Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on September 10, 2012

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The summer of 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. June 2012 ranked as the 14th warmest June on record, August was the 16th warmest August on record, and July was the warmest month of any month in U.S. history, bringing the average summer temperature of the contiguous U.S. just 0.2°F shy of the hottest summer on record--the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Second place is held by 2011, which was just 0.1°F cooler than the summer of 1936. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - August. Temperatures this year in the U.S. have been so far above the previous record--a remarkable 1°F for the year-to-date period--that even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895. The most recent 12-month period of September 2011 - August 2012 was the 4th warmest 12-month period in U.S. history, exceeded only by the 12-month periods ending in July, June, and May of this year.


Figure 1. The summer of 2012 was the warmest on record for Wyoming and Colorado, and ranked in the top-ten warmest on record for 22 other states. For the Contiguous U.S., it was the 3rd warmest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through August, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from September through December, the remaining five months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. The January-August 2012 contiguous U.S. average temperature was 58.7°F, 4.0°F above average. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - August period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 47% during the year-to-date January - August period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 85% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eight months of 2012, and 75% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 22%, which was the 11th greatest since 1910.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - August shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eight months of the year on record, with 47% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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734. RTSplayer
3:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting floridafisherman:


just curious, but do you only advocate assassinations against radical muslims?


No.

1, Domestic and International crimes that would otherwise be considered war crimes:

Anyone directly involved in terrorism, piracy, gang, or mob massacres or other killings related to their activities and other militia or para-militia criminal organizations; Organized crimes or terror attacks or mass shootings not involving any state's military.

2, Evil dictators who commit war crimes or atrocities against their own people or neighboring nations.

We should kill such organizations or rogue governments from the top down, rather than the bottom up as we have done in the past. Aim for heads of state, cabinet members, officers and other "appointed" officials first.

A tomahawk missile should have been up Ghaddafi's rear end decades ago, IMO.

Assad in Syria?

His entire government should be executed. We already know they are guilty war crimes and massacres against their own people, which started even before the two-way violence happened. They opened fire on unarmed protestors in some cases. It's public, world wide knowledge, so a "trial" is a joke and unnecessary.


If we're going to baby-sit the MIddle East then let's go ahead and do it, and off these guys immediately every time they do something like this, instead of letting it go on for decades.

After a few years of that policy, I think any potential Saddams, Ghadafi's, and Asads would think twice before doing this any more.



what about the radical conservative christians? pat robertson and his like? they are pretty radical in alot of aspects. so should we start assassinating them as well? or do you only hate muslims?



The majority of radical christians haven't bombed or shot anyone, and would never do unprovoked physical violence to anyone.


Comparing Pat Robertson to a terrorist or pirate, regardless of religion or non-religion, is completely absurd as they have nothing at all in common.



The reason I hate muslims is because radicals want me and all other "infidels" dead for no reason whatsoever, and make unprovoked terror attacks and massacres of innocents. meanwhile, the so-called "moderates" almost never confront the radicals or do anything about it at all.

Many of the so-called "moderates" were mad and complained that we killed Bin Laden.

He got better than what he deserved.

He should have been paraded around on a pike in the capital city of every nation that has been hit by an Al Quaeda terrorist attack, and let everyone, especially Muslims, watch while the birds picked out his eyes.

And anyone who wanted to should be given the opportunity to take a piss on his corpse.

That's more in line with what the crime was. Teh punishment should fit the crime, and his secret burial at sea was not fitting the crime.


As for non-muslims like this most recent guy who did the booby trap and distraction for police, while doing the mass shooting in the theatre, the punishment should fit the crime.

It was a para-military style attack with at least 3 layers of pre-planning: distraction, booby trap, massacre the unarmed.

That is not insanity, that is a calculated, rationally planned murderous attack.


He should get the same fate as any other "war criminal" type perpetrator, in a military tribunal, NOT a civilian court. They should not have the benefit of a plea bargain or insanity plea, as this is a deliberately calculated attack with multi-layers of planning, intended to maximized civilian casualties. In that case by distracting or attempted murdering the police with his booby traps, almost like "Jigsaw" from the "Saw" horror/thriller movies.


