Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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730. hydrus
10:45 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Image of the night sky above Paranal on 21 July 2007, taken by ESO astronomer Yuri Beletsky. A wide band of stars and dust clouds, spanning more than 100 degrees on the sky, is seen. This is the Milky Way, the Galaxy we belong to. At the centre of the image, two bright objects are visible. The brightest is the planet Jupiter, while the other is the star Antares. Three of the four 8.2-m telescopes forming ESO's VLT are seen, with a laser beaming out from Yepun, Unit Telescope number 4. The laser points directly at the Galactic Centre. Also visible are three of the 1.8-m Auxiliary Telescopes used for interferometry. They show small light beams which are diodes located on the domes. The exposure time is 5 minutes and because the tracking was made on the stars, the telescopes are slightly blurred.
Date 2007
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
729. GTcooliebai
4:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Going to need to keep an eye on the western caribbean by the end of the month, this about the 4th run in a row the GFS shows something festering down there.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
728. txjac
3:34 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Jeff713 ~

It's been beautiful in Tomball the last couple days. Have you had a chance to get out at all?? Although look at the next several days. Whoa. The local Mets weren't kidding when you said enjoy it while you can!!

Link


Arent you looking forward to some rain? I can hardly wait ...ove the rain and Houston can pretty much always use it!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 2632
727. biff4ugo
3:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
I think the blog community here is heavily weighted toward the GULF and Florida (my observation). It isn't a big surprise since this is in English, primarily US weather, and the area gets hit so often.
4" of rain and millions in damages, would be a heavy summer shower in an expensive Miami neighborhood down here. So yes, we worry about low pressure systems developing that don't have hurricane in front of their names. 2004 and 2005 had Billions in damages and 4+ Tropical Storms with Cat 3+.
By the time they get to Canada, they have been around for a while, are moving fast, and you know they are coming. It is great to have bloggers on the ground there, sharing info.
If you had lows in the Gulf of St. Laurence spinning into Hurricanes in 24 hours, you would pay attention to them too.
That being said, it is wonderful to have Aussie, Asian?, Islander, Canadian, and Midwestern perspectives in the community.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 116 Comments: 1605
726. GeorgiaStormz
3:10 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Scene type for Nadine has switched to EYE.

6WiM0PY.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px; ">


I dont even see an eye...hmmm.
I guess itll clear out soon
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
725. jeffs713
3:08 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Jeff713 ~

It's been beautiful in Tomball the last couple days. Have you had a chance to get out at all?? Although look at the next several days. Whoa. The local Mets weren't kidding when you said enjoy it while you can!!

Link

My wife and I got out a bit Sunday (I actually BBQed), but sadly, my semester for nursing school just started, which means my life consists of work (full time M-F), school (sitting in front of a computer or reading), and sometimes sleep. :(
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
724. CloudGatherer
3:05 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
So the NHC has dropped the CIMSS-ADT estimate from its forecast entirely, presumably because it's so far out of line with the (already old) SAB/TAFB estimates. But 50kt storms don't have eyes. I continue to think that Nadine will make the formal upgrade to hurricane at 5pm. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is exactly right about this storm. She's just gotten herself fully organized, and she's going to put on a show for us.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
723. Tropicsweatherpr
3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS A BLEND BETWEEN ASCAT DATA HOURS
AGO...AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1002 UTC...AND RECENT VISIBLE PICTURES.

THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH LARGE...DOES NOT HAVE ORGANIZED BANDING
FEATURES YET...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE
IN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND HEAVILY BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14921
722. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
721. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:02 PM GMT on September 12, 2012


Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
720. CloudGatherer
3:01 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE SHOWS A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. USING A BLEND OF
THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT.
ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHEAR OVER NADINE WITH
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. A BROAD TROUGH WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM MAY BE ASSISTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...FROM
72 HOURS AND BEYOND NADINE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BELT OF
STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE
LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 25-30 KT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM AND CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

CENTER FIXES SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...
AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. NADINE CONTINUES TO
HEAD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERLIES BEYOND 72 HOURS...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND THE QUICKER 0600 UTC GFS SOLUTION.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1215 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS...WHICH SAMPLED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
REVEALED A LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 19.1N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 20.3N 49.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 22.1N 51.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 24.1N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 26.3N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 30.0N 52.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 32.5N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 34.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/PASCH
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719. CloudGatherer
2:59 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
This is from the ASCAT pass referenced by NHC
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718. 7544
2:59 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
are we on a bahamma blob watch for today nice looking blob there
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717. RTSplayer
2:58 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You should submit this to the NHC, no?


