Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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YouTube video of insane driver crashing into tree while trying to pass stalled cars in a flash flood last night on Siesta Key. This has been on TWC this morning as well.
9/11/12 Siesta Flash Flood crash

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Quoting TomballTXPride:


It's one thing to get the new scale designed and officially implemented, but it's a whole other ball of wax to actually get people to listen to it.

You can take a horse to water...
So true.
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Quoting NovaScotia33:


Ya you are right. The fish living in the Azores should not be concerned with this. You know as a person in Canada who just witnessed MILLIONS of dollars in damage in flooding and wind from Leslie, I get a little tired of people on here who completely jam the blog with post after post when there is a low pressure sysetem in the Gulf, but then could car eless when a tropical storm or Hurricane heads elsewhere and causes destruction. It is frankly pathetic.


Surprised no one posted the pictures of damage in Canada from Leslie.

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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
To CyberTeddy and TomballTx, I though the NHC was already working on a new scale, especially in light of what Ike's surge did in relativity to its wind speed?


From what I've gathered they're only going to be increasing the emphasis on certain dangers. I think the only way you're going to gather people's attention is if you completely get rid of the Category system.
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NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Monday

There has been discussion about including other hurricane hazards, especially storm surge, in the same scale as wind. NHC has recognized the importance of storm surge since our inception and has been a part of several significant advances in forecasting storm surge. NHC is currently experimenting with two new approaches intended to help communities prepare for and respond to surge threats.

Here is the link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20120910_pa_surgeSca le.pdf
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Fish, Cody.

Fish.

You gonna be in chat later with BeanTech???


Ya you are right. The fish living in the Azores should not be concerned with this. You know as a person in Canada who just witnessed MILLIONS of dollars in damage in flooding and wind from Leslie, I get a little tired of people on here who completely jam the blog with post after post when there is a low pressure sysetem in the Gulf, but then could car eless when a tropical storm or Hurricane heads elsewhere and causes destruction. It is frankly pathetic.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Would make sense.

Definitely would.

A new scale should be well rounded and benefit all.
Well, despite Ike only being a Category 2 storm, I do remember the NHC emphasizing well ahead of time that it was pushing a much larger surge than a normal Category 2 storm. I don't know it people just didn't comprehend what the NHC was saying, or they just ignored the warnings. Of course, I watch this site a lot during hurricane season, so I was well aware of the fact.
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To CyberTeddy and TomballTx, I though the NHC was already working on a new scale, especially in light of what Ike's surge did in relativity to its wind speed?
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Quoting JasonRE:
So the GOM is done for seeing storms this year?


Always in motion the future is.
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No great shock, EPac's got a TD, it appears:

invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep112012.ren
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Quoting JasonRE:
So the GOM is done for seeing storms this year?
i would not go that far yet maybe by nov 1st if if don't see anything then it could be done

there is 80 days of the season left

lots can happen in 80 days
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
Something for a few bloggers to keep in mind.

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Quoting Stats56:
CyberTeddy is making a very good point.

Ike was "only a Cat 2" thought many on Bolivar peninsula. Despite warnings of a Cat 4 storm surge, many stayed and died for that reason

I believe the folks that stayed Bolivar Peninsula would have stayed on matter what the category. I have relatives who have lived over there since the 1920's. They left because they could tell the surge was going to be bad simply for the fact of how high the tide had gotten while the storm was so far out in the Gulf. They definitely mad a good move.
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So the GOM is done for seeing storms this year?
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TROPICAL UPDATE
_________________________________

Tropical Storm Nadine

click for BIGGER pic...
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Quoting lobdelse81:
Anyone think that next year's hurricane season will feature some big threats for the US? Some are saying that we may have full El Nino conditions by then which would give us a more tranquil season like 2006 or 2009, unlike this year where the atmosphere seems to be lagging behind for El Nino conditions. Maybe 2014 is the year to look out for.


Rather impossible to say.

Still think we're not done yet with this season in terms of threats, as everything to me is starting to point towards increased chances of development in the SW Caribbean towards the end of September or early October. We shall see.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hmm..


I see an EYE!
Well, I think I see one on the latest image.
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Quoting lobdelse81:
Anyone think that next year's hurricane season will feature some big threats for the US? Some are saying that we may have full El Nino conditions by then which would give us a more tranquil season like 2006 or 2009, unlike this year where the atmosphere seems to be lagging behind for El Nino conditions. Maybe 2014 is the year to look out for.

