Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, it's going to get cold for many:





Fall is on the way.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can't wait for cold weather to come.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
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Quoting Skyepony:


Most of the seeding for hydroelectric has been more in the midwest. Look at the companies that preform the services.

Check out Weather Modification International.. They've been seeding for cash since the mid '80s.

The proven success of Weather Modification, Inc., in atmospheric and weather operations is evident by our lengthy and impressive client listing speaks for itself. Our reputation for successful cloud seeding and meteorological services leads our veteran pilots, experienced meteorologists and radar engineers around the world. Our valued clients include private and public insurance companies, water resource management organizations, as well as federal and state government research organizations.

Go to this link & scroll down to check out the projects. Not all is cloud seeding but alot is. Click on them for more details. They even helped verify our beloved CLOUDSAT.

This is just one of many companies.

Skye, I'm well aware of Weather Modification Inc. We had a bad drought in California during the early 90's and, along with the State Water Agency, we were asked to evaluate WMI's past projects to see if local cloud seeding could help fill out reservoirs. They had a good sales pitch but, after examining their record and talking to some other agenice that used their services, it turns out most of the cloud seeding projects were miserable failures. The results were either no rain or too much rain, and the outcome was unpredicatable in either direction. If you look at the dates of WMI's projects, they are mostly in 70's though the 90's, when it seemed like local weather modification might work. Most of the time, it didn't. WMI's main sources of revenue now are radar and telemetry.

My point is that there's a vast difference between attempting weather modification on a local basis and adding nanoparticles to jet fuel so that airliners can fly around the world and do who knows what, if anything, to the weather. Local weather modification is still an ongoing experiment. I have seen no reliable evidence that global weather modification is underway using commercial jet airliners.
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Wow, it's going to get cold for many:





Fall is on the way.
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Another one heading for the Koreas...



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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Now this is a deep trough at 360 hrs. with 2 storms in the Caribbean.



If that isn't any indication of what's to come for winter I don't know what is.
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What was the most rainfall in one year in west palm beach???
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Cool. I would think it'd have had to take a very lucky route through the mountain passes to take it all the way to Santa Ana being the Coachella Valley is surrounded by them to the north, east and west(and watching the animation it does look like it did). Maybe a return gift for the smog that rolls into the Coachella Valley from the LA basin! I remember watching the big brown cloud flow through the pass and cover the valley in the afternoons...blech!

Poor old Salton Sea though. Was once also a great lake called Cahuilla in the location, can see the bath tub rings on the mountains around the Salton Sea from where the lake level was...really creepy!
Yeah it does appear quite unusual.

Also interesting reading about Lake Cahuilla. Apparently it was a massive freshwater lake over 100 miles long and 30 miles wide created when the Colorado River decided to take a different path to the sea. I can't imagine what that would look like, but it sounds like an ideal oasis in the desert.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


you mean 1942... the Japs shelled us, bombed us and ballooned us.
I thought that too but he said mainland, so I guess it is since the 1800's. Can't think of any other conflict.
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Year to date precipitation 62.16 in WPB!! and today i got 1.77 of a inch!!!!
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Quoting indianrivguy:


you mean 1942... the Japs shelled us, bombed us and ballooned us.


Yes, its interesting to think that 9/11 will be in 60 years what Pearl Harbor Day is today.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. TD 14 is almost Nadine, we'll likely see it named at 11 barring any sudden decrease in convection:

Another one on the list of recurving fishes.That's boring.Welcome to the fish graveyard in North Atlantic.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
R.I.P. Michael:

AL, 13, 2012091118, , BEST, 0, 402N, 466W, 35, 1000, PT, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 20, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,
two in the same day Michael and Leslie wow.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4475
116. Kumo
Quoting wxmod:


This link is to a 1991 patent by Hughes Aircraft for seeding the stratosphere with aluminum to reduce global warming. There's a fine line between using aluminum to enhance the burning of jet fuel and Geoengineering. Geoengineering on a small scale produces local weather modification. It is cheap and totally feasible and all you have to do is look up at the sky and watch it happen.


http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=P TO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FP TO%2Fsearch- bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND& ;d=PTXT&s1=%22Strato spheric+Welsbach+Seeding+Reduction+Global+Warming%2 2&OS=


Quote from the website: "A method is described for reducing atmospheric or global warming resulting from the presence of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, i.e., from the greenhouse effect. Such gases are relatively transparent to sunshine, but absorb strongly the long-wavelength infrared radiation released by the earth. The method incudes the step of seeding the layer of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere with particles of materials characterized by wavelength-dependent emissivity. Such materials include Welsbach materials and the oxides of metals which have high emissivity (and thus low reflectivities) in the visible and 8-12 micron infrared wavelength regions."

