Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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Quoting TomballTXPride:
I do like this trend that the more intense storms stay far out to sea and the ones that get close to the CONUS can't get over category 1.

Yeah.

I like this.







Again I reiterate, that mindset you're taking is why we need a new scale. Normal category 1 hurricanes can't produce this, and the reason Isaac didn't intensify was the same reason Ike didn't - it's pressures got so low that the wind field expanded, increasing surge, which may I remind you is THE number one reason for deaths in a tropical cyclone, water. Other than winds, Isaac might have well been a major hurricane as the storm surge it was producing was equal to one, same with the pressure. And plus, there was still even quite a bit of damage from winds as it where because Isaac pretty much crawled across Louisiana as a hurricane, giving a lot of people periods of high end TS to low end Hurricane winds.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




It is not a el niño. Year stop calling it that

yes it is...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do you or anyone has the final tropical activity prediction for this year...just your thoughts. ???
I'll say 16-17 storms, 9 hurricanes and 2-3 majors

yes... an EL NINO year..




It is not a el niño. Year stop calling it that
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from the farmers almanac..

September 2012
12th-15th. Hurricane threat Southeast Coast.
16th-19th. A tropical disturbance dawdles off the coast. Showery, then clearing.
20th-23rd. Windy and rainy.
24th-27th. Squalls sweep across the region from west to east.
28th-30th. Another spell of unsettled weather.

October 2012
1st-3rd. Dry and tranquil.
4th-7th. Gusty winds, mainly fair.
8th-11th. Heavy rains, thanks to a low-pressure disturbance moving off Atlantic Coast.
12th-15th. Chilly rains spread through the Deep South into Carolinas.
16th-19th. Drying out after a week of damp weather.
20th-23rd. Scattered showers, then clearing and unseasonable cold, with an early frost for some localities.
24th-27th. Light rain.
28th-31st. Fair for trick-or-treaters.

November 2012
1st-3rd. Fair.
4th-7th. Stormy, especially Gulf Coast, then clearing, cold weather.
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Quoting CloudGatherer:
SAB put Nadine at 55kts in its update an hour ago, CIMSS puts Nadine at 61kts and strengthening quickly.

The 11am update will take the storm to at least the 55kt value, and if CIMSS hits 65kts by then - which is what its raw T# is right now - I wouldn't be surprised to see a blended value of 60kts at 11am. They won't take Nadine to hurricane strength, as far out to sea as it is, until ATCF, SAB and CIMSS are all closer, even if CIMSS gets there before 11am. But I'd be shocked if Nadine wasn't a hurricane by 5pm. This storm is getting itself organized a whole heck of a lot faster than predicted. Kinda like...Michael. Season's second (official) major?


do you or anyone has the final tropical activity prediction for this year...just your thoughts. ???
I'll say 16-17 storms, 9 hurricanes and 2-3 majors

yes... an EL NINO year..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TomballTXPride:

The conditions won't be as favorable for her. You can't compare that storm to her. Two entirely different time frames.

Plus, the name "Nadine" does not have a major hurricane ring to it. It just doesn't.


I wasn't comparing Nadine to Michael in any way, just pointing out that no one expected Michael to intensify at all. You can't predict what these things do really, just speculate.
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EP, 90, 2012091212, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1056W, 30, 1006, LO

the Epac invest not being classified TD yet...whf?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
that Texas death ridge and east coast trough are getting old. Seems those features have been present for years now. I would like instead for a nice trough in the mid-Mississippi valley with a ridge in the Southeast US extending out into the SW Atlantic. Those areas could use a pattern change.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Nadine is at 50 knots:

AL, 14, 2012091212, , BEST, 0, 187N, 470W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 275, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
SAB put Nadine at 55kts in its update an hour ago, CIMSS puts Nadine at 61kts and strengthening quickly.

The 11am update will take the storm to at least the 55kt value, and if CIMSS hits 65kts by then - which is what its raw T# is right now - I wouldn't be surprised to see a blended value of 60kts at 11am. They won't take Nadine to hurricane strength, as far out to sea as it is, until ATCF, SAB and CIMSS are all closer, even if CIMSS gets there before 11am. But I'd be shocked if Nadine wasn't a hurricane by 5pm. This storm is getting itself organized a whole heck of a lot faster than predicted. Kinda like...Michael. Season's second (official) major?
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615. beell
....!
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Doubt it.


