Summer 2012: 3rd hottest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:48 PM GMT on September 10, 2012

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The summer of 2012 was the 3rd hottest summer in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. June 2012 ranked as the 14th warmest June on record, August was the 16th warmest August on record, and July was the warmest month of any month in U.S. history, bringing the average summer temperature of the contiguous U.S. just 0.2°F shy of the hottest summer on record--the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Second place is held by 2011, which was just 0.1°F cooler than the summer of 1936. So far in 2012, we've had the warmest March on record, 3rd warmest April, 2nd warmest May, and warmest July. These remarkably warm months have helped push temperatures in the contiguous U.S. to the warmest on record for the year-to-date period of January - August. Temperatures this year in the U.S. have been so far above the previous record--a remarkable 1°F for the year-to-date period--that even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. Reliable weather records for the U.S. go back to 1895. The most recent 12-month period of September 2011 - August 2012 was the 4th warmest 12-month period in U.S. history, exceeded only by the 12-month periods ending in July, June, and May of this year.


Figure 1. The summer of 2012 was the warmest on record for Wyoming and Colorado, and ranked in the top-ten warmest on record for 22 other states. For the Contiguous U.S., it was the 3rd warmest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through August, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from September through December, the remaining five months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of September - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year in history. The January-August 2012 contiguous U.S. average temperature was 58.7°F, 4.0°F above average. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - August period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 47% during the year-to-date January - August period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 85% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first eight months of 2012, and 75% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 22%, which was the 11th greatest since 1910.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - August shows that 2012 had the most extreme first eight months of the year on record, with 47% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

...LESLIE PROGRESSING RAPIDLY TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BRUSHING EXTREME EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 57.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
races ne now towards the flemish cap

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Reporting in for the night shift




Well, be nice tonight and try not to insult anybody.
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Advisory needs to come out soon. Nobody posting and the Braves are getting creamed.
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Quoting Grothar:
Night shift on yet?


I'm here, just reading back on what has been said to catch up on what I need to keep watch on.

Looks like Leslie has gone ex-tropical. Michael still moving west.


TD17 is huge....
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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 48.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 48.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 47.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 37.7N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 47.2N 41.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 110SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 52.2N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 160SE 100SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
Reporting in for the night shift


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Night shift on yet?

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
According to latest images.
91L should have enough convection overhead to be upgraded... Renumber still possible within the next 15 minutes, if not This will be TD 14 by the morning.
I would say it looks better that when td 5 was declare.
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According to latest images.
91L should have enough convection overhead to be upgraded... Renumber still possible within the next 15 minutes, if not This will be TD 14 by the morning.
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Quoting Tygor:
I'm really looking forward to putting the 100 degree temps behind us for good in South Central Texas. Now we just need a little rain :)


Nice weather the last few days. Just got done walking a mile and getting ready to walk another one.
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Lesser Antilles Radar

Quite. A few shower to the north though, but barely affecting the islands...
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Quoting java162:
on the island of Dominica in the Caribbean.. boy has it been hot and dry!!!

june and july record dry months with less than 3 inches of rain. early august was more like normal with ernesto td7 and issac giving us 13inches. but since issac we have had absolutely no rain!!! i mean 0 rain!! this is crazy! no tropical waves nuttin... can anyone give me idea as to wen we will get some drought relief?


Yes, that's not funny. Maybe we will need to wait until october to get some decent rain. With all the waves predicted to develop and track north, september could be exceptionally dry. Unfortunately.
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Quoting Tygor:
I'm really looking forward to putting the 100 degree temps behind us for good in South Central Texas. Now we just need a little rain :)
Me too but we need alot of rain over an extended period of time. Hearing El nino should start in Sept? Lakes are very low so bring on a change in the weather patterns. 52 this morning and 95 this afternoon so at least it wasnt 100. Almost 60 days since it rained here, after surviving last Summer that is just cruel.
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Quoting sar2401:

Is there some reason the NHC site still calls her as a tropical storm?

The ATCF is a computer program. The NHC will upgrade if they deem it necessary.
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Quoting sar2401:

Is there some reason the NHC site still calls her as a tropical storm?

Because the new advisory hasn't came in yet.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
518. Tygor
I'm really looking forward to putting the 100 degree temps behind us for good in South Central Texas. Now we just need a little rain :)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From West Palm Beach...When I see highs in the 70's, I'll know that Fall is here...



Yep, the 10-day forecast for Orlando shows highs mid/upper 80s and lows upper 60s/lower 70s toward the end. The temperatures will have to come down a bit further for me to consider it fall. Still, an improvement.
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on the island of Dominica in the Caribbean.. boy has it been hot and dry!!!

june and july record dry months with less than 3 inches of rain. early august was more like normal with ernesto td7 and issac giving us 13inches. but since issac we have had absolutely no rain!!! i mean 0 rain!! this is crazy! no tropical waves nuttin... can anyone give me idea as to wen we will get some drought relief?
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Quoting Skyepony:


I think there was a hurricane just of the east coast that day too, closer than Leslie.


Yes there was. Nice ground swell here in Charleston and the Kiddies were all in school and had the waves all to my self for the morning session.

Only when I got in the truck afterwards then did I hear what happened.
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Quoting Skyepony:


I think there was a hurricane just of the east coast that day too, closer than Leslie.


Erin?

Guess Leslie is now a hurricane, from what I've been reading.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Doesn't have sustained convection.


ahhhh i gitchya
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Updated...No changes...

