Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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Quoting weatherbro:
I think the GFS has a powerful extra-tropical system that forms in the GOM and then heads up the east coast as a powerful Nor'easter next weekend!

If that were to happen, prepare for some wild weather. Followed by a big cool-down!

But I'm not buying that extreme solution. It's too early for troughs to amplify that much! Heck if that were true, Orlando would probably be in the low-mid 70's despite full sunshine by the 23ed-25th of September!


I hope you're right; hubby is getting impatient & wants to work a storm this season (getting tired of the usual pole swap outs & building lines for turbines stuff).

Supposed to be 90 degrees in Minneapolis today, but should be the last 90 we see for a long time. (Figures that I decided today would be the day I can salsa. Doh!)
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Quoting sar2401:

OK, did that. Went through the first three pages and they were all papers about how, in theory, adding aluminum nanoparticles to jet or diesel fuel might increase the burning efficiency of these fuels. None of them mentioned anything about using them for some kind of weather modification. If you have a link which shows that aluminum nanoparticle fuels exist and are currently being used in jet fuel for the primary purpose of weather modification, post it. If not, I'll assume this is all speculation on your part.


This link is to a 1991 patent by Hughes Aircraft for seeding the stratosphere with aluminum to reduce global warming. There's a fine line between using aluminum to enhance the burning of jet fuel and Geoengineering. Geoengineering on a small scale produces local weather modification. It is cheap and totally feasible and all you have to do is look up at the sky and watch it happen.


http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=P TO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch- bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=PTXT&s1=%22Strato spheric+Welsbach+Seeding+Reduction+Global+Warming%2 2&OS=
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how cold is the 564 line on the GFS??
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4470
And here...



Goodnight all.
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St. John's

WIND WARNING ENDED
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENDED
71 F
Observed at: St. John's Int'l Airport
Date: 2:30 PM NDT Tuesday 11 September 2012
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.47 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 71.4F
Dewpoint: 61.7F
Humidity: 71 %
Wind: WSW 24 gust 36 mph
Humidex: 80
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53540
And here...

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Quoting wxmod:
china weather modification site:edu

copy and paste this into your search engine


Everything modifies weather.

Solar farms and wind farms modify weather.

PV farms have lower albedo, and are only 10% efficient, so if you put them in the desert they will lower the Albedo by about 20 points, but will only absorb 10 or 11 of that back as electricity, so the net temperature forcing will increase by about 10% of the solar constant per area covered.

Boiler farms are 30% efficient, and have much less black space, meaning they actually maintain the net Albedo of the region, and capture 30% as electricity, but they create a lot of heat waste which is released through water vapor, yet this is obviously far cleaner than any non-solar boiler technology.


Wind farms alter weather through changing turbulence in the region.

Cities alter weather because the tall buildings disrupt winds, even without counting the "heat island effect".


Landscaping, canals, and ditches modify weather by modifying the hydrology of the land, making water drain off faster, etc.

When you boil a pot of water for noodles you alter the humidity and air temperature, which modifies the weather.
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Leslie was here....


Click for link.
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Quoting wxmod:
aluminum nanoparticle fuel site:edu

copy and paste this into your search engine

OK, did that. Went through the first three pages and they were all papers about how, in theory, adding aluminum nanoparticles to jet or diesel fuel might increase the burning efficiency of these fuels. None of them mentioned anything about using them for some kind of weather modification. If you have a link which shows that aluminum nanoparticle fuels exist and are currently being used in jet fuel for the primary purpose of weather modification, post it. If not, I'll assume this is all speculation on your part.
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weather modification jet site:edu

copy and paste this into your search engine
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Quoting reedzone:
Never Forgotten....


I lived in the North Bay area of San Francisco. I was having my last cup of coffee before leaving for a meeting in SF, watching the market open on CNBC when the news started coming across. I thought is must be a terrible accident until I saw the second plane. No meetings that day. All sorts of crazy rumors were flying...there was going to be an attack on the Golden Gate Bridge, a plane was seen flying towards the Transamerica pyramid building...no one knew what was really going on, but we were all scared. I was a reserve deputy sheriff and we were all activated about an hour after the Towers collapsed. Our sheriff decided that the dam at Lake Sonoma was a target and should be guarded. My partner and I were sent up there at 1800 and told to watch for terrorists. I asked what a terrorist looked like and was told no one knew but that we were to shoot anyone that attempted to get to the dam. It's 300 feet high and 3,000 feet long and would take a nuclear weapon to damage it. No matter, orders were orders, so we sat on top of that dam all night with locked and loaded AR-15's, waiting for the attack.

It was a beautiful, clear, warm night, and there were no sounds except the breeze. No planes in the air, nothing but a huge blanket of stars. It was the most surreal experience of my life. RIP to all that lost their lives that day. I know I'll never forget.
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Quoting 7544:


notice that but will it do a recurve ?