Then again, who expected little and truly pathetic TD13 to become a major hurricane? :P
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612. beell
.
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611. beell
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I found it in a blog.


Ya'll gotta be kidding. X Isaac is coming down the west side of the large low pressure trough around 60N-headed for the North Sea.
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ATCF says Nadine is at 50 knots:

AL, 14, 2012091212, , BEST, 0, 187N, 470W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 275, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13505
609. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I changed it to NCHurricane09. I was confused.


Thats Ok .. Everyone makes mistakes :) especially me!!
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Quoting VR46L:


I believe that maybe EX Michael .. to call any bits of the Ghost of Isaac Ex Isaac now would be a stretch

I changed it to NCHurricane09. I was confused.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
What's up next, Oscar. Time for focus on him. This Nadine won't amount to much.

Blob watch in the BOC.
I think Nadine would be a major.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4204
605. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I found it in MiamiHurricane09's blog.


I believe that maybe EX Michael .. to call any bits of the Ghost of Isaac Ex Isaac now would be a stretch
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For those who didn't see, my blog.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting VR46L:


Ex Isaac ???

I found it in NCHurricane09's blog.
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600. VR46L
Quoting Bobbyweather:
I heard exIsaac is located near the Azores.

I see Nadine in the lower part of the image.

Also, there is a chance of formation east of the Azores according to SSD.


Ex Isaac ???
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Quoting wxchaser97:

So a major hurricane qualifies as boring?



whats not quote the downcaster and fishcaster too me there nothing but trolls and by guteing them you are feeding the trolls and thats what they like they will nevere learn
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Mornin' gang!

ncstorm... mannn, those cmc runs I can do without. I like the Nogaps much better, besides, Texas needs a drink, south and central Florida has had enough rain for awhile. I was told yesterday that within a few days they will begin dumping Okeechobee water on us, which will turn the St. Lucie estuary into a desert again.

Largo, you might like this site, LOTS of cool stuff if you explore it. (others might too, it just seems Mr. Largo explores widely for interesting graphics for us.)The hydrologic snapshots on the right can keep you occupied for hours. Go Hydrology

I find myself checking in here daily, he creates some nice graphics that help clarify a very complex hydrological system.
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I heard exIsaac is located near the Azores.

I see Nadine in the lower part of the image.

Also, there is a chance of formation east of the Azores according to SSD.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nadine = Fish

Michael = Boring

Leslie = Ugly and Boring.

Next please.

So a major hurricane qualifies as boring?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting washingtonian115:
So is Nadine going to be another hype storm?(people screaming cat 5 for Leslie) or this time we're going to have some sense when tracking this one?.

It seems like she already wants to put on a show as she is organizing very nicely.

Quoting LargoFl:
yeah sept and october we here watch the gulf for sure

Yup with the stalled fronts or BOC or any ernergy that gets in might have a chance.

Quoting weatherh98:
Blob watch early today

Already, its too early.

I have to go to school, bye everyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Still a mess inside.



Getting much better quickly though. (Maybe an eyewall forming aswell?)
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nadine = Fish

Michael = Boring

Leslie = Ugly and Boring.

Next please.
Michael was nothing boring imo.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4204
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ADT up to 3.7 already with Nadine, raw up to 3.9.

ADT also has 70mph winds, I don't think it will go that high for the next advisory but it is possible and Nadine is certainly not at 45mph.

Actually raw T is now 4.0 now
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 990.0mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 4.0
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
12/1145 UTC 18.6N 46.9W T3.5/3.5 NADINE -- Atlantic

55kts-60kts
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nadine = Fish

Michael = Boring

Leslie = Ugly and Boring.

Next please.


Osker;)
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Quoting LargoFl:
yeah sept and october we here watch the gulf for sure


Especially you guys as fronts begin to stall further south. Y'all can get them from that too
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At the rate Nadine is going she will be fishy food.The fish have had it rough this year.J/K.
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Blob watch early today
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72 hour forecast...........
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blob in the bahamas..
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ADT up to 3.7 already with Nadine, raw up to 3.9.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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