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511. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Tomorrow will be 9/11/12.The weather we'll have tomorrow will remind of the weather that was across the northeast on that day.Bright blue skies and sunny with feel good temperatures.


I think there was a hurricane just of the east coast that day too, closer than Leslie.
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510. SLU
Quoting weatherh98:


why isnt it a depression


It will be soon if that nice ball of storms near the center persists

10/2345 UTC 15.6N 40.2W T1.0/1.5 91L -- Atlantic
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We have now Tropical Storm Sanba at WPAC upgraded by JMA.

TS 1216 (SANBA)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 11 September 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°25'(9.4°)
E134°00'(134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)


Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E133°55'(133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)


Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50'(14.8°)
E133°00'(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)


Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E130°55'(130.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
508. Skyepony (Mod)
windscat caught 91L
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Tomorrow will be 9/11/12.The weather we'll have tomorrow will remind of the weather that was across the northeast on that day.Bright blue skies and sunny with feel good temperatures.


How did you learn what was happening on that horrible day?
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Quoting weatherh98:


why isnt it a depression

Because it's an invest.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
Quoting Thing342:
Leslie is a Hurricane once more, per ATCF.

AL, 12, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 411N, 585W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 280, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LESLIE, D,

Is there some reason the NHC site still calls her as a tropical storm?
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Tomorrow will be 9/11/12.The weather we'll have tomorrow will remind of the weather that was across the northeast on that day.Bright blue skies and sunny with feel good temperatures.
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502. Skyepony (Mod)
New Zealand~ Parts of the Waikato received a battering of hail during a violent storm which hit the region last night. As well as thunder and lightning and torrential downpours a hail storm struck in Hamilton and around the Waikato. The hail storm was most likely a one-off, say Metservice forecasters, with more settled weather likely today. Forecaster Hordur Thordarson told the Waikato Times that last night's impressive event was the result of warm, moist air at lower levels coming together with colder air higher up, creating an updraft and "when these things come together, the stage is set for some great convective thunderstorms and hail." As the warm air near the surface rose, colder air was drawn down, creating the sudden drop in temperature residents felt as the hailstorm hit. The hail was reportedly strong enough to crack a car windscreen at one Waikato house while another resident said it set a car alarm off. Ridge Mortensen in St Andrews said the hail sounded like "golf balls hitting the roof" while Paige Tarrant in Nawton described how her backyard was covered with hail.
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Quoting weatherh98:


why isnt it a depression
Doesn't have sustained convection.
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St. John's Int'l Airport
Date: 11:10 PM NDT Monday 10 September 2012
Condition: Light Drizzle
Pressure: 29.88 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 10 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 62.6°F
Dewpoint: 62.1°F
Humidity: 98 %
Wind: S 20 gust 29 mph


Tropical storm warning in effect

Hurricane watch in effect

Wind warning in effect.

Tonight Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers after midnight. Rain at times heavy beginning overnight. Wind south 30 km/h gusting to 50 except gusting to 70 along parts of the coast. Low 16. Tuesday Rain at times heavy ending in the morning then mainly cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Amount 20 to 30 mm. Wind southeast 80 km/h gusting to 100 except gusting to 120 along parts of the coast in the morning. Wind becoming northwest 50 gusting to 70 in the afternoon. High 22 with temperature falling to 16 in the afternoon. UV index 4 or moderate. Tuesday night Cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Clearing overnight. Wind northwest 30 km/h gusting to 50. Low 10.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pressure down 1 millibar, winds up 5 knots.

AL, 91, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 157N, 410W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


why isnt it a depression
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498. Skyepony (Mod)
Here is Michael today TRMM through the center, rain only on the south side..
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Pressure down 1 millibar, winds up 5 knots.

AL, 91, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 157N, 410W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
up and out

looks like the end of our twins been a long track for these two but finally moving on



10 mins old
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495. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your images did not show skye just a red x


I can see them..
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494. Skyepony (Mod)
91L today..click for smaller movie.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Except it's going to make landfall within the next few hours. Not enough time to weaken below hurricane status...not that 4 mph makes a difference anyways.

So then an extra-hurricane? lol. I know but its only called extra-tropical storm, right?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
your images did not show skye just a red x
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491. Skyepony (Mod)
There's a link to a smaller movie of 91L it was better than expected..
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Leslie ugly till the end.Hopefully those people don't experience Igor part 2 with her.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I question whether she's fully tropical.


SAB is still calling it tropical for the time being.

10/2345 UTC 40.8N 58.7W T2.5/2.5 LESLIE -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
evening TD how are ya
long time no type
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487. Skyepony (Mod)
91L lower appendage has a bit of rain.

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Quoting zoomiami:


Unfortunately not for a while. I am really tired of the 95 degree days. Both Sunday & today hit 97 in our little corner of Kendall. Its time for the dog days to be over.


it will soon miami


i got the heating people coming next week 17th
to service and get ready all the boilers
and fans for the winter season up on the roof
so it can be turned on when needed
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Quoting Thing342:
Leslie is a Hurricane once more, per ATCF.

AL, 12, 2012091100, , BEST, 0, 411N, 585W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 280, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LESLIE, D,

I question whether she's fully tropical.

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484. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM SANBA (T1216)
9:00 AM JST September 11 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanba (1004 hPa) located at 9.4N 134.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 12.0N 133.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 14.8N 133.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 17.1N 130.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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