Tropical Storm Leslie hits Newfoundland; TD 14 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 11, 2012

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Tropical Storm Leslie zoomed ashore over Newfoundland this morning near 8 am EDT, traveling with a forward speed of 40 mph. Leslie brought sustained winds to the capital of St. Johns of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. At least three other stations in Newfoundland recorded gusts over hurricane force: Cape Pine (85 mph), Bonavista (77 mph), and Argentia (74 mph). Damage to buildings has been reported in St. Johns, and the storm has knocked out power to much of Southeast Newfoundland, including the capital. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over Nova Scotia in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. Overall, though, the damage to Canada appears to be far less than that of Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. Leslie has now transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm, and will bring heavy rains to Iceland on Thursday, and to Scotland on Friday.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Leslie as it crossed Newfoundland at 9:46 am EDT September 11, 2012. At the time, Leslie had top winds of 70 mph. The cloud pattern of Leslie looks more extratropical than tropical, and Leslie was no longer a tropical storm at this time. Tropical Storm Michael is visible at lower right, as a tight swirl of low clouds.

Hurricane Michael dying
The longest-lived hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was Michael, which attained hurricane status at 11 pm EDT September 5 and finally weakened to a tropical storm at 5 am EDT this morning. Satellite loops show that Michael has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is racing to the northeast over colder waters. Michael will likely be declared dead later today.

Tropical Depression 14 forms
Tropical Depression Fourteen has formed midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Friday. The models unanimously predict that TD 14 recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. TD 14 is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Tropical Storm Nadine by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF model predicts that the cold front that swept off the U.S. East Coast Monday will leave a trough of low pressure over the ocean which could serve as the focus for development of a tropical or subtropical depression several hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina late this week.


Figure 2. Visible NOAA GOES-7 satellite image of Hurricane Iniki just before landfall in Hawaii at 8:01 pm EDT September 11, 1992. Iniki completed a “clean sweep” of National Weather Service offices responsible for issuing hurricane warnings. The National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida (Hurricane Andrew), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam (Typhoon Omar), and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii (Hurricane Iniki) were all struck by strong hurricanes within a 2-month span in 1992. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki
Twenty years ago today, Hurricane Iniki, the most powerful hurricane on record to strike the state of Hawaii, made landfall on the island of Kauai as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts up to 175 mph. Iniki brought storm tides of 4.5 - 6 feet (1.4 - 1.8 m) to Kauai, with high water marks of up to 18 feet (5.5 m) being measured due to large waves on top of the surge. Waves up to 35 feet (10.5 m) battered the southern coastline for several hours, causing a debris line of more than 800 feet (250 m) inland. The hurricane's high winds did incredible damage to structures on the island--5,152 homes were severely damaged, and some parts of the island were without power for three months. Iniki's $3 billion damage (2012 dollars) made the hurricane the second costliest Eastern Pacific hurricane, trailing Hurricane Paul, which made landfall in Mexico in 1982. Iniki holds the Eastern Pacific record for lowest pressure for a landfalling hurricane--945 mb (27.91").

Jeff Masters

"Leslie" surf@ Newport # 1 (RIWXPhoto)

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good Night guys, another nice night here in GA, except for me because i swim outdoors before the sun comes up.
Its funny im still hoping for a giant trough to come.

Have a safe evening night crew and everybody else.

Good night GA, you need to take a break from all the swimming. I would like a nice cool down so I hope it happens.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
For those who missed it earlier, I wrote a special entry on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki.

Remembering Hurricane Iniki 20 years later.
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278. JLPR2
Before I go back to studying for my Finance test...



ASCAT caught TS 14 nicely.
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Good Night guys, another nice night here in GA, except for me because i swim outdoors before the sun comes up.
Its funny im still hoping for a giant trough to come.

Have a safe evening night crew and everybody else.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

If all of those blobs form, we'd have thw W storm.


We will have StormW?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Nadine it is then.

14-7-1, unless of course the NHC changes its mind.


that would make this season ABOVE AVERAGE in terms of storms... an el nino year...wow
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting indianrivguy:


Nope, 1942 on the mainland, we were bombed, shelled and ballooned by the JapENESE

American Theater
Thank you for the lesson. I never knew or forgot I did anyway. Good evening everyone. Back a few pages trying to catch up.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Lurking... lurking. :P

I see we have TS 14, not official yet (in the NHC), but looks good and I don't see why it wouldn't be a TS at 11pm.

Exhibiting an excellent structure.


Maybe, just maybe, this might be the first one to strengthen rapidly in the MDR.
Not to sure..Leslie looked good...and you saw what happened to her beastly self.
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271. JLPR2
Lurking... lurking. :P

I see we have TS 14, not official yet (in the NHC), but looks good and I don't see why it wouldn't be a TS at 11pm.

Exhibiting an excellent structure.


Maybe, just maybe, this might be the first one to strengthen rapidly in the MDR.
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When could we see TD 15?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
Quoting Tazmanian:
Evere TD this year has be come a name storm

So far.
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Oops, double post. Sorry.
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Winds up to 30kts and pressure down 2mb on 90E.

EP, 90, 2012091200, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1045W, 30, 1006



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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Nadine it is then.

14-7-1, unless of course the NHC changes its mind.

I highly doubt they will, they have enough evidence for a TS.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 14, 2012091200, , BEST, 0, 175N, 446W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,


Nadine it is then.

14-7-1, unless of course the NHC changes its mind.
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Evere TD this year has be come a name storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
Link

Blog Update





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We have Nadine
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T.D 14 still having problems.
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259. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not yet, wait for the upgrade per ATCF site.


