Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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init 18z gfs 24 to 144 hour

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Something behind dt14 ? I think yes ;-)

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Quoting kwgirl:
I thought that too but he said mainland, so I guess it is since the 1800's. Can't think of any other conflict.


Nope, 1942 on the mainland, we were bombed, shelled and ballooned by the JapENESE

American Theater
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2634
Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon winter!.
you really like winter don`t you? I prefer Autumn myself.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Developing typhoon in the West Pacific:



As usual JTWC is being ridiculously conservative and went with 50mph as the intensity in their new advisory.


They are good at being absolutely ridiculous.

11/2032 UTC 12.4N 131.9E T3.5/3.5 SANBA -- West Pacific
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Developing typhoon in the West Pacific:



As usual JTWC is being ridiculously conservative and went with 50mph as the intensity in their new advisory.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
One of the GFS ensemble members is showing a storm south of Cuba, it originates from the SW Caribbean, just something to think about down the road, ......



Don't even whisper it please!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yep, west of the big trough and into Alaska will remain with above normal temperatures... as well as significantly above average precip in central and western AK, with dry conditions and a continued fire danger in the West and especially Northwest:


No! No more rain!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32801
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Looking at those images, Levi may have to join us down here to get any of the first of the Fall season.

Yep, west of the big trough and into Alaska will remain with above normal temperatures... as well as significantly above average precip in central and western AK, with dry conditions and a continued fire danger in the West and especially Northwest:

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90E in the East Pac:



It definitely needs to consolidate more before it becomes a TD.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, it's going to get cold for many:





Fall is on the way.


Looking at those images, Levi may have to join us down here to get any of the first of the Fall season.
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what's witht the sudden flare up in the gulf...I didn't think we were expecting anything to..well....flare up!
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The 1000 mb chart also shows near surface weather conditions. The parameters plotted are 1000 mb temperature in Celsius (in color contours), convergence (black lines, interval=2, shaded > 0), 1000 mb dewpoints in Celsius (colored lines, interval=5, bold orange=20, bold white=15, bold red=0, bold magenta=-15, bold gray=-30) and winds plotted as vectors

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
C'mon winter!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17793
Quoting flcanes:

cold front
jetstream winds 300mb
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The 700 mb chart shows the forecasted vertical velocities (colors), heights (bold white lines), temperature in Celsius (thin red lines) and wind vectors.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cold front
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The 300 mb chart shows the winds at the 300 mb level. The wind speeds are shown as color contours, the heights (bold white lines), temperatures in Celsius (thin red lines) and the vectors show wind direction and speed.

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Quoting prcane4you:
You make me cry.What a tragedy for mankind.
I know where this is going....So let just pull out my handy dandy ignore list and it'll do wonders for me.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17793
Quoting washingtonian115:
Bye Micheal.You were a fun storm to track and a huge achiever.You were the perfect storm.Strong,beautiful and peaceful out in no mans land.Unlike ugly a** Leslie.You'll be missed.
You make me cry.What a tragedy for mankind.
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156. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1441114:
Can any tv stations make a decent and USABLE tracking chart , none my tv stations chart are of any use , such as Ch. 28 in Tampa , they use poor quality of paper , CHEAP ! No matter if it is free , they should use better quality of paper , they should be ashamed of themselves . Every year I make mistakes on their junk of a tracking chart . Is there anybody who knows where I can get a better quality tracking chart for 2013 and years to come. If Denis Phillips is reading I hope he can remedy this MAJOR problem of theirs , because it is useless piece of trash.


Wunderground has a free printable hurricane tracking chart you could put on quality paper.
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TD 14 from 16.3 to 17.5 in just hours.What a jump.
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Bye Micheal.You were a fun storm to track and a huge achiever.You were the perfect storm.Strong,beautiful and peaceful out in no mans land.Unlike ugly a** Leslie.You'll be missed.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17793
152. Kumo
Quoting Kumo:


Quote from the website: "A method is described for reducing atmospheric or global warming resulting from the presence of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, i.e., from the greenhouse effect. Such gases are relatively transparent to sunshine, but absorb strongly the long-wavelength infrared radiation released by the earth. The method incudes the step of seeding the layer of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere with particles of materials characterized by wavelength-dependent emissivity. Such materials include Welsbach materials and the oxides of metals which have high emissivity (and thus low reflectivities) in the visible and 8-12 micron infrared wavelength regions."

Essentially they are talking about using Global Dimming to combat Accelerated Global Warming.
The major issue from this is that it is only a temporary fix and it masks the effects rising CO2 levels. In truth we would just be compounding the problem.

BBC produced a very good documentary on GD, it's 49 minutes long but well worth a look. Link


Update: I had not seen the video in the link that I posted in a while so I just got finished rewatching it. At the end of the program they suggest that we stop burning fossil fuels as a fix to the CO2 problem, but this is something you just can't realistically expect us to do. With commute times sometime over 2 hours, the vast majority of us cannot give up our dependable cars and trucks for a flimsy bicycle.

