Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



and again:



Followed by a deep fantasy land trough:
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No "Kristy" yet.

EP, 11, 2012091218, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1063W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NE USA:



and again:
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Euro 120 hrs.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
NE USA:
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Quoting LargoFl:
Lotta colors
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Quoting jeffs713:

No run-off mitigation because Las Vegas is in a DESERT. As in they get 4.5" in an average YEAR. There isn't much need for runoff mitigation when there rarely is runoff to speak of...
I'd venture to say that it's not quite true that it's not needed entirely. Flash flooding due to low amounts of rain can be a killer in desert regions due to the flat hard ground and because people just don't expect such little rain to do any damage, but it's not unheard of.

The scale of runoff / flood mitigation in a place like Las Vegas doesn't need to be like New Orleans or in Metro Atlanta but there should be something to mitigate the asphalt at least. And even if it's not for flooding runoff it could be done for catchment and reuse of the water dumped.

But in my opinion, the engineering and civil planning problems of Las Vegas go way beyond a bit of flooding. ;)
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Nadine has not strengthened any since the previous advisory according to SAB.

12/1745 UTC 19.6N 48.1W T3.5/3.5 NADINE -- Atlantic
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


I absolutely hate when that happens! And then when you put down the fertilizer and you're not supposed to apply moisture for at least 24 hours, the same thing happens. Go figure.
I know! I already hate to mow because our yard is hugh, and I had to take over since my husbands accident. I try to mow every week but this weekend same thing I am almost 2 weeks out!! Can't catch a break, and to think I was begging for rain months ago.
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Quoting LargoFl:
No I wanted to mow after work today. It was only a 20% rain chance and the rain is all around!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42090
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Quoting sunlinepr:
What a huge storm exiting Colombia into the Pacific!
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GFS rainfall at 96 hours..................
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Quoting aspectre:
Good to have you back with us, KarenRei. Long time no see.

All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 12Sept12pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
4FL3-Fellsmere :: WKR-Walker'sCay :: []-[] ::

The easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Nadine's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Nadine's 2 most recent positions its closest approach (within 18miles or 29kilometres) to an inhabited coastline.
12Sept12pm: TS.Nadine was heading for passage 10.3miles(16.6kilometres)North of Walker'sCay before heading for passage over IndianRiverShores

Copy&paste 4fl3, wkr, 16.4n42.7w-17.1n43.3w, 17.1n43.3w-17.5n44.6w, 17.5n44.6w-18.3n46.0w, 18.3n46.0w-18.7n47.0w, 18.3n46.0w-27.710n80.373w, 18.3n46.0w-27.411n78.374w, 27.263n78.403w-27.411n78.374w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
Nadine is going out to sea.Why draw a line through Florida to show it distance? It implies that it may go there. How far is it from Duluth? Or Moscow?
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Wyoming wildfire burns 24 square miles
Posted on September 12, 2012
September 12, 2012 – WYOMING -


Firefighters are taking advantage of cooler, more humid weather to dig in around a wildfire burning on Casper Mountain. Crews were focusing Wednesday on building containment lines around the northwest corner of the Sheep Herder Hill Fire, the portion closest to most of the 750 homes threatened by the blaze. The fire has destroyed seven homes on the mountain overlooking Casper since breaking out Sunday. It hasn’t spread much in the last 24 hours and is listed at nearly 25 square miles and 10 percent contained. Investigators will also be in the fire zone looking into how the fire started. Fire spokeswoman Susan Ford said that’s a standard procedure when there aren’t any obvious signs of how a fire started, such as a lightning strike. –KULR 8
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Good analysis. Agree wholeheartedly.
Cmon, one more. Im asking nicely!!!
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looks like some of the drought area's of texas are going to be getting some rain finally.....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42090
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND GULF WATERS
TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH FLOODING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42090
7544..read this..you were right about the blob in the gulf coming thru florida...................
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPACT LOCAL
BEACHES RESULTING IN A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO
OUR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OCEAN SWELLS EMANATING FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONES WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AREA BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF THE ONSHORE WINDS AND LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

PP
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42090
GFS places Nadine, Strong, and quite close into Portugal/Spain.... We'll see...

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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE TIDE
CONDITIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
LIGHTNING STRIKES, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACTS.

FLOODING: SATURATED SOILS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO THE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES: TYPICAL HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 104
DEGREES IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND: WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS FROM 45
TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND FAVORABLE LOW
TIDES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42090
ULL over us, small surf, next week will be hot...



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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1228 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-122000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1228 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2012

.NOW...

WEATHER RADAR WAS DETECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST OSCEOLA
COUNTY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF OF SOUTHERN BREVARD AND INDIAN
RIVER COUNTIES. THE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH YOUR AREA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...
WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING
WATERS OUT TO 20 MILES OF SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS 20 MILES AND BEYOND.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIALLY ROUGH SURF WILL OCCUR
AT THE BEACHES AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP
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Quoting 7544:


bahamma blob looking better there might have to keep one eye on it as it moves wnw maybe ?
yes on the animated screen, both the bahamma's and gulf blobs are growing in size
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96. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:


bahamma blob looking better there might have to keep one eye on it as it moves wnw maybe ?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42090
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42090
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Thanks for the new blog Dr. M.

Nadine is looking very good in RGB. Nice banding and outflow.


Hopefully she will be a pretty storm , the ladies this year sure have been ugly...but I have hopes she will be pretty

Looking rather hot in Funk

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Quoting bappit:

It has gotten dry around Houston ... again. Come on rain!


I need a rain gauge...downpour for about 30 minutes here. Welcome change to hot and dry.
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91. Skyepony (Mod)
NASA's GEOS-5 has the Bahama blob coming right to me here in ECFL...

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88. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 12george1:
Hey guys, I noticed an increase in winds over southern Greenland. Is it related to the remnants of Leslie or just a coincidence?


..Leslie remnants. Her morning ASCAT.

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Nadine looks to have stopped strengthening for the time being. Still expect it to become a hurricane overnight.
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85. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Interesting little feature in the Bahama's which is throwing a lot of showers into south Fla....



thanks will it moving west or
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thanks for the new blog Dr. M.

Nadine is looking very good in RGB. Nice banding and outflow.
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cv over? i think we might have something near the leewards after things settle down. i used the quality motel down the street.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Where and when did Michael hit major status?.........Thanks.

My avatar is of Michael at peak intensity as a major.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Going to need to keep an eye on the western caribbean by the end of the month, this about the 4th run in a row the GFS shows something festering down there.

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Where and when did Michael hit major status?.........Thanks.

More specifically, it was in the central Atlantic on September 6. See this map.
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Quoting RetiredChiefP:


Just walked outside...disregard the "mostly sunny" part of my last post. SW of Humble, and over IAH looks pretty dark and forboding. Lol, my grass sure could use some rain though.

It has gotten dry around Houston ... again. Come on rain!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6157
Hey guys, I noticed an increase in winds over southern Greenland. Is it related to the remnants of Leslie or just a coincidence?
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12z GFS is busy with developing systems from CV origin to Western Caribbean one.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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