In cases like this where the guilt is already know and is not in any contestation, I think it needs to go farther even. The law should give the police officers the right and responsibility of executing the perpetrator on sight.

It's ridiculous that millions of dollars will be spent on a "trial" for somebody everyone already knows is absolutely guilty, and then the bastard will probably get away with it somehow on an "insanity" plea. It's a mockery to even the most basic concepts of justice.




It absolutely makes me sick the way our judicial system works for the majority of cases. We actually have another mass murderer, who killed 4 people and maimed a few others by driving over them in a car back in 2001, and he plead insanity (but was found guilty of the crime,) so they put him in a mental hospital, and now after 10 years he's been declared "cured" and is going to be released!!! If the SoB is "cured" then he can serve his 4 life sentences in prison, or take the death sentence, just like every other "sane" murderer or mass murderer.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
733. RTSplayer
3:03 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Just saw that TWC footage of Hurricane Iniki in Hawaii blowing off the hip roof of that building.

I just gotta say, as impressive as it looked, that roof had a flawed design. The roof itself did not fail, but it lacked "Kickers" on the overhangs*, and it lacked straps. If it had either/or, the total failure and blown away event would not have happened.

* a "Kicker" is the short, 2-by-4 framing piece which goes between the tail of the rafters and connects it in a triangle to a lower portion of the wall. This is what forms the parallel overhang on most American roof construction.

Typically, the framing crew runs a 2-by-4, sometimes 2-by-6, along the wall nailed into each stud, and these kickers are nailed perpendicular to this board, and run horizontal out to the end of the tails, where they are nailed into the tails of the Rafters and an outside "tail plate," typically 2-by-4 or 2-by-6.

In order for a roof like this to be "blown away," the wind would basically need to disintegrate the entire wall, or take the entire building air-bourne.

In Louisiana I think this was pre-andrew code in most districts, or at least I was never involved in making a house without the kickers, except on one possible occasion.

The roof without kickers looks "fancy" and more popular, but it is nowhere near as strong. I don't know for sure, but kickers with no straps is probably significantly stronger than straps with no kickers.

Doing both probably adds a full category or 2 to the survivability of a structure compared to doing neither.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
732. floridafisherman
3:03 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Except I don't believe pat Robertson has killed anyone...


but other radical christians have.... abortion clinic bombings...the atlanta olympics bombings....oklahoma city..... shall i go on?
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 550
731. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:57 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
unlike the other storms, TD 14 is moving at 10 mph...it can organize faster at lower moving pace

The farther in time we progress, the better the conditions are in the east and Central Atlantic. My opinion anyways.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31522
730. VINNY04
2:56 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
God bless America and the troops that defend this great nation of ours! And despite the problems we may have we still live in the greatest nation on earth. May it forever stay that way. Never forget 9/11!
Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
729. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:56 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
728. Progster
2:54 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is flying aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!


Well, there aren't any aircraft there, but that's beside the point. Storms often develop in Canada and move into the States. NCEP uses data from Canada to initialize the GFS and other US models. Does this mean Canada pays for US weather forecasts? Of course not. It just means that the World Meteorological Organization and its agreements for member states (nearly every country on earth) to share data is alive and well, and one of the few examples of really good international cooperation.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
727. HurrMichaelOrl
2:54 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did the superstition come true this year that.."Something bad always happens to the U.S during leap year when it comes to hurricanes".Well depending on your opinion on wheather Isaac was bad enough for you I think it's true.Lol.I wonder how the U.S will fair the rest of the season.


Isaac was certainly bad and did take lives. But, was it (in terms of fatalities and/or monetary damage) worse than the average worst tropical cyclone affecting the US in a given year?
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1078
726. LightningCharmer
2:52 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did the superstition come true this year that.."Something bad always happens to the U.S during leap year when it comes to hurricanes".Well depending on your opinion on wheather Isaac was bad enough for you I think it's true.Lol.I wonder how the U.S will fair the rest of the season.
What about years with a "leap second?"