Yeah well it's basically inevitable. This is what the NHC wanted to see before officially upgrading .... a consensus of T2.5from the two agencies so now that it's happened, they will mostly likely (99.99999% chance) upgrade tonight.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 14, 2012091200, , BEST, 0, 175N, 446W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,
the 14 of the season is here.
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It's here, Nadine with 40mph winds and a 1004mb pressure.
AL, 14, 2012091200, , BEST, 0, 175N, 446W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
AL, 14, 2012091200, , BEST, 0, 175N, 446W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M,
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Come out and play Nadine!
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Curved bands seem to be trying to form.

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It looks like we should see TS Nadine at 11am but we have to wait until its official. Edit: ATCF has Nadine, should/will be a TS at 11pm.

11/2345 UTC 17.0N 44.7W T2.5/2.5 14L -- Atlantic
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
Quoting SLU:
14-7-1

11/2345 UTC 17.0N 44.7W T2.5/2.5 14L -- Atlantic


Not yet, wait for the upgrade per ATCF site.
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250. SLU
14-7-1

11/2345 UTC 17.0N 44.7W T2.5/2.5 14L -- Atlantic
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow!


Please no. No snow. Not yet. Is that light green part that drops into middle MN snow? (Sorry, I'm still learning to read these maps.) I really really really hope not. We topped out at 95 degrees today. GORGEOUS. (I'm only in MN for the hockey. I swear.)
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We will likely have Tropical Storm Nadine at 03z. SAB joins TAFB in showing T2.5/35 knots.

11/2345 UTC 17.0N 44.7W T2.5/2.5 14L -- Atlantic
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Anywhere from Sept. 21 to Nov 15, looks to the SW Caribbean as the breeding ground for Tropical Cyclones, producing some of the most powerhouses of hurricanes, but like SSideBrac says lets just hope it's rain only and I only say rain because we have no mountains, rivers or lakes to produce flash flooding, just overflow of swamps and flooding in low lying areas.
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245. viman
so, once again, a system with a center on one side and another center on the other side... is this the new norm...
what an odd season...again...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link


link to anim 18z gfs run


So if I'm reading that right, Nadine-to-be causes a trough split creating a TD or sub-TD which whacks into Cape Breton Island. Craaazeee!
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow!


There is no snow in that map that is not way up in canada
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

we need the rain bad plus wouldn't mind the gusty winds too darn hot and dry here in GCM

True - but so long as it is only that!
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Quoting Skyepony:


I was responding to that comment I quoted where you said you consulted at the largest utility on the west coast. Seemed to have never heard of seeding for hydro & was looking for evidence?

Really? I was a consultant working for the largest utility on the west coast. My primary job was project management in the hydro division. I was responsible for overall coordination of every project for 12 years. We produced almost 40% of our revenue from hydro power. Not once did I ever see any evidence the company, or anyone else, for that matter, was engaged in any weather modification activity. What evidence do you have for such a broad and sweeping assertion?

When The power giant, Southern California Edison, has been seeding clouds for decades along with most the hydro plants in CA. WMi has many ongoing present day projects seeding, that list is all they've done world wide since the mid '80s. There are other companies too...though I'll agree that since the decline in the economy the seed money dried up a little.

As for putting additives in airliner & military fuel for high level reflection.. I'll have to look later for something but to start the research is certainly happening. Here's a Harvard/NASA paper to mull over... Interesting using DE...never thought of that... That is such a drying substance. It's edible, non-toxic, we put it in grain & food to kill bugs. It very effectively dries out & dehydrated bugs with exoskeletons. Awful to get in your eyes. Completely fits the description of white fine powder that people found on cars & saw "raining" from the sky during Isaac (just saying:).
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

we need the rain bad plus wouldn't mind the gusty winds too darn hot and dry here in GCM

I feel for you. Drought is awful.
And just doesn't feel right in the tropics.
We're supposed to be wet!
I hope you get something, Kid.
okay, I'm off to fix supper and turn in.
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Quoting Chicklit:

Well, let's hope for your sake, Wunderkid.
Looks like KmanIslander's greens could also use some irrigation lol.

we need the rain bad plus wouldn't mind the gusty winds too darn hot and dry here in GCM
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TD 14 Microwave:

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I see GFS show the end of CV season comming very soon and the satrt of caribbean season can't wait to see what it shall bring (already showing SW caribbean storm at end of model run for the past 2 runs)

Well, let's hope for your sake, Wunderkid.
Looks like KmanIslander's greens could also use some irrigation lol.
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hey guys I see GFS show the end of CV season comming very soon and the satrt of caribbean season can't wait to see what it shall bring (already showing SW caribbean storm at end of model run for the past 2 runs)
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Quoting Chicklit:

Another one headed for Iceland?
That far away place doesn't seem as far as it used to be.


so true this season anyway

maybe they will get a tropical blizzard


lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah, hugging the coastline, unfortunately a typical placement for a storm in Oct.
do you think it would move more west or it would start moving northwest if a storm really develops in there?
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Look at how dry it is in the Western Caribbean.

And wind shear is low.

Still no development.

LinkCaribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
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Quoting Chicklit:

Since we've just reached the midpoint, isn't that premature?
maybe a yellow circle tomorrow or later today if it is lucky.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
won't pass 55w gonna spin for what feels like forever before it moves out

Another one headed for Greenland?
That far away place doesn't seem as far as it used to be.
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Quoting allancalderini:
very near Honduras I would say.
Yeah, hugging the coastline, unfortunately a typical placement for a storm in Oct.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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