Essentially they are talking about using Global Dimming to combat Accelerated Global Warming.
The major issue from this is that it is only a temporary fix and it masks the effects rising CO2 levels. In truth we would just be compounding the problem.

BBC produced a very good documentary on GD, it's 49 minutes long but well worth a look. Link
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Michael has been the best TC in the Atlantic so far on this 2012 season. From a little swirl it became a powerhouse system that got good ACE numbers.(16.035)
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Tropics = Boring

Fall Severe Weather Season = Fun

Snow Season = Fun


Who is with me?!?!?!

First up is this uneventful looking shortwave:


Then this nice trough in almost 8 days going negative:


And then this fantasy land trough:


We shall see what happens!!!!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
R.I.P. Michael:

AL, 13, 2012091118, , BEST, 0, 402N, 466W, 35, 1000, PT, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 20, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,


Bye lil' guy...will miss you out there!
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Due to our 2 1/2 year widening of North Roosevelt(US1) and

Link

the Key West Extended Forecast calls for "Rolling Thunder" thru local neighborhoods mid afternoon Thursday thru Sunday night.

10,000 Harleys on a 2 mile island.
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Quoting TomTaylor:


Interesting story Skye, thanks for the article. Interestingly enough, I remember tracking the outflow boundary/gust front two nights ago, noting it's unusual size since we rarely see such strong thunderstorms out here in the desert Southwest. Below I created a little GIF loop of the dying MCS and resulting outflow boundary. The associated reflectivity from the outflow boundary can be seen moving across the Salton Sea (peanut shaped lake over Southern California at the bottom of the map) and then continuing northwest towards Santa Ana (though it did produce scattered convection along the way). By the time it reaches Santa Ana, however, the gust front is gone which likely allowed the stinky parcel of air to stall and slowly dissipate over the surrounding area.



Cool. I would think it'd have had to take a very lucky route through the mountain passes to take it all the way to Santa Ana being the Coachella Valley is surrounded by them to the north, east and west(and watching the animation it does look like it did). Maybe a return gift for the smog that rolls into the Coachella Valley from the LA basin! I remember watching the big brown cloud flow through the pass and cover the valley in the afternoons...blech!

Poor old Salton Sea though. Was once also a great lake called Cahuilla in the location, can see the bath tub rings on the mountains around the Salton Sea from where the lake level was...really creepy!
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Looking forward to getting the tail ends of Leslie and Michael here in Scotland (not!). Though it looks like Leslie's going to go north, hook round and hit the east coast this time. West coast people here have gotten the tail ends of a few 'canes and TSs this summer, so this is a break - but I'm sure we'll meet with a few more by the end of the season, esp. since most disturbances this summer seem to be fish storms (Isaac excepted).
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Good afternoon. TD 14 is almost Nadine, we'll likely see it named at 11 barring any sudden decrease in convection:

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With Michael no longer tropical, if Nadine isn't a tropical storm by the 1700 TWO, that will be the first outlook without a named storm in the Atlantic since the 1100 TWO on August 21. Over that period, the tally has been 5-4-1.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14244
Quoting HurricaneDan:


Here's a tracking map you can use, I made it myself!



Click for full resolution 3200x1600 image
Nice, then you can save it and print it on any weight of paper you choose. I like the one our weather station handed out. That was a couple of years ago during an open house at the weather station. Still haven't used it. Maybe next year :)
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Quoting Skyepony:
SANTA ANA, Calif. (AP) - A strong rotten egg smell had Southern Californians plugging their noses and crying foul Monday as air quality investigators scrambled to determine if the sulfurous scent was coming from the Salton Sea.

Investigators from the South Coast Air Quality Management District spread investigators all over the region in an attempt to track the stench after being flooded with 200 complaints since midnight from across much of the district's 10,000 square miles, said Barry Wallerstein, executive for the agency.

Wallerstein said "several factors" indicate the odor could be coming from the Salton Sea, a 376-square-mile saltwater lake about 150 miles southeast of Los Angeles, but there is no definitive evidence yet of this or any other cause.

"The odor was extremely intense," said Janis Dawson of the Salton Sea Authority. "We actually thought that somebody had an accident, a broken sewage main, that's how strong it was."

The dying sea, a major resting stop for migrating birds on the Pacific Flyway, has been plagued by increasing salinity. Created in 1905 when floodwaters broke through a Colorado River irrigation canal, it's expected to shrink significantly by 2018 and become even saltier.

