Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history
The summer of 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. June 2012 ranked as the 14th warmest June on record, August was the 16th warmest August on record, and July was the warmest month of any month in U.S. history, bringing the average summer temperature of the contiguous U.S. just 0.2°F shy of the hottest summer on record--the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Second place is held by 2011, which was just 0.1°F cooler than the summer of 1936. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - August. Temperatures this year in the U.S. have been so far above the previous record--a remarkable 1°F for the year-to-date period--that even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895. The most recent 12-month period of September 2011 - August 2012 was the 4th warmest 12-month period in U.S. history, exceeded only by the 12-month periods ending in July, June, and May of this year.
Figure 1. The summer of 2012 was the warmest on record for Wyoming and Colorado, and ranked in the top-ten warmest on record for 22 other states. For the Contiguous U.S., it was the 3rd warmest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Figure 2. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through August, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from September through December, the remaining five months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. The January-August 2012 contiguous U.S. average temperature was 58.7°F, 4.0°F above average. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Most extreme January - August period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 47% during the year-to-date January - August period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 85% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eight months of 2012, and 75% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 22%, which was the 11th greatest since 1910.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - August shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eight months of the year on record, with 47% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I agree 100% - BUT - many people cannot afford to do so, regardless of living in Caribbean or USA.
We had that problem in Cayman Brac post Paloma - may of the older homes (pre-Code)that had been destroyed/badly damaged were owned by older people with either, inadequate or, no insurance - for many, they could not even re-construct let alone to an expensive and stringent Code.
I do, however, think that Shelters in hurricane areas MUST be built to the highest possible specifications known.
I can't find the initial reports I read about it, but here's an Independant story about how the UK could actually get colder with GW.
Link
That said, there's also the case that sunspot activity has an effect on UK winters too (and Europe I should add)
Link
So, sort of one for either side of the debate for ya!
Yeah a lot of folks forget about the impact of the debris hitting a structure at those high speeds. A 100 lb chunk of metal catching a wind gust of 150+ mph and then hitting a building can easily comprimise the structural integrity of the building.
i didnt say lessen the truth, just increase the nice.
Give someone the gift of truth, rather than beat them over the head with the truthhammer.
The truth hurts....especially coming from Neapolitan.
He always tells to truth but some people tend to feel alienated by his answers and explanations.
It would help him to change that.
Even i cringe reading his response to some people, and thats when i agree with him.
ECMWF went to 910mb with her once.
Michael? never showed any strengthening at all. Just goes to show how the weather isn't really forecast, more rather just throwing a dart at a board luck. :P
The second vort related to 91L is now moving north circling our invest, should end up merging with it.
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-114
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (AL91)
FLIGHT ONE --NASA 872--
A. 11/1430Z
B. NA872 0214A AL91 SURVEILLANCE AV-6
C. 11/1015Z
D. 18N 45W
E. 11/1430Z TO 12/0530Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. IP 25.6N 53.7W LAWNMOWER WITH 6 NORTH-SOUTH
LEGS BETWEEN 52W TO 39W.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NASA GLOBAL
HAWK MISSION AROUND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUSPECT AL91.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
No but its something, we cant really blame the appalachians like NC can, and we dont have any major geographic obstacle on the GA/AL border but its something.
The only reason the western tier of GA counties even has more tornado warnings is that the storms are in AL and get their warning extended to GA, but they die and the GA warning ends up being a bust much of the time.
We just call it the state line curse, storms chug along and promptly die nearly exactly on the border.
I live right on the line..this is so true..
tipical houses in PR
They knew previously and in terms of Lessons Learned, have further strengthened Codes.
I respectfully disagree that the type of structure that you allude to actually exists - even if it did, it is likely to be in the domain of the Military (or perhaps a Bank Vault)and way outside what average "joe blow" citizens could reasonably afford ( and Cayman Islands are not necessarily poor) - after Ivan, I saw steel I beams that were almost twisted into knots, reinforced concrete walls, with vertical and horizontal rebar as well as mat, that were merely "brushed aside" by the wind.