Sea Surface Temperatures are going to start cooling in a month or two...back to Neutral at least. There will be no El Nino for next year's hurricane season. As for potential impact, there is no way we will be able to know until we're through the winter and see what the mean NAO phase among a bunch of other things.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

Fish, Cody.

Fish.

You gonna be in chat later with BeanTech???

No.
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Anyone think that next year's hurricane season will feature some big threats for the US? Some are saying that we may have full El Nino conditions by then which would give us a more tranquil season like 2006 or 2009, unlike this year where the atmosphere seems to be lagging behind for El Nino conditions. Maybe 2014 is the year to look out for.
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Hmm..

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Quoting CybrTeddy:







Again I reiterate, that mindset you're taking is why we need a new scale. Normal category 1 hurricanes can't produce this, and the reason Isaac didn't intensify was the same reason Ike didn't - it's pressures got so low that the wind field expanded, increasing surge, which may I remind you is THE number one reason for deaths in a tropical cyclone, water. Other than winds, Isaac might have well been a major hurricane as the storm surge it was producing was equal to one, same with the pressure. And plus, there was still even quite a bit of damage from winds as it where because Isaac pretty much crawled across Louisiana as a hurricane, giving a lot of people periods of high end TS to low end Hurricane winds.
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CyberTeddy is making a very good point.

Ike was "only a Cat 2" thought many on Bolivar peninsula. Despite warnings of a Cat 4 storm surge, many stayed and died for that reason

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Good luck with that. Doc Master's is too busy spearheading the AWG movement.


Well, most of the Doc's posts are on tropical weather as it is, as that's how most of the attention towards his blog is directed too. You'll never see a GW post get 7,000 comments like you did during Isaac.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:



Why don't you start an organization? Perhaps a website? A movement? Be a pioneer. If you really feel so strong about something, go out there. Make a different. That's what I tell the AWG folks but they would rather sit here all day thinking they are making a difference.

Ted, with all due respect, I have to agree with the revisions needed to get a new scale in place that takes into account the storm surge better.

But you're on to something. Let's get this is place!


I wish I had that kind of time to do that lol. Maybe if I worked in the NHC I'd try to put emphasis on a new scale, one that is very simple for the public to understand and easy for the NHC to apply to advisories, personally I'd call it the 'Cyclone Hazard Danger scale' or something like that. But no one's going to listen to a guy without a met degree, it would have to be someone like Dr. Masters to start making the hopes for a new scale during an interview on TWC.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Still though, people are going to look at a Category 1 producing 15 feet of storm surge as 'no big deal'. The whole SSHS needs to be replaced, as the dynamics of destruction in a hurricane are far from exact as a category.

For example, let's say Isaac is producing 80 mph winds, let's give that a 1.5 out of 5 rating for danger, then let's give Isaac's surge a 3 out of 5, and rainfall a 3 out of 5. Add those totals up and divide them by 3, you get an average rating of 2.5/5. People might take that more seriously than *only* a Category 1.

That's me thinking aloud of course, as there is far more dynamics that go into it but you get the general idea.
what they are NOT putting into this new data, is HOW much damage is going to occur, with 20 inches of rain and water up to the roof tops from flooding..20 inches of rain is more than 20 feet..of water on the ground..they need to tell people how dangerous the rainfall totals will be,storm surge and winds are only part of the devastating effects from any tropical system, no matter what the category of the storm is...people hear cat-1 or just a tropical storm and they ignore the warnings..........tell them..20 inches of rain is coming and the water will be up to your roof..THEN they will listen
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38107
Post 521. NCHurricane09
In short...yes...that's what makes Nadine ultimately turn eastward late in the forecast. I did my usual daily (and detialed) blog update released in the last hour...which details the forecast of Nadine and all the other stuff currently in the Atlantic....

That swirl to the NE of Nadine I think is ex-Isaac....believe it or not. I've been tracking it in the last several days worth of charts that I have been posting on my blog....


I'm not sure what information you're using, but according to NCHurricane09, it is ex-Isaac.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Oh you're just posting all that to be PC and get all the plus votes. Seen this story before. Nothing new.

The fact of the matter is there has not been greater than a category 1 storm to impact the CONUS all year, with the more intense storms (Michael the Major) staying way out to see.

That, my friend, is a fact.


Oh you caught me, how silly and obvious it was, I'm clearly posting for pluses on my post.

