Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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Nadine looks soo lonely out there :( Not even a yellow crayon area to keep her company. I mean, Helene had Gordon, Isaac had Joyce and then Kirk, then Kirk had Leslie toward the end, and Michael had Leslie the whole time. And I'm pretty sure that every storm since Ernesto has at least had a yellow circle somewhere in the Atlantic to keep company.



Nadine is one lonely duck :/
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Sanba has been officially classified as a typhoon, the eye is lo longer apparent on satellite because it shrank overnight. It's very clear on microwave though, eye wall is about two thirds complete.



Forecast to be a major as it heads for southern Japan or the Koreas... that would be very bad.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Good morning. The 6z GFS is suggesting CV season isn't done yet. This would be our fastest developing CV storm of the year if it happened, a well defined TS before reaching the CV islands:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting ZStoner:


I've often wondered what melting impacts Tropical-borne storms have on Greenland when a system hits or brushes by Greenland. Especially those that have tracks that zipped by Nova Scotia like Leslie. Would it be able to travel far enough inland to have any small impact on the ice sheet (even if negligble)?

Might make for an interesting Blog Topic for Dr. Masters someday. :)


Although the 'melt season' in Greenland is almost over for this year, this storm is bringing warmer air from the southern latitudes as well as heavy rains, which will probably result in some additional melting. Of greater concern to me are the cyclonic winds which may cause more of the arctic ocean ice to be flushed out of the Fram Strait between Eastern Greenland and Svalbard. 2012 has already obliterated every existing record minimum for Arctic Sea Ice, in terms of Extent, Area and Volume.
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Good morning everyone, Nadine is looking good this morning.
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Good morning, everyone! This is from a friend in Newfoundland.

We had winds up to 130 km/hr here today.....lots of trees down and siding off of houses on the street. There were windows blown out of buildings downtown, roofs came off, sheds were uprooted....one landed on a Corvette in Paradise! I only lost the garbage container I had in my yard.....wonder where that landed!
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WTNT34 KNHC 120843
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012

...NADINE STRENGTHENS MORE WHILE IT REMAINS FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 46.6W
ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NADINE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




I hope Nadine keeps away from Bermuda. They had enough problems from Leslie.











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Quoting VR46L:
Still watching this blob in the BOC ...Interesting ,very Interesting...


Which blob. I see many blobs.
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522. VR46L
Still watching this blob in the BOC ...Interesting ,very Interesting...

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
last post for the night/morning
got to get some sleep later all



wunder if whats to nadines ne that appears coming down sw ward torwards her will have an effect

anyway out we shall see after 8


In short...yes...that's what makes Nadine ultimately turn eastward late in the forecast. I did my usual daily (and detialed) blog update released in the last hour...which details the forecast of Nadine and all the other stuff currently in the Atlantic....

That swirl to the NE of Nadine I think is ex-Isaac....believe it or not. I've been tracking it in the last several days worth of charts that I have been posting on my blog....
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186 Skyepony As for putting additives in airliner & military fuel for high level reflection.. I'll have to look later for something but to start the research is certainly happening.

Without going further, why would military aircraft want to make themselves more visible to the enemy?
Going further, why would commercial airlines or the military wanna wreck their jet engines? Don't fly through volcanic eruptions cuz the dust melts in the engines then deposits onto the rotors: which throws them off balance and cause excessive vibrations... leading to engine failure.
Aluminum oxide in the fuel would cause the exact same problem, material deposition on the rotors.

186 Skyepony Here's a Harvard/NASA paper to mull over... Interesting using DE...never thought of that... That is such a drying substance. It's edible, non-toxic, we put it in grain & food to kill bugs. It very effectively dries out & dehydrated bugs with exoskeletons. Awful to get in your eyes. Completely fits the description of white fine powder that people found on cars & saw "raining" from the sky during Isaac.

DiatomousEarth is not harmless. Admittedly folks thought it was once upon a time. Useta put it in baby powder, and to "make rice look white" for bulk buyers as well as insect control. Of course, any bulk buyer learned on their mother's knee that ya had to wash the rice until the water was clear before cooking it.
Useta think asbestos was harmless too.
And for the exact same reason, most DE products have been pulled off the market. Not only was DE killing insects by causing perforations in their digestive and respiratory/circulatory systems, it also perforated then embedded itself into peoples lungs... leading to a DE-equivalent of asbestosis, and cancer.
Nowadays, there are no baby powders containing DE. Rice is no longer allowed to be contaminated with DE. And even garden supplies containing the safer forms of DE are labeled with a
"Handle with CAUTION: Diatomous Earth is known to cause lung damage and is a known carcinogen."

