Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie
Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.
With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.
Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I don't understand how some people only focus on the atlantic when this is happening!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
21:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================
SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (910 hPa) located at 16.3N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T6.5
Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.7N 128.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 23.6N 127.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 29.3N 126.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
NADINE BEING SCREWED!
Probably the determinant factor-as low level ridging may block returns.
if that happened i think the site would crash! obviously a storm like this near land is not good news. Okinawa and S.Korea and Kyushu need to prepare, they had a good drill with Bolaven. But for the short-term, no-one is in danger, and we can all take in the awesome beauty of these systems. To get to 910hPa in the WPac, so quickly, is remarkable.
I suspect the storm will decay faster than forecast. This year, the JTWC seems to have over-egged the staying power of the storms.
It won't be typhoon tip as it's far, far smaller, but def looks to be one of the strongest storms of the last 5 years.
And that's without comparing central pressures, windspeeds, or other indicae of intensity.
So let's not hyperventilate here. Sanba is a beautiful, intense tropical cyclone - and will quite likely be the strongest storm of the year in any ocean. Isn't that enough on its own?
AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE EAST ONCE NADINE HAS MOVED NORTH
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA BY
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER COLOMBIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE TRACK OF NADINE.
Megi central pressure was a 885 hPa (reference)
Wow. Just, wow. CIMSS is still registering an intensifying cyclone. The raw and adjusted T#s are now up to 7.5 - that'd be a 155kt cyclone. Even the current intensity estimate, now edging up to 149kts, is stunning. This is a Category 5 storm - no ifs, ands, or buts about it.
I Like what you posted here. Decent steady but not too intense rains spread over a lot of the dry areas over a five day period. Exactly the kind of pattern that will help the drought areas.
That's 4 storms halfway through September. And that would put us only 3 storms away from 19 named storms which is the Hyper-active season- Threshold, and we would be 5 named storms from Exhausting the naming list.
Cheers
AussieStorm
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