric in shape:



Expected to become a Category 5 Hurricane:




And I remember when I visited Jeju Island and the locals were telling me that the strongest storms they get are tropical storms... It seems that they will have to change this.
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Kristy at 45kts.


TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012


THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...IT COULD HAVE DETERIORATED A LITTLE
BIT...AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE...KRISTY IS HEADING
TOWARD COOL WATERS AND APPROACHING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THIS
BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE...AND KRISTY
WILL PROBABLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE MOST OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...AGREE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST SOLUTION. IN FACT...THIS PATH IS VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 18.9N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.2N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z 26.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14913

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM AST THU SEP 13 2012

BASED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...NADINE HAS NOT
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THERE IS
A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER...BUT NADINE HAS YET TO DISPLAY ANY SIGN OF EYE FORMATION ON
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
ASYMMETRIC...WITH MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTED EMANATING NORTHWARD FROM THE STORM...
SUGGESTING SOME INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT THAT EASY TO LOCATE...MOST RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/14. THE STEERING
SCENARIO AND TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS APPEAR TO BE
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE...AND THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. LATER
ON...THE TRACK MODELS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT...WITH A SPREAD OF OVER
600 N MI BY DAY 5. THE GFDL IS THE LEFT-MOST OF THE MODEL
SUITE...AND IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME DURING DAYS 3-5 SEEMS TO BE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFDL. THIS IS
ALSO ROUGHLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES.

NADINE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO ITS WEST. ANALYSIS OF THE GFS MODEL FIELDS
REVEALS THE SHEAR IS MOST PROMINENT IN THE MID LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG BY 36
HOURS AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO
BECOME A HURRICANE...SOME OF THE BETTER-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SUCH AS
SHIPS SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR NADINE TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING PREDICTED AS SHEAR INCREASES BEYOND 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 22.6N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 24.2N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 26.4N 54.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 28.6N 53.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 30.1N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 31.8N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 32.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE/PASCH

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14913
Tropical Storm NADINE
...NADINE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13
Location: 22.6°N 52.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
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134 degrees.... that is just too hot. glad Im in Florida where it is only 83.9 degrees!
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Thank You Doc and Good Morning Blog. Looks like a dangerous situation setting up for people on the southern chain of islands in Japan as Sanba is now a Super Typhoon.

Eye is symmetric in shape:



Expected to become a Category 5 Hurricane:


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Quoting washingtonian115:
What have I told you people?.In the western hemisphere people just or won't give a damn about a typhoon in the Pacific because it has nothing to do with them(or they feel that way).So why is it a surprise that they have "not given any attention" to what's been going on?.Don't believe me just ask any random person out on the streets if they know about a typhoon named Sanba.They'll look at you like you've gone mad.It wasn't mention on the major news network and wasn't even mentioned in my news paper.Now I'm out have a nice day.

Isn't that kind of rude for us Eastern Hemisphere people? Here in South Korea, storms which make landfall in the U.S. are on the news every time.

In my opinion, if one has interest in the tropics, he/she should be interested in not only Atlantic hurricanes, but also worldwide tropical cyclones. Just because the majority of the people are from the Western Hemisphere, it doesn't mean there are no people from the Eastern Hemisphere, and you don't have to care about them. You should respect the minority.

You can completely ignore this comment if you want, I'm just telling you my thoughts.
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All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 12Sept12pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
4FL3-DaytonaBeach
72GA-ShellmanBluff :: HHH-HiltonHead :: KSUT-CapeFear :: W95-Ocracoke :: BDA-Bermuda

The easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Nadine's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Nadine's 2 most recent positions its closest approach (within 18miles or 29kilometres) to an inhabited coastline.
12Sept06am: TS.Nadine had been headed for passage over PortOrange (right,DABblob)
12Sept12pm: TS.Nadine had been headed for passage over St.CatherinesSound (top,72GAblob)
12Sept06pm: TS.Nadine had been headed for passage over KureBeach (right,KSUTblob)
13Sept12am: TS.Nadine had been headed for passage over HiltonHead (bottom,HHHblob)
13Sept06am: TS.Nadine was heading for passage over Ocracoke (bottom,W95blob)
13Sept12pm: TS.Nadine was heading for passage over Bermuda

Copy&paste 17.5n44.6w-18.1n45.9w, dab, 17.5n44.6w-29.128n80.957w, 18.1n45.9w-18.7n47.0w, 72ga, 18.1n45.9w-31.72n81.139w, 18.7n47.0w-19.5n48.2w, ksut, 18.7n47.0w-33.999n77.906w, 19.5n48.2w-20.2n49.5w, hhh, 19.5n48.2w-32.141n80.75w, 20.2n49.5w-21.0n50.6w, w95, 20.2n49.5w-35.065n76.01w, 21.0n50.6w-22.0n51.7w, bda, 21.0n50.6w-32.248n64.806w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger tree mapping and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The Death Valley temperature story is racing around the news world this morning--Washington Post, CBS News, The Guardian, Toronto Star, USA Today, Times of India, etc.--so it's a pretty big deal for people in general. And as a bonus WU, and Christopher Burt in particular--are being given all sorts of thanks and credit for spearheading the investigation. Is there anyone who doesn't think that'll help keep this site alive?