They already know about this.

HSI is the ranking system invented by Impact Weather. While not perfect, it's better than the SS wind scale alone.


HSI PDF paper from Impact Weather

Although one flaw with this paper is it did not lay out their specific definitions for how to determine the size parameters, so I used encyclopedias to figure that out and use as proxies when doing my "unofficial" rankings for Isaac, Leslie, and Michael. Michael was easiest because it was actually no larger than Andrew in size, and possibly one point smaller, which I could verify using data from Colorado state's site.

So I didn't just "make up" my numbers. I followed their rules and used close proxy storms to determine the size scores that I came up with.



Personally, I think the HSI needs to be enhanced by squaring the left side and dividing by 625 to renormalize, because it is the AREA of the hurricane that does damage, not the radius alone, and area is a function of radius squared.

Nevertheless, the HSI for most storm comparisons is more in line with IKE values than the SS wind scale alone, but it is not perfect, as there are some significant deviations.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
716. KarenRei
2:53 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
wow. karen from Iceland. never thought i would read a post from a person that lives in Iceland on a tropical blog, thank you , i hope you stay safe. just curious, does your island ever have tornadoes?


:) I haven't always lived in Iceland. I grew up in Houston, and my family still lives there, so even when I moved away elsewhere in the US, I kept up on following the tropics. But I completely fell in love with Iceland when here for a couple weeks as a tourist, to the point that I started learning the language, found a job, and moved. :) If I had to sum up Iceland in a brief sentence, it'd be "A stunningly beautiful artists'-colony island that exudes raw power."

Both tornadoes and lightning are very rare in Iceland, but they do happen. We pretty much never get the hot, humid air that you normally need to kick up tornadoes. I've never once felt any weather here that I would describe as "hot and humid". At best, "warm". I think relative humidity is high, but you don't notice because the weather is always cool (although seldom "cold" like winters in Canada, Alaska, parts of the northern great plains, etc).

Now, we do get some other things that I never saw before in the US. We get both polar stratospheric and noctilucent clouds, as well as tons of other weird cloud structures (some of the clouds out my window are forming these weird spindly tendrils, for example). Lots of formations happen here that suggest frequent and significant changes of the atmosphere in thin horizontal layers. Also in the winter, spring and fall we sometimes get a type of ice pellet precipitation that I never experienced in the US - they're pellets, not flakes, but they're still light and fluffy, not hard and dense. Lastly, weather here is famously changeable, esp. in the spring. I know people in the US like to joke, "If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes", but here it really can be like that regularly in certain times of year. It's still crazy to watch a single storm cycle through windspeeds from calm to 30m/s or so and precipitation between none, snow, rain, hail, and ice pellets, and the cloud cover between sun with rainbows and full clouds, with a change happening every 5 minutes or so, and the different parameters unconnected with each other, for a couple hours on end.

That said, summer this year was just unbelievably lovely. Tons of glacial melt, sadly (we're losing them fast), but clear skies and wonderful temperatures.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
715. islander101010
2:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
epac development downstream it means more rain for the southwest
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5009
713. CybrTeddy
2:50 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
...NADINE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 12
Location: 19.1°N 47.6°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
712. CloudGatherer
2:49 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2012 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 19:09:05 N Lon : 47:36:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 988.1mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.3 5.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -30.0C Cloud Region Temp : -57.2C

Scene Type : EYE

The data from CIMSS says that we've got Hurricane Nadine - and that she's got a readily discernible eye. And the raw T holds steady around 5 for the second straight reading, suggesting that Nadine may already be a Category 2 storm.