With that kind of trough you betcha!!!
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65. 7544
Quoting unknowncomic:
GFS consistently showing something visiting the PR area around 9/27.(Of course subject to change).


notice that but will it do a recurve ?
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aluminum nanoparticle fuel site:edu

copy and paste this into your search engine
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.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Now this is a deep trough at 360 hrs. with 2 storms in the Caribbean.



nice!!!!!
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GFS consistently showing something visiting the PR area around 9/27.(Of course subject to change).
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Quoting jeffs713:
Al2O3 nanoparticles, eh? Do you have any proof of this? Aside from any conspiracy websites, that is. Last time I checked, a byproduct of hydrocarbon production is water vapor, so no need for nanoparticles. Also, why over Russia? Who is responsible? Why can't we see them turning in the little pattern? Why not make a box, or just keep the nanoparticles spraying constantly once at altitude?


Why do you seem angry about me showing this satellite photo of jets dispersing aluminum oxide? I have posted links to studies and patents of this technology from government and edu websites here many times. I think you have even acknowledged seeing them before. I don't ever post things from conspiracy websites and I haven't even looked at conspiracy websites. I don't have time. Everything I look at is .gov or .edu. or power and water company websites.
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12Z GFS wow that Cold for FL two!!


Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4470
This is the GFS at 120hrs.




Although it's not as aggressive as the Euro, it does show all three named or borderline named systems.

Since the GFS is almost certainly low-balling intensity, it is highly likely (compared to most model runs,) that these will all be named systems.


Even the Canadian is hinting at 2 or 3 tropical or sub-tropical type lows within just a few days:

132hrs



144hrs

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Quoting RTSplayer:


Most recent GFS kills it within 12 to 24, and pretty much has scattered showers and disorganized storms moving around in the Gulf for the entire run.


Euro moved a 1009mb low from west to east near texas to south of Louisiana on 144hrs, and then must have had "landfall" between 144hrs and 168hrs as either a TD or weak TS...in LA, MS, AL region for apparent landfall.

Also appears to have as many as 3 other "named" systems in the Atlantic about this time.


144



168



NAM agrees with the concepts of the lows seen in the Euro in the same regions, but not in the details.



After the way every model missed Michael until it was formed, you can't dismiss any blob that has potential
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Just checking in before school. I see we have our 14th TD now.
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Quoting sar2401:

Really? I was a consultant working for the largest utility on the west coast. My primary job was project management in the hydro division. I was responsible for overall coordination of every project for 12 years. We produced almost 40% of our revenue from hydro power. Not once did I ever see any evidence the company, or anyone else, for that matter, was engaged in any weather modification activity. What evidence do you have for such a broad and sweeping assertion?


Dude... his handle is WXmod. Pretty obvious why he's here.
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Now this is a deep trough at 360 hrs. with 2 storms in the Caribbean.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Euro and CMC onto the solution of a gulf low in 120-200 days, but weak though...

I'd wait for more model support.

I'm hoping to study it more when im not in school


you need to edit that from days to hrs
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Euro and CMC onto the solution of a gulf low in 120-200 hours, but weak though...

I'd wait for more model support.

I'm hoping to study it more when im not in school
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Quoting wxmod:


There is no government conspiracy here and no need for tin foil hats. This is a satellite photo and nothing more. The stringy clouds are the result of flying jets over an area with aluminum oxide nanoparticles mixed with their fuel. This is a common practice and can be done by anyone with money. Power companies try to make it rain on the watersheds with hydroelectric dams. Municipal water districts try to increase rainfall on their watersheds so they can sell the water at a high price to water users. This happens all over the place these days.

Really? I was a consultant working for the largest utility on the west coast. My primary job was project management in the hydro division. I was responsible for overall coordination of every project for 12 years. We produced almost 40% of our revenue from hydro power. Not once did I ever see any evidence the company, or anyone else, for that matter, was engaged in any weather modification activity. What evidence do you have for such a broad and sweeping assertion?
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Ok, after looking at the Euro, most of it seems "reasonable".

between 120 and 168 hours it develops a borderline Depression/TS and landfalls in the central gulf coast.

It develops a "pop-up" depression/TS in the NW atlantic off the east coast of N. Carolina and Virgina.

It develops the existing TD into a TS and hurricane.

It develops a tropical or "sub-tropical" type low over the NE atlantic. I think they're no longer using that terminology, but oh well. I guess it can't be "post-tropical" if it was never "tropical" in the first place.


The NAM did not develop the eastern-most storm.

It did develop the Gulf storm but must move it west somehow or kill it right away.

It did develop the pop-up depression, but farther to the east.