The sea had a fish die-off within the past week and that, combined with strong storms in the area late Sunday, could have churned up the water and unleashed bacteria from the sea floor that caused the stench, said Dawson.

The massive thunderstorm complex moved from Mexico over the area Sunday night, with wind gusts up to 60 mph and widespread dust storms.


Interesting story Skye, thanks for the article. Interestingly enough, I remember tracking the outflow boundary/gust front two nights ago, noting it's unusual size since we rarely see such strong thunderstorms out here in the desert Southwest. Below I created a little GIF loop of the dying MCS and resulting outflow boundary. The associated reflectivity from the outflow boundary can be seen moving across the Salton Sea (peanut shaped lake over Southern California at the bottom of the map) and then continuing northwest towards Santa Ana (though it did produce scattered convection along the way). By the time it reaches Santa Ana, however, the gust front is gone which likely allowed the stinky parcel of air to stall and slowly dissipate over the surrounding area.

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R.I.P. Michael:

AL, 13, 2012091118, , BEST, 0, 402N, 466W, 35, 1000, PT, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 20, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14244
Quoting Skyepony:


Most of the seeding for hydroelectric has been more in the midwest. Look at the companies that preform the services.

Check out Weather Modification International.. They've been seeding for cash since the mid '80s.

The proven success of Weather Modification, Inc., in atmospheric and weather operations is evident by our lengthy and impressive client listing speaks for itself. Our reputation for successful cloud seeding and meteorological services leads our veteran pilots, experienced meteorologists and radar engineers around the world. Our valued clients include private and public insurance companies, water resource management organizations, as well as federal and state government research organizations.

Go to this link & scroll down to check out the projects. Not all is cloud seeding but alot is. Click on them for more details. They even helped verify our beloved CLOUDSAT.

This is just one of many companies.
Skye, I think we all know that cloud seeding does happen. The guy he was answering seems to see it as a secret government conspiracy. I couldn't stand his rantings way back when and had to ignore him just to give myself peace. Not every contrail in the sky is the government "secretly" modifying the weather. I even have a friend who brings up the old urban legend that the gov't caused a hurricane from seeding. Totally ridiculous.
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18z Best Track remains as TD.


AL, 14, 2012091118, , BEST, 0, 171N, 433W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M
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18z Best Track for 90E.

EP, 90, 2012091118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1036W, 25, 1008, LO
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99. JLPR
I'm at a public computer at my university. It's interesting how I remember the password for my old account but forgot the one of my regular one. XD
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Number 14 looking pretty good at this hour.
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Convection taking hold over the center of our new depression.

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Quoting Skyepony:


Most of the seeding for hydroelectric has been more in the midwest. Look at the companies that preform the services.

Check out Weather Modification International.. They've been seeding for cash since the mid '80s.

The proven success of Weather Modification, Inc., in atmospheric and weather operations is evident by our lengthy and impressive client listing speaks for itself. Our reputation for successful cloud seeding and meteorological services leads our veteran pilots, experienced meteorologists and radar engineers around the world. Our valued clients include private and public insurance companies, water resource management organizations, as well as federal and state government research organizations.

Go to this link & scroll down to check out the projects. Not all is cloud seeding but alot is. Click on them for more details. They even helped verify our beloved CLOUDSAT.

This is just one of many companies.

Sky, they are about to start doing cloud seeding in the Philippines cause some places are in drought.
From GMA News,

Agriculture Dept. starts seeding clouds to head off El Nino.

A month after addressing the damage caused by enhanced monsoon rains in August, the Department of Agriculture (DA) is taking on an entirely different tack seeding clouds with sodium solution or salt to induce rain against an expected dry spell.

DA-Region 7 director Angel Enriquez said in a phone interview with GMA News Online that they have conducted cloud-seeding operations in Bohol, which has experienced the first bout of the drought.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its August 15 advisory warned that the effects of El Nino may start from August to October.

Initial impact of the likely developing El Nino during September is below normal rainfall condition in the eastern portions of Northern and Central Luzon, including Palawan, some portions of Western and Central Visayas and Western Mindanao, PAGASA said in its advisory.

In Bohol, average rainfall slumped to 6.8 millimeters so far this year compared to a yearly average of 138 mm in the past three years, Enriquez told GMA News Online.

The cloud seeding operations which started August 30 brought rains over the towns of Sierra Bulllones, Pilar and Alicia, Enriquez added.

All the dams are now at normal levels. So there is nothing to worry about, the Agriculture official.

She cited Malinao dam in Pilar, Bohol, which went back to its normal level of 151 meters after hitting critical level at 146 meters.