I'm posting that because I'm tired of the mindset that it has to be a Category 3 to do any damage. Heck there hasn't been a Category 2 even strike the USA since Hurricane Ike, because all these *super* Category 1's keep on developing. Irene at landfall and Isaac to name examples.

Do I care that hurricanes are recurving? No. If you have any interest in tropical cyclones you'd still track them, because I love seeing them out to sea. Besides, other countries have been pounded while we sit here *unscathed*. In 2007, we saw two Category 5 hurricanes hit Central America, two. In 2008, we saw Cuba get hit with 3 major hurricanes a tropical storm, Fay, Gustav, Ike, and Paloma. In 2010, we saw Alex, Karl, Matthew, Igor all cause major damage to both Canada and Mexico. I'd rather those storms all had somehow gone out to sea than what they did.
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with all the rain we were getting this summer, I am not surprised to see this.lets hope they are right..I love snow!

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


whatever...It's becoming el nino anyway...

It may or it may not. The CFS model shows cooling before peaking just under 1C, and this is with a warm bias (It had us at near 2C for September at the beginning of the season). We will have to see.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"NHC has recognized the importance of storm surge since our inception and has been a
part of several significant advances in forecasting storm surge. Currently, the NHC is
experimenting with two new approaches intended to help communities prepare for and
respond to surge threats. The first is the application of a Storm Surge Warning, which
would be issued by the National Weather Service to highlight exclusively the
expectation of life-threatening surge. The second is an easy-to-understand highresolution map showing the forecast inundation from storm surge. Both approaches are
being developed with input from communications and social science experts to
maximize the clarity and utility of the new products.
The new approaches to surge are being designed to reinforce instructions from local
emergency managers. We cannot overstate the importance of following evacuation
orders and other instructions from local officials, regardless of the category or strength
of a tropical storm or hurricane. Ignoring evacuation orders risks not only the lives of
those who stay behind, but also the lives of first responders who may be called upon to
rescue them."


Still though, people are going to look at a Category 1 producing 15 feet of storm surge as 'no big deal'. The whole SSHS needs to be replaced, as the dynamics of destruction in a hurricane are far from exact as a category.

For example, let's say Isaac is producing 80 mph winds, let's give that a 1.5 out of 5 rating for danger, then let's give Isaac's surge a 3 out of 5, and rainfall a 3 out of 5. Add those totals up and divide them by 3, you get an average rating of 2.5/5. People might take that more seriously than *only* a Category 1.

That's me thinking aloud of course, as there is far more dynamics that go into it but you get the general idea.
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636. JLPR2
Looking good...



Though I wish it were more or less 1,000miles to the west. XD Even though I studied for my finance test I still feel it's going to kick my behind. :\
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Incorrect.

"ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*"
"The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific is near average."


whatever...It's becoming el nino anyway...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

yes it is...

Incorrect.

"ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*"
"The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific is near average."
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Quoting CybrTeddy:







Again I reiterate, that mindset you're taking is why we need a new scale. Normal category 1 hurricanes can't produce this, and the reason Isaac didn't intensify was the same reason Ike didn't - it's pressures got so low that the wind field expanded, increasing surge, which may I remind you is THE number one reason for deaths in a tropical cyclone, water. Other than winds, Isaac might have well been a major hurricane as the storm surge it was producing was equal to one, same with the pressure. And plus, there was still even quite a bit of damage from winds as it where because Isaac pretty much crawled across Louisiana as a hurricane, giving a lot of people periods of high end TS to low end Hurricane winds.

"NHC has recognized the importance of storm surge since our inception and has been a
part of several significant advances in forecasting storm surge. Currently, the NHC is
experimenting with two new approaches intended to help communities prepare for and
respond to surge threats. The first is the application of a Storm Surge Warning, which
would be issued by the National Weather Service to highlight exclusively the
expectation of life-threatening surge. The second is an easy-to-understand highresolution map showing the forecast inundation from storm surge. Both approaches are
being developed with input from communications and social science experts to
maximize the clarity and utility of the new products.
The new approaches to surge are being designed to reinforce instructions from local
emergency managers. We cannot overstate the importance of following evacuation
orders and other instructions from local officials, regardless of the category or strength
of a tropical storm or hurricane. Ignoring evacuation orders risks not only the lives of
those who stay behind, but also the lives of first responders who may be called upon to
rescue them."
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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