The GFS is much less agressive on all of the system's intensities, but then again, GFS has been low-balling intensity all year long, in spite of being by far the best on storm tracks this year. So maybe we should just subtract 5 to 10mb off the GFS for each of these systems and see what we get, which is what I was doing for adjustments on intensity forecasts earlier.


Anyway, it looks like we're about to get another 2 to 4 named systems during the next 7 days.
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unexpected addition to my iggy list this morning... hey blogger, you post well when it comes to weather, but your high horse soap box rants are waaaay over the top, and fairly incendiary for this particular date. let's use some restraint and tact please!!
thank you for the updates Dr. M!
interesting to see that little swirl of Michael juxtaposed to the mass of Leslie :)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
12z GFS 180 hrs.


Strong trough in the great lakes, great. New wave/TD in that run with Nadine still going.
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Thank you Dr. Masters, I see we got TD14 and forecasted to beome a hurricane.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Most recent GFS kills it within 12 to 24, and pretty much has scattered showers and disorganized storms moving around in the Gulf for the entire run.


Euro moved a 1009mb low from west to east near texas to south of Louisiana on 144hrs, and then must have had "landfall" between 144hrs and 168hrs as either a TD or weak TS...in LA, MS, AL region for apparent landfall.

Also appears to have as many as 3 other "named" systems in the Atlantic about this time.


144



168



NAM agrees with the concepts of the lows seen in the Euro in the same regions, but not in the details.


Ah, those crazy models are having fun again. :) A weak TS would be a good thing for TX, so let's hope that actually happens.
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.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
12z GFS 180 hrs.

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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Beautiful weather here. A typical late summer day. Ahhhhhhhh....


If this was a typical late summer day in Houston, it would be 95, 90% humidity, a heat index of 105-110, light SE breeze, 20% chance of toad-strangling rain, 75 for a low, and a 100% chance of feeling miserable while outside.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Quoting jeffs713:

Oh, look! clouds in a straight line! Must be a government conspiracy to modify the weather and control our minds!

To the tin foil hats!


There is no government conspiracy here and no need for tin foil hats. This is a satellite photo and nothing more. The stringy clouds are the result of flying jets over an area with aluminum oxide nanoparticles mixed with their fuel. This is a common practice and can be done by anyone with money. Power companies try to make it rain on the watersheds with hydroelectric dams. Municipal water districts try to increase rainfall on their watersheds so they can sell the water at a high price to water users. This happens all over the place these days.
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Quoting elvette:
Might be of interest in a couple of days time



Most recent GFS kills it within 12 to 24, and pretty much has scattered showers and disorganized storms moving around in the Gulf for the entire run.


Euro moved a 1009mb low from west to east near texas to south of Louisiana on 144hrs, and then must have had "landfall" between 144hrs and 168hrs as either a TD or weak TS...in LA, MS, AL region for apparent landfall.

Also appears to have as many as 3 other "named" systems in the Atlantic about this time.


144



168



NAM agrees with the concepts of the lows seen in the Euro in the same regions, but not in the details.

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Leslie and Michael, far left, will be moisturizing Europe (right).
MODIS today

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Might be of interest in a couple of days time

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Quoting reedzone:


You personally know Michael W. Smith??? Wow!


Yeah, I guy a grew up with made it big in the Christian music industry and they just got married this past weekend over in Franklin, Tennessee
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I think the GFS has a powerful extra-tropical system that forms in the GOM and then heads up the east coast as a powerful Nor'easter next weekend!

If that were to happen, prepare for some wild weather. Followed by a big cool-down!

But I'm not buying that extreme solution. It's too early for troughs to amplify that much! Heck if that were true, Orlando would probably be in the low-mid 70's despite full sunshine by the 23ed-25th of September!
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Derived from NHC's 11Sept.12pm ATCF data for PostTropicalStormLeslie & TropicalStormMichael
CWRW-FourchuHead :: CWEJ-Marystown :: YQX-Gander :: YYT-St.John's :: JNN-Nanortalik
All times in GMT
On 11Sept.10:42am, Leslie made landfall upon Lawn,Newfoundland, and heading toward Greenland

Copy&paste cwrw, 44.0n57.3w-47.7n55.1w, 44.0n57.3w-46.904n55.599w, cwej,yqx, 36.4n60.8w-38.5n59.8w, 38.5n59.8w-41.1n58.6w, 41.1n58.6w-44.0n57.3w, 44.0n57.3w-47.7n55.1w, yyt,jnn, 33.5n45.9w-34.0n47.1w, 34.0n47.1w-34.8n47.8w, 34.8n47.8w-36.4n47.8w, 36.4n47.8w-38.2n47.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and more information
The previous mapping of Leslie and Michael
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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