Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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Quoting allancalderini:
very near Honduras I would say.
Yeah, hugging the coastline, unfortunately a typical placement for a storm in Oct.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Just want to say that the weaker storms in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific until now have been the J storms ( Joyce and John) what a coincidence.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting GTcooliebai:
2nd run in a row, SW Caribbean:

very near Honduras I would say.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting Chicklit:

wowee lookee here
won't pass 55w gonna spin for what feels like forever before it moves out
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517

This is kinda depressing.
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Green House / Fuel Pit



Conditions
-19 C -2 F
9.0 knots
214 degrees SW


As of 09/11 21:18


twilight on the summit
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517

wowee lookee here
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Quoting CaribBoy:
GFS predicts the END of the CV season.

Since we've just reached the midpoint, isn't that premature?
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Blog Update!!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Tropics = Boring

Fall Severe Weather Season = Fun

Snow Season = Fun


Who is with me?!?!?!

First up is this uneventful looking shortwave:


Then this nice trough in almost 8 days going negative:


And then this fantasy land trough:


We shall see what happens!!!!

California storm=WINTER AND SNOW!! Now back to td14
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220. wxmod
A very heavy load of dust for a storm to rotate. MODIS aerosol map today

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GFS predicts the END of the CV season.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6453
considering we are in the heart of hurricane season the blog is pretty slow. watching the gfs closely
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217. wxmod
Quoting sar2401:

I'm well aware of Weather Modification Inc. I have seen no reliable evidence that global weather modification is underway using commercial jet airliners.


You have changed your argument by adding the words "global" and "commercial jet airliners".
All I have to do is look up. It's just that simple. Binoculars help too, but that's pretty high tech.
Sometimes I think some of the bloggers here work for Heartland Institute and they are paid to ridicule perfectly valid observations.
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2nd run in a row, SW Caribbean:

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cool!:)
Quoting indianrivguy:


incoming wu mail :)
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Link


link to anim 18z gfs run
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
cool and i'm from Loxahatchee!:)


incoming wu mail :)
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Snow!
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14L
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting yqt1001:
Rapid intensification (starting) anyone?



that cannot be an eye...in the last frame...
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

If all of those blobs form, we'd have thw W storm.
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only thing to note of the 18z gfs run is 14l in the mid central atlantic

some type of system se of nova scotia
another system over the se northern gulf coast

and our ITCZ seems to be low riding near 0 degrees north which may signal the end of the tropical atlantic CV season
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
cool and i'm from Loxahatchee!:)
Quoting indianrivguy:


You're in Jupiter?

I was sent a pretty cool website the other day, you will likely find interesting stuff there. Go Hydrology
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
So far i got 1.77 of a inch and now more rain coming!!!


You're in Jupiter?

I was sent a pretty cool website the other day, you will likely find interesting stuff there. Go Hydrology
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there is something behind dt14...
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18z gfs final 144hr


okay
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

patty and rafael,maybe sandy and tony lololol
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18z gfs final 144hr

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
So far i got 1.77 of a inch and now more rain coming!!!
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Nothing of Note just bits ...

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193. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting yqt1001:
Rapid intensification (starting) anyone?



AdjT# took a jump. Could be..
17W
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no,i take it back and say nadine,oscar,and td 16
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nadine,oscar,and patty?????????? ?=patty
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Thx!!:)
Quoting LesBonsTemps:



Not sure, but here are the averages

Annual Precipitation
61.39 inches


January

3.75 inches


February

2.55 inches


March

3.68 inches


April

3.57 inches


May

5.39 inches


June

7.58 inches


July

5.97 inches


August

6.65 inches


September

8.1 inches


October

5.46 inches


November

5.55 inches


December

3.14 inches



Years Averaged

30 years



So currently about 50% above average - a lot, but not by an outrageous amount. I believe Broward and Palm Beach Counties are historically slightly wetter than Martin(north) and Miami-Dade (south). Monroe and the Keys, of course, are much drier.

Singer Island, in northern Palm Beach County is the easternmost point in Florida.
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186. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting sar2401:

Skye, I'm well aware of Weather Modification Inc. We had a bad drought in California during the early 90's and, along with the State Water Agency, we were asked to evaluate WMI's past projects to see if local cloud seeding could help fill out reservoirs. They had a good sales pitch but, after examining their record and talking to some other agenice that used their services, it turns out most of the cloud seeding projects were miserable failures. The results were either no rain or too much rain, and the outcome was unpredicatable in either direction. If you look at the dates of WMI's projects, they are mostly in 70's though the 90's, when it seemed like local weather modification might work. Most of the time, it didn't. WMI's main sources of revenue now are radar and telemetry.

My point is that there's a vast difference between attempting weather modification on a local basis and adding nanoparticles to jet fuel so that airliners can fly around the world and do who knows what, if anything, to the weather. Local weather modification is still an ongoing experiment. I have seen no reliable evidence that global weather modification is underway using commercial jet airliners.


I was responding to that comment I quoted where you said you consulted at the largest utility on the west coast. Seemed to have never heard of seeding for hydro & was looking for evidence?

Really? I was a consultant working for the largest utility on the west coast. My primary job was project management in the hydro division. I was responsible for overall coordination of every project for 12 years. We produced almost 40% of our revenue from hydro power. Not once did I ever see any evidence the company, or anyone else, for that matter, was engaged in any weather modification activity. What evidence do you have for such a broad and sweeping assertion?

When The power giant, Southern California Edison, has been seeding clouds for decades along with most the hydro plants in CA. WMi has many ongoing present day projects seeding, that list is all they've done world wide since the mid '80s. There are other companies too...though I'll agree that since the decline in the economy the seed money dried up a little.

As for putting additives in airliner & military fuel for high level reflection.. I'll have to look later for something but to start the research is certainly happening. Here's a Harvard/NASA paper to mull over... Interesting using DE...never thought of that... That is such a drying substance. It's edible, non-toxic, we put it in grain & food to kill bugs. It very effectively dries out & dehydrated bugs with exoskeletons. Awful to get in your eyes. Completely fits the description of white fine powder that people found on cars & saw "raining" from the sky during Isaac (just saying:).
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Rapid intensification (starting) anyone?

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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