Leap Second ... Will Cause 61-Second Minute
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
725. JLPR2
2:51 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
TD 14 is pretty large.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8506
724. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:50 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

CORRECTED FOR MISSING REFERENCE LOCATION

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
BUT NOT A THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 43.1W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
723. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:49 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
unlike the other storms, TD 14 is moving at 10 mph...it can organize faster at lower moving pace
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
722. washingtonian115
2:49 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting NovaScotia33:
By the way for those of you on here (and there are a couple we all know) that whine about there only being "Fish Storms" this year, they may be interested in knowing this. Here in Nova Scotia we have places that are under 4 feet of water from Leslie and as we speak Newfroundland is being pounded by a direct hit. Trees are down, power is out, houses and churches have had the roofs blown off them. We may be different here in Canada but we are not Fish! Alot of people lost their homes yesterday and today.
If that's the case Canada may decide to retire Leslie like they did Igor.I knew there was something fishy(no pun intended) about Leslie's ugly a**.Those poor people up there now have to put up with her and the trouble she's bringing.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16435
721. NovaScotia33
2:44 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
By the way for those of you on here (and there are a couple we all know) that whine about there only being "Fish Storms" this year, they may be interested in knowing this. Here in Nova Scotia we have places that are under 4 feet of water from Leslie and as we speak Newfroundland is being pounded by a direct hit. Trees are down, power is out, houses and churches have had the roofs blown off them. We may be different here in Canada but we are not Fish! Alot of people lost their homes yesterday and today.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
720. Stats56
2:42 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
719. LightningCharmer
2:41 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Sure someone already noticed but 14 on Navy site.

Link
Now on NHC site as well.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
718. CybrTeddy
2:41 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
TD14 on NHC site.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23610
717. JLPR2
2:41 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
I like how the 06z GFS ended. A weak low moving northward between Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles, come on long range prediction, materialize! XD

That way I'll be happy, Caribboy probably wanted a bit more but, rain is rain.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8506
716. LightningCharmer
2:40 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Sure someone already noticed but 14 on Navy site.

Link
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1264
714. stormwatcherCI
2:40 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting superpete:
850 mb Vort on 'Quasi' 14.....

I think we need to keep a good eye on the wave that just came off Africa. Pretty far south.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8272
713. stormwatcherCI
2:38 PM GMT on September 11, 2012




Windsat. Circulation looks good.
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712. StormPro
2:31 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did the superstition come true this year that.."Something bad always happens to the U.S during leap year when it comes to hurricanes".Well depending on your opinion on wheather Isaac was bad enough for you I think it's true.Lol.I wonder how the U.S will fair the rest of the season.
Isaac was bad enough for me!
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
711. superpete
2:31 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
850 mb Vort on 'Quasi' 14.....

Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 636
710. washingtonian115
2:28 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Did the superstition come true this year that.."Something bad always happens to the U.S during leap year when it comes to hurricanes".Well depending on your opinion on wheather Isaac was bad enough for you I think it's true.Lol.I wonder how the U.S will fair the rest of the season.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16435
708. VR46L
2:24 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Interesting Very Interesting!!! Blob in the BOC

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6840
707. Kumo
2:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my only comment on the subject for this day


"NEVER FORGET,ALWAYS REMEMBER"



We hope it never happens again. Many thank yous to the NYPD and NYFD that risked everything to save the lives of those trapped in the towers.
Member Since: August 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 145
706. weathermanwannabe
2:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Here is the Aussie Met Enso Update from today. Looks like a full-blown strong El Nino is not going to materialize this year....They are already looking at possible Neutral Spring of 2013 conditions. That may open the door to Neutral or La Nina conditions next Fall.

Pacific near El Nino thresholds; positive Indian Ocean Dipole
Issued on Tuesday 11 September | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures remain at values close to El Nino thresholds. Other ENSO indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns show patterns more typical of neutral conditions. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also presently within neutral values.

Regardless of whether El Nino thresholds are reached, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. This, combined with other influences on Australian climate such as cooler than normal waters to the north of the Australian continent and the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, tends to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values close to El Nino thresholds before returning to more neutral values towards the end of 2012 or early 2013.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past 7 weeks. Outlooks from the Bureau%u2019s climate model indicate the IOD will likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is usually associated with decreased spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.


