Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 36.5N 144.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Quoting wxchaser97:


My Forecast, the track and intensity remains the same for me even though this is 6 hours old:

I like your forecast intensities...just like mine taking it over 100 mph..
I don't understand why the NHC keeps the storm not going past 85 mph???

Quoting etxwx:
Link
Thursday, September 13th, 2012 - MANILA, Philippines
Tropical storm Karen (aka Sanba) strenghtened anew as it moved towards the Philippine Sea, the state weather bureau said Thursday.
Karen was spotted 540 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes packing maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 135 kph. It was forecast to move northwest at 15 kph, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.
Occasional light to moderate rains will be experienced over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol region and Visayas while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy skies with brief rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila will be partly cloudy to cloudy with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms. Moderate to strong winds blowing from the southwest to south and Manila Bay will be moderate to rough.
Small fishing boats and vessels were warned not to venture into the sea and large vessels were alerted against big waves as strong to gale force wind is expected to affect the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

I knew it was still alive and out there somewhere. I can't wait for next year when the name Karen is on the list again.

Quoting wxchaser97:


My Forecast, the track and intensity remains the same for me even though this is 6 hours old:

100 mph seems a lot more reasonable than topping out at 85.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I like your forecast intensities...just like mine taking it over 100 mph..
I don't understand why the NHC keeps the storm not going past 85 mph???

Right now looking at past organization/strengthening trends 85mph in 24 hrs seems likely and getting up to 100mph before shear begins to affect Nadine. It could go higher and I have everything broken down in my blog tomorrow morning at between 7-8am.

Quoting Slamguitar:


100 mph seems a lot more reasonable than topping out at 85.

I actually agree with the NHC 100% through 24hrs, then I strengthen her more and then weaken her instead of faster weakening.

Back from La Place, LA. Quite a bit of damage, but not horrid in that area. The problem there was the lake on one side and the river on the other, plus being in a low-lying area. They had no evac orders and were mostly taken by surprise with fast-rising waters. Most were gotten out by small boats and early on, some dump trucks. Most people in my contact had 1-4 ft of water inside their homes.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY SANBA 1216 (1216) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC
00HR 15.3N 129.7E 950HPA 45M/S (90 knots)
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR NNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 18.2N 128.7E 935HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 21.5N 127.7E 930HPA 55M/S (110 knots)
P+72HR 25.3N 126.0E 935HPA 52M/S

Quoting flsky:
Back from La Place, LA. Quite a bit of damage, but not horrid in that area. The problem there was the lake on one side and the river on the other, plus being in a low-lying area. They had no evac orders and were mostly taken by surprise with fast-rising waters. Most were gotten out by small boats and early on, some dump trucks. Most people in my contact had 1-4 ft of water inside their homes.

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.

oh the molals just keep gettin' better and better for Florida Fall weather!!!

Quoting wxchaser97:

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.

I would blame it on the public, but in this case I honestly think it's more that we lack adequate means to communicate the storm surge/size threat.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.

Isaac's biggest effects
were cause by
its slow forward speed
and lack of direction
which caused a prolonged
somewhat stalled event
the result of which
significant impacts were felt

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Isaac's biggest effects
were cause by
its slow forward speed
and lack of direction
which caused a prolonged
somewhat stalled event
the result of which
significant impacts were felt

Get rid of the drought, open up the avenue for hurricanes. Keep the drought, lose the hurricanes, but also lose valuable agriculture.

Take your pick guys.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I would blame it on the public, but in this case I honestly think it's more that we lack adequate means to communicate the storm surge/size threat.

I really think an improved system needs to be out in place as Isaac is just 1 example. Ike 4 years ago was another similar storm. The surge threat was never really known and people assumed since Isaac was "only a category 1 hurricane" everything would be fine.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Get rid of the drought, open up the avenue for hurricanes. Keep the drought, lose the hurricanes, but also lose valuable agriculture.

Take your pick guys.

For me and my area it is easy to say get rid of drought as that affects us way more than hurricanes. I have to think of the people though and it is a lose-lose situation if you look at it that way.

Fresh Cloudsat of 11E

I have to go to sleep so I can get up for school and write a blog, see you in the morning.

Quoting wxchaser97:

For me and my area it is easy to say get rid of drought as that affects us way more than hurricanes. I have to think of the people though and it is a lose-lose situation if you look at it that way.

Is there ever a silver lining to weather?

Quoting wxchaser97:

I really think an improved system needs to be out in place as Isaac is just 1 example. Ike 4 years ago was another similar storm. The surge threat was never really known and people assumed since Isaac was "only a category 1 hurricane" everything would be fine.

Evacuation orders won't go up if the storm surge threat is not properly conveyed. Water kills, not wind (unless you're Andrew).

I know someone at Walmart who had four feet of water in her home two weeks ago. I haven't talked to her since then (haven't seen her) so I don't know the state of things now. She was really sad though.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON KAREN (SANBA)
11:00 AM PhST September 13 2012
==============================

"KAREN" has intensified into a typhoon while still over the East Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Karen (Sanba) located at 15.1°N 129.6°E or 760 km east of Infanta, Quezon has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
===========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy) within the 550 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon, eastern seabord of Visayas and Mindanao due to strong winds generated by Typhoon "Karen".

"Karen" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over the western section of Visayas and of Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
12:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (945 hPa) located at 15.3N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.9N 129.1E - 90 (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.8N 128.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 25.0N 126.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa

Salton Sea was confirmed as the source for the stench that traveled all the way to LA on Monday. Someone posted it here, radar & everything, spot on as to the cause for stench travel.. It was that storm.

