Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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Quoting spathy:


Hi Groth
There is no way on Earth that everyone will like everyone.

Please go back and look at the timetable and the nature of the posts I quoted. (my posts)

Not a single yo/hiya/whats up/ Or even your question makes no sense.

Thats not a community.
Thats ....
Are you someone I always talk to?
If not....
You are not worth 10 clicks on the keypad.

I have seen where people ask a question twice,and then get a nasty response.
When someone could have spent less effort in responding.... Hi I dont know,but x.. might know.

When I post as often as I did this evening,that is willful ignoring. And from the responses I received this evening. Fewer people have me on ignore than I would think.

But I must say. WU is still very close to the community that I joined.
But Sometimes I/We/WU needs a reminder.
Thats all I wanted to work out.
Work out in my mind and in my fellow WUndergrounders.


No worries! I saw your post earlier (when I was still at work, around 4pm CST), but I had a work crisis come up, and had to handle it, then bail (before another crisis came up).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, if Michael can go major, then so can Nadine.
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I don't think the wave train is going to end that soon. There is still strong interest in two more possible waves in the next week.

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED NADINE HAD DEVELOPED A TIGHT
INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CDO FEATURE HAVE FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS EXISTS OWING TO THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...

WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NADINE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


The FIM, which has performed pretty good this year, makes Nadine a strong storm.

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Convection is increasing nicely, even the NHC said some RI is possible. Nadine will be an interesting storm.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7962
Quoting Skyepony:
jeffs713~ I had the same thoughts on larger vs smaller circulations earlier & no time. The only thing I'd add is that the large circulations from fat African waves tend to deal with way more dust. The larger waves as they come off Africa blow a dust storm up to the NW of them for them to digest as they develop where the little storms just have to deal with what if any dust is in the area of the shortwave or cut off low.

Oh yeah, good point.
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423. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat of that little something that tried to happen in the BOC today but moved into MX..



Spathy~ You don't want to see the answer...those extra fat African waves with all that moisture...that's heat. The hotter it is the more the atmosphere can hold.
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THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED NADINE HAD DEVELOPED A TIGHT
INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CDO FEATURE HAVE FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS EXISTS OWING TO THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NADINE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Nadine is getting some nice strong banding together.

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418. Skyepony (Mod)
jeffs713~ I had the same thoughts on larger vs smaller circulations earlier & no time. The only thing I'd add is that the large circulations from fat African waves tend to deal with way more dust. The larger waves as they come off Africa blow a dust storm up to the NW of them for them to digest as they develop where the little storms just have to deal with what if any dust is in the area of the shortwave or cut off low.
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Now that Nadine is here I say she has a shot for major hurricane status ,and now we need to wait for Oscar will it come from the gulf or the Caribbean or the Atlantic is just a wait and see game.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
I leave you guys with rapidly climbing T-numbers from CIMSS.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.7
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Quoting jeffs713:

Hi Grothar!


Hey, jeffs.
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Quoting weatherh98:



He should be:)

You can be my mom for a few hours hahahahah!

Most likely is Gordon.

I can see Gordon getting upgraded to major and Ernesto to a cat2.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7962
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Quoting weatherh98:


Yea how we aren't a family anymore. (not seeing how this is true)

Privately Cody and I are arguing about my stupidity level...

I think we are still a family but we got the tropics to focus on with Nadine. Also there is nothing to argue about over your stupidity level;)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7962
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Spath!! I talk to more people on here than my own family. I have 2 sisters and a brother I haven't spoken to in years and never intend to. Not everybody can like everybody else. I've always enjoyed talking to you.

Hi Grothar!
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Quoting spathy:























Any questions or communicative answers?

Durr.. Uhh...

Actually.. to answer a bit..

Hi Spathy!

Ok, to be serious... large storms tend to form from monsoonal systems (large circulations, not always from the wave train), while smaller storms tend to form from cut off lows and such. It all depends on the size of the initial circulation. While a smaller storm can be easily disrupted by dry air, they also are less likely to suck it in. Large systems tend to suck dry air in more often due to their size, but are usually only limited by it - not killed outright.

As for why the warm water by Cuba hasn't been tapped - the drier the air is over it, the more the water can heat up (less clouds). Also, storms have not been able to track over it much due to larger-scale synoptic patterns steering them. Some years, storms will absolutely miss the best TCHP. Other years, they tap the best TCHP constantly (2005, for example).

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It seems as though we have Nadine. =)

Hello gurrrl.
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I gotta role out.. Morning comes early....
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
406. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT of 14L


Quoting spathy:
Hi Sky.
Good to see you.
YOU KNOW I LOVE lurking on your informative BLOG.
Thanks for your effort. :O)


Thanks Spathy~ There's a pic in there of a fire in my neighborhood a few hours ago. Firefighters did a great job.
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Quoting Grothar:


Why, is he saying his is higher?



He should be:)
Quoting spathy:


That sounds like my grocery list.
If you are ever in the area please feel welcome. And I would love to cook for a WU traveler.


You can be my mom for a few hours hahahahah!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Kirk and Gordon could be upgraded later on.


Most likely is Gordon.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting spathy:


Thanks weatherh98

There were many hello WU etc...
Just a couple of questions.
Although the questions were truly important to me/and relevant. Its besides the point.
Thanks for being a good WU family member weatherh98.