The only question is whether NHC will hold at 60kts, or take Nadine right there.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
711. RTSplayer
2:48 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Oh you're just posting all that to be PC and get all the plus votes. Seen this story before. Nothing new.

The fact of the matter is there has not been greater than a category 1 storm to impact the CONUS all year, with the more intense storms (Michael the Major) staying way out to see.

That, my friend, is a fact.


Isaac had higher max IKE value than any other storm this year.

Isaac had higher HSI rating than either Leslie or Michael ever achieved.

heck, Isaac had higher IKE value than Andrew or Charlie, and much higher IKE values and HSI values than several category 2 and 3 landfalls from the 2004 through 2008 seasons.


Isaac's maximum storm surge was in the middle of the old "Category 4" range on the SS scale.

Isaac produced widespread storm surges in the middle of the old "Category 3" range on the SS scale.


I calculated that Isaac at landfall probably ranks as a 20 on the Hurricane Severity Index(unofficially).

Gustav U.S. landfall is a 20 on HSI, officially, as a 110mph maximum category 2 on SS scale.

Dennis(05) landfall ranks as an 18 on the HSI, officially. It was a 125mph, Cat 3 at the time.


Using Andrew's size parameters, and comparing to Michael at peak intensity, I determined that Michael got either 7 or 8 points for size at maximum intensity, and 11 points for intensity itself.

So I gave category 3 Michael an 18 or 19, unofficially, on the HSI.



In reality, the "strongest" or "most severe" storm to form so far this year was in fact Isaac, and the SS wind scale is the only scale I can think of that does not rank it so.

The old SS storm surge scale, which was never used as it was intended to be used, ranks Isaac as a category 4 hurricane.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
710. Chicklit
2:47 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
707. Chicklit
2:42 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Does anybody have an instability graph?
Link WV GOM

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
705. Skyepony (Mod)
2:39 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting KarenRei:


Heh, as someone living in Iceland, we're where the storms go after you Canadians forget about them! ;) We just got hammered by a pretty bad storm pre-Leslie that killed a ton of sheep and left large numbers of homes in the north without power.

Any idea what winds and rains from ex-Leslie should be like tomorrow in the Reykjav�k area? Also, are our current clouds from her bands? Got some cool looking twisty ropey-cloud action going on outside my window right now.


They are still getting dvorak numbers on ex-Leslie. She's been steady at 25kts for wind speed, she should stay to the right of you so I'd say no higher than that. Your local forecast concurs.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
703. Bobbyweather
2:35 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:

bad


If the track moves just a tiny bit to the left, it will be even worse. There was Bolaven a few weeks ago, then Tembin. I can't believe the latest typhoons are all heading to the Korean Peninsula.
I am worried about this storm as I live in Seoul. The strength of this storm is expected to be very strong. Who knows, maybe it might be stronger than Bolaven.

By the way, the effects on the Seoul Metropolitan Area were not severe, so people here are saying they prepared for nothing. On the other hand, the southern provinces are suffering from the aftermath of two consecutive typhoons. It would be a nightmare for them if a third typhoon made landfall, especially since a 3-day holiday starts in about two weeks.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 91 Comments: 2679
702. Chicklit
2:33 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
At least it's not headed into the Phillipines.
But Kadena will get a real hurting.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
701. CybrTeddy
2:31 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Scene type for Nadine has switched to EYE.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2012 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 19:05:23 N Lon : 47:30:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.3 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -29.2C Cloud Region Temp : -57.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Raw T# now up to 5.1.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
700. Murko
2:31 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Got about 6" rain last night from Son of Isaac, here on Eleuthera, Bahamas. We're slap, bang in the exact middle of the blob right now.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
699. Chicklit
2:27 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

bad

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
697. CloudGatherer
2:24 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I see an EYE!
Well, I think I see one on the latest image.
Looks like CIMSS sees one, too.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2012 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 19:05:23 N Lon : 47:30:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9      4.3       5.1


That Raw T# is just that - raw, and subject to high degrees of variation. But it's also eye-popping. If it's right, Nadine is now a Category 2 Hurricane.

Again, that's the raw number. But the Adjusted T at 10:15am is 4.3, and that's already a Category 1 storm.