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704. washingtonian115
2:20 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, I'm thinking that after Nadine we might be in for a lull until early October when the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase comes into be more prominent positive phase.


Thinking that 16-9-1 or 16-9-2 is a fair bet for final total.
19 is possible depending on how many storms we squeeze out in October(and November if possible) this year.It would be something to have storms form not only before the offical start of hurricane season but after it as well(that's if we get a Olga part two in the caribbean).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16435
703. CybrTeddy
2:18 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I forgot to exclude the caribbean.


Yea, I'm thinking that after Nadine we might be in for a lull until early October when the Madden-Julian Oscillation phase comes into a more prominent positive phase.


Thinking that 16-9-1 or 16-9-2 is a fair bet for final total.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23610
702. AussieStorm
2:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
My thought on 9/11

How naive I was to believe that the world is fundamentally different from that of our ancestors, whose lives were changed by bearing witness to the 20th century's vilest acts of war.

May all the people that passed from this act and all the people effected by this act, may they be at peace.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
700. washingtonian115
2:14 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not in the SW Caribbean, where stalled out fronts like the one draped over Florida could cause major systems to develop in October. Think of Rina, Paula, Wilma, ect to name recent examples of this sort of classic development.
I forgot to exclude the caribbean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16435
699. CybrTeddy
2:12 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow just when it warms back up into the mid 80's come mid week it cools right back down into the 70's which leads me to beleive that it won't be to long before we see a abrupt end to the cape verde season.Also with the coming strong troughs expect conditions in the Atlantic to get hostile.Woot woot!.We may experience our first nor'easter in October.


Not in the SW Caribbean, where stalled out fronts like the one draped over Florida could cause major systems to develop in October. Think of Rina, Paula, Wilma, ect to name recent examples of this sort of classic development.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23610
698. washingtonian115
2:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Wow just when it warms back up into the mid 80's come mid week it cools right back down into the 70's which leads me to beleive that it won't be to long before we see a abrupt end to the cape verde season.Also with the coming strong troughs expect conditions in the Atlantic to get hostile.Woot woot!.We may experience our first nor'easter in October.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16435
697. CybrTeddy
2:10 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I doubt the NHC will update 91L its convection is still mostly absent, and this is Dmax
plus we've already run this drill once it can happen again



11/1145 UTC 16.2N 42.4W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

AL, 14, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 160N, 426W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M

This time, we do have TD14. Last time, the renumber was a test for the HPC, which is a backup to the NHC which caused the confusion. Yesterday, the NHC never planned to upgrade 91L to TD14. Today, it's legit.

If I'm wrong, I might just stop using the ATCF and NRL sites for that data.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23610
696. midgulfmom
2:07 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Surprising how much wildlife killed by Issac. Nutria, cows, deer, a whale.... Duration of the wind had to have upped the usual numbers I'm suspecting.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
695. all4hurricanes
2:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
I doubt the NHC will update 91L its convection is still mostly absent, and this is Dmax
plus we've already run this drill once it can happen again
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2352
694. tornadodude
2:03 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Good morning everyone
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
693. midgulfmom
2:00 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..the 00z CMC has a storm in the GOM

Blehhhhhh! As Snoopy would say....when is the developing?
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
692. CybrTeddy
1:56 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting JasonRE:


Not too intelligent when it comes to the models, but what does this mean? When is it showing a storm for the GOM?


I wouldn't worry about it, there's no other model support to expect cyclogenesis. CMC is notorious for spinning up 'ghost' storms as it where.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23610
691. JasonRE
1:52 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..the 00z CMC has a storm in the GOM



Not too intelligent when it comes to the models, but what does this mean? When is it showing a storm for the GOM?
Member Since: August 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
690. RTSplayer
1:51 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


It should say

"third warmest summer in reliable and recorded weather history." (1895)



That is what they mean by default.

Look at the context of the article and the graphics, it is presenting years 1 through 118.


2012 - 117(don't count this year) = 1895

The reason this is correct is because there is no "zeroth" year in the modern record, so it is shifted right 1 year. Therefore 118-1 = 117, then subtracted 117 from 2012 as above.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
689. CybrTeddy
1:48 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is flying aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!