Bayungan dam in San Miguel was also back at 45 meters from a critical 42 meters, as well as Capayas dam in Ubay at 35 meters from 31 meters, Enriquez.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


what does it mean?

It will mean less coordination and less people on the grown, also less experience in fighting bush and grass fires.
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I spy the start of a convective burst, leading to Nadine possibly.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
* BREAKING NEWS *
The Queensland Rural Fire Service was dealt a cruel blow by the Newman QLD Government this afternoon with the Axing of 45 uniform positions and the closing of 5 area offices across the State. The news comes ahead of possibly one of the worst bush / grass fire seasons in 50 years.


what does it mean?
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90. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:

Really? I was a consultant working for the largest utility on the west coast. My primary job was project management in the hydro division. I was responsible for overall coordination of every project for 12 years. We produced almost 40% of our revenue from hydro power. Not once did I ever see any evidence the company, or anyone else, for that matter, was engaged in any weather modification activity. What evidence do you have for such a broad and sweeping assertion?


Most of the seeding for hydroelectric has been more in the midwest. Look at the companies that preform the services.

Check out Weather Modification International.. They've been seeding for cash since the mid '80s.

The proven success of Weather Modification, Inc., in atmospheric and weather operations is evident by our lengthy and impressive client listing speaks for itself. Our reputation for successful cloud seeding and meteorological services leads our veteran pilots, experienced meteorologists and radar engineers around the world. Our valued clients include private and public insurance companies, water resource management organizations, as well as federal and state government research organizations.

Go to this link & scroll down to check out the projects. Not all is cloud seeding but alot is. Click on them for more details. They even helped verify our beloved CLOUDSAT.

This is just one of many companies.
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Like my PR friend JLPR2 said in the last topic, we may finally get a relief toward the end of september. That would be some very welcomed and blessed rains. Though it remains to be seen...
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* BREAKING NEWS *
The Queensland Rural Fire Service was dealt a cruel blow by the Newman QLD Government this afternoon with the Axing of 45 uniform positions and the closing of 5 area offices across the State. The news comes ahead of possibly one of the worst bush / grass fire seasons in 50 years.
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Happy B-day Dr. Jeff!
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Quoting reedzone:
Never Forgotten....



Amen to that. It seems like yesterday. Hard to believe that it has been eleven years since that day in which almost 3000 people lost their lives. Lets all pay it forward and do something nice for someone else today. No matter how trivial it may seem, for that person it may be the last nice thing that happens to them. United we stand/Never forgotten. God bless the USA!
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Quoting wxmod:


This link is to a 1991 patent by Hughes Aircraft for seeding the stratosphere with aluminum to reduce global warming. There's a fine line between using aluminum to enhance the burning of jet fuel and Geoengineering. Geoengineering on a small scale produces local weather modification. It is cheap and totally feasible and all you have to do is look up at the sky and watch it happen.


http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=P TO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FP TO%2Fsearch- bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND& ;d=PTXT&s1=%22Strato spheric Welsbach Seeding Reduction Global Warming%2 2&OS=

A link to a 1991 patent for a process which isn't in use anywhere that I know of is the best you can do? There's also a fine line between reading too much on the net and jumping to conclusions.
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Quoting AegirsGal:
I was at work onboard NAS JRB Fort Worth and heard on the radio that the first tower had been hit.

I was in a data center in south Arlington mebbe 20 miles from you. On a conference call with a potential customer on the 90-somthingth floor. Heard the impact over the speaker phones. Rolled in a TV eventually. Had a father in our office talking to his son on the other end, conferenced in the son's wife. Pure chaos. Kept the line open until it dropped. Was hard to get anything done that day.
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Late in here today and I go straight off topic- sorry.

I have to start by taking a moment's silence to remember those from around the world who died on 9/11, died in subsequent attacks in Madrid and London and other locations, those from around the world who have died fighting the threat and their comrades in arms who continue to put their lives on the line to minimize the global terrorist threat.

Gone but not forgotten - I salute you.
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Quoting weatherbro:
I think the GFS has a powerful extra-tropical system that forms in the GOM and then heads up the east coast as a powerful Nor'easter next weekend!

If that were to happen, prepare for some wild weather. Followed by a big cool-down!

But I'm not buying that extreme solution. It's too early for troughs to amplify that much! Heck if that were true, Orlando would probably be in the low-mid 70's despite full sunshine by the 23ed-25th of September!


I hope you're right; hubby is getting impatient & wants to work a storm this season (getting tired of the usual pole swap outs & building lines for turbines stuff).

Supposed to be 90 degrees in Minneapolis today, but should be the last 90 we see for a long time. (Figures that I decided today would be the day I can salsa. Doh!)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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