Considering that planes can fly at well over 1000 MPH and are made of metal then the solution must be to clad the buildings in metal.
Sheet metal suitably anchored into concrete should have no problem with 200 MPH winds, as long as the basic structure has sufficient weight to withstand the pressure.
It would be simple enough to clad a slab of concrete with steel and place it in a wind tunnel and air blast it or subject it to pressure at high velocity from a jet engine exhaust.
I would doubt that winds of 200 MPH would cause the surface much damage.
Added to this the winds will probably not be sustained for more than a few hours at most, planes with only alloy skins fly at 600MPH for up to 14 hours non stop.
Same survival happened with a couple of the really old ironwood cottages on the Brac during Paloma and "Yes" Code is now even stricter.
But they flex...
And they dont fly into other buildings, trees, etc
The smog did reflect sunlight and this was partially responsible for the cooler temps. However, the smog was not "good for us". Heavy smog days caused respiratory problems and difficult breathing for even those that did not suffer from respiratory problems. The smog also sped the deterioration of many structures. Millions of dollars were spent in restoring museum art work and stone statues that suffered in the smog. Filling the atmosphere with particulates would only have a short term effect until we could no longer tolerate the smog. .... Then the warming would continue in earnest. You only need to look at Mexico City and the industrialized zones of China and India to see the true impacts of smog, ... Do you ask if we would rather smother ourselves or bake ourselves?
And are, either, aerodynamic or, "fly by wire" to allow them to move/adjust as they do - interesting thought a "fly by wire house".
Around here we've had a lot of rain since last winter. To my west there was elevated fire danger with this front coming through. They're still drier than we are.
Return flow off the gulf supposed to start back up tomorrow and with it the humidity.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
RELOCATE TO THE BAHAMAS AS TUTT LOW ACROSS 55W RETROGRESS TOWARD
PR/USVI. TUTT THEN FILLS ON THU WITH STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TUTT WITH AXIS ALONG 55W WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION FOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY WED AND THU DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE
JUST A SHORT/TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER AS TUTT
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN THU WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MONTH.
INVEST 91L IS FCST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME A LARGE AND INTENSE
HURRICANE AS IT RECURVES TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL
WAVE TO THE EAST OF INVEST 91L IS FCST TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN
ROUTE AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MAKING IT FARTHER WEST AT A LOWER
LATITUDE THAN INVEST 91L. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GFES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW THIS SECOND SYSTEM EVENTUALLY RECURVING AND GETTING ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER INVEST 91L. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL WITH NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS PATTERN EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER
SEP 20TH
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT OFFSHORE AND 1-3 FT NEARSHORE.
ISOLD-SCT TSTMS EXPECTED MID WEEK CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 91 / 0 20 10 10
STT 80 88 80 88 / 0 20 30 30
The black hole
91L
I'm sure you are all familiar with these, but it's how people in Puerto Rico (and I imagine elsewhere too) used to protect themselves from hurricanes.
Pretty similar to a tornado shelter, or at least what TV and movies show of tornado shelters.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tlehman/380066149/
South Florida has even more water and structures there are finally discharging some serious volumes of water to keep levels steady.
Hope the weather is turning for the best where you are.
Leslie will be there in a few days.
I dont belive there are problems with metal clad buildings at up to 200MPH. I do agree instantly that airborne debris is a major problem to buildings with its impact speeds.
Flexing is not a problem if the cladding is anchored well. A good example of rigid resistance to wind speed effects is the heat shielding on space module reentry vehicles.
My experience of the construction industry is its usually stuck in the bricks and mortar/concrete mind set. Where would the aviation industry be if they were building jets with wooden airframes and covering them with doped fabric.
Evolve or expire.
Any idea what Leslie will be, though? Anything worth writing home about?
how do you put the nose of the house into the wind? :)
apples - oranges
houses - airplanes
Leon County just got put back on Burn Ban. I have a police scanner and they are multiple fires being reported in our county today.
And a morning dove can take them down...
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