Here's a question for you. Why does it matter what hurricane hunters fly into? It's not exactly a 10 billion per flight investment. If a storm is threatening land, the hurricane hunters are going to check it out. Stop complaining and understand that research is done with these storms so that the hurricane hunters have a better idea of track, intensity and what to put into the advisories, they also put data into the hurricane models to better understand the threat downhill. With Leslie though it's data and research to observe a system as it goes post-tropical.

Per the NHC and live reconnaissance site, there isn't even a recon out there even. Get a grip.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23610
688. RTSplayer
1:46 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Again can anyone tell me why the United State is flying aircraft into a dying storm in the north Atlantic? We fund Canadas weather too! Huge waste of money!!!!!!!!!!!



Global Models could be improved by better understanding or northern storms.

A global model tries to forecast everything for the entire planet, which effects trade and military and all other vessels in every part of the planet, not just our mainland. It helps everyone.


If you can improve your input data for one region, the "butterfly effect" will improve the output for all regions.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
687. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:40 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
my only comment on the subject for this day


"NEVER FORGET,ALWAYS REMEMBER"

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
686. RTSplayer
1:39 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, no it doesn't. Weather doesn't happen without an atmosphere and it took quite a while for one to form.

Unless of course you subscribe to certain myths about Earth's creation, in which case there are other blogs to discuss such theological concepts.


What gives YOU the right to dictate the terms of debate on this blog, since you're neither an admin nor a TWC spox?


The belief in your "history" of the atmosphere, whether true or not, is actually a "hypothesis," not a theory or law, since we cannot test that conjecture by experiment.

If the Earth actually was molten from any Accretion, there would be an atmosphere automatically, because oxygen compounds and hydrogen compounds bake out of rock. In fact, this process is well known and has been suggested as a means of maintaining oxygen supplies on prolonged manned Lunar and possibly even martian landing missions, by using solar power and ovens to bake the oxygen out of the rocks, and catch it with the hydrogen to make water, then electrolysis to separate the Oxygen from the H2O, then recycle the H2.


Now that's just "baking" rock. If the rocks were molten as required in the accretion theory of Earth, then there certainly would have been enormous amounts of atmosphere right away, probably even more than we have today, since a large portion of it would have been stripped away by the Sun in the alleged 5 billion years the Earth was here.


If nothing else, the water would vaporize until it hit a pressure equilibrium that is about the same as today, but slightly higher due to much higher temperatures, because water boils at lower temperature as pressure decreases, and with a much higher temperature, the equilibrium point would be a much higher pressure than what we have now.


So you are quite wrong indeed. An accretion model Earth would have had a MUCH thicker atmosphere at the time of creation than what we have now.


Again, you can prove that by taking a rock and baking it at a few thousand degrees, and it will release the Oxygen, among other gases.

The Oxygen got back into the rocks at a later time, possibly, through Oxidation at temperatures more like today.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
685. CybrTeddy
1:35 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Seems legit--though remember that this happened yesterday morning, only to be swiftly rescinded. So given how the ATCF has behaved this year, you may want to give the NHC final say:

AL, 14, 2012091112, , BEST, 0, 160N, 426W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M


Worth noting that yesterday the confusion was due to the HPC issuing the renumber, not the NHC. It was a test of the backup system that caused the confusion. The NHC never actually planned to upgrade 91L to TD14.

Today, the NHC issued the renumber, so this time it is legit, and unlike yesterday, the wording in the TWO indicates an upgrade at 11, the T# both support the upgrade as well. So I think it is safe to say we have TD14 this time around.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23610
684. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:34 PM GMT on September 11, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


I think it's called Baroclynic amplification.

When tropical cyclones get far to the north they start to hybridize and mix with fronts and upper level lows, and that can enhance their intensity even as they lose tropical characteristics, and for example, the pressure may drop more, and they "eye" or CoC may get bigger or elongated, etc.


Well, I asked because from adv. 47 the pressure was 988 and now it's 968 mb... a 20 mb drop so fast?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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