Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTLSNK:


He's still around, he drops by every now and then.


Thanks... I see he updates and comments in his blog... I knew I was missing something and finally figured out what it was.

Have a good night everyone.
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Quoting MTWX:


Suppose to stay pretty mild here... Highs in the mid 80's with lows in the lower 60's... Great for turning off the AC and opening up the windows at night!

Once the big trough they are forecasting to come through, they are only forecastion us to get into the mid 70's for highs the couple of days following!!


Upper 80's forecasted here in west central Louisiana, with good chances of rain. But the humidity will keep me from opening windows. :(

But Fall is coming, I just need to be patient. *S*
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523. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Same thing here. Came home and it was thundering, heavy dark clouds covering the sky, wind picking up. I went inside to check the radar, knowing I wouldn't have to water the garden and then watched the radar as it broke up and rained all around us, but not here.


I get alot more thunder here than I do rain! It likes to just sit there and tease me on the other side of the border in Alabama.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1394
522. MTWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Nah, just a good night to lurk a bit. We're heading back into the high temps again, but I really enjoyed the cooler temps while they lasted.


Suppose to stay pretty mild here... Highs in the mid 80's with lows in the lower 60's... Great for turning off the AC and opening up the windows at night!

Once the big trough they are forecasting comes through, they are only forecasting us to get into the mid 70's for highs the couple of days following!!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1394
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Quoting txjac:


Wow, I hope so ...watched it APPEAR to be coming my way today and then fade out or go around me ...


Same thing here. Came home and it was thundering, heavy dark clouds covering the sky, wind picking up. I went inside to check the radar, knowing I wouldn't have to water the garden and then watched the radar as it broke up and rained all around us, but not here.
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The Nadine Song:

Nadine, Nadine, You treated us so mean.
Nadine, Nadine, You treated us so mean.
You were too fast to live,
You were too young to die,
Bye-Bye.
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516. txjac
Quoting jeffs713:

Be careful what you wish for...

Also... look at the NWS discussion. Happiness for those wanting rain is contained within.


Wow, I hope so ...watched it APPEAR to be coming my way today and then fade out or go around me ...
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I say stronger than 105mph, probably a cat3.


Sanba is just simply amazing and Nadine is getting there. I expect a hurricane a 5am and a cat2 100mph peak for Nadine.


Soon enough

This storm has definitely Taken its sweet time
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Quoting Dakster:
Whatever happened to Orcasystems? I kind of expected him to come back and post.


He's still around, he drops by every now and then.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sanba is up to 105 mph.


I say stronger than 105mph, probably a cat3.

Quoting weatherh98:
Stooping low this evening with race arguments...

Can't believe dat


Sanba is just... WOW



And Nadine is nearing hurricane status!



Lotta heat energy is being taken out of the north central atlantic and not much is getting sucked away from the north Caribbean.

Season should begin to focus back that way after the last few cv storms.


Sanba is just simply amazing and Nadine is getting there. I expect a hurricane a 5am and a cat2 100mph peak for Nadine.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
512. MTWX
Quoting washingtonian115:
Something that wasn't meant to be seen on the blog.
Quoting auburn:


Naa just a couple of trouble making trolls..why anyone would troll a weather blog I just dont understand..


Ahh... OK.

I've been in and out tonight, the conspiracy theory arguments earlier were pretty entertaining though.

I miss snow too, for any of you who are still on that subject...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1394
Quoting txjac:
Wow, what does Houston have to do to get some meaningful rain ...Largo, please send some our way ...Florida has had enough!

I want/need rain/thunder/lightening!

Be careful what you wish for...

Also... look at the NWS discussion. Happiness for those wanting rain is contained within.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:


I must have missed something...


Nah, just a good night to lurk a bit. We're heading back into the high temps again, but I really enjoyed the cooler temps while they lasted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whatever happened to Orcasystems? I kind of expected him to come back and post.
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508. txjac
Wow, what does Houston have to do to get some meaningful rain ...Largo, please send some our way ...Florida has had enough!

I want/need rain/thunder/lightening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kshipre1:
Anyone know when the high pressure in the atlantic is supposed to get stronger and go further westward?


The Bermuda high is on a weakening trend and appears to even disappear in about 10 days. Time to focus on them homegrowns after Oscar!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like a 120mph storm.
It looks better than what Irene ever was.
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505. auburn (Mod)
Quoting MTWX:


I must have missed something...


Naa just a couple of trouble making trolls..why anyone would troll a weather blog I just dont understand..
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Quoting MTWX:


I must have missed something...
Something that wasn't meant to be seen on the blog.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19263
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just took the pup for a walk. Nice and breezy in Lake Worth. Thank you near 0 %.