The answer in fact may lie in atmospheric CO2 removal to offset the amount we contribute to the amosphere. Link

The stuff is so inexpensive, we could use it in a wide range of applications. Link
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What was the most rainfall in one year in west palm beach???



Not sure, but here are the averages

Annual Precipitation
61.39 inches


January

3.75 inches


February

2.55 inches


March

3.68 inches


April

3.57 inches


May

5.39 inches


June

7.58 inches


July

5.97 inches


August

6.65 inches


September

8.1 inches


October

5.46 inches


November

5.55 inches


December

3.14 inches



Years Averaged

30 years



So currently about 50% above average - a lot, but not by an outrageous amount. I believe Broward and Palm Beach Counties are historically slightly wetter than Martin(north) and Miami-Dade (south). Monroe and the Keys, of course, are much drier.

Singer Island, in northern Palm Beach County is the easternmost point in Florida.
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...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 17.5°N 43.8°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Neapolitan:
EATL

The models all seem unsure about the futures of both pouches 27 and 28. I suppose we'll see...

Models are excited about the one behind P28L.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32801
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EATL

The models all seem unsure about the futures of both pouches 27 and 28. I suppose we'll see...
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Does anyone really believe the trough will be that strong for this time of year? Modding the weather is a no no with our limited knowledge of the weather and what effects it will have on global weather. Butterfly effect anyone? What happens to all the aluminum and other compounds we inject into the atmosphere?
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Here's my new Afternoon Update video blog. (Models/GOM) Link
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TROPICAL UPDATE
_____________________

NEVER FORGET 911

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One of the GFS ensemble members is showing a storm south of Cuba, it originates from the SW Caribbean, just something to think about down the road, as prospects for development should be heating up in that part of the world with the MJO returning and the monsoon trough becoming active again, along with the lowering of pressures from the troughs swinging down into the Southeast.

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Quoting JLPR:


I'm actually a bit sad to see Michael go. :\
I'm crying.
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EEK it seems you will all need to have access to a  body of water & hoses.
Quoting AussieStorm:
* BREAKING NEWS *
The Queensland Rural Fire Service was dealt a cruel blow by the Newman QLD Government this afternoon with the Axing of 45 uniform positions and the closing of 5 area offices across the State. The news comes ahead of possibly one of the worst bush / grass fire seasons in 50 years.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That powerful hurricane at 240 hours is Nadine?

That hurricane is Nadine, intensity probably overdone though.

Quoting yqt1001:
I see the snow casters are out in full force today (rather early too)

Can't say I'm excited to see snow. Not since we usually get it for 7 solid months.

Personally I really like snow because I get money for snow removal. Also winter has really grown on me, but back to the tropics as they are active.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Euro is also on board for a big trough, as well as a powerful hurricane in the Atlantic:



That powerful hurricane at 240 hours is Nadine?
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I see the snow casters are out in full force today (rather early too)

Can't say I'm excited to see snow. Not since we usually get it for 7 solid months.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
137. JLPR
Quoting Stats56:


On the visible seeing some nice rotation


Yes it has a great LLC. The two independents vort from yesterday merged very nicely.

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136. JLPR
Quoting Neapolitan:
R.I.P. Michael:

AL, 13, 2012091118, , BEST, 0, 402N, 466W, 35, 1000, PT, 34, NEQ, 70, 70, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 20, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,


I'm actually a bit sad to see Michael go. :\
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Quoting JLPR:
Still has a lot of work to do, but it's improving. Considering the spotty convection it should blossom rather nicely tonight.


On the visible seeing some nice rotation
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Tropics = Boring

Fall Severe Weather Season = Fun

Snow Season = Fun


Who is with me?!?!?!

First up is this uneventful looking shortwave:


Then this nice trough in almost 8 days going negative:


And then this fantasy land trough:


We shall see what happens!!!!

Well I like fall severe weather, I like the tropics, and I love snow.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Michael has been the best TC in the Atlantic so far on this 2012 season. From a little swirl it became a powerhouse system that got good ACE numbers.(16.035)

It was a great storm to track and a beauty to watch, now on to Nadine.

Quoting prcane4you:
Another one on the list of recurving fishes.That's boring.Welcome to the fish graveyard in North Atlantic.

You've been a constant downer with these storms, its good that all the hurricanes don't make a US landfall or landfall anywhere else.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
The Euro is also on board for a big trough, as well as a powerful hurricane in the Atlantic:

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Quoting tropicfreak:


If that isn't any indication of what's to come for winter I don't know what is.
A blizzard like 1899 would be nice. xD
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131. JLPR


Still has a lot of work to do, but it's improving. Considering the spotty convection it should blossom rather nicely tonight.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, it's going to get cold for many:





Fall is on the way.

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can't wait for cold weather to come.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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