I think the lack of interest in the revised record expressed by some (note: not all) here this morning reflects a selfish and immature sense of entitlement: if the forum doesn't focus on only that which they would like it to be focused, they become petulant and even whiny, and begin clogging the comments section with insults and baseless accusations. The truth is--and this has been demonstrated dozens of times here--Dr. Masters can write 99 consecutive blog entries on tropical weather, but the second he posts that hundredth article on a hugely important though non-tropical subject, the same small pack of people crawl out of the shadows and begin taking potshots at him in his own forum, complaining repeatedly that he "never" talks about the tropics.

It's quite maddening, actually. Some of you remind me of my ex in-laws. Remind me not to spend the holidays with you. ;-)I would imagine that's because most who support the science behind AGW are reasonable and astute enough to realize that this is Dr. Masters' blog, so he can write about that which he chooses. That's just a guess, though...


You talking bout the same people who call people ignorant and stupid when they disagree with them..okay..
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Nadine 9:58 GMT
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Nadine is looking better
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Jupiter Beach
Looks like fun. Wish I was doing that right now....
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The Death Valley temperature story is racing around the news world this morning--Washington Post, CBS News, The Guardian, Toronto Star, USA Today, Times of India, etc.--so it's a pretty big deal for people in general. And as a bonus, WU--and Christopher Burt in particular--are being given all sorts of thanks and credit for spearheading the investigation. Is there anyone who doesn't think that'll help keep this site alive?

I think the lack of interest in the revised record expressed by some (note: not all) here this morning reflects a selfish and immature sense of entitlement: if the forum doesn't focus on only that which they would like it to be focused, they become petulant and even whiny, and begin clogging the comments section with insults and baseless accusations. The truth is--and this has been demonstrated dozens of times here--Dr. Masters can write 99 consecutive blog entries on tropical weather, but the second he posts that hundredth article on a hugely important though non-tropical subject, the same small pack of people crawl out of the shadows and begin taking potshots at him in his own forum, complaining repeatedly that he "never" talks about the tropics.

It's quite maddening, actually. Some of you remind me of my ex in-laws. Remind me not to spend the holidays with you. ;-)
Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder why no one ever complains about the lack of GW or climate change topic when the blog topic is only about tropical weather?
I would imagine that's because most who support the science behind AGW are reasonable and astute enough to realize that this is Dr. Masters' blog, so he can write about that which he chooses. That's just a guess, though...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Gulf of Mexico Radar link. There is a lot of weather coming across S FL and the Keys and into the Gulf.

Link
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


I guess that depends on whether or not one believes in it and if humans are playing a role or not. Take a poll on that of all American's and get back to me on the results.


You can take all of the opinion polls that you desire to do. None of the polls, or all polls combined, will not dictate what the Laws of Physics, the Laws of Thermodynamics and Chemistry will be. We simply cannot vote on what tomorrow's weather or the next century's climate will be. If we are lucky, we may get our wish. But, it is only a wish.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder why no one ever complains about the lack of GW or climate change topic when the blog topic is only about tropical weather??..puts thing in perspective in what people really come to this blog for..
Prepare to get bashed :).
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Quoting ncstorm:
I wonder why no one ever complains about the lack of GW or climate change topic when the blog topic is only about tropical weather??..puts thing in perspective in what people really come to this blog for..


The 9 comments in the climate change blog published a day and a half ago says it all .....
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Jupiter Beach
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Quoting captainktainer:


Thanks for explaining, Doctor Masters. I have to admit that the short shrift the Pacific gets has been something that has bugged me for the many years I've been reading and lurking. I doubt you have the time or interest, but I'd be interested in hearing your or others' thoughts about whether this has anything to do with the fact that tropical systems in the Pacific are monitored by a fragmented and sometimes discordant group of national weather bureaus, or if it's due to a general bias toward English-speaking information outlets, or something else.


IMO, perhaps the main reason that Sanba is getting so much attention is that there is,seemingly,little else happening "real time" that is worthy of note.
It was not all that many days ago, when systems were threatening Conus and, any mention of existing WPAC Storms (that also threatened land masses)was almost ridiculed by some as not important - apparently, because they posed no threat to USA.
Personally, - yes - I do pay more attention to Storms that may have an impact on NE/NW Caribbean; however,I also maintain an interest in all other storms.
As an aside, one of the best "local" weather sites I have used is the Hong Kong Weather Observatory.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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