As for the "fine white powder", it's fairly common for strong seawinds and sea-borne storms to deposit salt upon cars/etc when they cross onto land.
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Nadine taking on an S shape.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
last post for the night/morning
got to get some sleep later all



wunder if whats to nadines ne that appears coming down sw ward torwards her will have an effect

anyway out we shall see after 8
wondered about the same feature....how is she going to get past that? We will see...sleep well.
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Quoting Grothar:


Go to my blog I wrote on September 4th. The middle part.
popping in between laundry loads :p checked out your blog...good info and liked the prognosticating .... now I see why the future runs some have been posting makes sense. Thanks
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last post for the night/morning
got to get some sleep later all



wunder if whats to nadines ne that appears coming down sw ward torwards her will have an effect

anyway out we shall see after 8
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Can't find any good live feeds from the southern tip of Greenland, but there are a few scattered about:

http://www.webcamgalore.com/EN/Greenland/countryc am-0.html
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Quoting will40:



it is developing one off of africa but a long ways out
Do the gfs drop the Caribbean system?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nadine you look so good, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you become the 2nd Major Hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

I say it first:)
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Quoting ZStoner:


I've often wondered what melting impacts Tropical-borne storms have on Greenland when a system hits or brushes by Greenland. Especially those that have tracks that zipped by Nova Scotia like Leslie. Would it be able to travel far enough inland to have any small impact on the ice sheet (even if negligble)?

Might make for an interesting Blog Topic for Dr. Masters someday. :)


I doubt they would be much different than other powerful extratropical low pressure systems. At that point the warm core is completely gone, so the rain would have no melting effect.
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490. GTcooliebai: 180 hrs. heads up Canary Islands and Morocco
496 trHUrrIXC5MMX: I've never seen a storm that strong there... is it going for Africa...? a record?

I've been wondering whether the GreenSahara era -- the last time that the Global weather might have been as warm as we are expecting soon -- was caused by hurricanes (and post/extraTropicalSystems) recurving back into NorthAfrica (rather than Waves taking a more northern path through the Sahara).

Seems like an awful lot of TropicalCyclones have been headed toward the Azores this year. A little farther east and a smidgeon farther south woulda sent those storms into the Madeira&CanaryIslands then Morocco for a trip through the Sahara.
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Nadine is really impressing me tonight.
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Good night everyone, Greenland is feeling the effects of Extra-Tropical Storm Leslie tonight.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tropical Storm Delta struck the Canary Islands as a strong extratropical storm, causing significant damage and then crossed over Morocco before dissipating.








keyword...tropical cyclone...
for the first time maybe
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Nadine you look so good, I'm going to go out on a limb and say you become the 2nd Major Hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

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Quoting MTWX:


Angisoq, Greenland


I've often wondered what melting impacts Tropical-borne storms have on Greenland when a system hits or brushes by Greenland. Especially those that have tracks that zipped by Nova Scotia like Leslie. Would it be able to travel far enough inland to have any small impact on the ice sheet (even if negligble)?

Might make for an interesting Blog Topic for Dr. Masters someday. :)
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Nadine the dancing Mermaid
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Quoting wxchaser97:

If that pans out then yes, also a pretty sharp curve. Are you working on a blog tonight?


As we speak.
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00z GFS is spoiling all hopes for rains in the NE Caribbean. So sad...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ive never seen a storm that strong there... is it going for Africa...? a record?
Tropical Storm Delta struck the Canary Islands as a strong extratropical storm, causing significant damage and then crossed over Morocco before dissipating.






Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Grothar:
Nite everyone. I have to get up at 11 tomorrow morning, so I need to get some sleep. Play nice.

I have to go to bed as well, but I have to get up at 6am EDT. Night everyone.
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Nite everyone. I have to get up at 11 tomorrow morning, so I need to get some sleep. Play nice.
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it is developing one off of africa but a long ways out
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Active ITCZ much?

If that pans out then yes, also a pretty sharp curve. Are you working on a blog tonight?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
180 hrs. heads up Canary Islands and Morocco:



Ive never seen a storm that strong there... is it going for Africa...? a record?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
240 hrs. looks like Nadine will be visiting Morocco, Portugal, and Spain.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Active ITCZ much?



yes if all that developed we would have to borrow names from next year
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Quoting will40:



lmao at the lows on the 00z GFS


Active ITCZ much?
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HadesGodWyvern [quoting JapanMeteorologicalAgency]: TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX... (1006 hPa) located at 31.5N 145.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.
463 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [Convection photo animation of the region]

Looks like the Phillippines-heading Typhoon is sending a train of TropicalCyclones and Invests straight into the Fukushima coast of Japan.
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192 hrs.

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180 hrs. heads up Canary Islands and Morocco:

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Quoting Grothar:


Not even the first sunrise?


OK may be that
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488. Skyepony (Mod)
SANBA has an eye.. click for loop.
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487. MTWX
Quoting Grothar:


I would have withdrawals.


I do! Especially over long weekends!! ;)

I try to follow with my phone, but it's just too much of a hassle to post from that thing! I need to get me a tablet or something...
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Quoting Tazmanian:




You seen nothing 1st


Not even the first sunrise?
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Just thinking about being without my Mac makes me twitch. ;)


It could give someone the vapors. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


I would have withdrawals.


Just thinking about being without my Mac makes me twitch. ;)
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483. MTWX
Quoting Skyepony:
Leslie coming at Greenland..


Angisoq, Greenland
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yawn............a thunderstorm would be good....
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lmao at the lows on the 00z GFS
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Quoting MTWX:


The only time I'm ever on is when I'm at work... (don't have a computer at home)...


I would have withdrawals.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.