Well 10N, 37W is getting a few more clouds. Might be interesting in a day or two. I'm feeling the return of the Kmankid.

Here we go!  the Caribbean need to watch out.

Interesting little feature around 10.5N/37W. Looks like it is slowly gaining a little bit of convection. I wonder if since this is at such a low latitude, it could avoid being scooped up by the troughiness along the east coast and sneak its way into the Caribbean Sea? Would be interesting if this became cute little Oscar :)

The T wave that is coming of Africa tomorrow has a very good chance to track westward. Is at a very low latitude with a building high north of the Caribbean.

Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.

Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
The T wave that is coming of Africa tomorrow has a very good chance to track westward. Is at a very low latitude with a building high north of the Caribbean.

can you give me the link for the GFS please.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.

Sleep is for chumps, haha.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.

What is your take on that cute little tropical wave at 10.5N/37W? I don't recall any of the models picking up on it. Looks like a sneaky little critter.

Just looked at the clock and realized that at this time 4 years ago, I had already lost power from Ike. 13 days later the power came back, and I had a new appreciation for electricity.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Is there ever a silver lining to weather?

Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)

If this verify, this is definitely a crazy year. I guess will depends on how fast this next T wave moves westward. We haven't  receive  a T wave coming through PR since before Isaac. Thist is a long time for this time of the year. Apparently we have a wall protecting the Easter caribbean this year.

Quoting lobdelse81:

What is your take on that cute little tropical wave at 10.5N/37W? I don't recall any of the models picking up on it. Looks like a sneaky little critter.

I would say that it should be watched. Upper-level winds aren't forecast to be too bad. At most, a bit of easterly shear on the south of the subtropical ridge, which isn't really unusual for systems in the deep tropics in any given year. Currently, the biggest hurdles are dry air in front of the wave, and of course South America. It needs to gain latitude if it means to survive.

In any case, models are sometimes not good at detecting development of tropical waves, since they are generally small scale features.

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)

Autumn doesn't exist for those of us living in Louisiana. Insert 25 cents to try again. :)

Quoting BrazoriaMan:
Just looked at the clock and realized that at this time 4 years ago, I had already lost power from Ike. 13 days later the power came back, and I had a new appreciation for electricity.

I can vouch for that! Put me through all the hurricanes you wish, just let me keep my electricity!

Quoting KoritheMan:


Autumn doesn't exist for those of us living in Louisiana. Insert 25 cents to try again. :)

Sucks for you, doesn't it? haha
You should at least take a road trip north for a few days to see the leaves changing in hardwood forests. So beautiful. It's my favorite time of year. It was better in Wisconsin when I used to live there, than in Missouri, but it's still nice here too. :)

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)

I want a wet Autumn and Winter. My house has resumed sinking after the drought from last year. I wouldnt mind half of Allison right now! But I do agree Autumn is nice. The only part of the year that bores me is February. Poor little February.

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)

Don't forget the delicious pumpkin cheesecake that comes out seasonally at Cheesecake Factory during that time. Yum :)

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Sucks for you, doesn't it? haha

I make a lot of enemies.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I can vouch for that! Put me through all the hurricanes you wish, just let me keep my electricity!

Amen to that! While it was neat(kinda like camping out), the heat and humidity stinks with no ac. We had a generator(thanks to Edouards bark and no bite), so it helped keep some of the basics going. Def grateful for that. I think the weirdest thing was walking outside, hearing no airplanes, no birds, just generators going.

Quoting lobdelse81:

Don't forget the delicious pumpkin cheesecake that comes out seasonally at Cheesecake Factory during that time. Yum :)

Pumpkin Cheesecake rocks! 2 slices please lol.

September 13, 2007 and 2008. Hurricane Humberto...and Ike.

Quoting Stormchaser121:
September 13, 2007 and 2008. Hurricane Humberto...and Ike.

Ooh, scary!

Quoting wxchaser97:

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.

Ike is the exact reason they seperated Cat status and storm surge. So many people here were thinking" Oh it's just a Cat 2, weve been there done that no problem". Unfortunately some of those people never made it with the Cat 4 Storm surge Ike brought, God bless em. There isnt much you can do because people who have been through hurricanes think the next one will be the same. What they do not understand is that every storm is different, different trees/limbs fall, storm surges can be worse than before, and so on. Anyone along the coast needs to evac for a cat 1 in my opinion, unless they are in a safe enough building where possibility of harm is very low. But even then, if you can get out, just get out.

Afternoon all. 3:30pm here in Sydney, Australia.
I am in the process of putting together information on our up coming fire season which could be the most serious in 50 years. I will put it all in a blog. Once it's finished I will let everyone know.
Cheers
AussieStorm

Evening everyone

The big story in the global tropics is Typhoon Sanba. While it is officially analysed as a 105 MPH category 2 storm by the JTWC, this storm has the satellite presentation of a solid category 4 (per ADT and SAB dvorak techniques), though it likely has winds of a category 3 storm (under rapid intensification it takes a little bit for winds to catch up). Regardless, very impressive storm, and the Philippines are very fortunate this system will be moving off to the north. All conditions are favorable for intensification to continue (SSTs at 30c, ample TCHP, forward motion is fairly slow, but not too slow, no signs of dry air, no proximity to land, shear is light, and divergence is good in all quadrants thanks to radial outflow).