Heavy rain in Fort Lauderdale, moving your way.
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502. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY SANBA 1216 (1216) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC
00HR 14.9N 129.9E 960HPA 40M/S
30KTS 280KM
50KTS 90KM
P12HR NNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 17.8N 128.8E 945HPA 48M/S
P+48HR 21.2N 127.6E 935HPA 52M/S (105 knots)
P+72HR 24.9N 126.1E 935HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 28.7N 124.8E 945HPA 48M/S
P+120HR 35.4N 124.6E 950HPA 42M/S=

2 minute sustained winds average prediction from China
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501. MTWX
Quoting auburn:


Well they didnt seem to last long..looks like admin is on the case tonight!


I must have missed something...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1394
500. auburn (Mod)
Quoting washingtonian115:
When trolls come on to attack you can't do nothing but shake your head.Who would want to come on and terrorize a weather board?.So instead of giving them the reaction that your angry(which is what they want) just laugh at their ignorance.Then they know they look like the big fool in the end.

472 I tried to give a chance so by.


Well they didnt seem to last long..looks like admin is on the case tonight!
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Just took the pup for a walk. Nice and breezy in Lake Worth. Thank you near 0 %.
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Quoting allancalderini:
I agree more like a cat 4.
Looks like a 120mph storm.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19263
People from the Lesser Antilles to Jamaica to the Yucatan Peninsula to northern Mexico won't forget this storm either.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34218
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's not a 105mph T.C...
I agree more like a cat 4.
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495. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The always conservative JMA is up to 80kts.

TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 13 September 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°50'(14.8°)
E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E129°05'(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°50'(20.8°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00'(25.0°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL700km(375NM)



105 knots is "Very Intense" category or what I consider a category five typhoon on their measuring speed scale
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Quoting CloudGatherer:
Here's CIMSS on Sanba:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 15:03:01 N Lon : 129:40:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 968.0mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


Man, that is one beautiful storm:
Amazing only that word can describe it.
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That's not a 105mph T.C...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19263
Is the blog messed up for anyone else? I can't see lines or dividers, and the area for typing posts is super small.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 445
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sanba is up to 105 mph.




Really cool looking storm
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490. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
9:00 AM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (960 hPa) located at 14.8N 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.5N 129.1E - 90 (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.8N 128.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 25.0N 126.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Two more.





It's always interesting to see some of this coverage as I didn't have electric at the time to be able to watch it.
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Sanba is up to 105 mph.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34218
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
479- JMA uses 10 minute sustained winds, so 80kts probably isn't too far off. JTWC on the other hand uses 1 minute sustained winds... they have it at 75kts as of their latest advisory, they'll put a new one out by 11PM.
TXPQ24 KNES 122121
TCSWNP

A. 17W (SANBA)

B. 12/2032Z

C. 14.6N

D. 129.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...HOURLY DT ESTIMATES OF 17W FOR PAST SIX HRS YIELDS AN AVERAGE DT OF 5.6. FOR THIS REASON DVORAK CONTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO ONLY 1.5 IN 12 HRS HAVE BEEN BROKEN. LG EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. MET = 5.0. PT = 5.5. FT IS BASED ON RI.
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Stooping low this evening with race arguments...

Can't believe dat


Sanba is just... WOW



And Nadine is nearing hurricane status!



Lotta heat energy is being taken out of the north central atlantic and not much is getting sucked away from the north Caribbean.

Season should begin to focus back that way after the last few cv storms.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Two more.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34218
484. BtnTx
Quoting washingtonian115:
When trolls come on to attack you can't do nothing but shake your head.Who would want to come on and terrorize a weather board?.So instead of giving them the reaction that your angry(which is what they want) just laugh at their ignorance.Then they know they look like the big fool in the end.
I agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
479- JMA uses 10 minute sustained winds, so 80kts probably isn't too far off. JTWC on the other hand uses 1 minute sustained winds... they have it at 75kts as of their latest advisory, they'll put a new one out by 11PM.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Entertainment!.

Now it's boring again.

Well that was interesting, but also super mean to say what he/she said.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
Quoting Thing342:

Interesting, as we've been relatively troll-free for the past few weeks.

Also, the board is completely messed up for me.
When trolls come on to attack you can't do nothing but shake your head.Who would want to come on and terrorize a weather board?.So instead of giving them the reaction that your angry(which is what they want) just laugh at their ignorance.Then they know they look like the big fool in the end.

472 I tried to give a chance so by.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19263
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The always conservative JMA is up to 80kts.

TY 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 13 September 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°50'(14.8°)
E129°50'(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E129°05'(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°50'(20.8°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)


Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°00'(25.0°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL700km(375NM)

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15668
Here's CIMSS on Sanba:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 15:03:01 N Lon : 129:40:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 968.0mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


Man, that is one beautiful storm:
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Four years ago.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34218
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There's some good ones on here tonight. As Wash said, entertainment!

Interesting, as we've been relatively troll-free for the past few weeks.

Also, the board is completely messed up for me.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 445

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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