Yo, Spath!! I talk to more people on here than my own family. I have 2 sisters and a brother I haven't spoken to in years and never intend to. Not everybody can like everybody else. I've always enjoyed talking to you.
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Quoting Grothar:


Why, is he saying his is higher?
hehehehehehehe
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Tropical Storm NADINE
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NADINE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 17.8°N 45.2°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropical Storm NADINE now on NHC site.


14-7-1.

The lack of major hurricanes is to be expected in El Nino years. (declared or not), though Kirk and Gordon made fair runs.

Kirk and Gordon could be upgraded later on.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Yea how we aren't a family anymore. (not seeing how this is true)

Privately Cody and I are arguing about my stupidity level...


Why, is he saying his is higher?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not arguable.


You're right, because it's unarguable that I'm a genious.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
spathy hello

did i pass the test

i only just got back
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Tropical Storm NADINE now on NHC site.


14-7-1.

The lack of major hurricanes is to be expected in El Nino years. (declared or not), though Kirk and Gordon made fair runs.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
Quoting Skyepony:
Crazy day across the globe..lotta accidents..ship took down off Pakistan in as storm 25 fishermen drowned. Flash flooding in Canada & China. Nuclear had a few note worthy..

Washington State..The Department of Energy has found evidence that a tank at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation maybe leaking radioactive material. More unknown material has been found in a third place between the two shells of Tank AY-102, which went into use in 1971. A photo taken of the same spot in 2006 shows that the area was clean then. The finding this week of a third spot increases concerns that the tank, one of Hanford's 28 double shell tanks, has a leak from its inner shell. The tanks are needed to hold high level radioactive waste for up to 40 more years until the last of the waste can be treated for disposal. Tank AY-102 has a capacity of about 1 million gallons but currently stores about 707,000 gallons of liquid waste and 151,00 gallons of waste sludge.

A bunch of cesium turned up in a river in Japan.


Hey {{Spathy}}!


Why not just pump it into another tank until the liquid levels are below the leak?

Obvious and probably been done already, but then again, you weren't specific.
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Tropical Storm Nadine, Unofficially posted on the NHC site.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Yea how we aren't a family anymore. (not seeing how this is true)

Privately Cody and I are arguing about my stupidity level...

It's not arguable.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
389. Skyepony (Mod)
Spathy you know we are all just aghast at the ghost of Michael.. Please, you know we accept you because your such a weather freak but now is no time for a fit..

I'd like to take a moment to dedicate this storm to a long ago banned blogger..banned but not forgotten~ MichaelSTL. I think rainbow was his favorite.

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Quoting spathy:


Thanks weatherh98

There were many hello WU etc...
Just a couple of questions.
Although the questions were truly important to me/and relevant. Its besides the point.
Thanks for being a good WU family member weatherh98.


Youre welcome.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT.
THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
NADINE...THE FOURTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 KT. NADINE MADE A SLIGHT JOG
TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
TRANSIENT MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE LARGER
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
CENTER...THE VORTEX COLUMN SHOULD BECOME VERTICALLY DEEPER AND MORE
STABLE...RESULTING IN LESS WOBBLE IN THE TRACK MOTION. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON
NADINE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ROUGHLY 55W LONGITUDE. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW SOON AND HOW MUCH NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE ON DAYS 3-5. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON DAY 4...AND TOWARD
THE EAST ON DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED NADINE HAD DEVELOPED A TIGHT
INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CDO
FEATURE HAVE FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS EXISTS OWING TO THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND OTHER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE
HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NADINE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 17.8N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 18.9N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 20.5N 49.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 22.2N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 24.4N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 28.0N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 30.0N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 31.5N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




New consensus has presented itself west of the NHC forecast cone. Still no threat to land, just something to point out.
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Quoting Grothar:
Who's fighting now?

The FIM for the 26th




no one fighting
spathy is having flashbacks
of the waltons
or something
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Quoting Grothar:


So who is fighting? I went back and read some of the blogs and could not figure out what the argument is about.

Family matters???


Yea how we aren't a family anymore. (not seeing how this is true)

Privately Cody and I are arguing about my stupidity level...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting weatherh98:


You like that model huh?!


So who is fighting? I went back and read some of the blogs and could not figure out what the argument is about.

Family matters???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
380. Skyepony (Mod)
Crazy day across the globe..lotta accidents..ship took down off Pakistan in as storm 25 fishermen drowned. Flash flooding in Canada & China. Nuclear had a few note worthy..

Washington State..The Department of Energy has found evidence that a tank at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation maybe leaking radioactive material. More unknown material has been found in a third place between the two shells of Tank AY-102, which went into use in 1971. A photo taken of the same spot in 2006 shows that the area was clean then. The finding this week of a third spot increases concerns that the tank, one of Hanford's 28 double shell tanks, has a leak from its inner shell. The tanks are needed to hold high level radioactive waste for up to 40 more years until the last of the waste can be treated for disposal. Tank AY-102 has a capacity of about 1 million gallons but currently stores about 707,000 gallons of liquid waste and 151,00 gallons of waste sludge.

A bunch of cesium turned up in a river in Japan.


Hey {{Spathy}}!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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