I'd be surprised if they upgrade to a hurricane at 11am based on these numbers; there's no rush. The CI is still just 3.9T, and that's a hair shy of a hurricane. But there's a very real chance that we'll have a 60kt tropical storm at 11am, and a Category 2 hurricane by 5pm.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 460
696. indianrivguy
2:23 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Sanba.

Ok. Repeat after me.

Sanba.

Now this name has category 5 hurricane/typhoon status written all over it.

One more time

Sanba.




What a beauty
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
695. gregpinehurstnc
2:21 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
wow. karen from Iceland. never thought i would read a post from a person that lives in Iceland on a tropical blog, thank you , i hope you stay safe. just curious, does your island ever have tornadoes?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
694. VR46L
2:21 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting KarenRei:


Heh, as someone living in Iceland, we're where the storms go after you Canadians forget about them! ;) We just got hammered by a pretty bad storm pre-Leslie that killed thousands of sheep and left large numbers of homes in the north without power.

Any idea what winds and rains from ex-Leslie should be like tomorrow in the Reykjavík area? Also, are our current clouds from her bands? Got some cool looking twisty ropey-cloud action going on outside my window right now.


lol I get them after you ... check with local met station but ex leslie should be with you very shortly
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
693. midgulfmom
2:20 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Well, despite Ike only being a Category 2 storm, I do remember the NHC emphasizing well ahead of time that it was pushing a much larger surge than a normal Category 2 storm. I don't know it people just didn't comprehend what the NHC was saying, or they just ignored the warnings. Of course, I watch this site a lot during hurricane season, so I was well aware of the fact.
Morning All....my quick 2¢ before work....you have to take into consideration the middle man of the media that tends to drive the publics attention. In the case of Issac, politicians and the broadcast media, downplayed the storm and directed people to "hunker down". A now much maligned term in these parts....JS BBL
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1164
691. Chicklit
2:19 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
what they are NOT putting into this new data, is HOW much damage is going to occur, with 20 inches of rain and water up to the roof tops from flooding..20 inches of rain is more than 20 feet..of water on the ground..they need to tell people how dangerous the rainfall totals will be,storm surge and winds are only part of the devastating effects from any tropical system, no matter what the category of the storm is...people hear cat-1 or just a tropical storm and they ignore the warnings..........tell them..20 inches of rain is coming and the water will be up to your roof..THEN they will listen

second that.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
690. jeffs713
2:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting StormHype:
YouTube video of insane driver crashing into tree while trying to pass stalled cars in a flash flood last night on Siesta Key. This has been on TWC this morning as well.
9/11/12 Siesta Flash Flood crash

link is bad.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
688. KarenRei
2:09 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting NovaScotia33:


Ya you are right. The fish living in the Azores should not be concerned with this. You know as a person in Canada who just witnessed MILLIONS of dollars in damage in flooding and wind from Leslie, I get a little tired of people on here who completely jam the blog with post after post when there is a low pressure sysetem in the Gulf, but then could car eless when a tropical storm or Hurricane heads elsewhere and causes destruction. It is frankly pathetic.


Heh, as someone living in Iceland, we're where the storms go after you Canadians forget about them! ;) We just got hammered by a pretty bad storm pre-Leslie that killed a ton of sheep and left large numbers of homes in the north without power.

Any idea what winds and rains from ex-Leslie should be like tomorrow in the Reykjavk area? Also, are our current clouds from her bands? Got some cool looking twisty ropey-cloud action going on outside my window right now.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
687. SFLWeatherman
2:09 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Invest 11E????
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4984
682. Stats56
2:05 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


It's one thing to get the new scale designed and officially implemented, but it's a whole other ball of wax to actually get people to listen to it.

You can take a horse to water...


Right on the money. Despite warnings of certain death, people stayed or waited too long to leave.

Said, but true.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
681. ncstorm
2:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
What happened to Storm2ktracker?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
680. StormHype
2:02 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
YouTube video of insane driver crashing into tree while trying to pass stalled cars in a flash flood last night on Siesta Key. This has been on TWC this morning as well.
9/11/12 Siesta Flash Flood crash

Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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